Beating The Book with Gill AlexanderBeating The Book: 2025 Super Wildcard Weekend NFL MegaPod Betting Preview
Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and ClevTA, (ClevAnalytics.com) break down all of the Super Wildcard Weekend NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.
To check it down Man Wednesday, January twenty five, beating the book podcast for Super Wildcar weekend in the National Football League, Gil Alexander with the two staples of the show, can't believe the regular season is over. That's Will's line, but I really can't believe it. Todd wishing to bottom the bottom left, I guess for people from his mom's cork attic outside of Pittsburgh, PA. The star of the showtime Docuseriies Action and newly crowned megapod handicapping champion Todd Wishnet Take your bow.
Todd, I'll wait to do it properly. Thank you.
Will Hill in his Vikings Colors, although I think it says Los Angeles nonetheless Vikings fan. Do he knows he's doomed? He feels doomed. Will Hill everybody and not the Will Hill, the host of the Should Have Bet More podcast, part of the fare Best Podcast Empire at Fox Sports, where he and the upset of the Year managed to avoid scathing scandal this past week. Well done, Will, so far.
What's going on?
Guys love Wildcard Weekend. It is near the top of the list for in terms of the sports calendar. You know, March madness. You can just pick out your favorite days, your favorite sports, but Man, wildcard weekend is just about as good as it gets.
It is.
It is the best weekend, right. We got to college football one Thursday night, one Friday night semifinals, then two NFL games on Saturday, three on Sunday, one on Monday. It don't get no better than this.
I believe it. What you will, I'll soundly disagree with both of you. The football season is coming to an end, which is a very sad time for all humanity because we are going to have to wait months and months until it all comes back. A couple of games is very paltry and is not enough. Obviously. It's like having like a little here's your dinner. You're gonna get half a thing of mashed potatoes and like it not going to work.
I'm sorry, you know I feel that way after the division round, but we still have two more weeks of solid but I hear you. After that, the depression sets it.
It did hit home when Scott Hansen on the Red Zone Sunday late afternoon says we'll see in September as he signs off.
Wow, a long way away.
What Do you suppose a guy like that does the rest of the year.
I would still be thinking about that. Does he have another job? Does he anchor some of those shows? Because if not, Man's that's a pretty sweet gig.
He does w NBA Red Zones. Do you guys don't watch WNBA Red Zone?
Oh?
You're right, and now let's go live to the Seattle Storm beating the Mystic Holy Cow.
Who's your favorite w NBA player, Dodd? Who is it again?
Oh? I don't. I don't know anything about that league. I'll tell you, I don't know how to thinking about it.
The black box that you see is one of our favorite gets. Yes, Actually, to be honest with you, he was here early in the year. He's kind enough to do a playoff pod with us as well. Maybe the best NFL Twitter follow there is. He hates when I say that, but he's certainly up there in the conversation. Cleave ta courtesy of the Twitter machine. How you doing, man?
You can't see me, but I'm shaking my head. No on that one, I'm definitely not the best. I appreciate it though. It's the best I've looked on video, so you I appreciate it. But I do agree with Todd by the way, on this. I do agree with Todd like I like the potpourri of game. I like a bunch of games on at the same time. I don't care if it's I tweeted this two weeks don't get Titans Jags. Like everyone was complaining about Week seventeen that there's no good games. I said, you're gonna regret this in a few months. You're gonna be wishing you had Titans Jags. So as good as Wildcard weekend is, and it's great, it's just one game at a time. If it's a blowout early, then it just kind of you just sit there and wait for.
The next game.
And so I like having a bunch of games uh on at the same time, even if they're bad ones. But yeah, it's it's a good week on my block. Guys playing Friday, so hopefully, uh hopefully they got to win here. Uh look, I really need h really need a title in this uh in my it's been a while. Uh so looking forward to the weekend against Texas.
You're not one of these ten years.
It hasn't been that long.
Actually, it was about ten years ago. I was at that it was in Dallas actually where the Cotton bowls and uh.
Again the Oregon almost by the same score. They just beat him.
Yeah that was a that was a beatdown. But yeah, no, I know it's just more uh selfishly just before I feel like Ohio State, with all that talent, should have more than you know one every.
I was with all of the preseason predictions anyone made.
Cleave t A's Vikings are a sleeper and the way he laid it out was about as good as any So hat tip there.
What do you have get Kevin O'Donnell home for Coach of the Year to really sweep the board. We're worried about it, but we'll see. I appreciate.
What's your number? What's your number? Cleave? Twenty eight to one, twenty eight to one. That, by the way, I find this thinking ridiculous, but I should probably bring it up. Do you believe that the Vikings getting smacked by the Lions is going to change some voters votes on that?
If you had to guess, yes, just because that's just human nature of these voters. It's just how they think. That's why I someone mentioned that to me last week. I said, that's why I love to bet on these awards because it's if you just put yourself in the shoes of these voters, you can really kind of isolate what they look for. It I use all these historical patterns or the types of you know, I made fun of the whole Jared Goff MVP stuff because it's like, I know how people vote because we've got a pattern of thinking, and you know, what happens last really matters. Now I'm not saying it's going to sway all votes. You could still win. I mean he was a big favorite on FanDuel I saw last week, but uh or you know, after the game, but you know, you see it on Twitter. You see guys like Adam Schefter, and I think Bill Barnwell picked Campbell that you know they'll carry the water for these coaches, and the guy like Campbell is very well liked, so you know it is possible. I will say there are a handful of voters like Mina Chimes. She sent her voting prior to week eighteen, So that tells me that that has to be a Kevin O'Connell though, right, Like, there's no like you wouldn't send it in early unless you likely have O'Connell. So I do feel better about those. I wish I had knew how many actually centers in early, because then I can kind of count those as kind of almost all KOC, if not all, but the ones that held on and waited, you know, might might might be swayed here. We'll see. You just never know with some of these, some of these voters. But I think it's gonna be close.
I love Mina, but I wish you wouldn't turn it in early.
I wish I don't understand why, you know, what's what's the reasoning. I'm not really sure I get it unless just kind of get off your desk, but I don't. I mean, you've got a responsibility just wait for all the games.
Are you one of these Ohio state fans that even if they win the national championship, you're gonna be like, yeah, well we didn't beat Michigan.
No, I'm a complete opposite of that. The national titles all that matters. I mean, the rivalry is great. Hate Michigan, but it's different than it was, you know, you know, ten twenty years ago or even just a couple of years ago. And there's no playoff because that's all it was if you lost to Michigan, you couldn't win the title. So they go hand in hand. Whether the old John Cooper days, he had great, great rosters, he had Eddie, George, Orlando Pays. It's just you know, on and on, and he couldn't beat Michigan, and so they would always end up with, you know, one one loss or two losses and go to the Citrus Bowl and couldn't win the title. So it was major disappointment back then. But now you know, okay, stinks that you lost to them, but you could still win the title, and that's that should be the ultimate goal.
Todd wishinge, is it time yet to take your bow?
Sure we could talk about that. I don't mind. We can talk about that. I mean I could talk a little bit more about why Ohio State, who lost to Michigan, is a little bit overrated. I think at this point, just because of their big win. I think people are sleeping on the fact that Ohio State looked so amazing against Oregon. They're just they're just cruising for a bruising. As my dad used to say, too much Ohio State love. In my opinion, same.
Thing with the Raids.
I agree the line is.
Definitely I had made I made the Ohio State line three and a half, so I do think it's definitely a flate at five and a half six. I just would never I mean, obviously I would never bet my against my own team right now, but I also wouldn't stand in front of that train. You never know, like when you get to these playoff situations, a team with the most talent, you know, rises to the top, and you know it's not it's just like Yukon last year in hoops, it's you just don't want to stand in front of that train, even though your season long numbers might say otherwise.
So you talent cleve, Yukon showed why they were a train. I don't think Ohio State was a train this year. They lost to Michigan and they weren't that impressive. I you know, everybody's oh the house State, they're so great, Oh that receiver is amazing. They're not that great.
But Yukon wasn't dominant in the regular season last year. If I recalled, like they did have some stumbles, they were good. Well, they were kind of waiting the tournament. So that's the only reason why I sit down. But I agree, like Ohio State definitely has hiccups, and Texas up front, their problem is you know, up the middle. Their offensive line is and issue with multiple injuriespecially at center, so you know that could be an issue. I just I don't believe in Quinn yours and I think they're gonna you know, they lost twice at Georgia. Didn't look great, you know, against the only real defense they faced, So I think this is going to be a tough task. But I agree. I mean, the lines inflated. I just wouldn't stay in front of them.
