Beating The Book with Gill AlexanderBeating The Book: 2025 Divisional Round NFL MegaPod Betting Preview
Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev (VSiN Contributor), Will Hill (VSiN Contributor), and Drew Dinsick (NBC Sports Edge) break down all of the Divisional Round NFL betting action! The quartet gives you their best bets of the week, best teaser options, which big favorite is most likely to lose outright, and the game they want no part of.
Check it down, man, it is the Divisional Round Megapod Thursday morning or no, pardon me, Wednesday morning. Not a problem with January fifteenth, twenty twenty five, The Beating the Book Podcast Live on Twitter, Gil Alexander, the staples of the show, Todd wishnev different angle from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania because he had to use an alternative computer. How you doing, Toddy?
Hey?
Hey, he just struggled with a computer for thirty minutes. Will Hill at not the Will Hill on Twitter, by the way, host, So this should have been more podcasts from a not his mom's core attic somewhere in Connecticut.
Are you do know?
Willie?
What's going on?
Guys? Seven games left? Gott to enjoy him?
Do you want to say anything? As a Minnesota Vikings fan? Do you want to start up?
I say the people, No, this is I don't know what stage of the grief I'm in. And there's some fandom that its wounded. There's some like eighty to one Super Bowl futures that are wounded. I should have known better. I shouldn't have gotten my guard up down where you're not supposed to have your guard even a little bit. This is the Minnesota Vikings, this is Sam Darnold. I deserve all of the pain.
For believing even a little bit. Oh, very hard show and our guest. We always love to have our favorites during the playoffs who were also kind enough to join us during the regular season. He is kind beyond belief because he does it with us every year. Obviously, I'm retweeting now the live feed. Obviously he comes on a Numbers game every Tuesday. He is the host of not one but two of his own podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, which is outstanding, and then NBC Sports at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. It's our buddy, Drew Dinset a whale underscore. Kapper was hadding it.
Oh, just happy to be here, delighted as always, an honored to be invited to participate in the most important betting weekend of the year. Divisional Round is the best of these are the best games. You can make a credible case that we might be watching the Super Bowl to facto on Sunday afternoon. I don't think that's outrageous. And yeah, this is this is going to be a fun podcast. Happy to see you guys, and four Will's Vikings. I just want to paint a little I know that you know, losing an eighty to one future stinks, but I gotta tell you what, Like the infrastructure is there. You got a coach that can develop a quarterback, and you got a young quarterback that you're paying nothing for the next three years. Like if the sky should be blue for the Vikings because you have two elite weapons. You can invest your draft in your free agent resources now in the offensive line. It's unlikely now that Brian Flores gets sniped as a head coach. So the whole band comes back. Yeah, I think Minnesota is going to be a force to be reckoned with three years to come.
I appreciate the pep talk. I think you're right. The only problem is from a betting standpoint, that eighty one is going to be Like, yeah, but I agree with you.
Can I can douse a little water on the fire of the Minnesota Vikings. Just I want to throw this out and see if you guys buy into this. That they have had now I think even beyond this year, I think for two years running now, they have had a particularly fortunate one score wrecord. Oh yeah, and I do. I do wonder if you go to a rookie quarterback if that's as likely to manifest even beyond normal regression. So that's that's just the one thing I would say about the Vikings. I get it, Washington, you agree?
What do you, guys, Washington about the other quarterback from Michigan is stinks? Okay, JJ McCarthy, please give me a break. Did you guys watch any college football? He is going to be terrible. And Sam Darnold is who we thought he was. He and so is Russell Wilson. He's who we thought was. They're going nowhere. You don't have a quarterback, my friend, You're going nowhere now, Drew like put lipstick on a pig and tell you you're going somewhere. You're going nowhere, and you're going fast.
Wow. I wish nev fair friend. Point counterpoint with Will Hill, No, I think it's I don't know, man, it sucks because again, fourteen and three and then poof is not fun. And obviously if we have an eighty to one that is not fun at all. I do wonder if go ahead, I'm sorry ahead.
Like you could have gotten Daniel Jones with Sam Donald though, if they pay him for you dollars, are you feeling good?
No?
I don't think so.
Like it's the unknown of McCarthy and then it's the known of Donald in the flaws and giving him the money. So it's not like you have a slam dunk even b plus quarterback next year.
You don't.
You have unknown and unknown.
I I bring this up also because it's our it's our buddy at churn Off brought this up. Someone sent me a video of him talk about Washington now. But I just want to bring this up before we start with our bets, which is Adam. I don't know if he had Tampa Bay and we love Adam, but he had I don't know if he had Tampa Bay and it was just bitter about this whatever. But it was a video that said he called Washington the luckiest team of his life. And I object to this characterization as a Washington fan because I believe that they're you know, he's in the video he cited. I believe third down and fourth down conversion, and I think not all third down and fourth down conversions are equal. I think if you look at the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. That was a particularly fortunate team that had a wildly successful rate of like third and seven's and longer. This Skins team is not like. This is very short yardage with a magic man as quarterback. There is never a time where you feel like it is impossible for them to convert. It is very casual. And I don't find them lucky. I mean you have to have some good fortune, sure, but by and large I don't find them lucky at all. Am I wrong about that?
