Beating The Book: 2022 Week 7 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

Published Oct 17, 2022, 4:39 PM

South Point Hotel Casino Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews brings over 30 years of bookmaking experience to the table in this weekly series, designed to find an edge in the upcoming week's NFL betting lines. Andrews and Host Gill Alexander give their thoughts on every game on the Week 7 slate on Monday's Beating The Book podcast (October 17, 2022).

Check it down man, now down man. Yeah, the numbers told the story. Idiots will believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil. I liked good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, the Visa f Game plus I Heart Radio YouTube TV. I'll probably brought you by Ben MGM. It is Gil, Alexander, Kelly Biddlin in the house Week seven National Football League guesting lines with Christy Chris Andrews. He runs to the South Boy Hotel Casino Sports. But first, Bill, Kelly, good morning to you. You're good. I'm good, man, I'm good. I'm just staring at four and two on our NFL sheets, So I'm trying to figure out how I like broke even because that doesn't make any sense. And I'm looking at dumb live bets that that that missed. That's how okay doing live betting. He's doing, uh, doing a little accounting is what he does right now. Um, Christie, this league is drunk. You had a great week. I'm sure no you didn't. You know here's you know. First of all, talked to Michael Saturday night. Oh you must have knocked him dead. You had the Bama game he had you know, as you know, we we did good. And first of all, let me just once again say, when you fill out your application to be a bookmaker, are you a winer? Yes? Okay, you're on your way. You know. So I don't mean the wine. I guess I am a little bit. But Michael thought we did said we did good, but not like as good as you thought. We did. Same thing yesterday. You know, we won a couple. We won two huge games, Tampa Bay being upset by the Pittsburgh Green Bay not showing up at all against the Jets. So we won those two games. But yeah, I mean, I have the list here, I'll go through. I mean, we'll go through it as we talk. You know, we lost almost almost every other game. For for those who are new to the show on Mondays, this is a trip you. This is a nod to the old s Ardust radio show of the same ILK. I do not know the lines. I stay in the cocoon since last night. I guessed them. Christie tells us what he's going to post after the show. No lines available currently at the South Point. He posts them after the show. So we have a little gravitas here going and then within that exercise, hopefully it leads us towards good bets. Sincinnati got home. That was the one I was most incredulous about last week. That has happened more often than not this year. Um, maybe very fortunate outcomes. Let me just admit that every bounce has gone my way this year as opposed to lot to two previous years. Doesn't mean I was stupid then, and it certainly doesn't mean I'm smart now. But this league and I don't want to be prisoner of the moment. I will use that phrase here, but this feels like the most out of control random year there's ever been. And on the Megapod, let me just say one of the final questions of the beating the book of Megapod, which, by the way, again thanks to everybody for h for listening. It's you know, some amazing numbers each and every week, growing and growing year after year, week after week. So I apreciated on behalf of all of us there. But we always ask one of the final two questions is which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Outright, and in previous years, Christie, I would I would ask that question of whoever we're the co host now, Todd Wish, Nev, Jeff Parlay, whoever was the rotating guest, And oftentimes the answer would be, well, you know, since you ask none of them, none of them are gonna lose. But since you ask the questions team X, now it's literally we think any of them can lose. And it almost manifested yesterday with rare exception that almost all of them did. Yeah, I mean, well, the rams were pretty much in control. I'd say, you know, it is a big fa at least in the second half. Yeah, okay, I'm game. But yeah, the two too most popular picks, I would say for teasers and money line Parlay's were Green Bay and Tampa Bay, you know, and the teasers just getting destroyed. Yeah. Well, okay, before we get into the games for this week, and we go through the whole exercise and we go back and we look at yesterday's games as we go into the lines for next week. But Circus Survivor for those who are in, that started again with six thousand, one hundred and thirty three entries going into tonight. Because a lot of people have the chargers, so it could get even lower. But out of six thousand, one hundred thirty three entries, three hundred and eighty two remain just shy of six weeks in well, what weren't the two top picks Green Bay and Tampa Bay? No Rams were number one. That's been that's been the interesting thing of all these weeks. You'd think, oh my god, the number one team falls every week. Only once has the number one most popular team fallen. That was Kelly's Jaguars last week. You're welcome, by the way, just as a graphic. We do this segment every week. How how hard is this? You know, sport to handicap against the number let alone Survivor. We do a Survivor strategicy segment every week and I go through, well, here are all the candidates for Survivor. Look at that. We literally had seven choices. Charges haven't played yet. There's one green check mark on their Like you just, I'm not even upset about the Jags anymore because after yesterday, I was like like, I would have lost yesterday. That's how I felt last year. I think after the Bills lost, the Jags do the same thing. So that's that's how difficult this is. And then the other big Macro statement from yesterday. Did we see the two respective conference championships? I'm talking about the Bills Chiefs previews of them Bills Chiefs, Cowboys Eagles last night. Well, I think we definitely saw Bill's Chiefs. I think, you know, barring something completely unforeseen, in other words, a regular weekend the NFL, you know, that looks like gonna gonna be the championship game, probably in Buffalo, which is gonna be a huge home field advantage for them. You know. I think Philly is the best team, you know, clearly at this point in the season, and we're still you know, with a third of the way through, you know, so I mean, right now, they clearly are the favorite. I would say, I'm not sure about Dallas. We'll have to see how they respond with with that Prescott, you know. I mean, sometimes you know, that comes back and upsets the rhythm. Some times they they're just gonna leap miles ahead, you know. But I think right now that looks like, uh, Philly clearly looks like the favorite. I'm not sure who the second choice would be. It might be Dallas that you know, I mean, it was better Well, I don't know, I mean Niners, but I mean the whole world knew the Niners weren't going to show up yesterday. That's an amazing That was a huge loss for us. Huge. Everybody was on Atlanta. Um, you know, I don't know who the second best team. It might might be Dallas, it might be the second best. After amazing Saturday of college football at baseball with amazing comebacks by both the Padres and the Guardians, and then you had a NFL day yesterday which was, Yes, it was rife with upsets, but the first halves of the early window and the second window last night and in the late window, I should say sixteen first half field goals in the early window, seven first half field goals in the late window, which brings us to week number seven. Kelly, what do we have Thursday night? That was the first things I always forget about this, Yes, here guesses as a beat because the NFL is wagging, which of course it's it's a young cousin college football guesting lines with Kelly tomorrow for a couple of minutes. Yeah, that's always interesting Thursday night. This week he's got eight We may be hav an Okay games. Saints at Cardinals eight fifteen Eastern time. We may be have an okay game too, and four Saints too and four Cardinals. Saints lose to the Bengals yesterday. Andy Dalton seventeen of thirty two for one sixty two, one touchdown, no picks. He was sacked once Alvin Camara in nineteen