I don't like Sarcoso. Sark is terrible.
All right, some of us have another podcast TB alone.
Sorry, oh, we gotta get the other cub Okay, so let's just talk about the records. The final records are info and for the second time in three years. If you're scoring and oh, the champion and unbelievable picker of the year, that's Big Tea with a thirty one and twenty three record. If you all remembered going into last week, Gilly needed ah to two for me and A two and oh bim because we were both matched on the Kansas City Chiefs and there was no cheating folks. I texted the picks to Willy early. We all texted early. Wait didn't happen? Why didn't it happen? Because I told you it was going to be cold in Pittsburgh, and was it cold in Pittsburgh. It was freezing at Pittsburgh. And an easy winner. And then the other easy winner as well, the over in Tampa Bay. What wasn't so easy? But anyways, with all that said, I have to take kudos now, granted it wasn't the season that Gilly had last year. Look, I can be a grateful winner. Last year's season by Gil Alexander was one for the record books. We may never see it in our lifetimes again. At thirty five eighteen and one last year, that is quite outstanding, no doubt. But a solid thirty one and twenty three for the w I'll take it on the teaser world. Gilly five twelve and one, Willie seven nine and two looked like he was gonna win the teaser championship, but he doesn't because I come out of nowhere to win the teasers as well at eight and ten by percentage points that the guest at seven and eleven, so a double champion.
Let me let me comment about your win. Your win, by the way, you beat me by a game and a half because we both went to and zero on our other two picks. So you beat me by a game and a half this year. Two years ago, you beat me by a half game because I had a pick in the tomorrow Hamblin game. So you end up winning on percentage. I would argue, I'm gonna give your props here. I would argue that your what was your record this year?
Thirty one and one, thirty one and twenty three, thirty one and twenty three.
You're thirty one and twenty three this year, in a year that was tougher than last year by most people's accounts, might be just as good as my thirty five seventeen eighteen thirty.
Five eighteen and one. Will never be, will never be, you know that will never.
But it's still but it's still very You still ended up with a really good record in a year where most people got beat. So kudos Todd Wish, nev everybody Todd Wish more than just a jokester.
You know, it's funny because I think that too, Like, man, what a tough year it was, But you could also look at it the other way, and I was like, yeah, it's just pretty straightforward, like the better teams won, the better teams covered for most.
Of the year.
So it is interesting how you can look at it both ways.
You will calling you a yeah, I not want to say it, but you know, a square ball maybe is what.
By the way, Cleve, it makes sense that he would say that. But if if we go back and research the data. Okay, most of my wins came on the back of excellent over undercalls, not on just blindly betting favorites. I have very few favorite it's actually with my thirty one and twenty three. So as usual, a poor job by my good friend will Hill trying to cast dispersions on my championship and call.
All of the credit is all the accolades are deserved. Congratulations, no dispersions.
I want to give a shout out Shooter Shooter mcgamblin on Twitter. Shooter mcgamblin, that is your real name.
I know you're gonna say.
Shooter mcgamblin took very very clean and precise notes on not just our Dumbo of the Week winners for the whole year, but he did all of our Dumbo of the Week nominations. Who do you believe ended up with double the nomination six? Ream raheem rem no, No, I was surprised by this.
Oh give me one second to think about it. So double the nominations of anyone else.
The number one person who had the most most nominations had six during the course of the year. Double Matt ebberflus'es three.
So it's not Tomlin. I'll say Mike Tomlin.
No, and I have a good guess.
Okay, what you there?
You go?
I was gonna say Antonio Pierce, like no, sorry, yeah, peer, peers.
Apologize, skip out of my mouth. Antonio Pierce with six and just a couple of highlights. I'm talking talking about this on the radio side this morning.
Billy. There's multiple fourth downs in a game, so he had so many opportunities.
Uh, you pick your favorite. Week one, Raiders fourth and one at the Chargers forty three, down six with seven to fifteen to go, he decides to punt or Week seven might be my favorite. Ten to eleven left, they're down eight to the Uh who are they playing? Down?
Eight?
The Rams fourth and goal at the Rams nine with two fifty to go, down eight. He kicks the twenty seven yard field goal. That's the winner. That's the moment.
My favorite because I had I had the Raider in that game.
I said, he's he's playing to cover.
He's my favorite coach. He was for one week. I fleeed on him.
I believe he did it a couple of times. Actually there were a number of times that he kicked field goals to cover the spread.
Anyway, I appreciate Shooter mcgambillan doing this this last week. By the way, dumble of the week had to be Matt Lafleur. Right, we agree on that Packers had the ball, they get that fumble, that ridiculous fumble that the Bears are just running out the clock. But then DJ Moore gets hit he fumbles, so the Packers are set up at the Bears forty three with one forty nine left. Malik will Is still in the game. Then one p thirty one left in the game, the Packers run the ball on second and four. Keep in mind there down to instead of draining all the clock and using one of their three timeouts which they had in pocket, the Packers snapped the ball with fifteen seconds on the play clock on third and two with one oh five on the clock. Then they call time out with fifty eight seconds. They don't let it bleed, and Lafleur would later say they were deciding whether to go ford or not. So fourth and fourth the Chicaga thirty seven. They elected to try at McMahons fifty five yard field goal, which miraculously goes through, but the Bears get the ball back with fifty four seconds left and Caleb Williams magic ends up getting the Bears in field goal position and they win. Matt Lafleur, You're Dumble of the week. I don't think there's a but that is.
So obviously horrible that you have to sometimes start to shake your head and go, how is this possible? It doesn't seem possible at this point some of these for I remember shaking our heads at something else earlier in the year. You're just like, this can't be for real.
You know.
It was almost like there was was unbelievable, Pierce.
Thing is was it when the flour threw the ball up thirty four to nothing in the fourth quarter of what was the score on that.
Same No that was remember that that was just him being lane Lane kiff On the floor. But for instance, I'll give you an example. We're watching that bowl game and on three consecutive plays there's a question of whether a touchdown was scored or not. I think it was the Texas State Bowl game, and there was no reviews. There was on a single review. I've watched college football. I watched eight million games, that's an exact number, eight million games. I have never seen them not review three plays in a row that were clearly reviewable, every single one of them. And Gilly was losing his mind because I believe he had Texas State regularly and they weren't reviewing the plays. And I'm like, now, I'm starting to wonder what. Then we had the whole fiasco in New Orleans where the clock all of a sudden stopped when it's not supposed to stop because the ref forgot the rules. Some of these things are getting so egregious that I'm starting to have very sinister thoughts.
The text, I know what you're getting at the Texas State thing in the non reviews was the first time I ever decided maybe those you know, the fix the rigged crowd, maybe they're not so crazy after all. Like I was like, what the what the fuck is this right?
Like?
How is this not being reviewed? I would say it on the on the radio side this morning about you know so so Mike Rabel is out there, right, and what's a better job? The Patriots are the Raiders. I was sort of tossing that around, but I got to if you are a GM or an owner, isn't the only quality, Like if you're searching for a new head coach, for me, I don't care if what your x's and o's expertise is. I think you can delegate that, like I think I think Rufus said it. You know, the CEO model not so bad for a coach. For a head coach, I just want to know that you, as the head coach, know how to think your way out of in game situations. And Vrabel has shown that right. Remember he did the uh he exploited that loophole in the rule where if you take the delay of game if you're up over five.
Years at Belichick's trick against him. Belichick wasted a meaningless game against the Jets, and Belichick was smirking he likes sticking it to the Jets. It was like Week three, ro up thirty to nothing, Meanwhile, Rabel says, all right, I'll use your check against you in the playoffs and it was really effective.
That's all I want to know. That's that's all you need. That you're my coach, and the rest can fall into play. And I think, I think these these oders and these gms outthink themselves past that stuff because of all this ship we see week to week of how dumb what Todd's talking about, how dumb these guys can be when it comes to just the stuff that we find obvious.