I mean there's degrees of luck. You know, the fact that they got to play Dallas twice when Dak Prescott wasn't the quarterback, that's that's fortunate. The fact that they got to they had four a fourth place schedule, the Hail Mary game, they did have some some end of end of game things break in their favor. But we could make it. We could make a list. But yeah, Redy Morris, we can make a list. But I don't think they would come up in the top ten of lucky teams in recent memory.
Fortune sure, but it's funny that you say that, Gilly, because I think you could argue the Vikings have a better roster. I'm not take out the quarterback for a second. The Vikings have a better roster than the Redskins. However, I'd rather be the Redskins because the Redskins have a quarterback who is going to be electric and can be in that top tier theoretically with the Mahomes's and the Jackson's and the Allen's and those people, whereas Minnesota a better roster but doesn't have that quarterback component. And I think in the NFL, if we look back at who wins the super Bowl every year, it seems to me the electric quarterback. Take Nick Foles out. I guess he's the outlier, but almost every year it's the incredible quarterback that wins the super Bowl. Jimmy Garrapple doesn't win the super Bowl, Mahomes wins the super Bowl. You know, Brock Party doesn't win the super Bowl. Mahomes wins the super Bowl. Jalen Hurts doesn't win the super Bowl. Homes wins the super Bowl.
It's my line that you cannot win a super Bowl without a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback over performing on a rookie contract. Those are the only two ways to win a super Bowl. The last exception, what you brought up was Foles, but really Carson Wentz was on a rookie deal, so it doesn't really count. And before that you have to go all the way back to Brad Johnson and try Dilford two thousand and two with the Bucks, Brad Johnson two thousand Trent Dilford with the Ravens for an exception to that rule. That is about as steadfast as it gets. And so if you look at that of these you go ahead, well, I'm sorry.
No, I agree completely with the sentiment. I would say there is a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy nature to it, where none of us would consider Eli Manning a Hall of Fame quarterback if he hadn't won the Super Bowl. So it's like when you win the Super Bowls, now you're a Hall of Famer. So there is a little bit of like, you know, that aspect of it, like if Stafford hadn't won a Super Bowl, he probably wouldn't be All of Famer.
ELI without the Super.
Bowls is not ELI is the I'll give you Eli E LII is the only exception to that. Stafford might have accumulated enough stats or even if he didn't win a super Bowl.
He was getting it all. Maybe like he has, Stafford is later than Sam Donald. Do you think like if we if we if we say, okay, here's Sam Donald at age whatever he is, and here's Stafford at at that same age. Stafford's a much better quarterback than that guy that Sam Donald is. You know, he's he's worked. You know you can win some games with Sam Donald, but you never say to yourself, oh my god, Sam Donald's gonna take it to the super Bowl. I don't see it.
DoD, what were our records last week? Do you know?
I know I was had an outstanding record, Gilly with a two and oh and a one and oh and teasers as well, Rams which was beautiful in Texans, which was beautiful. You also had Rams plus seven and Commanders plus nine on the teasers, so two and oh one and oh for you, Willy went one and one one oh. I had a terrible oh and two with my yensers and the Tampa Bay over oh and two oh and one, and the guests had two and oh and oh and one on the teasers.
Clevela, what were my picks, Toddy? Your picks were Washington plus three and Rams plus one so you lost Washington plus three. No, you're actually two.
He does this all year, He does this all year. In the last place, Yeah, because he had Washington.
Why did I give myself in two?
Then?
Why did I give myself into then creative accounting?
He hates Washington that much, He hates me that much that he was just like.
What you talk about.
I had Washington. I had Washington.
And by the way, I think we were very fortunate to win that game without the Baker Mayfield.
You know, is right? Everybody everybody says that you're right the Baker Mayfield fumble at the end. Oh wow, you were fortunate about that. But how many points did Washington leave on the board in that game? Also? Right? Like me, there's a bunch of that.
But that was the problem to get it inside the five yard line. And they could not run the ball at all on Tampa, so they were one dimensional and then they were having massive problems once the field got small. You couldn't throw it up in there. And I just don't know if if if that's gonna if they can't run the ball against the Lions, Katie bar the door, the Lions are gonna win by a million.
You better run, Washington had a Washington had a first and goal with the three where they had to settle for a field goal, and they had a first and goal at the one where they got zero points. So right, yeah, you're right, Baker Mayfield fumble. But let let's decide what's fortunate and what's not. I mean, I don't care how bad your running game is. First and goal at the one, you kind of have to knock it in, right, Like, you're still not fortunate not getting it in. So I don't know if we did a if we did a Dumbo of the Week, I don't think there's like a massively obvious candidate. But I'll throw out a few things. There was a fourth in inches for Mike Tomlin in his own territory early in that game against the Ravens where he decided to punt. It wasn't four than one, it was fourth in inches. I'll throw that out there. Todd Bowles had a couple he let ten seconds run off the clock for no reason at the end of the first half. The Bucks ended up scoring anyway after after Mike Evans threw Latimore down to the ground and then Latimore got flagged for the subsequent thing. But before that he let ten seconds go off the board. Tampa Bay scored anyway. And then the very first thing that happened in that Tampa Bay Washington game. It was a fourth and seven for Tampa Bay. They kicked the fifty yard field goal, but Washington was called off side. Washing was called for off side. It was a fourth and two, and Todd Bowles said, we'll just keep the points.
So there was the first half Raheem Bowls. That was the worst that at the end of the first half with his.