nine nine. On the ground six catches for five yards two hundred and twenty eight rushing yards for the Saints yesterday in defeat. How often does that happen? Answers, like once every twenty some years. Uh. The Saints only had one touchdown on five red zone possessions. That's kind of all you need to know about the Saints not being able to get it in the end zone why they lost more than anything. Joe burrows second touchdown past of the game, though that was the big one, came on a quick pass to the left sideline that Jamaar Chase turned into a sixty yard go ahead score one fifty seven left. He spun away from Bradley Roby outran Toron Matthew Bengals first lead of the game, and it held the rest of the way. That was under the two minute mark. Uh So New Orleans falls to two and four. We got that one right on guessing lines. That was the one where I guessed three and a half and it was it never got to three all week and it barely got there. Let me just point that out. And then there's Arizona. What do you say about the Cardinals who fall to two and four? And I've said this week after week on this show that in all the NFL ridiculousness, what is the poster team for? You have no idea what you're getting from week to week is that the Chargers? Is that the Cardinals? I think it might be the Cardinals. The Cardinals managed three offensive points versus the Seahawks yesterday, versus a team in the Seahawks that had given up an average of thirty four point five points a game the last four weeks. The Cardinals got three. Cardinals now, dating back to last year, have lost eleven of seventeen, including the playoffs. They've lost eight in a row at home, which applies to this game since they're hosting the Saints. Kyler Murray yesterday twenty three or thirty seven for two, two no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked six times, ten carries for a hundred yards and a fumble lost. Enjoy the next five years of Kyler Arizona, fourth and fourth. The Seattle twenty first play at the second guarter was a three to three game. Cliff Kingsbury decided to go for it, allergic to field goals Murray and tended for Rondale Moore in complete fourth and two at the Seattle twenty three ten twelve left, down nineteen and nine late. You need two scores, chrissie. The Cardinals go for it and fail. Murray sacked. Just kick a field goal, go down, go down a score, and then fourth and three at their own fourteen down, nineteen and nine, six ten left. They had no choice. They had to go for it and converted Murray to Earth for six. With seven plays later, on fourth and eleven from the Arizona nine left, Murray was picked by Tuik Willan. Arizona never got the ball back until just over a minute left in the game, and at that point it was academic. They do get DeAndre Hopkins back here, though, and so I think Arizona, I mean, this is ridiculous, I said, Arizona minus three. But like, wouldn't surprise me if you said anything. Well, I made it pick the numbers right in between. It's one and a half. And once again I give Arizona zero for home field advantage as they should, as they well should. They're better team on the road, even though they didn't really show up yesterday. Uh they're running. They have no running game except for Murray scrambling out of the pocket. They have no running game at all. Do you have some injuries in the backfield too? Though? Okay, well there's we stuff to bet the games that are being played. By the way, we lost both these games just involving these teams. You know, there's a ton of money on Seattle. I couldn't get them off Seattle. I ran it lower than anybody all week. And the New Orleans game, you know, same thing. I had Cincinnati as high as I could all week. I said I was gonna do that didn't matter, and I think we got the three yesterday at one point on Cincinnati. Um again, I couldn't get them off Cincinnati, so that we lost both these games. Like I said, we we lost a whole bunch of games yesterday. We just want some high profile ones. But I make the game pick. I'm gonna wind up open it one them and be below the market here. I know the game opened, like I want to say, mostly twos and two and a halves. So the sharp money last night took took the dog, and I'm gonna I'm gonna be under the market with A one. I had the Cardinals yesterday. They were one of my two losses and millions this team is. It's like, you're so based on my guests, you'd be like, oh, you should run to bet the Cardinals. No, so I do like the DeAndre DeAndre Hopkins will play this game on Thursday night. And by the way, Murray also got sacked six times. Besides yeah, that that doesn't help. So I don't know, Like, does it make me want to race the bet the Cardinals? The answer is a resounding hailes. No. Yeah, I think Jamis might be back to and I'm not sure. There's a huge difference in my power ratings between the two. Yeah, we don't know if it's a Dalton or Jamis at this point, I don't know. And does it matter? As you said, boy, that's a game, what a poster child game? That is Thursday and here are two teams that you have no clue what you're getting New Orleans, enjoy Amazon coming back. More guessing lines Weeks seven, numbers game, Visa the sports betting that this episode is brought to you by Yes on Prop twenty seven and DraftKings. Half the country already allows online sports betting for adults twenty one and older. It's time to let California fans in on the action. There's no good reason your friends in New York, Chicago, Phoenix, Portland, and Boston can bet online while Californians are still forced to deal with shady bookies. Prop twenty seven insures California finally catches up. So vote yes on Prop twenty seven. Gail, Alexander, Christie Andrews guesting lines for Week seven in the National Football League. Kelly Bilin in the house as well, Kelly, we go to Sunday that we do first game on Sunday, one o'clock Eastern time. Falcons at Bengals. Every one of these matchups is gonna see ridiculous, though, how do you bet this? A t S? Falcons at Bagels three and three in the standings, Falcons three and three Mangals in the standings. Marcus Mariotta Marriott Hawaiian pronunciation thirteen of fourteen yesterday, completed his first thirteen passes, had one nonsense in completion at the end, thirteen of fourteen for one twenty nine, two touchdowns, no picks, wasn't sacked, excuse me? Was sacked twice. Six carries for fifty yards and a touchdown. The Falcons were nine of fourteen on third downs. They were out gained by the Niners three eighty nine, but the Falcons had a one sixty eight to fifty advantage in the rushing column. The big stat of course, let me guess turnovers plus three in turnovers, it's all you need to know. First one was Jeff Wilson junior fumble that was recovered by A J. Terrell, who then had a fumble of his own recovered in the end zone by Jalen Hawkins to give Atlanta fourteen to nothing leading the first quarter. San Francisco did get it back to fourteen and fourteen to Brandon Yook touchdowns, but Atlanta immediately responded with a touchdown drive and the Niners never scored again. Atlanta gets it done in your worst game of the weekend, you said, Atlanta, San Francisco your worst result, and I was gonna win this game. Yeah, the whole world knew. Cincinnati, on the other hand, we just talked about. They get by New Orleans, they get their only lead late, and that holds Joe Burrow thirty seven for three hundred three touchdowns, no picks, Zack three times, four carries for twenty five yards and to touchdown Jamaar Chase seven seven catches rather a hundred thirty two yards to touchdowns. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to allow a second half touchdown this season. How about that for a little random stead They've outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter this season forty three to fifteen, including nine to three yesterday against New Orleans. Cutting to the Chase, Cincinnati minus perhaps see what I did there, Cincinnati minus four and a half. I don't quite like your number better. I'm my numbers came the five and a half. Uh, it's six pretty much everywhere, Okay, bingo time, I'm not gonna dicker with the six just being half a point off bingle, So I'm gonna go six. But you know, you know I had the highest QBR of the day, Marcus Mariota, uh eight and he's played well. The team, you know, mistakes, it's awesome. Yeah, would you say at one incompletion? I think, yeah, so he's really played well. They're well coached, and yeah, you know, I didn't I certainly didn't see this coming. I thought they'd certainly be among them. We will talk about the other team. I thought it was gonna be the worst team in the NFL in a later game. But they're they're playing well, They've covered every number, and uh, you know, I don't know, still think that the Bengals, not that they were lucky, but they pulled out a win yesterday, you know, and bad games for both these teams for me. But six, okay, another one of these where you're like, I don't know if I want to race the play Atlanta catching six. There so volatile here. I mean, I think seven would be a take, But I don't think six is gonna make you pause. Next Lions at Cowboys, Lions going off a bye, Lions coming off by first time we've been able to say that this year at Dallas. Dallas falls to four and two yesterday last night, case you missed it, losing to the Eagles. Pretty interesting ball games too, because the Eagles let it twenty to nothing, Dallas came all the way back to make it twenty to seventeen, and then a sort of soul crushing drive for the Eagles to put it away. There were some other shenanigans. We'll get into it right here. Cooper Rush. Cooper Rush had a one point zero passer rating in the first half. That's at um one point zero, ladies and gentlemen, And it was, as we mentioned, twenty to three at the half. Anyway, was Let's start from the beginning. Fourth and three at the Dallas thirty eight three twenty eight left in the first quarter, scoreless game. Eagles go and convert hurts the Brown for eleven Seven plays later, fourth and fourth at the Dallas ten with eight seconds left in the first quarter and a neutral zone infraction from Dante Fowler Jr. Sanders from five out seven and nothing. Philadelphia first play the second quarter, horrible neutral zone in fraction there to give the Eagles a shot at the touchdown, and they capitalize. First play for scrimmage ensuing drive. Cooper Rush pass picked by C. J. Gardner Johnson seven plays later, hurts the Brown for fifteen fourteen and nothing, ensuing drive fourth and inches from their own thirty four after Ceedee Lamb was questionably called short of the sticks on third down and Dallas doesn't challenge it. Bad mistake. Down fourteen and nothing, nine thirty left in the second quarter. Rush incomplete pass intended for Peyton hendershot that leads to a Jake Gilliott fifty one yard field gold at seventeen and nothing. Fifth play, ensuing drive rush with another pick, this time by Darius Leigh, that leads to another j Gilliott field goal, this one for thirty four out twenty to nothing. Philly one seven left in the second quarter to three at the half, and you're like, Philly's just destroying this team. This is wow. What we're watching is the the the team that is announcing itself as by far the best team in the NFC. But instead Dallas comes out, They adjust and they start moving the ball on offense in the second half, helped buy an injury to Lane Johnson on the other side of the ball, by the way, got it to seventeen, but Philly immediately responded with that backbreaking seventy five yard touchdown drive I referred to to go back up two scores twenty six to nineteen. They they failed on a two point conversion, They got it at the one yard line, decided to go for two. Failed on the two point conversions. They were up nine, second and eight for Dallas at their own forty. Now this is where the game really, for all intents and purposes, came to a close. Down nine Dallas, trying to matriculate Rush is picked deep by C. J. Gardner Johnson again and Ceedee Lamb was wide open on the play. Defender had fallen, but Rush was hit by Brandon Graham, causing the ball to sort of flutter underthrown, and the game was kind of truly over if you didn't buy that when Brent Maher then pushed a fifty nine yard field go wide right on the ensuing drive. Ensuing Cowboys drive with one thirteen left, Rush ends up eighteen for thirty eight one one, one touchdown, three picks, was not sacked, ten penalties for the Cowboys for seventy two yards. What do you know, turnover them Christy minus three in turnovers again, those first two first half picks leading to ten Philadelphia points in that third one really the game clinching momentum of the game. The game deciding moment at the end where Philly had won it for sure at that point for all intensive purposes now, Dak Prescott said his plan is to play on Sunday, hosting Detroit. Said the eyes a return from his fractured right thumb against the visiting Detroit Lions. If that's the case, the Cowboys have gotta be double digit favorites. I'll say they're ten boy favorites. Wow. I kind of like your number better. It's seven and like a blanket. Wow. I'm assuming really Dak will play without Dak. I hate the Cowboys eight gonna. I mean, I think this team is still very good. Uh. The other thing, you know, Ezekie Allard had had a very good game issue. I think I marked it down here. He had the thirteen carries eighty one yards. I thought he really played well, which you know, I think Pollard has been certainly the answer so far this year. But Elliott played well. I don't downgrade Dallas much losing from the to this team. They made a pretty valiant comeback in the second half. I thought that, you know, they cut at the four at one point, the game cut at the three. Ye stop the game, I would have been fine with it. Um, Yeah, you know, I think seven is really a low water mark here, but I'm gonna open at seven. I'm gonna think about opening it seven and a half. But it is a blanket seven right now. But I like it higher. Uh, you know, probably about ten, you know, Prescott site unseen. I mean, but I think he's got to be worth at least a couple of points over Cooper Rush, no matter how good he's played so far this year. But I kind of like your number better. I think seven is a cheap number, and I do. Uh. In addition to you know, certain benchmarks segments we do during the week, we were referred to we do a survivor strategy and how poorly that ended up this past week. One of the other things we do is NFL Power rankings, which everybody does, right. We do it tomorrow, we would usually Tuesday after the Monday night game. And I never like when we've done Power rank as we did on primetime. Actually was like, okay, I'll put my Brier ranks out, No big deal. Right. This year though, has been fascinating and I find myself thinking about it more than ever before. And the reason is because you have three teams at the top, I have Buffalo one. I think Kelly is Buffalo one, and then pick your order between Philadelphia and Kansas City two and three. But after that it is like everybody has a different answer. And when do you remember a time in an NFL season where like, I have no clue, I can't argue with your number four and you can't argue with mine. Dallas could be that team only because that defensive front is so good that they might be the best unit out there. Because if it's like I had San Francisco at four last week, who did you have Keilly at four? You know I don't remember at at San Francisco four. They're not there anymore. So that's the thing. Like I feel indicated about the Bucks, know having underrated them supposedly with these lines guessing every week, But like some of these teams in the top ten, the Bucks, the Ramsackers, I mean, the teams are so bad the end of season nightmare and who's the second best team in the NFC? And then you you almost have to what my top ten ends up being is I give teams the excuse like Miami doesn't have their quarterbacks of them, San Francisco has a bunch of injuries, so they're every team has an excuse. I'm looking right now. I got San Francisco number four in Baltimore, which we'll get to. Baltimore could be six, and oh yeah, I got them like number five. And I'm gonna go on and tell you one thing I was right about this year is Baltimore is not that good. Well, none of none of them coming back. More guessing lines Week seven Numbers Game, Visa the Sports Betting Network The Numbers Game Sports Betting Network. Visa Pro subscribers get access to the best betting talent in the game. If you have it's the suscribe yet. If you have not subscribed yet, that is Vista as a mid season offer to make you a smarter better sign up now for just