But some of it Gilly is just dumb. And then there's stuff that you have to start shaking your head like there's dumb, and then there's like, come on, now, what are you talking about? Seriously? Like this flafloor thing you're talking but he hasn't been at the end of that. Guy's actually a pretty good coach. He doesn't know the you know, when Raheem Morris screws it up. Okay, I understand you could looking at him on the sidelines, he looks like a deer in the headlights and he doesn't know what he's doing. Every week to week, same thing with Antonio. But some of these guys are good coaches, and you know, I mean, wasn't there. I don't know it Just some of this stuff is getting a little too sketchy for him me, you know, And I'm starting to wonder, I'm starting to make Look, not all conspiracy theories are true, of course, but if one out of ten of them is, that's still pretty big deal, you know what I mean. I'm not like, what was this? What was the answer on the Saints in the Saints game? Because the ref doesn't know that all of a sudden, the ref doesn't know the rules with nine seconds? But what are you talking about? We made a mistake. You didn't make a mistake. What are you talking about? You never made a mistake.
Todd is referring to Jalen McMillan caught a deep pass from Baker Mayfield on the fourth and long. He then mimicked the gunfire and they flagged him.
No, I wasn't talking about that, No Saints. Oh yeah, go ahead.
Yeah. And so after that play, this is what I think you're talking about. You tell me if I'm wrong. After that, they moved the ball back because of the because of that penalty, and the refs called it first in goal from the twenty four for like five minutes. They couldn't figure out that it was first and ten, and we literally even the announcers like, what is wrong with him? You can't do it. So I was talking.
About that, but it's another great example of you don't even know the rules. I was talking about how the guy at the one yard line in the Saints Redskins game stopped the clock for four seconds, three or four seconds for no reason. I mean that one, to me is so egregiously ridiculous. What what is an explanation? We made a mistake. That's not an explanation. What is the explanation the guy's waving his hands to stop the call? Because why you're not reffing a college game? What is it? Did you did you think you were reffing a college There's not even explanation given.
The bigger thing. And I want to give Will credit because I think Will was the first on text to bring this up, which is someone needs to do an expose on replay Assist. When did it arrive in our lives? We were not informed that it was arriving in our lives. And to this day, I can't tell you what it can review and what it can't because the simplest things like oh, the play clock went to zero, can't review that, you know. So it's just it's all so dump and we're still in.
Judgment calls. And I gotta tell you, I can't wait till next I think they're gonna they're gonna add this because they talked about it. There's been so many of them missed face face masks, Like it's the most obvious. It's not a judgment call, it's not pass interference, it's not holding. It's either you grab a face mask or you don't. And there's been so many missed face masks that they're gonna they're gonna add it next year, they said to the replay assists, because I don't understand that, Like that just makes no sense to me that you can't. You mean the Donald remember Donald in the end zone arth the rams, My whole face mask completely flipped around, and they couldn't even like, how do you not just say, all right, it's a face move screwed up so again this week till they are adding those things and it's not worth it this.
Week, right, Like, I mean, that was part of my thing. Everybody's saying, you know, Detroit crushed the Vike, and they did in the end on the scoreboard, but for three quarters I could have argued, I don't know the This is kind of a confluence of events that have all gone Detroit's way. One of those is the referee category, which is they missed that face mask on Darnald deep in their own territory, and then right after that the next quarter, the intentional grounding in the end zone. Right there was whether there was that the face mask you bring you bring up as one of them. Then Darnald threw eight, you know, eight overthrows in the first half. So I mean, good on Detroit for stopping them, but is that going to be sustainable if they if they have the same thing happened again, I don't know. And just I just think there was a lot of stuff, the fact that you come away with only what six points and four red zone appearances. There was more that I listed the other day, but there's a bunch of that. So I don't think it's like all doom and gloom for Vikings. Fans switch the subject. But you brought it up with the face mass so made me think.
Of does cleve ta Cleive do you agree with me that we're getting a more wwefication. And I'll just give one other example the Texas Georgia game where they called pass inefference and then pick announce the penalty, then picked up the flag. I've never seen them announce a penalty and go whoops, do over our fault? My fault? Why because the people were throwing things. I mean, we're getting to a WWE ification in this sports, this college and the pro football that that to me is getting very worrisome. Do you agree with this?
I don't know.
I mean, I think there's always been a horrible you know, referee mistakes. I mean, think about the Saints' Rams, the past interference that they didn't call that led to the Rams going to the Super Bowl. Like there are there are things that you know, I probably don't even think about, but I understand what you're saying. I think there is more pressure on referees because of things like social media and Twitter, and you know, they get death threats now and obviously with the gambling and player props like this, just constant flow of that. So it may seem like there is something to that, just because of all these pressures and all these different forces outside, and maybe you just notice it because you have a bet on a game, or because you better player prop or in game or whatever that may you might not have had a few years ago. I don't know. I'm not sure I can I can get to that point because maybe I just don't want to tell myself that we're ever at that point where there's anything shady going on. But you know, it's just it feels like it's been like this forever. Uh, And maybe it's just pointed out more because of social media and you see anytime there's any major mistake, you see a clip on it right away posted. Maybe in the past you might not have so that that could be skewing things some jacket.
I'm gonna translate that todd.
Many times.
I get it.
I get it. It's just that I feel like it's been like there's been some horrible calls in the past too that I said, maybe we just didn't see a light of day because there was no Twitter or wasn't you know, it wasn't blasted on social media as much. But you know, you might be really I don't know. I, like I said, I'm just maybe I'm just blind to it because I don't want it to be like that.
How many times has Todd brought up that one play where they where they picked up the flag in that Alabama?
He likes that one. You love Texas, Texas, Georgia.
I think Georgia.
Never happened. It has never happened in the history of sports. That a penalty. Not not we picked up the flag. That's happened a million times, announced the flag, announce the penalty. It's a penalty. The guy gets him, he goes oh first, down the whole thing, and then haven't have a talk about it and decide to pick up I've never seen it. It's never happened. I've watched every single game. It has never happened.
He's got the left hand.
I think, to summarize Todd's point in a different way, we all watch a lot of games. I don't know if anyone watches more games than Todd. If you watch a lot of games, man, you'll see some strange ship refs calls. You know, game theory and you name it. You see a lot of stuff.
I'm with you, Todd. Texas State and North Texas the most inexplicable thing we've seen all year, the single.
Most they didn't review three different plays that happened back to back. What the replay like machine not work? What the hell is going on? And nobody cared. Nobody cared because it was like, Okay, it's just some stupid bowl that nobody's Well I cared about it too, But I'm just saying anyways.
All right, are we at the records or do you have an in game you wanted.
To say we did? We did the records. I mean, I have nothing to say about my in game other than maybe it's a bad idea to bet these teams that are winning by a lot to not score anymore when I lost to Tanner McKee and uh Trubisky last week. So I didn't make that mistake again this week because that's another thing that I guess been changing. Gilly kept them telling me it's changing. Teams are running up the score and stuff. So we're getting a running up the scorification that never used to happen as well. But you know, I don't really have any any great in game insights.
Can two thousand and seven Patriots. Does nobody remember the two thousand.
And seven Patriots, Yeah, we do, But it happened early in the fourth quarter but anyways.
He did a whole deep dive on it all the way. One last thing before we get to the bets. And by the way, it's only two bets per weekend. Yeah, two bets for Super Wildcar Weekend per person plus your teaser. This has nothing to do with betting, but I need to know because my head was exploding and Ta, maybe you can help me out on this. The Browns get by the way, that's another thing of the Bravens. Covering that twenty point spread was just amazing. And if you were on the Brown side, you were probably pissed about it.
But because you and that was a great example of exactly what I was just talking about in the old days, that would never happen.
Never happened. But the Brave, But the Braves, the Browns. The Drive they scored the touchdown on. You will remember there was a play earlier in the Drive where it appeared that Thrash Jamari Thrash of the Browns scored a touchdown earlier in that drive. Didn't it a mattering even the touchdown, did? Remember? He seemingly caught the ball before he got into the end zone. He crossed the plane and then he got the ball knocked out of his hands. Okay, I lost my mind because I have watched five bajillion NFL foot and I get their explanainis their explainations, Oh, you have to carry it through, you have to carry it through the catch, you have to survive the ground, whatever it is. When has that ever been the case through the plane of the goal one? When I have literally had conversations with Mike carry, former NFL referee in person talking about this thing, and even he and he's like, yeah, I know, it doesn't make sense because, as Tod pointed out, if you're six yards in the end zone, you catch the ball and someone bats it out of your hand before you establish or or make it whatever it is, that's not a catch.
We all get that.