Bowl, I think that's it. Like I'm thinking of the other gives. The other gives were such blowouts that there wasn't anything.
Didn't Sean Payton have some things where he should have challenged or a couple of things. I honestly, once uh Buffalo got in control, I was kind of doing other things and had the game on in the background. I know some people said Peyton did some Peyton did some strange things in terms of what he what he did or didn't challenge.
I don't know.
Did you did you catch that, Drew?
I was, I was like you, I was as soon as it was like this thing is over.
There was one catch.
I think it might have been in the Bills game, which is like a long pass to Concaid. I think it was maybe a thirty yard past to Cancaid and the ball clearly hit the ground and the Bills knew it and they ran up and quickly ran a play and made it before I think referring to yeah, okay, yeah. Some of the times it might be a giveaway if the other team's rushing to run and play and they're all maybe that's a giveaway.
You want to get.
Your replay guy out there and figure it out.
But the flip side of that is you take your time, and while you're taking your time, they're gonna catch They're going to see the uh there. So it's really hard to let's be casual, but let's get this off very quickly.
It's very hard to do both.
Oh no, I'm saying the other team, if you see the other team hurrying, you better get your red flag out because they're obviously hurrying for a reason.
You were suggest.
Yeah was it the forty nine Ers Eagles NFC title game a couple years ago, DeVante Smith the first drive clearly drops the ball. He's telling the whole team, Hey, get on the ball. Get on the ball. Shanahan's just sitting there watching it happen, and it was a drop and then yeah, the whole game, you know, went off the rails from there.
The one down at like the five yard line, that one.
Yes, fourth down terrible.
Yeah, brutal. I'm sorry.
I thought overall the coaching was pretty fair and pretty good across the wild card weekend. I'll give my Dumbo of the Week to uh Sirianni and Kellen Moore.
Uh.
To have that offensive output with all of those weapons against at home against the Green Bay defense, that's not really worth writing home about it, I think is pretty It's pretty suss. Although the Eagles are going to come up again in a bit for and I'm going to have a very different take, I think.
Yeah, by the way, when a small one, can I have one small one? It was O'Connell please taking his sweet ass time like late in that game, running the ball, huddling almost like.
Bleeding they were going to come back. That was just very bizarre.
Yeah, that's actually the winner. That was weird. There were two consecutive running plays when they were down multiple scores, and you're like, what are they doing?
Yeah, they ate five minutes on a drive that ended up as a punt between the third and fourth quarter and the game is over.
Yeah, well, they were trying to just over the line.
They were getting nineteen and a half, I believe on the old line minus five eighty or something like that, and so O'Connell had that bet.
Yeah, they're trying to defend the second half plus six too, and you know, or minus six. They didn't get there.
Well aware, by the way, nine sacks of Donald. Give me the pie chart on what percentage fault that was was Donald's and what was the offensive line?
Seven out of nine Darnald. Yeah, the time, the time that he was taking to make the decisions and the inability to even consider the checkdowns was pretty pretty brutal. But again, like that was the narrative coming into that was the handicap coming into that game, which is the Rams can get quick pressure up the middle. And the major takeaway of Mike's Lions was that Donald was staring down the pressure like they kind of didn't matter who was coming when he was. He just wasn't he wasn't playing quarterback.
Throw the ball away, man, like he just oh oh.
There was guys open those guy's open underneath all day. It was. That was a weird one.
The Rams deserves the trip of the hat they've given up and three in the last four real games. I'm not counting the last game of the year where it wasn't really a game. I'm talking about the real games. I mean, no one would have said that before those four games. The previous game for that, they give it forty two or forty four to the Bills. After that nine, nine, nine and three, no one had them not getting the other team to double digits four.
Times in a row.
And Todd knows that because Steve Feszig and I were batting it back and forth about this line for the Rams Philly game where we're OPO, as we'll find out here momentarily. So Todd researched that. Okay, by the way, Drew had a spectacular wildcar weekend. He already told me, was like, ah, man should come on last week, so let's see.
Well, it sounds like you guy, It sounds like Cleve did did well. No, and I think we had the same two sides, So that's good.
Yeah, I would be both you and me between football and tennis. This is a great run for both of us. So let's see we can continue it with the divisional round here. I assume there was no in game todd to speak of, and go to the bets.
Yeah, I didn't really do much on the in game on the wild could I was busy losing money in college basketball.
Okay, so what's the story. We do two picks here again for divisional round. Two picks, yes, yes, two picks. Okay, Drew, you start, sir, what is your first best?