ninety nine dollars and get Visa Pro access all the way through the Super Bowl. You get everything Visa has to offer, including seven live shows and subscriber only betting guides to College Bowl season and the Super Bowl, all for less than the normal monthly rate. You also get Visa subscriber only season prep guides to the NHL, NBA and World Cup. That subscriber only season prep guides the NHL, NBA and World Cup. It's the best bet in the game. Nine for Visa pro now through the Super Bowl. Sign up at Vista dot com slash subscribe. We get tweets that beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback. We get tweets elsewhere as well. I'm just reading my own here, Chance copper Pot. Who I'm starting to believe is Kelly Bidlin. He says, Okay, not that I didn't agree with you before, Gil, but this NFL season is absolutely bonkers. It is planko. The props are planko, the sides of plinko, the totals of planko. It's all freaking planko. Why are we're betting real money on this? Bring on the NBA. That's how I know it's Kelly ring on the NBA. Just because we pointed out at which we liked just Dave the other week, it doesn't mean it's big. Maybe it's a Reek and havoc. How bad is Mike McCarthy that they obviously doesn't challenge that spot and rushes to run a plane and they didn't get it. Oh, it's it was terrible. It's absolutely terrible. We just talked about the last segment that was bad. We had another weekend of epidemic of non sneaking where it's like, just sneak the ball, just get up there, understand full forward and now it's blatant where you get your guys behind you pushing you. It's not even full ford. It's full forward and have two guys behind you push you forward, information to push you formation. But now it's let's go out of the shotgun. It's third and one. Let's go out of the shotgun. Run it thrown outside, not yet there? What are we watching? Damnaschek had a tweet? What did he have? Thursday night? We were watching that debacle. Dave Damnashek, Pittsburgh boy dribesman says, okay, Roger, you win. We're gonna watch no matter what you put out here. Well, I mean we watched every playing that game. It is true though, right, it is true. By the way, were just talking about, you know, if this is the NBA and the Magic are playing the Hornets, We're not watching it. Sorry, Magic and Hornets franchises. Pick your two teams in baseball, right, who are also rans? We're not watching it. But the NFL, come on, they're all filled and if there's a tenth game on TV, I'm pissed that I can't get it. On one of my night. If Roger Goodell tomorrow sent me an email it was like, you owe me twenty five dollars if you want to watch this weekend, I'd be like here in his immediate Roger immediately take visa without question. I would respond to a if you want to do something about that Dan Snider problem I got, then you got. I'd have a little negotiation with him. Yeah, alright, what's next? One o'clock Eastern. Still on Sunday, Colts at Titans, And if funny we look up in the a f C South still has those two teams at the top. Colts futures are back live. I don't think they ever left three two and one Colts now against the three and two Titans. By the way, the Colts yesterday didn't have Jonathan Taylor, that had Nae Mihindes. They didn't have Shaquille Leonard, that didn't have Quitty pay Just off the top of my head, Matt Ryan yesterday forty two of fifty eight for three eighty nine, three touchdowns, no picks that he was not sacked Pristine Matt Ryan only needing a field goal to win. Mattie ice thirty two yard touchdown past the rookie Alec Pierce caught it just over the heads of defenders seventeen seconds left to give the Colts thirty four twenty seven lead. They got the two point version to make it thirty four to twenty seven, and uh that held because there was very little time on the clock left for the Jacksonville Jaguars At that point, Dan Marino had sixty one thousand, three hundred sixty one yards. Well, Matt Ryan just passed him to get seventh all time sixty one thousand, four ninety nine. By the way, forty five career game winning drives now for Maddie Ice, and he's also fifth all time with thirty career games of three hundred fifty or more passing yards. Hall of Fame. Anyone sure he's like the Craig. He's gonna Craig Visio his way into the Hall of Fame is what he's gonna do. Frek Rereich also continues to talk about him postgame like he is the greatest quarterback that has ever played the game. Well, Frank Reich had like a creepy relationship with Carson Wentz to like it was like get a room, guys. Okay, That's what I'm hearing every Sunday now from Frank Frank Raig about Matt Ryan. It's like, what what what is this about? Good on? The Colts were getting done without those players three two and one. Pittman thirteen catches for one thirty four. Dion Jackson with the injuries to both Hines and Jonathan Taylor twelve carries forty two yards and touchdown, ten catches for seventy nine. The Colts were ten of fifteen on third down and they're playing. They've taken on Tennessee. Tennessee coming off the bye. Tennessee has won three straight now by a combined thirteen points. Should be noted a FC South battle Tennessee by I'll give it a little more than three because people, because the cults are still a Colts. I'll see Tennessee by four. Wow, I do not like your number better? What is it? Two and a half juice on the favorite, three juice on the dog. I got my numbers. I was overcompensating for what I thought the line would be. Yeah, my numbers came to Tennessee one. I've been waiting for this Colts team to finally wake up. Matt Ryan played great and no running game. Uh what did I have in my notes here? You probably mentioned and they had forty five yards rushing, you know, so he he really had to carry the team. You know, two best runners were out. They showed them the numbers. I made it once, so I mean I'm gonna open two and a half. They'll probably lay it to me. I'm looking the openers last night opened anywhere from pick to uh to two. So money is definitely showed on the Titans in this game. But I'm gonna have to go ahead and take a bet at two and a half. I don't want to say the Colts have arrived. I'm not going quite that far, but you know, I mean this was a hot pick early in the year. I've been the preseason and to be a super Bowl contender was not not Super Bowl contender, but I thought they'd win their division. Well that was a terrible division. So I'm not sure I'm gonna take about at two and a half, though I think I think that's okay. Listen, if I opened three, they'd wind up taking the three off me. So I had my choice right here, and I'm gonna take a bet at two and a half. I don't love any of these. Yeah, I think that was a big win yesterday. Yesterday, I mean, yeah, I came right down to the end. But like the fact that the fact that the Jaguars knew coming in the Jonathan Taylor was going to be out, nine Hines was gonna be out, and Matt Ryan still did that, Like, yeah, that was a that was the first time it was like, Okay, I'm kind of impressed by the schools team right now. One of the few games we didn't lose yesterday, it was, but we didn't win with just kind of broke even on that game. Didn't need anything. I had the Coult and the Bengals and millions, and it's just like every bounce right, let's say, up got there at the end, the Plinko chip went went went my way at the end of both of those. Yeah, I hear it. Bagels saved me yesterday. All right, still one o'clock Eastern time. Packers at Commanders, Packers at the Commodes. Packers fall the three and three. They lose out right to the Jets and I'll Washington with the extra rest here after that scintillating win over the Bears on Thursday nights, So Green Bay yesterday zero points on their first seven drives. This just in Aaron Rodgers still their quarterback. Rodgers ended up twenty six forty one for two, forty six, one touchdown. Noe Pixie was sacked four times. Tony in was as big as target. I guess ten for ninety Lazard four for seventy six and a touchdown. Fourth and three at the Jets forty six, down three to nothing. They went and failed on a pass intended for Dobbs, and we used to call him Dubs by the way, fourth and fourteen at the Jets thirty seven, down twenty four to ten. This is with nine nine left they go for They kind of had to down two touchdowns. They failed Rogers incomplete pass