But there's this magic powder of the plane that they always you know, in a very inconsistent way, or like, well, no, but you cross the plane, doesn't matter what happens afterwards, and suddenly this wasn't a touchdown? Am I wrong about this? Ta?
No? I agree, And yeah, the whole end zone situation is so weird. It's so different than the rest of the field because, yeah, like you said, once you cross the plane, doesn't matter what happens the moment you cross the plane. As long as you get over it, there should be a touchdown. And so he did have possession and he went forward and then you know, he lost possession after he went he crossed the line. So yeah, I wasn't sure I understood that one either, But I'm with you. I mean, was what was the des Bryant situation against the Packers in the playoff game? Wasn't that something similar where like you, I don't think in the end zone was trying to remember went to the ground.
Yeah, yeah, there was the famous one. I don't read Redskins Tampa Bay. There was a famous one. I think Phil Simms's kid to somebody in the back of the end zone. He didn't he caught it in the end zone and then he didn't survive the ground. That was a but, But that's really what you're talking about. You're saying that if you catch the ball in the end zone, you don't survive the ground. Okay, no problem, go back. You didn't do it. Now you're saying a whole different thing, which is catch catch the ball, or supposedly catch the ball the one or two yard line and not complete because like, for instance, what would you say if the guy caught it at the three, did the exact same thing fell down at the one, he didn't break the plane right and didn't survive the ground, you would say incomplete, right and compel right.
But the I'll give you, I'll give you the like a precedent for it, because you're right about the Tampa Bay Washington last. Yeah, great point, God, let me finish.
The fuck you didn't let me finish. You didn't let me.
Jesus, you're right about the Tampa Bay Washington game, which was the Sean Taylor spit game right with the and I think it was a manual burta manual burda manual was who was the receiver. But we had the Calvin Johnson precedent before that. We were like, oh no, that's not the l In the super Bowl, the New Orleans Indianapolis super Bowl, Drew Brees through a two point conversion of Lance Moore. Lance Moore caught the ball outside of the end zone, turned across the plane, and then as he crossed back out of it, got the ball knocked out of his hand. They said, two point conversion counts. How was this different.
No, I'm not arguing with you. I'm just saying, just saying, those are the pregents that play happens so unlike I don't think that's the only time you can come up with him, because you really don't see it that often. Because remember, it has to happen exactly this way, where the guy catches it barely outside of the end zone then didn't survive the ground out in the out of bounds outside the endzone. It's such a weird play that rarely happens that we don't even remember any other than that one you just brought up, which is a great bring up, but you know.
Was the ball can hit the ground as long as you have control over it, which was not rolled that way at the time. And then actually put the two thousand rams in the Super Bowl, and what was like, ah, what was the final score? That can be thirteen to eight or like some weird baseball score. I can look it up, but that was like, hey, you can the ball can touch the ground. It used to be if the ball touches the grounds at all on a pass incomplete automatic. Now the rules if you have control over it can touch the ground.
I believe I have that right, Yeah, it's I don't know. One of these playoff games, something's going to happen. We're all going to be like, really, that's that now, you know? Anyway, I just find it amazing. We can watch five billion games and we still have no idea what's a catch?
Well, in the Megapod three years ago, there was never a case where somebody picked a game, or a guy almost died from a heart attack and didn't get a win or loss, so he had one last pick. So we went to the Megapod rules. It was very simple. It's clearly states that percentage wins, and we had an answer because we are saying humans, whereas the rest of the world has completely lost its mind, including the National Football League.
You guys, want to guess what the score was NFC Championship Game two thousand.
Thirteen to eight? You were correct, thirteen to nine.
You want to be here all day. I don't think anyone's going to get it.
Like five five? It was eleven to five? Thing?
Nope, was it?
What was? But I would never have gotten that eleven to six. I knew the game I.
Was talking about. It wasn't the game I was talking about. I was talking about a game with Phil Simms's Yeah, Phil's sick of Tampa and he threw a touch down the back of the end zone. Again, that's that's the one you're talking about, Gilly, and that's one. It had all the controversy, and that kind of led to a whole new thing along with the whole Dez Bryant thing.
So I remember though, because of the Calvin Johnson thing. I remember saying at the time, I was like, that's not a catch because I was a Skins fan watching, you know, hoping desperately it wasn't. But I was like, that's not a catch because of Calvin Johnson. That's the last playoff game the Washington Redskins franchise. It's the last playoff game the Skins have won. Gibbs two point zero. I believe it was Brunel was a.
Brunel and they played decently.
I remember they almost covered against Seattle the next week. I was in high school and I think like Santana Moss dropped a touchdown late that would have covered for him and Seattle ended up winning. That was the Seattle team that went to the Super Bowl. But they played Seattle pretty tough. Yeah, the next week, for man twenty years. Jeez, dude, are almost amazing amazing?
Yeah? What what? What a time to be a Skins fan. You thought we had a death sentence with the worst owner alive, and now Jayden Daniels has turned everything around. All right? Two best bets cider total Ta, we start with your first.
Yeah, so I don't I took this. It was a little bit higher, but I like the Washington Tampa speaking of Washington, Washington Tampa under I think that's at fifty, right.
What do you guys have? I have forty nine and a half and fifty and a half? What do you guys have?
Fifties?
Good?
Is that?
Okay?
Fifty bitty Okay.
We'll call it fifty. It's a key number, so fifty is fine. Yeah. I just you know, I know that both of these teams are you know, high octane offenses in the regular season. I just think this is a really this is a really high total historically when you look at the playoff round, you know, the wildcard round. I mean we go back again. It's a little caveat because this is obviously a warmer climate, but just there's been fifteen outdoor wildcard games in two thousand, where the total has been at least forty seven and a half and thirteen have gone under. It just shows you, like, you can't really use regular season data for these playoff games. And you obviously got a rookie quarterback in Jamee Daniels. As great as he is, there's a lot that has to go right here. You know he's going to have some jitters. Just is what it is. Yeah, Todd Bowles, their run defense has been Tampa's run defense is number one in the NFL over the back half of this year. We know Washington as good of an offense it is. They really just rely on the run game, especially on early downs, to get them in these third and fourth and shorts to convert. But they're not a really explosive offense. They're one of the lower lowest explosive pass offenses, especially in the back half of the year where teams are starting to figure out Daniels a little bit on that end. I mean, he just creates so many plays with his legs, but he's not pushing the ball down the field as much as he was early in the season, So you got a little bit less than the explosive pass route. A lot more running from Washington. You know, Tampa has got some issues in the secondary, which is a little a little scary for me. Antoine Winfield should be back this week, Jamal Dean, I'm not so sure at corner. But again, outside of Terry McLaurin, there's really nobody else that scares you outside for Washington, So it's not like you need, you know, four or five great corners here to slow this team down. And then the other side of the ball, as great as Baker's been, you know that they have had some luck. They are, you know, one of the top teams in the NFL when it comes to red zone. They don't make mistakes, you know, very very limited number of turnovers, especially in the red zone. I think the lowest rate of kind of unsuccessful red zone plays when it comes to miss field goals, turnovers and miss four down So you know, some of that, like you know, will tend to regress, especially when you get to the playoffs. I just I have this number at forty nine, So it's just a small small amount of value and you don't get much value in it in playoff game, especially with a limited sample. So to me, this is just more of a you know, just kind of a play on a number that I think is just too high for a playoff game in the fifties.
Under Skins and Bucks primetime on Sunday as it should be, Dotty, what are you going.
Now?