Okay, this is tough. These are all pretty good numbers. I'm gonna I'm gonna go. I'm gonna stick stick with what got me here. Two weeks in a row, I've gone him backing the Texans, and I still am surprised that the market is not correctly adjusting for what is the best defense playing right now and across all the football and in a new setting. There is certainly a lot to be said about the fact that Mahomes is on the other sideline. Andy Reid has had an extra week to prepare for you, and in general, the Chiefs are healthy at home obviously, But over the balance of the season, I think we've learned a couple important things about the Chiefs. They don't have any tackles, they are susceptible to pass rush, particularly quick pressures around the edge, and Pad Mahomes, for whatever reason, has regressed in terms of his ability to be the magician that never gets sacked. He has taken a lot more sacks this year and has been a lot less effective as a scrambler for reasons unknown. But I think a lot of it has to do with the quality of the tackle play that they've had throughout the balance of the season, and I think Houston is definitely capable of continuing their brilliance in terms of pass rush and quick pressure. On top of that, Mahomes and this just the schematic kind of identity of the Chiefs this year has been a lot more vertical passing. They are trying to push the ball further downfield, and while they do have the weapons certainly to create separation and win at the point of point of the catch. This is the most outstanding cornerback unit that they've come up against. And these guys are playing with confidence and they are literally keen on a couple of key takeaways per game, and I think, really if they can create some turnovers and generate some pressure, I think the Texans are alive to be the spoiler this week, but the fact that they're getting eight points is really I think a bridge too far. My fear for this one is seven, and actually consensus says eight and a half, So I'll take eight and a half. And I think ultimately like the Texans offense is just a brutal, brutal entity. It is not fun to watch. It is not well schemed, it's not well structured, and Bobby Slowic sequencing is appalling. The running is extremely predictable, and the interior pass the interior of the offensive line needs to be completely replaced if they're going to be a functional offense next year. And they're up against Chris Jones, who can be a complete game wrecker. So I get it that it's going to be a little bit of a fragile situation. If Houston can have a couple of clean drives and generate I mean, the Chiefs can have a couple clean drives and generate a lead. But I do think one of the other kind of Achilles heels we've seen throughout the season for this Chiefs defense is their ability to defend elite wide receivers and Nico Collins is that guy right now, and so fingers crossed, he gets like fifteen targets in this game. I think the fact that CJ. Stroud was consistently under pressure up the middle against the Chargers and comported himself effectively is a positive sign. The fact that he was kind of back to doing his magical stuff at third and a million is a positive sign. And I think the Texans are alive to be a little bit of a fly annointment of what otherwise looks to be a pretty predictable championship game weekend.
So Texans plus nine is your pick.
Eight and a half, which I think is consensus right now.
I was gonna give you a nine.
Zirka has eight. The only nine out there is is pretty is pretty expensive. I'll take a flat eight and a half.
Okay, So Texans plus eight and a half for Drew.
Let me ask you this question, Drew, I too was on the Texans mine last week. I cited the Chargers strength of victory. Their paltry three forty eight strength of victory made three forty eight by their two wins over the Broncos. They don't have those, it's even more anemic. But I just want to ask this, there's no way to know the answer, but I'm always curious about you guys view stuff like this. So we won that bet. They end up winning by twenty points. It ends up not being a sweat at all.
But if CJ.
Stroud doesn't complete at third and sixteen from their own seventeen where the snap goes past him, he collects the ball flushed out to the right, find Xavier Hutchinson down the middle for thirty four yards. If that doesn't happen, do you believe we win that bet?
In the uh? Maybe right before that play, I think I was texting with Andy and I was like, I can't, Like, I really hope they get some points on this track so I can get the heck off this. But but no, But the fact that they that he completed those third and forever like miracle stuff, and the fact that they were finally targeting Nico, I was like, oh, I was like, I was like I was waiting to see this, like thank you, like finally, and and stayed well, I was waiting for halftime. They got three more points at halftime, and then I was like, well, now it doesn't actually now the price doesn't even make sense.
To get off.
So I'm just gonna ride this and see if they can can put it away. And ultimately, the you know, the defense was able to come up with points themselves to seal it. And you know, again like there's there's certainly, you know, Pat Mahlomes is the boogeyman, Like I know this, Like I'm not an idiot. I'm on against him in this spot in playoffs past and then been regretful and uh, you know, certainly the fact that he plays with so much confidence because he's been here so many times and it's just completely unflapped, unflappable in the playoff setting is not lost on me. But yeah, there's there's a world where you know, people like, oh, that's the Pat Mahomes I saw in the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers who was running for his life and you know this was you know, trying to play catch up. And you know, I like that as part of the kind of distribution of potential outcomes for this game as opposed to you know, a game where the Texans just are a no show.
Yeah, I just I just always find that that being fascinating out football. This doesn't apply for basketball. It doesn't necessarily apply for baseball either. Football is one of these things where it's like, look, we won by twenty we had the dog, easy, peasy, but like if that one thing doesn't happen in the certain quarter, yeah, you.
Know, like if you bet, if you bet the Eagles, you need to do some soul searching if you feel like that was a comfortable one.
Yeah, and an NFL it happens more than in college football. I feel like like one play in the NFL can be the whole game, whereas in college the kind of cream rises the top. It seems like they're it's not just down to one play typically, But I don't know anyways.
I'm just saying, as as better as we don't necessarily acknowledge that all the time, right, cool.
I acknowledge that.
I was very happy that Baker Mayfield. I kept texting you guys saying, when is Baker Mayfield going to have a brain fart like he always does, and it's got to come here sooner or later.
And then he finally did one, and it was like, thankful.
Since you bring this up. I wasn't going to bring this up, but Will knows where I'm going where I'm going with this, so We're on a group Textsikk, Me, Will and Todd. So this is the first playoff game as a Washington fan, right, I've had in years. I haven't won one in nineteen years. Todd will not stop walking texting the whole time. It's not as simple as putting the phone away, because every time it I'm like, what happened? Oh, something was about to happen, and I'm just like, Todd, shut up.
I was being rather negative. I'll be honest.