intended Fortunian. Green Bay did get within seventeen to ten at one point in this game late in the third quarter, but the Jets responded with a sixty six yard drive capped by a Breefe Hall thirty four yards scamper, and the Jets never looked back. Jets were kind of dominant in this game. Can I use that word pretty dominant? Let's have players, man, we'll get to them. So Green Bay falls the three and three. And then Aaron Rodgers had a really uncomfortable press conference. Someone asked him if if he thought the team was in crisis. I believe He's like, I don't know what that means. Are you wobbly? Well, i'll see what other I'll see if anybody breaks ranks and says something, but they shouldn't. Kind of paraphrasing. It was a little odd, just like all his press converence. Everything in the press converence. That was my biggest that should be noted. Oh, it was a good looking code, now that you mentioned it. It was. It was a good looking code. And then Washington um Carson Wentz on Thursday twelve two for ninety nine through yards in Washington's wind, no touchdowns, no picks, He was sacked three times. Washington only mustard fourteen first downs against the Bears. They were out game fourteen. You know the rest there were only two of eleven on third, but there were plus two in turnovers, and the two turnovers for all that mattered. Stop the Bears once on a deep drive and then uh, a muffed punt by the Bears put Washington in business. And that was really the difference in that game. Taylor Heinek could be your guy. Let's go. Does that affect your number? No, if anything, it moves towards Washington. I said green Bay minus four, actually said four. My numbers come to five and a half. It's pretty much a blanket five. Okay, dicker once again, I'm not going to dicker with that and a half point difference. I think five is fine Washington. You know, of course we lost that game too on Thursday night, six yard touchdown drive. That was That was the ball game, most uninspired win in Washington franchise history. I believe, really, you probably have a few of those on your list. Someone that someone pointed out to me, your right deal. But there was a George Allen game. They literally responded that way to me. I was like, oh, sorry, I missed that one. George Allen is the early seventies. They have to go back to find a worst one who died after having a gatorade dumped on him. Listen at the Long Beaches and we all have our kryptonite. Yeah, I think I think five is okay. I mean Green Bay. I mean, there's clearly something wrong here. You're looking at the two best quarterbacks of the last decade, neither one of them. I don't know. Is there hard in the game still Rogers and Brady I means they're hard in the game. I don't know. I don't know. And Rogers seems to give off this aura of hey, look, it's never my fault. Even though he doesn't use those words, That's how it feels to me. I think he's kind of had that attitude to ask his family and none of them talked to him. That's right. I mean, I think he's kind of been that way and it's coming to fruition now. So what's your number in the end? Five? Let's go? Heind a key, hit that pylon, baby, I'll be your friend, Aaron, just give me a coat. There you go. Uh, these games are how can I put this? Not scintillating from a fan perspective, Let's say we can find something scintilating all the other side numbers, game vicent, these sports betting that work. We got a lot to get to here, Kelly. What is next early window on Sunday Week seven? Yeah? Next up, we have the Buccaneers at Panthers. Well, the Buccaneers took away one of my survivor at Treason so many others. Buccaneers couldn't get it done against your Pittsburgh Steelers, Chrissy couldn't get it ergo. The Steelers decal Brady Tom Brady, that is Tommy twenty five of forty for two forty three and defeat one touchdown. Note picks. He was sacked twice behind an offensive line quite frankly that had issues protecting him. That's the understatement of the day. Godwin six. They had a fourth and one at the Pittsburgh thirteen, down twenty to twelve, five ten left. They went forward, converted on the two yard pass. Next play, four Nets scored on a dump off, but the two point conversion failed, so it was twenty to eighteen. And then here's where it really was decided. They couldn't stop Mr Robiski Mr Bisky, who had come in for Kenny Pickett in the third quarter after a hit that knocked pick It out of the game. Trabisky third and fifteen at their own twenty at Pittsburgh's own twenty with three oh seven left, Trabisky to Claypool for seventeen, then third and the eleven from the Pits thirty six, with two fifteen left, Trabisky to Claypool for twenty six. Trap Bisky, baby. Of course, every Steelers fan was like, well, you know pick it would have won this game by fifty five point is Pittsburgh fans are like, just right here, I'm sorry, I forgot your every second, can'ts Dan how much they hate your bisky. By the way, Trabisky is still a captain on that team after like the way he behaved dealing with this benching like they love him. You can see from Claypool after the game how much he loves your business. He had the second highest QBR of the day, ninety one two. We'll get to them. And then there's Carolina, who the Rams beat hit it oh so late. The girlfriend over there. We had a reserve survivor person in the today this morning. It's all right, Sean, you'll get another shot one day. Caroline has now lost twelve of thirteen games. They're so bad at football it's not even funny. They were outscored seventeen and nothing by the Rams in the second half. Steve Wilkes, the interim coach had to send a Robby Anderson to the locker room shortly before they end of the third quarter after he had a shouting match with the receiver's coach, Joe Daily uh P J Walker ten of sixteen for sixty yards, sixty yards of football. Then he had a neck injury. By the way, no touchdowns, dope picks. He was sacked twice. He had a neck injury. So in king jacobieson he was three or five for fifty nine, most of that though on a catch and run from McCaffrey. No touchdowns, one pick he was not He was not sacked. McCaffrey thirteen carries for sixty nine, seven catches for eighty nine. But here's the deal. The Panthers had eight first downs in this game. Eight there were two of ten on third down. They only mustered two hundred three total yards. And again it was like one sixty issue before that McCaffrey catch and run late they were out time of possession if you will. Thirty seven oh five five Panthers had seven punts and one pick on their final eight possessions of this game, excluding a first half kneel down. And again they're only they're only real points. Dante Jackson returning interception thirty yards for a touchdown for the Panthers. I bet you if you had the Panthers defense and fantasy, you'd actually be doing pretty well with them because they score. But man, do they stink and the Rams aren't any good for those of us who have the Rams and survivor. That was a sweat for a half of football. And then you're like, oh, thank god, it's against the Panthers, which is why you wanted to pick them, right and they were the biggest favorite on the board. Because the Panthers might be flirting with Remember a couple of years ago, we just picked on the Jets and the Jaguarson survivor. The Panthers are getting into that mode. Uh, p J. Walker? This according to Charles McDonald Number one, Mahomes drew three calls himself. P J. Walker did not complete a pass further than one yard down the field. By the way, is qb R five point six and it'll still be p J. Harvey forever from Tampa Bay minus eight and a half. I threw it in between the ten and the seven. Tamba Bay is no good either. Oh no, I know, I know, yeah, it's ten pretty much everywhere. My n came to ten and a half for the third Dick or the episode. I think ten is fine. I'm not going crazy with uh with with Tampa, but I think ten is okay. I don't know if they get healthy against his team or not. There's anyone to get healthy against, it would be them. I think ten is okay. So it's like Tampa Bay is so bad, but the Panthers are miserable. So, I mean, came out this morning that you know, Brady missed Saturday's walk through to go to Robert Kraft's wedding, which he didn't know was a wedding. A wedding. I didn't know that. Okay, But you know again, is that a guy that's all