I'm a little nervous to be honest after leave Da took the under, but I'm going over over clean. I hate to do it, especially because I respect your opinion, but I like, sorry, Well, sometimes even great people can be wrong. Sometimes. Look at you, Willie, a great guy, just listens like yourself, and you've been wrong on some things. I don't want to talk about summer leagues, but whatever, here's what I'm going to say. What you're saying, Cleeve, And you're right, it is playoffs. It's a different ball. But this Tampa Bay defense is so horrendous. It's horrendous. They were Okay, there's a guy named Spencer Rattler. You may not have heard of him, but he is not an NFL quarterback. He's moving the ball up and down the field in the game. Tampa Bay absolutely has to have like blood and he's moving the ball up and downing on them. He's not an NFL quarterback. Okay, Now, the guy who's playing quarterback in Washington is an NFL quarterback. In fact, I would argue he's the biggest sensation there is right now. The guy. First of all, if he's not throwing as well as he did earlier in the year, we'll all grant you that since the injury has been saying. But if it's third and seven, he just runs out of there and scrambles for a first down. You can't stop this. It's it's maddening betting against him. I'll tell you that. So I just don't see how Tampa Bay is going to stop him. And then on the other side of the ball, I'm not impressed with Washington's defense. First of all, were they trying last week against Trey Lance, who's throwing third and seven outs? Oh a third and seven, yeah, no pressure, a first down, first down, Oh oh, here comes Dowdell for seventeen yards. Here comes some other guys, schooner Maker. They're making up names on the sidelines and they're bringing them in and they're just running for yardage against this red skinste I don't like anything about this Washington defense. Now, Gilly will tell you, He'll try to sell you something about their defense oh, it's this one and it's eighth. When you when the moon is out and the rain is this way and the sun is this way, it's the eighth best. Or you know, he comes up with stories and tell you about this team. They're not good on defense. Cut it out, Okay, they're just not and Tampa Bay is good on offense. So I am very scared to make this pick because leave Ta. I respect his opinion, but I have to do it. I'm sorry over fifty in Tampa Bay.
Wow, oppo oppo to start?
No, I get it, I will say so. You tell me, Uh Gil is Tyler Baddish? Is he playing this week? Do you know?
I do not know.
I do not know because he's missed. He missed last week and he missed the game against New Orleans not coincidence. They allowed thirteen sacks for Jada, to Jade and Daniels in those two games without him. If he doesn't play, that that's that's problems versus Vinovea and that that defensive front. So that that's you know, that's my issue is just this Washington offense, as great as it is, just it's not the same in the second half of the year and it's a running offense, and you can't run on Tampa at all, so you're gonna force Daniels to throw it. He's not a guy who's gonna drop back fifty times and air it all out like this is not really his game. He's more of a you know, he does it with his legs and short passes. So anyway, I understand. It's just trust me. I'm I'm a little bit nervous about this one, but we got we got to pick something, so I agree with they haven't been as good lately.
However, I just can't This Tampa defense is a joke to me.
Skins are optimistic that Marshawn Lattimore as a go though.
Yeah that's the other that's Mike Evans's biggest rival.
Right yep, mm hmm. Could be huge.
By the way, I heard the ref that that stops the clock. Also at the end of the game, he's going to be working this thing too, so that could helpfully over too, just in case we need some points at the end.
Driving a very nice car by the way, I don't know if that's related, but he has a very nice car.
Hm hm m.
We got Willie.
I haven't picked this team much this year, but I'm picking them now. I am going to take the Washington commanders plus the three.
Yeah.
I just don't believe that Tampa is much better than them.
I don't know that they're better than them at all. I know Aaron shots at his DV away where he's got Washington ahead of Tampa. I do buy into some of Gillies. You could call it propaganda. That's maybe not the worst word. I don't think their defense is that bad.
I think Daniel all I said was they're middling. They're not as horrific Hod makes them out.
And I don't think that's what you said. I think what you said, well, on November twenty seventh, when it's a Wednesday and it's the sun comes up before seven o'clock in the morning, they're seventh against the run on those type of days, so that clearly makes a difference.
According to Dvoa, I just like the points here. I think these teams are relatively even. I think Daniels is a star. I don't think the Washington defense is at bad and look at New Orleans, look at Tampa recently. Life and Death with New Orleans could have easily lost that game Okay, Washington was two a few weeks ago, but they lost to Dallas and Cooper rush on that Sunday, congrats, you won the NFC South. You beat the Saints and the Panthers and the Falcons, who the Falcons swept them, by the way. So I'm just not a believer in Tampa. I don't know that they have a great home field advantage. I will take the three here. Obviously, love the three and a half. I could easily see this being a field goal game the way. But give me Washington plus three.
Let's go. I'm on the Rams. I bet them plus three early in the week.
He loves they now. The only thing he loves more than Washington is the Rams. He loves the Rams. You love the Rams a bit minute.
I have a feeling I can't get it out of my head that somehow the Rams might get to the super Bowl and not shake this feeling.
Rams plus one is is that what we're doing? Rams plus one?
Yeah? I mean I yeah, Rams, I just yeah, plus the inbody but plus one. I like the Rams. I do think that that game. While Donald should not be judged as a whole for you know, body of work for the season, but that gave me a little bit of a spooky feeling about Sam Donald. And I think the Lions provided a blueprint right where they're like, oh, you take you get more than three seconds to throw the football, more than anybody else in the NFL on average, Why don't we blitz and we'll gamble that our guys will get to you before our Manda Man coverage breaks down. And I think the Rams have the secondary components to do that, and I think they have the defense to do that, and I think they're gonna follow that. And I think they beat the Vikings, which I gotta say, Man fourteen and three, Like, if you asked the question who's got the most pressure on this week, maybe it's Lamar Jackson in the Ravens, but I think it's the Vikings fourteen and three in a flame out would be bad. And I think that's what happened.
Already beat him once, So it's not so crazy.
No, it's not crazy at all.
Do you know what's crazy about that that first game.
They blitz.
I mean, obviously Flora's blitz is a ton. I think they blitzed Stafford like thirty five, like normal. Not a single pressure on those Blitzer, not one. You can believe that. I couldn't believe that when I saw that that you blitz all that. I mean, that's that's just a testament to McVeigh and just that they get the ball of his hands quick. They run the you know those quick screens to Nikua and I think you can see a lot of the same thing. I don't know if it's gonna work, but yeah, it's crazy that he got blitzed what twelve times in zero pressures on those woods, So that's gonna happen again. Then, yeah, the Vikings defense has.
No shot Sea. Let me take a half time in our bets. Let me ask you if you had to vote for these awards now, I want to go through who you would vote for. I know you have bets. You got Kevin O'Connell twenty eight to one. You got other bets. But if you had a vote right now, let's go through Coach of the Year, you would give two.
I'd give it to O'Connell, just exceeding expectations.
I agree, Okay, Comeback Player of the Year.
We talked about it. It's to me it's slam dunk Burrow, Burrow. I don't think yeah, I gotta tell you so real quick, can I Can I just mention one thing because I heard these You had Jonathan on and he was making the case about kind of the other circumstances with Darnold with the award.
Oh JVT Jonathan on Tobo, Yeah, JVT.
Yeah. And I was gonna rip my hair out because he asked me the same thing on Twitter. I said, well, you know, to me, like they leave that open for interpretation, but like I just think, like like a baseline for that is okay, Let's say God forbid something like a Shavarius Ward with his daughter right passing away unexpectedly, you miss maybe half a season something like that, or your wife or your daughter has you know, an illness and you have to take time away and you miss a season something like that. To me, that's what that means. And when you come back from from something, that means you had to have already established something. You had to have already been good to come back to it, right, so you're already good, you get hurt or you're bad, and then you come back to being good again. If Carson Wentz signs with the team next year and has a Darnold season, he should win Comeback Player of the Year because he didn't come back from sucking. He was already good, had some down years and came back never good. What is he coming back from just being just being on the bench. That's what I don't understand. By definition, comeback means you're coming back to something that was already good. So anyway, it drives me insane.
But I think Burrow.
I'm actually kicking myself for not betting Burrow last week I plus money because I just you know, I wanted the Vikings to win. I want him to do well because of Koc. But that was I thought that was a great opportunity that passing up.
They changed the guidelines. They changed the guidelines for Comeback Player of the Year clearly because they were a little embarrassed that Hamlin didn't win it. So other circumstances clearly is not intended for the player that does not have it's not special other circumstances. They should have a most improved player.
It would solve everything, just just wells and then that's it.
Aaron was on the show this morning and he says that's what's coming, that there's going to be a most improved player award maybe next year in large Yeah, well, but at least it was.
Pretty straightforward. I mean, you're voting on one of these retread quarter packs that were bad historically and had had a big year. It's pretty obvious, you know, it's a clear delineation from you know, coming back from an injury. By the way, Borrow, Everyone's like that was like not a a major injury. Do you remember in the off season they're saying, no one's ever had a quarterback has never deal with that wrist injury before he couldn't grow up a football. There was a lot of question mark. So I disagree with with that notion too.
All right, let's hear it, MVP.
Wait before you go to MVP, before he goes to MVP, don't you have to say that the Joe Burrow comeback was the greatest comeback in the history of the National Football League, eclipsing Nat Moore in nineteen eighty seven from the DVOA statistics. You have to say it without laughing. You have to say it like you were at the Davos, you know conference or something.