I was being rather negative because I didn't like my Washington bed and every person get into five yard one can't get a score, and and then I stopped, and then I was much more positive after that. But because it was your first playoff game since, you know, back before the Barry Bonds and Joe Gibbs administration. So uh, anyways, we pulled it out. But I did text in the middle there where is when is Baker Mayfield going to make a Baker Mayfield brain fart?
And and he texted a lot of things, So I mean, you could have filled a lot of playing with anything there. If there was a referee for our group chat, If there was a referee our group chat, you would have fouled out multiple times?
Was it not right that Mike Evans throws the guy downy track of anything?
And I was rooting for I had Washington too, I'm rooting for Gilly. I'm kind of living vicariously through Gilly. Of like, man, the excitement of is the stress of this thing. It's tought everything, man, I can't I can't believe that plan.
Chris FeliCa.
That was a legitimate pass interference. Mike Evans literally knife the guy at gunpoint. He stabbed him with the machete while holding on eighteen forty and then what with a penalty a lot of more.
Give me a break, Chris, that was not a legitimate penalty. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
Your best bets, my best bet is going to be unfortunately.
What do you have for the Lions game? Nine and a half? Yeah?
And a half.
I'm gonna lay nine and a half with Dan Campbell minus the nine and a half, and I'll tell you why there's a guy down in Pittsburgh almost I had a heart attack with that Redskins team last week.
We're gonna kick the crap out of those boys. I think if you have problems in the red zone, against the Lions. It's curtains, baby, because the lies. Look the commanders, I know Gilly likes to make excuses for his commander's defense. The commander's defense is not good, okay, and the whole game I'm holding on with dear life. Please, can somebody stop Mike Evans from running wide open down the middle of the field or that auton guy. Look, the commanders did a great job, you know, duct taping that defense together, but now you're going against the juggernaut of juggernaut offenses inside. There's no weather inside. Jared Goff is gonna pick these boys apart. They're gonna run for a mile. That guy Bucky Irving is still running on some of these run plays. I don't even know where the Redskins defense was at all. They literally were. And what's funny is because there's so few possessions in that game, there was barely any stops in the whole game. If you think about it. You know, Mayfield stopped himself on that fumble, and then they stopped themselves on that third and one with the stupid handoff. I just don't see the commander's defense being able to slow the Lions down. And if the If, the If, the Skins who. By the way, I love this team. I even bet them to win the Super Bowl at like twenty two. Well, I love Daniels. I think he's gonna be amazing. I just think they're they're a great story and they're gonna you're gonna hear from this team in the future. But now you're asking them to go on the road against a juggernaut offense that is going to not be stopped. So now you have to score with them. Well, there's not gonna be anything bullshit about it. Well we got inside the ten eight hundred times and we didn't get it in. Well, you better get it in because if you don't get it in, you're gonna get blown out. And I think that's what's gonna happen. I think the luck is finally where the fortunateivity. While was I don't agree with Adam Turnoff that they're the most lucky team in the history of the NFL, I do think they've been quite fortunate this year. I don't see it. Lions minus nine and a half this week. I think it's I think the storybooks coming to an end.
I have said all year. I have said all year, they are a playoff team that could maximum win one player. So nothing about that.
No, uh no, no concern that the Washington franchise owns the lines in the playoffs. Three now in the history of the Grave franchise. Yes, Wayne Fawns, I remember the NFC championship game in nineteen ninety two. That was a spectacular forty one absolute thumping. Yes, Mark on the.
Side, I thought, Darryl same age. That's about when I start like I watched football those years. But I think ninety three ninety four, like those Bill's Cowboys, is probably my first memory. I don't remember, like that's right at the cutoff of like that's a game.
I just don't remember.
How old are you?
Drew?
That was?
That was Aaron Shotts's greatest football team of all time, the nineteen Washington I.
Remember I heard Barry Bonds running the ball and throwing.
They washed ever to that season before they took a loss, that we were we were talking. You know, they knew those guys were gods. In my elementary school classroom. We were talking about in an undefeated season and then the Cowboys punked them, but they still and it was awesome.
Levin to know what I want to say, And Michael Irvin kept posting up Darryl Green and Cowboys beat him. Greatest team of all time, Toddy his team of all time? Mark Ripping? How many times were you just sacked all year? Good trivia question? Anyone? Vin?
Seven? Was it seven?
Seven?
All right?
I thought Bonds was the quarterback that year, not Ripping. But anyways, Willie, what's your pick?
I'll go pretty quickly here. I don't have a ton that I love, as you guys kind of mentioned, as Drew mentioned, I will go under forty one and a half Texans chief I do believe that's the consensus number. I just think the Chiefs are getting healthier on defense. Watson back is going to be something that matters the defense. With and without him, there's a big difference there. I think that he Houston is legitimately good on defense and outdoors. A Houston team, you know, with a shaky offense playing cold weather on the road. I just look at like a twenty four to seventeen type of game. There's not a ton of wiggle room. But I just think Kansas City healthier defensively. Houston really good defensively, Kansas City not as explosive as in years past, you know, as we've learned. So I will go under forty one and a half here.
I have made two bets, which is convenient that we have two plays here. I have exactly that many bets. I am on the Los Angles Rams plus six versus the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the one where Fezik and I disagree on vehementley. I couldn't believe that a full six. It was a violent disagreement. In the words of Michael Lombardi, it was a violent disagreement. I violently disagree with you, Gil, I'm like violently.
H Speaking of which is that guy went to eight thousand kids.
Is he in the Hall of Fame yet?