in? He's still he's still getting Wednesdays off too, I think, right, yeah, I mean, I don't know. It just seems to me like he's not all I don't know if there's problems with Giselle and home. You know, that's been the rumor, you know, I mean, it's more than a rum. Okay, I certainly believe that. You mean, you're not on top of that. I'm not. I'm not he didn't know it was a wedding. Cheese, No, I think I think. I think it was like a surprize wedding. That's at least that's what I looked. What I heard really like, all the people were invited to some its ent and it ended up being his wedding. He went to the event not knowing it was a wedding. There's more problem with this now because at first some it was like Robert Kraft, the owner of the Patriots, had a wedding during football season. I like, I rip on friends of mine that have weddings during football season. The owner of an NFL team at a wedding and then he tricked everybody into going, tricked it in strict the ball. I like what Gilly boys like? That was it's very George. We moved on. Yes on one o'clock Eastern time. Giants and Jaguars. Does that make me want to bet the bucks because it's no Giants and Jags five and one Giants, two and four Jags who had that before the season started. Remember how much love the Jags are getting from everybody? Yeah? Oh yeah, not here, not me, not us. I fell for him. I certainly didn't think the Giants are gonna be five and one. Though, Giants five wins surpasses their entire wind total from last year when they had four wins, and they've they've come back from hen plus point deficits in three of those wins. Meanwhile, by the way, the Ravens, the team they beat, blew a game for the third time this season where they had a double digit win. But that's a double digit lead. But that's another story for another time. When we get to the Ravens. Daniel Jones Dandy dimes nineteen twenty seven for one seventy three, two touchdowns, no picks, four sacks, four time sacked, and the Giants come from behind win over the Ravens, fourth game winning drive and fourth quarter over time this season for Dandy dimes, the most in the NFL. He's John Elway, this guy, all right? Maybe not Barkley three in a touchdown on the ground. Now the Giants, before the Giants fans go crazy. They were out gained four oh six to two thirty eight in this game, but they outscored the Ravens fourteen to nothing in the final six minutes. In one second fourth quarter down twenty to ten after the Ravens got a lamar to Andrew's touchdown that you know came a good second second and a half after the play clock went to zero. One of those. The Giants put together seventy five yard drive ending in a Daniel Jones Daniel Bellinger eight yard touchdown six O one left down three ensuing drive and this is the play of the game, third and five for Baltimore thir own forty three or four left. A premature snap in shotgun. Jackson is not ready for it. He picks it up at the balls carrams away. He picks it up on the fly while running and makes a terrible decision to throw it on the run, picked by Julian Love and after a return, Giants in business first and ten at the Baltimore thirteen. Three plays later say Kwan from one out twenty four to twenty first lead of the game for the Giants. Second player for scrimmage. The ensuing drive, Jackson was stacked by Cavon Thibodeau. He fumbled, Leonard Williams recovered and the Ravens never saw the ball again. Barkley prevented the Ravens from getting the ball back by the way when he went down after getting a first down instead of walking into the end zone. Good on, you say, Kwan. And then there's Jacksonville lost to the Colts we already talked about at fourteen straight a f C South losses on the road, lost three straight despite gashing in these uh rushing defense usually stout rushing defense or two forty three. It's big play after big play. But in the end Lawrence was twenty two one sixty three one touchdown. No Pixie was sacked four times six and twenty three on the ground for two touchdowns, et ten ten for eighty six on the ground, two for twenty two catching but in the end, sorry, fourth and one at the inde thirty two fourteen left on the third quarter of twenty one and nineteen, they went for it, got stuffed on an option play, and then fourth and one at the inde forty two five forty eight left, down twenty one, they went for it, converted Lawrence Nuckett. There's a sneak. Six plays later, Lawrence had Christian Kirk for the go ahead touchdown to go up twenty seven and twenty six. Two point attempt failed to forty eight left, but Indies game winning drive that we talked about followed and Jacksonville basically had no shot with only eleven seconds left on the clock when they're all offense, step back on the field, Giants at Jacksonville. So I struggled with this, right because one teams five and one, the others two and four. I said Jacksonville still was a favorite, but I only made him a one and a half point favorite. Once again, I like your number better. I made it one and a half. It's three, see a little bit to three with juice on the dog, I'm gonna open a two and a half. I'm gonna take them bet because you know how guys are with the three. When they see a two and a half and there's a three out there, you know it's the last two and a half they're ever going to see in their life. And the game is definitely coming three. So they'll beat down the doors and lay me a two. And I think too, And I'm not sure jack Field does not deserve to be a three point favor here. And so the number you're putting up into and half, all right, make sure the factor and quarterback changes into your own numbers when handicapping games this week. Cooper Rush versus Dak Prescott. Maybe no factory, Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinekee. Perhaps it's your pro tip for the hour. We do one every hour on Visa across every show, so that means at least twenty every day. They're all available for Visa Pro subscribers only at Visa dot Com, where you can sort with them by sport and by show. Come on, let's find something on the other side. Next the numbers told the story and hell is down on those idiots will believe in the analytics. This is a numbers game with gill Ilexander our number two of the numbers a, Visa, the sports betting Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa App Game, plus I Heart Radio YouTube TV, all proudly brought you by bet MGM, Nevada. Oh, bat On Rouge, don't wander, forget about Baton Rouge. How about that LSU performance? By the way, this weekend nice it's skill Alexander, Kelly Bilin here as well, Christie Andrews. That voice you here is that of Christie Andrews. Runs a south Point Hotel casino sports book right behind us from where we broadcast the majestic south Point Hotel casino. Can we call majestic? Yeah, sure, it was majestic. This week we had the south Point four hundred, which you know they're not big sports bettors, but boy, you're like beer for breakfast. This was the place. But we had a monster hand. And I mentioned to you during the break biggest Saturday, biggest college football handle of the year on Saturday, biggest NFL handle of the year's Sunday. It will not be that way this week. Terrible college schedule and a terrible NFL schedule. My parents went to a NASCAR Really, there was a NASCAR event before I ever did, which was one of the big upsets in our family history. And I remember asking my mom after it was so how do you like it? She was gilly it was so loud. That was her big take. She had other things to say, but I won't say before for the air, I can never been, Kelly, you ever been, never been? Never would you like to go? I actually I would like to go to one sometime. Yet, if it's not on if it's not on a football Sunday, right right, I can't go to something. By the way, about Robert Kraft's wedding, it was in fact a surprise wedding. I got that right, Jay Sullivan. We have like correspondence all the way. Well, that's a that's a good one. That's a good question. No, I think she knew Jay Sullivan, who's always out here at the South Point. You know, we love Jay, he said. Craft wedding was scheduled on the only open date that Elton John had on his schedule. John wanted to poor perform at his quote unquote friends wedding, so Craft accommodated him. It was announced as they kick off and a touchdown party, not revealing the occasion was a