You know.
Josh all Josh Allen, I just to me, he's the most feared, like he's just taking you know, as great as Lamar has been in his stats are awesome. And you got Derrick Henry, you know, you got Say Flowers. Who does I mean?
Who?
I mean?
The Bills have nothing. I mean, think about what we were talking about before the season. Everybody was projecting Buffalo to have a down year, not make the playoffs. It's a rebuild, and he's taken a bunch of you know, let's be Frank, Nobody's at receiver, and he's turned them into one of the elite offenses. I just think this is his year. I mean, Lamar is great, but and I do think there's some voter fatigue to vote a guy a third time when there's another great candidate there with a better record. So I think it's Josh Allen.
I agree that if you take it, or if you remove this player from the team, I agree it would be it should be Josh Allen because I don't know if the Bills win three games. But I do think that fatigue is not a good enough reason, and I think that it would take a well, it would take just my prediction on the award, more than I think Alan Alan should win.
But I think when you're predicting you.
I do think if you have a player with and I don't. By the way, I have no idea who's gonna win. I think it's a coin flip. If I'm if I'm guessing what the which way the voters go. I think it's a complete coin flip. I just object to the the Allen fringe that says, oh, it's over. It's absolutely alan. It's like, wait a minute, this guy had the fourth highest passer rating of all time, forty one and four. No one's ever done more than forty and fewer than five picks. He leads in QBR in you know all these other stats, quarter touchdown percentage, air yards, net air yards, on and on and on and on. It's like four thousand passing, nine hundred rushing never been done before. Like at some point, it's so overwhelming where you're like, uh, okay, maybe I shouldn't be that fifteen. Well.
The only thing is, you know EPA, which some people care about, some people don't. But it's it's kind of an all in one metric, advanced metric that I mean, he leads. Josh Allen is number one in that metric. So in terms of like value points, added, because what he does more than anybody is on third and fourth thounds, you can't stop him, like it's it's a guaranteed first down, and he's just been impossible to stop. And as great I said, as great as Lamar is, like you know, when you're piling up five touchdowns against the against the Giants, no names on defense and piling up you know, Q, you know, helping your QV rating in that regard, And I don't want it. It feels like I'm you know, denigrating Lamar. Is that a great year?
Like I'm not.
It's absolutely not in that case. But I think from a value perspective, and just the fact that, like I said, e p A like accounts for all of that, and his plays have been you know, high leverage, most valuable from a points added perspective, so it kind of it kind of does take that into the consideration. So I worked he would have played that last game, sitting that sitting that last game, I think he would have won the award if he played and just had a normal Josh Allen game. I thought, I think he'd be a wider a wider favorite.
Yeah.
I mean, for every argument, there's a counter, right, Ravens crushed the Bills. Ravens had the hardest schedule of all the playoff games, you know, and we're going for I think it's very close, is what I'm saying. Sometimes I don't know. I have no idea who's going to win. The only thing I know is that you shouldn't be minus if you had the jet right now minus. The only thing I know is that minus four ninety should not be the on Josh All. That's all. But I have no idea who's going to win, no idea who's gonna should be more.
Jerry McLaurin getting overlooked in this debate.
Yes, he's a buck guy.
I love it about Blarry Bonds. Barry Bonds is the only guy who hit seventy three homers and have forty two touchdowns with no interceptions? What about him?
Is Joe Gibbs available for this?
The Uh?
You know what the voters had to do. The voters this year had to go five spots for every one of these awards, So they literally had to write in five comeback Player of the Year candidates. That's I mean, why do we need it?
Uh?
TA Offensive Player of the Year.
Oh, that's easy.
What about defensive Player of the Year and defensive rookie year.
Defensive player of the Year to be is the hardest.
I think a J w Mat where are you come on?
The stars of him come on and he comes off the edgine.
Now you gotta love him.
I guess I'll pertain and I think he's gonna win only because I think DJ Watt may not be top three in all last name with Hendrickson, but certain will be top two I think in every ballot.
So I think he wins it.
I don't honestly, it's the worst defensive player of the Year list that I can call for good. And then what was the other one offensive off the rookie is James Daniels has down defensive rookie. I'll go with Jared Verse just because kind of the default, and you know, I think he's he's had from a pass rush win rate, that's for Todd. I think he's like one of the top five in the entire league. So for a rookie, I give him credit, and he's got he doesn't have Aaron Donald next to him to create you know, one on ones. He's kind of doing himself. So I'll take Verse.
There Okay, I think I got told. Okay, oh coach of the year.
Oh you said O'Connell.
Yeah, all right, your second pick, sir is Gea.
Well, it depends.
What what is uh?
What is the Houston l A line right now? It's kind of in between.
I got it's toggling back between two and a half and three all week long. It's two and a half increased juice, three reduced juice. So what do we give them here?
Well, I'll take that, Okay, I'll just take the texts. I can give me three. I'll take the texts pretty pretty key.
There's enough threes out it's fair to give them the three.
Yeah, I uh, you know, I don't.
Love this Texas team. I just think we're everyone's down on them obviously, but I mean, look, they they got blown out by the Ravens, maybe the best team in football. They lose to the Chiefs, like you know, after they lose taint Dell. They're actually, you know, right in that game, they could have won that game on the road. So you have a couple of you know, kind of recent poor performances, you know, tough circumstances against really good teams. I don't I wouldn't hold that totally against them. They're the one thing that you know, not the one thing, but they're They're awful running the football, especially on early downs. Bobby Slowick just refuses to do anything but run the ball up the middle, with Joe Mixon th dead last and success rate. Now, the one thing that the Chargers do the worst is they can't stop the run. They use light boxes at the highest rate in the NFL, so they're one of the worst teams in terms of yards after contacts. So I think Joe Mixon could have a good game here and it'll set them up for better kind of third down in situations than like a third and eight or ten that C. J. Stroud's used to. And then you know his offensive line can't block a stunt and you get sacked. So I think he's got that better opportunities. I just think that the numbers inflated. I mean, just three weeks ago, Houston goes into KC and they were three point underdogs. Now they're three point underdogs at home to the Chargers. It doesn't compute at all. So from a rating standpoint, this should be much closer to a pick. So I think a home dog dogs. I don't want to use historical trends, but they are money in the bank in the wildcard round, like almost seventy percent in the last twenty five years. We see it every year where these kind of short home dogs that no one wants to touch ends up either covering or just winning outright. So I just think with the three Houston makes a lot of sense here.
Houston Texans eight years in the playoffs, eight years in the early Saturday time slote in the playoffs. By the way, just let me just throw this in here, artist strength of schedule of the fourteen playoff teams Green Bay aggregate opponents win percentage five thirty three. That obviously has a lot to do with the fact that they play both the Lions and Vikings twice fifteen and two and fourteen and three. Easiest strength of schedule when all a said none Washington for thirty six that schedule. What about strength of victory? The best strength of victory Baltimore five twenty five aggregate win percentage of the teams they've beaten. The worst strength of victory the Los Angeles Chargers three forty eight. They've beaten No.
Two and five versus playoff teams straight up. Yeah, the only two wins were against Denver, so they beat up their bullies. They beat up on the bad teams. But you know, Houston's got a really good defense too. They got two awesome edge rushers. Derek Stingley can lock up mcconkeye like. It's not gonna be a you know, a cakewalk. It's I mean, nineteen eighteen seems very plausible for kind of a weird wild card score.
Toddy number two.
I just like the cleave. Ta said that the Chargers play a light box, and then I was wondering what Willie would think about that, because he likes to think about light boxes, you know, so I thought that would be interesting. And I'm sorry I had to do it. I'm sorry, I'm incorrigible. I should be thrown off this podcast ready. Anyways, I sort of had to just for Willy. Let me ask you, what do eatans guys have for the Stillers against the Ravens. What's the point spread in that game?
What does yiens guys have It is nine and a half or ten kind of equal? What do you see?
More toggling? A lot of toggling going on.
I'll go, I'll go first, what would you what would you make it?
Will?
Why?
You tell us what you want, then we'll tell you what you can have.
Yeah, yeah, I'm not gonna but we went with pretty. It's pretty you want?
You're taking the points here?
What do you what do you think?
Still Stiller's plus ten.
I'm looking at my I'm giving nine and a half painted right now all across? Am I missing that?