Philip Rivers?
No, not yet, it's not eligible.
There was a guy who got.
Very upset when I was on ANG and said, I don't think Philip Rivers is a Hall of Famer. And he told me and I said, I don't want to live in a world where Philip Rivers is a Hall of Famer.
He got very upset with me.
Think I get the argument against the Rams people who love Philly, but that the Rams again they're going to be in cold weather. Everything that's going back going on back in LA with the Wildfires. It's one thing to play a de facto home game in Arizona. It's another thing to go three thousand miles to play at Philly. But I think the Rams are that team. I've always said, besides the usual suspects this year, besides the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs in the AFC, besides the Lions and Eagles in the NFC, that the Rams are the sneaky, freaky team here, that they are built in a way that fits the profile of past Super Bowl champions. I'm not saying they're winning the Super Bowl. I'm saying, of all the other teams, they have a Hall of Fame quarterback, have a good running game, they have a great pass rush. There's a lot to love about this team. And I'm sorry that Puka Nakua is exactly the kind of wide receiver I want out there against the Eagles in that environment. Tough player the Eagles. A lot of people are dismissing that Eagles performance last week as well. Listen, Jared Jalen Hurts from the concussion didn't really get the reps. That was a really listless performance. I'm not so quick to dismiss it. You're giving me six points. I will happily take the sick. Rams are right first, Drew Ski, your number two are we OPO.
We're APO, And yeah, I took the best defense in the AFC catching points in the first one, and I'm going to back the best defense in the NFC laying points in the second of my two picks, and it is the Philadelphia Eagles. And this is not really to take away any of your argument there, but I will say that there is a big picking sides at this stage is flipping coins. These are very very well understood markets, and I'm literally keying on what I think is a pretty aggressive step up in terms of style of defense that the Rams were preparing for last week compared to what they're going to see with the Eagles. In general, I look at an Eagles defense that you know, what vic Fangio has done to really kind of coach up the young guys is spectacular. I think he has done the best coordinating job of anyone this year. We can point to Ben Johnson, but he's working with so many weapons it's almost an embarrassment of riches. Vic Fangio is employing a really complex defense that kind of takes away what Sean McVay does the best, I think, and the fact that they can generate pressure with their front four pretty consistently is just kind of the huge element here. The Eagles really don't have to blitz much to generate pressure, and the Eagles were able to contain this running attack extremely effectively. The first time these team played, Karen Williams, every time he touched the ball was a minus in that head to head, And I think that just in general, the Eagles defense is going to be the standout unit here. With the support of the home crowd and the travel issues for the Rams, the early kickoff for the Rams, the short week for the Rams, and in general, like there was a couple of guys get that got banged up pretty quietly in that game for the Rams offense, that I think is kind of good. You know, everybody's playing hurt this time of year. I know that, but you know, if they are step slow, and if the Eagles defenses, you know, comes in, comes in and performs to their baseline. I think the Rams are going to have a tough time getting into the twenties here. And while I do not love going to war with Jalen Hurts, he is not my guy. I do think that last week a lot of his issues were related to the rust. He missed almost twenty days of practice, and you know, it felt like in a lot of ways they didn't really know what they were going to get from him where they coordinated the game. And I think with a full week of normal practice and kind of lessons learned from the tape against the Packers, you're going to get a little bit more. You know, it's cleaner offensive performance here from the from the Eagles. And on top of that, like the Rams defense was awesome last week, and Todd brought it up that they've been on a little bit of a heater. They do one thing well and that is generated interior quick pressure, and the Eagles have the perfect counter to that, which is the best interior offensive line of football. And I think that in general, if you are not getting quick pressure against Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown and DeVante Smith, are you know, be able to create separation against a cornerback unit that is bottom half, if not bottom ten in the NFL, then I think the passing game is going to look a lot cleaner here. Similarly, the screen game with Saquon Barkley is going to be very difficult for the Rams to have, you know, just perfect tackling against and and yeah, I'm just in general seeing a pretty balanced attack here for the Eagles against a Rams team that's going to be stuck in mud, against a better defensive styling that kind of is hand in glove to stop them. So Eagles minus six for me. And yeah, it's painful because the biggest win of my life was Rams Super Bowl in twenty twenty one and uh, Cooper Cup getting that m VP and h it, I don't, I don't, I'm not seeing it this year. They needed like the Rams could win the Super Bowl this year, but they needed the Packers to play a better game. They just needed Packers to play a cleaner game and get it right, get knocked the knock the Eagles out, and then the Rams are are on their way to New Orleans. And I think this is the one opponent that they match up poorly against.
Well when you put it that, no, I'm Drew and they okay, Todd, because we got to go Will out of here. So let's uh, let's race through. What's you're saying.
I'm going to go under in that same game. I think that the Rams defense has really been playing well.
We've already talked about that. I think the Eagles defense is elle illegally. I think we're I mean their defense, granted they played horribone offense, but their defense was outstanding. I thought, you know, the Green Bay everyone's down on them because the last week's the season, But there was a couple of weeks there they were just mowing people down with their offense, and you couldn't stop their run game. You couldn't stop anything they were doing. The Eagles made it look easy defensively, so I think they're going to hold the Rams down. I think the Rams can hold the Eagles down.
Again.
We don't think the Eagles are clicking one hundred percent on offense, so under forty four to me looks good. I'll take under forty four in that Eagles game.