wedding. It was reported that most guests were completely taken by surprise and didn't know it was a wedding. By the way, in a tenants not only yet Tom Brady eighty one year old Robert Kraft marrying Dr Dana Blomberg. For those scoring at home, Tom Brady was there. So it was a whole bunch of patriots, Randy old Dr Bloomberg. Oh, that's a that's a good question question. I got another question to Doulton John perform Is that that part of what you just said, Well, you know, we can turn this in an entertainment tonight but I got so many questions. You duped your friends into a covering to a wedding. Were interesting in these games, apparently, But we haven't gone through what we haven't gone through one hour of guessing lines at any point this year without having like, you know, value isolated. I have nothing so far today. Yeah, I got nothing up to all the games we've done so far. I think Dallas you like, yeah, Dallas, maybe because that I am that could be uh data blomberg age. Since since you asked, we got tweets beating the book. Thank you, by the way, Jay Sullivan for clarifying all that last week. Great guys, great guy. Uh Kate Bender twenty three, Kevin Bay says, do you think the fact you don't know who's going to win in the NFL adds to the enjoyment? People say baseball is losing popularity because it's too slow, But don't you think part of it is that you can probably name ten of the twelve playoff teams before the season. Yeah, it's probably something to that. By the way, I have a baseball rant tomorrow as well about about that subject, but kind of not that subject. This is from and by the way, way to go Padres, Come on, guardians, make our division rounds two for two today. This is byro looks like my book took down the Cowboys Lions line after y'all segment on it. Yeah, I don't think that was us, but thank you for making the correlation. Uh, this is from a whole bunch of web Murphy twelve eight hundred, twelve thou eight hundreds, yill. I've been watching and betting football for forty years. I've got Prime video, and after watching the first three games on Prime, I can honestly say there's no chance I'll watch this third day game. Love the show. Thank you Alpha's Sports Betting. Heinek is a better QBR and seems to have more respect from the team. You could say he really knows how to command a room. Oh and tell you all my buddies like the first week, they're like, let's take command. Gil wanted to punch him in the face. Not you, Alpha Sports Betting. My friends Dom Perry on the way this NFL season is going only Joe Peter's Survivor hedging strategy by Halloween. His Survivor strip hedging strategy was awesome. But I will say this, the chance of this getting to Christmas now is a large underdog. Large underdog at this point. I didn't make it chance. Copperpart also wants to know how his Bailey Zappy Rookie the Year plays looking now one now at six one, he says, it's still gonna lose, likely, but I did channel your energy from under a cloud of smoke. Jason Weingarn, gotta make sure al right on and on we appreciate all the tweets. We'll get to more in a bit. So, Robert seven year old, that's correct, Okay, the prophet Mohammed, yes, to take half your age from man. Huh, half your age ad seven, that's a perfect marriage partner. Robert Kraft right there, that's exactly what he did. Yeah, and you round. Yeah, So you're saying that Robert Kraft tribesmen took advice from Mohammed other tribe. Yeah, you know, I mean into this still at a wedding during football season last early game one o'clock Eastern Browns at Ravens, Cleveland's two and four, Baltimore's three and three, Cleveland three to three game yesterday, uh against the who they played, the Patriots, wasn't three to three game? Fourth fourth and one at the New England eighteen fourteen minutes left in the second quarter. They sneak and they failed. Apparently sneaks can fail. Jacoby were set twenty one of forty five to sixty six, one touchdown, two picks. He was sacked four times. Nick Chubb was held below a hundred yards from scrimmage hundred total yards from scarbage scrimmage for the first time this season. And again we go to the turnover column. The Browns were minus three in turnovers. They had four, the Patriots had. That led to seventeen New England points. And then there's Baltimore. Baltimore we talked about against the Giants. They've led every game this season the Ravens have by double digits. They're the only one of those teams and there's forty instances of that happening where a team has led every one of their first six games by double digits. They're the only one of those teams of forty instances to ever do that and go three and three. It's time. We cannot ignore that. We can't ignore it. We can't Lamar seventeen of thirty two for two ten, one touchdown, one pick. You sacked twice, seven carries for seventy seven yards, but that big fumble lost. In fact, if you look back at the last three games, Lamar has three touchdowns and four picks. Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake had himself a game ten carries for one nineteen a touchdown. Mark Andrews filling up the box scores seven catches for one of six and a touchdown, but they had ten penalties for seventy four yards. And again, just to review, Baltimore collapsed against Miami Week two. You may recall they allowed four touchdowns in the fourth quarter forty two to thirty eight law us. They blew an early seventeen point lead against Buffalo in Week four. You may remember that when a late pick by Jackson gave the Bills an opportunity to drive for the game winning field goal. And then yesterday up twenty to seventeen um it was actually twenty to ten, and then seventeen when Jackson had a third down sneak we talked about to the Baltimore forty six. Oh, we didn't talk about this before the uh pick. They had a third down sneak to the Baltimore forty six for an apparent first down, but they had an illegal formation nullify it, and then the premature shotgun snap after that on third and five that went past Jackson, then he picked it up. Made the dumb decision, a poor decision, I should say to uh throw the ball. Desperation passed, intercepted by Love return to the thirteenth. They did outgain the Giants by two or fifty six yards two or fifty six to ninety in the opening half, but it was only ten to seven to fifty six to ninety, and they only led ten to seven. Baltimore by it by seven by a touchdown. Because Cleveland is no good. That's exactly what my numbers come to. Seven. I see six and a half one six hanging out there. I gotta say I like the six and a half a little better because I, like I talked about previously on the show in past episodes, what's the next number? Is it gonna be seven and a half? Well, it can't be seven half of this bonmore team that, like I said, you cannot ignore the leads they've blown, you cannot ignore the Jackson is not playing that well. So I'd like six and a half a little bit better. It might wind up going to seven, but I don't see it one to seven and a half. So I think I'm an open six and a half instead of the seven, which is exactly what my power ratings come to. Baltimore is a bit of a conundrum. Two. Like I love Lamar Jackson. I love Lamar Jackson. It's like, do you trust them ever because he has those kind of games? Yeah, I mean, you know, they made it sound like the Baltimore franchise is an idiot for not putting Jackson's contract exactly the same thing that the Shawn Watson got one bad contract doesn't set the president for a whole bunch of them afterwards. Speaking of which, by the time to Shaun Watson is eligible play, this season will be over for the Browns. A little love golf, Clas Andrews right there. Absolutely, you don't have to pay this because one guy got paid too much? Does the meaning to overpay the nights game? Okay? Do you know how the agents look at that? They're like, that's the market, that's the market. Yeah, and then they like, you know, you watch the talking heads on ESPN, Baltimore was there are a bunch of idiots for not matching that. I mean, that was one of the worst, the worst, probably the worst contract in the history of pro sports. And I don't have to match that if I'm an owner of Baltimore Golf class from Kelly Bilin. The ultimate sign of praise. What's next, Kelly or afternoon afternoon? Yes, four or five Eastern time? Jets at Broncos. Oh, good