I don't see Maker Maker has Bookmaker has ten, Oakmaker.
Has ten, and online bet online has ten also? Okay, so what's the.
What? So?
What am I getting here? What's the official number?
If nine and a half is painted in most places? If not, all you know, we'll go nine and.
A half and I'll take nine and a half. Whatever, Uh, give me the Stillers plus the nine and a half and that well, I just want to make I didn't know.
I didn't know what online a book you read that? Go ahead, I'm good with that.
Okay, Cleave's giving me the ten, so I'm taking the ten. I'm gonna just say that. I guess the Pittsburgh stores there was a famous coach ins might have heard of, Donna Air and Cardinal Land Dennis Green. He inst to say that is Cardinals, or or the tre Bears, or who we thought they were. You remember that the whole deal. Well, look, the Stillers are who we thought they were. You can't blame tom Win for his own success. If you walked into this season and you said the stores are gonna be ten and three, people would say you're on heroin. The Stillers aren't gonna be ten and three. Okay, it's just not gonna happen. But he did some magic like he always does. He wins with Duck Hodges sometimes he does crazy stuff. He got it to ten and three. Then the schedule started. That was the preseason. Then we got into the regular season against rural teams. You play the Eagles, you play the Baltimore Ray, you play it doesn't matter if you play down at Acker. Sure, if it's freezing cold, we can't catch the ball. We got pickings. He's not doing nothing. The bottom line is now you play real teams and you get beat Okay, I understand nothing's changed. Can we stop with all the Tomlin's a genius in the first thirteen weeks and now he's an idiot in the last four weeks. No. If I would have told YenS before the season they're gonna be ten and three after thirteen games. Yin's all would have said, coach of the year. They don't even have a quarterback Russell Wilson eight hundred years old. Justin Fields. I don't know what he does besides go back and run. It's ridiculous. Okay, here's the deal. Steelers plus ten it's too many. Even remember, every Ravens Steelers game before the last one is a two or three point game. I think we talked about that ad nauseum on the megapod about how every single game is a three point game. Going back, ad you know, if you go even if you ask Aaron Shottz, what was the score of the Ravens game against the Steelers in nineteen twenty seven, he goes, oh, that was the third best of all time played in nineteen twenty seven. The score was nineteen sixteen. So one time the Steelers get blown out and by the way, they didn't even really get blown out. It was twenty four seventeen or it was thirty one twenty, but I forget exactly what the score was. And then I said Ravens under three and a half more and then Willie texted back, oh, that I do only agree with that pick, and of course there was a pick six. So he laughs at my stupid bed, Thank you, Willy. The bottom line, he goes, I don't like that pick. Yeah, well, good, good, Yeah, I don't like it either. Now, so the point is, though it was a seven point game, even in the blowout, it was a seven point game with thirteen minutes left in the game. So now you're going to tell me that the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have lost the last four and they should have lost the last four, you're telling me they can't stay within ten of the Ravens. Come on, now, you're going too far. Ten is just too much. Look, I'm the first one to go don Acker, sure and tellians it's a big problem. We gotta have problems all over the ball. But ten points in a Store Raven game, You're getting crazy. It's too much. Store's plus ten.
I'm getting. I'm getting this. Just this would be such a He goes, what I hearing?
Do you guys agree with me? Or am I totally off my rocker here? It's a lot, it's a lot.
It's probably too many, but I'm not I'm not cutting in line to bet that team the way they're playing.
But I get your premise it is. I mean, look, they played what three weeks ago and it was six and a half seven.
So yes, I get it out as I guess seven and a half based on that line that Will's talking about. Ten ten seems like a lot, though there is the looming specter of the Mike Tomlin concession punt, so how that goes? But somehow to cover?
Yeah, last week is like, is he sabotaging that offense?
What is he doing?
I've never seen someone have such a bad game that he had last week.
Oh, he was horrible Saturday night.
It was terrible.
He re.
Pickens was very upset that he was getting charged over one hundred dollars to park his card down Eric Akercher, and that's what he was really upset about.
Eric Akrocher.
Willie, I'm with you, Gilly. I like the Rams here. I just think it's a tough spot for the Vikings.
I think it's very similar to the middle of the regular season where the Vikings play the Lions tough, physical game, then had to turn around and play the Rams and it didn't go well. I just think the difference between being the one and the five is going to be something that's going to be very hard to overcome psychologically. I know it's dangerous sit here to play amateur psychologists, but these teams are pretty even. I know the Rams don't have a great home field, but Stafford, a veteran quarterback, can kind of detect what Flores is doing from a blitz standpoint, and that is a big part of beating this Vikings defense. In that first matchup, he had ninety completions and four touchdown passes. He carved minnesot up Donald. If any if ten of that performance carries over to this week, they're cooked. I just think this is a bad spot for Minnesota, and teams have not done well the week after facing Detroit, which makes sense. Tough physical game takes your toll, takes their toll on you, takes its toll on you. The endless wings with Applebee's those those can fill you up pretty quickly. Rams are gonna be moving on here, I think.
And I am gonna piggyback on Cleave's take on the Texas Houston Texans plus three a lot based on what I was talking about strength of victory. The Chargers have beaten Newbody, Newbody and I do think that as bad as Houston's form has been, I think they're getting a little bit disrespected here. Home dog first playoff game, you do a lot worse long term, you know, not betting on that kind of thing. I think that's the way to go. Houston plus three is the play for me. Number two.
I forgot to mention the Chargers are on this is a third straight road game, yes as well, you know that matter, especially for a West Coast team. I mean, you're you know, it's not not even all the way they went all the way to New England back obviously the Vegas is not very far, but now you got to go to Texas. It's not that and it's a short week too. You're playing one at one last day on your third straight road game. Not not a good spot here.
It's also the Chargers appear to be a games scripty team. I don't necessarily have the evidence to back that up, but it feels like they're a much I mean, obviously everybody's different when you're a header behind, but for them in particular, I think they can afford to play their style of football. Went ahead, but if they fall down in a game, they fall behind. I think they sort of lose character at that point, and so I like the Texans plus the points give me a point teaser, which I have sucked royally on this year.
But I think it's not really fair to criticize the playoff teasers. Do you have so few games to pick front?
Yeah, no, I'm not talking about playffs. Some talk about just my regular season performance was terrible, but there might be an obvious one here. At least there was earlier in the week. Now it's kind of teaser protection. Y what do you got if you had to do one, what do you got?
You know, I'll take the pack I know this is not a long teat. I'll take the Packers up to ten and a half. I think that game's gonna be a little closer. We have no idea of hurts. I mean, I think he's gonna play. But first games off concussion historically aren't great. So I think the Packers, you know, even though they're not they've struggled and lost to a bunch of good teams. They don't get blown out for the most part. So I'll take the Packers there. And then on the other end, yeah, well I can't. I'm not gonna use the Texans because I already use them, So I'll just take I think the Vikings win, but I'll take the Rams.
You know, up to seven.
And I just I said this Monday on Guessing Line, so I feel compelled to say it here. They say Jalen Hurts will be at practice today as he returns from his concussion per Nick Sirianni. So they expect Jalen Hurts at practice, which to me was just sort of being glossed over. Everyone's like, yeah, he's playing. It appears that he will play. Jason Wygarden made the point, Yeah, even if he does play, he's still coming off with concussion. Sure, he's going to be all there, And I think that does need to be said by somebody where it's like we shouldn't really assume. So anyway, it looks like Jalen Hurts is to go for that game.
I was gonna say, especially if you have the nefarious belief that had he's not really good to go, but they're gonna sneak him through because it's a playoff game.
Well that's the right.
Oh well, if that's the case, I've thought about that too. What was it Green Bay with who was it ta rams?
I had the rams, okay, because it gets it to set right.
I think Cleve just talked me into Green Bay plus ten and a half too. I kind of don't see them getting blown out. Uh so I'll go with Green Bay plus ten and a half two, and.
Just to be.
Different, I'll go with the Comman Deers plus nine. I don't really see I don't see the Tampa Bay beating anybody. By the way, this is the same Tampa Bay team that almost lost to the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago.
And we were losing the.
Cowboys, all right. They lost the Cowboys lost the right, they lost the Cowboys, and then they were losing sixteen to six to a guy named Spencer Rattler. This is not a great team.
Maybe you haven't heard of him before.
Maybe you haven't heard of mister Rattler, but he was nondescripted Oklahoma as well.