Wilson Hillson, I'm.
Going to go Ravens Bills. We have one and a half here, Ravens Lane. Yep, I'm gonna go with the Ravens. They played in Week four, Baltimore won convincingly by twenty five points, eight yards per play to four yards per play, and I just think Baltimore is better, and I think they're bigger. I think Buffalo is really small in the defensive line, and again, Henry, that's bad news. So I just think Baltimore is better than Buffalo by more than the gap of home field advantage, whatever that's worth. I do have some concern about Tucker. It's something we talked about, like every week he's missing kicks. He's missing multiple kicks. That's quietly flowing under the radar because they're winning blowout and you know, they scored all touchdowns last week and scrimmage against the Browns a couple of weeks ago, it was all touchdown. It was all touchdowns, no.
Field goals, no clutch field goals.
I do worry if he has to sink like a forty eight yard or with thirty seconds left, is that going to go you know, wide left or something that That is in the back of my head. But I just think Baltimore is the better team here. I am going to go with Baltimore mightus the point and a half.
By the way, it's a point, not a point A point here we go. I messed that up. I'm with you. Aimore's yeah, Baltimore is my pick as well. I've had them as number one for maybe six seven weeks. Now I think the best team in football. I've got Lamar Jackson MVP. None of this means I hate the Bills or Josh Allen. I know Bills fans think I do. I think Baltimore is just the best team in football. I think they're the most balanced team in football. I think this is their year where they win it all, and I think it starts with this one. And I think you know people are gonna still give Lamar Jackson a stigma. Oh he can't win the big playups. Well, you know that's the case until he does. And I think this is the time he does. And Derrick Henry is the ultimate counterpart against Buffalo. Buffalo is for most.
Of the year.
And I know they're getting guys back here that they didn't have the first time they played when Baltimore crushed them. But generally speaking, this year, Buffalo has been a team that has bent a lot and not broken. I think they get broken here and I think Baltimore wins it. Minus went by the way, I guess minus two and a half on guessing lines. You know, the night before when these came out and even into Monday morning, the Bills were still favored. I couldn't believe it. It has come not completely my way, but most of the way, or at least halfway to me. I mean, I think it's more. I think it's great. Baltimore's better team.
Yeah, go ahead, go ahead.
I think two. Yeah, I think two and a half is going to be your open. If it's a case next week, that seems right to me. So you're on the right train.
I need to ask in favor of Baltimore, Okay, just making.
Sure Baltimore minus two and a half at Casey next week is my fair at least I would be surprised if and if they if they beat Buffalo in the spot, they'll get upgraded again. So yeah, two and a half, maybe even three, maybe closes three. The other question is what what's your degree of confidence right now in Lamar Jackson m VP.
Oh, that it actually manifests better than fifty percent. I'm going to go sixty percent. I feel confident you.
I think actually, I think it's I think it's done. Really the ap all pro vote was was really was really surprising. It's just totally there's going to be there's going to be a lot of ballots that are Lamar Burrow Hellen, and there's going to be If there's five of those, then it's going to go Lamar.
Killy.
Are you concerned about the fact that the Ravens defense, which was crappy early in the years, has like kind of looked They've looked better than they really are playing these five games, their last five games, Giants, Steelers, Houston, Cleveland Steelers, none of those teams with an NFL offense, and that's made their defense look better than it actually is, and maybe their defense is still the crapola that we saw early in the year.
Are you concerned about that?
Yeah, I mean there's certainly competition matters, for sure, but I think in the end, who's more likely to stop who? I mean, this could be one of these games where you just got to hold Serve a couple times, or you've got to break Serve a couple times. I'm way more confident in Baltimore being able to do that against Buffalo than I am Buffalo being able to do that against Baltimore better.
I would also point out that, you know, what you're pointing to lately is a reflection of they haven't played any good quarterbacks and that their pass defense looked better. The run defense for the Baltimore Ravens has been all the worldly, elite all year, right, And if you look at what Buffalo is doing to generate success, it's they're staying on schedule. Their running attack is super is really really helping the offense broadly. And if that if you take that away and they have to just beat you know, Josh Allen, you know he can beat you through the air, but these weapons really that scary. This the passing game for the Bills really that scary, not not not in my opinion. So it was I think that matchup comes down to Ravens run d versus Buffalo run offense.
When Curtis Samuel scored for Buffalo, who's doing that game? I can't remember what they were just gushing over Curtis Samuel. I'm like, really, is that what we're doing now? Or like I think it is. Samuel is awesome. That was the Romo game.
Made the catch of the century in the back of the end zone for the Bills. That guy I don't even know how he caught it and kept his knee and bounds and everything.
That was that was incredible. All right, Teaser of the week is at current at current lines, these are the week Drew would be.
It's going to be Detroit Buffalo for me. I'm gonna tickle three and a half here with the Lino's and I'm going to take Buffalo out to eight. I'm sorry, buffal out to seven. The terrible, terrible teaser, terrible teaser.
Well, we only have a week and choose from here.
Terrible, terrible, terrible.
I'm gonna go also with Detroit because I think it's over for Kill's Washington boys. He even agrees it sounds like uh, and I'll take the Eagles down to zero.
I do think this. I don't think they get blown out. I think they put up a good performance and they lose by a touchdown.
Will I'll go Chiefs Bills just because that one, that one, one and a half, whatever it is with the Bills is enticing.
I do think it'll be a close game.
So Chiefs Bills again, not a ton of options.
I'm taking the two on what am I doing? I'm doing the Chiefs and the Lions, Chiefs, Lion.
I got to advocate if you're going to play a Chiefs Lions teaser. I think the mat says, you know, seven point teaser, it's more expensive, but but you get you get the you get them, you get it back.
But we are we are beholden to the megapod constitution, and I even really think we should be asked to pick a teaser when there's four games, to be fair. That's true, that's true. Well this will be last week.
So what do you have? Chiefs minus two and a half?
And what all right, Chiefs minus two and a half, and then what lions? What is it three and a half? Now would be a lion and a half? Yeah, yeah, all right, the final two questions of this in each and every megapot, this is actually a good one for this week, all right, of the big favorites, this is perfect for this week. So just throw out Baltimore Buffalo take the other three game, Chiefs against the Texans, Lions against the Commodores, and the Eagles against the Rams. Who is the most likely to lose? Out right?
I think it's the Chiefs, but I have a very weak opinion of that.
You've backtracked a little on that this week, haven't you.
Yeah, everybody and everybody in my circles like, don't be an idiot, Mahmes, He's gonna make these guys. CJ. Strowd and this Sexons offense is terrible, and like I am, you know why I'm in this spot where I'm backing the Texans in the playoffs and I'm still kind of stuck on my preseason rating for this team was this is going to be like a viable AFC championship team, Like I thought, you know, just looking at the talent on this team, I was like, these guys are going to be good.
CJ.
Stroud and you're two stepping forward ball And they've lost Digs, they lost Tank Dell, but they still have a pretty deep wide receiving corps beyond Nico Collins to the point where they just cut Deontay Johnson. So you know, I think, I think, I'm I'm I'm a little stuck on my preseason prior for them as being being for real and.
The data line the problem.
The thing that was weird, Like last year their offensive line was awful and they were all hurt all year long and it didn't really matter. Like CJ. Stroud was kind of protection agnostic and for some reason this year he's taken a step back. I don't know if they're asking him to do different stuff or what, But I also think a lot of the kind of modification of CJ. Stroud at the end of last year was really just the emergence of Nico Collins as a wide receiver, one top five guy in the NFL, and his absence through the middle of the season, and when he came back, he wasn't as explosive and now he looks now he looks explosive to me. So I'm pitting a lot of hope, hopes and prayers on mister Nico Collins being a difference maker.
The Vikings, by the way, beat the Texans thirty four to seven when the Texans were healthy, which will look very good on a banner up and up.
Todd most likely to lose out right of those three big favorites.
Is I think the Vikings. The Vikings are definitely going down this week. I don't know about what you guys think. I'm gonna pick the Vikings and the Indiana Fever.
Uh No, I'm going to say the biggest team to lose is going to be Yeah, I'm gonna go with the I just don't see it. I mean, I guess I'll pick the Texans, but I don't see it. I think that I think the team total for Houston is going to be under Actually, I don't think they're going to score that. If they're going to win this game, they're gonna have to win a real ugly one.
I think.
Really, Sorry, you said Eagles counts as one. Yes, yeah, I'll go with the Eagles. Pass rush a quarterback basically, have a Hall of Fame quarterback, a Hall of Fame coach, and you got a good pass rush, you got.
A shot Eagles for all the reasons will state Eagles most likely to lose out And then you have to bet a side in three of these, but you get one game you want no part of what Drew is the which of these four is the one you would least like to bet on the.
Side the it's the It's the Ravens Bills. But it's because I have a lot of interest in the Ravens futures wise, and so I'm not trying to double down at an expensive price right now. The I, like I said like at the top, this to me is the de facto Super Bowl. If they beat the Bills on the road, in this spot. I think the Ravens, I think they're home.
Dotty.
I don't want that Bills game. I don't, I don't, I don't. I have no idea who's going to win that game.
Well, I think the Lions probably roll, but I'd be very concerned about Jaden Daniels backdoor cover. So, I mean nine and a half is a lot. Defense isn't good for Detroit, So you better have some margin if you're Detroit going into that final drive.
If that's the scenario, will you and me are sharing the same brain? I I really think that people think, you know, people who think it's going to be just a runout. I'm not one hundred percenture.
Really, I get teeny tiny comment on that game. If you're considering taking plus nine and a half points with the Commanders, can I just implore you to split steak and take half on money line as well, because what do you know about these two teams? They're both going to lean into the volatility of the fourth down.
Go for it.
This is going to be a high This is going to be a big swing win probably to game, whether you're converting your fourth downs or you're not. And if the Lion of Lions missed a couple and the Commanders get a couple like you're not covered nine and a half, you're winning. And I think ultimately that I think that there's probably no better example of this that we've had all year. I don't think there's two coaches that I would say are more inclined to lean into aggressive, you know, fourth down decision making. So this is gonna be a cool game.
Will's got to run, so we got to run. Will's got other things to do. It's very busy man. Thank you Drew for everything. Tennis and football both appreciate it. Good Luck, Todd wishnev again t wish Will Hill at not the Will Hill to E's on the V and Drew Dinsig at Whale underscore Capper. I'm at beating the book. Of course, you might be watching it through that. That's why I say, of course, thanks for watching. Good luck with all your bets in the divisional round of the National Football League player, thanks for watching.