By the way, the Bucks deserve to lose. Maybe I'm an island. That whole Mike Evans charade at the end, the fact that your playoff lives are at stake and you're some bogus, you know, swing pack. It could have been tipped the line and picks like you just I don't care if it's a one percent chance, Like what are you doing? And it's such a manufactured way to for a milestone that like no one's going to even remember in a week, Like I don't know. The whole thing rubbed me the wrong way, you know, I just that thing bothered me. So again people tell you on Twitter for having that opinion. So maybe I'm not an island.
It's the WWE ification that I'm talking about. You're making my point exactly for me that I belabored for ten minutes on this podcast that would never go down.
Now.
I know there was that time with Strahan and Brett fav which was also abhorrent, But this is ridiculous, Like you said, they should be taking a knee and they're throwing passes to get like bonuses. This is it's getting WWE. That's ridiculous.
Can you imagine? Can you imagine if that gets tipped, they take it to the house, they get the two point conversion and the Saints win in overtime. That's not Bucks seating, that's Bucks make or miss playoffs.
That would be great. That would be like all.
Time everything for decades to come. It would be covering.
Yes, people, they're like, loosen up, loosen up, it's a great milestone, they're so happy for. I'm like, no, that is separate from the situation you're in. The Only thing that matters is taking a knee and winning the game to go to the playoffs. It's not and it's not like you know, Atlanta was down two touchdowns at the end and okay, you're they're probably gonna lose.
Anyway, the game was tied.
I think the I think that one of the teams was attempting a field goal to take the lead. It was just to me, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I was like, that doesn't take away from Mike Evans being great. I think he's a Hall of Famer all those sorts of things. You just didn't need to do that at that stage of the game. That could have anything fluky could have happened. So anyway, I just thought that was that was absurd.
Which, by the way, they have to change these these incentive clauses. Didn't you get like three million dollars for that or something.
Three million, three million?
Right? So what now we're going to play the whole and this is what Cleve was talking about when when he said, oh, well, you know everyone's gambling and the props and everything, and that's probably what's going on at these end of games why people are trying to score touchdowns. Like it's like it's Laye Kiffin rama over there, right, because now everybody's friend said, oh, well, you know I got Derek Henry. He scored two touchdowns, so he now he has to try to get another touchdown. It's it's it's ruining the game. It still has to be a game first. And if you're losing the what's the word I'm looking for, Gil, if you're losing the integrity, integrity, integrity of the football game because of the are we playing for? The stats up with exactly? I'm sorry I couldn't come.
Up with that, But the point is.
I couldn't agree with By the way I couldn't agree with Cleve Moore. It's that is an embarrassment and a stain.
Did you did you get what he was really saying? That that was the word you couldn't come up with, like of all the words in the English language that you were.
He can throw he wants to throw stones.
Let me again, you see there's this word integrity.
Yes, exactly. You can go back and check all the picks. You can go back and see the whole thing. You guys can just cast this persions. Go ahead. It's it's okay. Look when you're on the top of the hill, this is what happens to you.
Rams up, bills down. I think the bill's role is is it eight and a half or nine?
Am?
I am?
I going to push on a three? Either way, I'm still going with bills. I think they win this game pretty comfortably.
Rams commandos.
Wait, so wait will he's going with Rams?
And who bills.
Bills from nine down to three?
Right?
Fine?
Says he's going to be texting all you can't do it's not a long Okay.
It's come on, it's ridiculous. It's the playoffs. It's ridiculous.
What do you have, Gilly Rams, Commodores?
Do's you're with me?
Will you?
Oh?
No?
Okay? Rams plus seven and commodes plus nine?
Okay?
Got it all right?
Final two questions each and every megapod from the inception over a decade ago. You believe this podcast is fourteen years old? Good god? Now everybody has a podcast. Here we go, which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose outright, Do we even have enough candidates here? Your candidates are? Is that we do? Your candidates are the Baltimore Ravines and nine and a half or ten point favorites hosting the Steelers, the Bills nine and a half point favorites at home against the Broncos. Just those two. If I came to you from the future, TA and I said one of those two lost, the Ravens are the Bills. The answer is, I'll say.
Ravens only because Tomlin Voodoo has got magical powers that nobody else does, so that's the only the only way it happens. But I'll take that one.
God, I couldn't agree more. I think the Insers, who would really be shocked if the Insers did what they always do against Lamar Jackson and pulls it out of their ass. It's certainly more It's certainly more likely than bone Knicks, you know. Give me a break with the bone Knicks stuff. I'm tired of hearing about. He's not that good, folks. He's good, but he's not. I love how people like jumping for Joe bone Nicks. He's so great he's okay, okay, let's not get crazy.
Yeah, I'll say Ravens too.
And if Lamar does pull one of these stinkers again and loses like a nineteen thirteen game, geez, he's gonna have a long offseason.
But I think Baltimore gets by this game. But Baltimore would be the one, just because these games can be a little squirrely.
I'll only say the Bills because I think the Bills.
Would.
The Bills are susceptible to the one, the one. There's one player they can't lose. Axiom of this, which is, if something happens to Josh Allen, god forbid, they're the Buffalo Bills Without Josh Allen, then they're not even a playoff team. So I'll just say the Bills only based on that, which I know is a weird way to do it, but I'll say that. And then there's six games, obviously super Wildcar Weekend. If you had to bet a side ta on five of them, but you got one free pass, what's the game you want no part.
Of, I'll say I'll say the Bills, Broncos, Doddie.
M Chargers, Texans, just because I kind of agree with all of you guys about the Texans, but you know, I don't know. I just don't like that game.
Wilsons Eagles, Packers.
I know the Packers upside, but man, it's been ugly the past couple of weeks. I have no feel for that one.
I'm Eagles Packers too, man, I just don't know. The Packers to me, are of all the fourteen playoff teams the widest variants of outcomes for me, Like, I will not be surprised if they're awesome. I will not be surprised if they get beat by thirty will they could be either. I will say that for that reason. TA Anyway, there's.
Been sorry, there's been one underdog that has won outright and fifteen of the past seventeen wildcard rounds, so there's probably someone maybe we're not thinking about, but maybe it's just the Commanders. But there's always at least one big underdog upset. So I can't wait to see who it is.
I can't wait. T A, are you doing your football preview again next year?
I am put a lot. I mean, it's it's been helping on the for the future side of things, so it didn't help me in season, but it helped me prior to the season get to some good futures. So yeah, I'm kind of I'm kind of obligated now to keep doing it as long as I can so, and I'll have it slay Off a modified playoff preview by tonight or tomorrow morning too, not the extent of the preseason, but just kind of a one pager on each team with some some nuggets and some season one stats for I'll send out over Twitter as well, So look for.
That all right.
That's c L e v t A on Twitter at Cleveanalytics dot com. That's up and running as well, right with all your stuff.
Yeah, yeah, just kind of breakdown of every game and you know, the DFS information in there, a bunch of tools and stuff. So yeah, check it out if interested.
You're so appreciate it. Will Hill not not the Will Hill on Twitter, should a bit more podcast. Who's your latest guest to.
Will Brad Powers today? Aaron Shotts coming up on Friday? It was actually I didn't know you had him on a Numbers game. I was supposed to have them on last week. You didn't have power, So I apologize for, uh, I don't know, stepping on your guests.
But oh check it out.
That's a.
By the way, let me just tell you, I hope you have more luck getting out because you know he's a voter. I the ground rules were kind of like, he's not going to tell me who we voted for. We're just going to talk around it.
He'd be a good mobster man. You're not getting anything out of him.
Yeah, it was interesting, nonetheless, and then Todd Wishnev at t wish Nev on Twitter start of the Showtime docu series Action, Who is still accepting college basketball people?
Yes, yeah, but I just don't get around to putting them in. But one day I'll get motivated and I'll put everybody in. But you know, is Drew dinta going to be able to do his megapod because it seems like Los Angeles is burning down.
Drew is doing the Australian Open pre draw with me in a half hour, but he is very busy with other stuff and other stuff. I don't know. It might include that we had Jason on Jason lives in Glendale. He was like, touch and go for a little bit. He's fine though, Yeah, oh he'll be fine, And yeah, yeah he's fine. Long man, that is some terrible That is some scary stuff. All right, check me out numbers Game Tend a new Eastern Monday through Friday on Vson. Good luck with all your super wildcar weekend bets. Thanks for listening.
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