Jets, really excitement. Jets are four and two, baby, I mean the Jets have players good on the Jets. They drafted so well we knew it at the time. It's manifested. Zack Wilson didn't have that good of a game. Ten of eighteen, ten forward passes complete for one dred ten yards, zero touchdown zero. Pixie was stacked twice Bruese Hall. How much did we love Brueese Hall at I was stayed twenty carries for one sixteen and that big touchdown that regained the two score lead for the Jets late one of eleven on third downs. Have a game, quinnin Williams though, on defense, two sacks, three quarterback hits, one forced bumble, one block field goal. That's the game. Braxton Barrios twenty touchdown run that put the Jets up ten to three with eight nineteen left in the third quarter, and they scored two twenty seven later when Pat O'donnald's punt attempt was blocked and returned by Will Parks to the house seventeen to three. Green Bay was swimming upstream thereafter, and then Denver coming off a bye here, oh god, Denver site on tonight, Denver tonight. I'm sorry, Denver tonight against the Chargers. Pardon me, so Denver on a short week, but sight unseen. I mean, I'll just put a placeholder. We can't make the Jets of favorite Denver minus one and a half. I like your number, Bennor. I was saying one and aver two, but it's three Denver pretty much everywhere, even three with some juice on the favorite respect, I'm gonna open it three, just you know, because I don't want to go crazy until I see the Broncos tonight. But uh well, this Bronco team is not that good. And you're right though, that Jets finally have a couple of players, and Robert Sala I think has a chance to be a good coach. He's got receipts, he's got he's got a chance. You know the Jet skin poison almost anybody, but I think Robert Sala has a chance. Just when the Mets disappointed Jeff Parlay, now he's being sucked in by the Jets. Oh boy, could the Jets be a playoff team? Could they coming back? Guessing lines? Looking for value Numbers game Visa the Sports Betting Network The numbers game on Visa, the Sports Betting Network. Visa Pro subscribers get access to the best betting talent in the game. If you have not subscribed yet, Visa has a mid season offered to make you smarter better. Sign up now for just nine and get Visa Pro access all the way through the Super Bowl. You'll get everything Visa has to offer, including seven live shows and subscriber only betting guy's, the College bull Season, and the Super Bowl, all for less than the normal monthly rate. You'll also get Visa subscriber only season prep guides to the NHL, NBA and World Cup World Cup coming up in November. It's the best bet in the game. Visa Pro now through the Super Bowl. Sign up at visn dot com slash subscribe. Kelly got World Cup fever? Oh yeah, watch out for that Polish side I think they're real talentletip heading into this year's World Cup, that's a no okay, so just let me interpret. I gotta tell we're gonna do a monster handle on World Cup this year. I'm sure what time will games beyond day? So that's what we're gonna do, a big hand on it. Yeah, I mean, it's just gonna be like betting tennis like I do like all year round, where the matches in the middle of the night, but this is Betton World Cup games. But it's the middle of football season. No one's gonna care. We'll bet it though, but if you can't watch it, yeah, it makes it tough. It's like always those a lived you know what I mean, that we're that the middle of the night and then they replay them, you know what I mean, like in primetime nbceries. I just want to say this because it cursed to me that I need to say this. People just landing on this show for the first time, Like, boy, this guy is really like sour on the NFL, I'm having a great year, right So on the podcast Beating the Book podcast, I am thirteen and five. We do three picks a week, so I'm thirteen and five, a t s in millions a little more pedestrians seventeen and thirteen. I'm not winning anything doing that. But you know, in real life, nothing wrong with seventeen and thirteen. So it's not like I'm coming from a position of not doing well with this. I'm just coming from a position of I have not recognized much value in this card yet at all for week seven, And we don't want to just make it up. We just want to be honest. By the way we get tweets at beating the book, no one. No one seems to care about the football games. They seem to care more about Robert Kraft, Harold Irving, will TB twelve take the que from Craft and uh marry someone half the age next time? How about betting Ombre? Betting ombre? Question for the new bride? What first attracted you to the billionaire Robert prise parties? I mean, where do we begin? Oh? Bad? All right on that though. How about Texans at Raiders four oh five Eastern time? All right, we talked about two teams off of by yes we are, well there you go. Texans at the Raiders. Texans are one three and one. Remember they were the last winless team in football before they won. And then there's the Raiders, who are one in four, who are really the team that has underperformed record wise of their actual let's say skill set, and it's just been one tough loss after another for the Raiders. The most recent of which we'd remember was against the Chiefs where they were up what were they up? Seventeen and nothing in that game, I guess the Chiefs. Let's just cut to the chase. I'll say, Raiders, it's more than a touchdown. I'll say minus seven and a half. Uh. Once again, my power rings come to exactly six and a half. It's seven everywhere. I like the seven better because this is a case where we're looking at what's the next number. I think seven and a half is more likely than six and a half, even though that's what my power always to everybody. Power ratings is just a place to start that that don't get married to your power ratings. Can we go back to what you were just saying there, because people might have missed your first explanation about that you, as a bookmaker, are trying to anticipate the more likely tick upwards or downwards, so that informs what you're going to put the number at initially, Yeah, And I mean, obviously I could be as wrong as anybody else. But what do I think? I think seven and a half is more likely than six and a half. So that's why I have no problem opening at seven. It's a more just I guess what I'm saying is, it's a more distilled way of looking at anticipating line movement. Well, I think when you're debating between two numbers, you know, again, as a bookmaker is a handicapper, You're you're in a different area. But as a bookmaker, I'm looking where where am I likely to go? Where my most likely to move to next? I think seven and a half in this case is more likely than six, And I would imagine you're rarely wrong about that. Let's move on, got it? He caught it. I can't go by it. He's like, okay, all right. Is there anything else we need to say about the Texas the Raiders? I mean, the Raiders are just the greatest four teams of all time. I think we can say that. Are the Giants one of the worst five and ones of all time? So are the Vikings? And literally the only difference between them in previous years. Is that the Plinko chip goes there. I'm captain Viking and one are the worst five and one teams. Kelly was in fact a Viking at all. Right, Next up, Hawks had Chargers. Okay, Chargers haven't played yet. They played at night. By the way, do you have any play on the Monday night game? I mean lean Chargers definitely here tonight, but I got nothing. I think I'm gonna take my small winning week in the NFL and be happy. Boy this got up to six huh or no, I'm sorry, I was looking at it. I already told you what I guess. I guess this here for six, for this one on this one coming game tonight, four and a half is what we're at here. Well, so, so here's my self loathing. At the beginning of last week, I was like I had to survivor entries. I was like, I'm gonna go Rams and I'm gonna go Chargers, and I switched the Chargers to the Bucks. So I hate myself right unless the Chargers lose tonight, in which case I will go back to signing a peace treaty with myself. But Chargers minus four, um so then so my so my betting and survivor brain is now rooting actively against the Chargers. So I don't hate myself. But if I were actually to bet this game pre flop, my answer would no, thank you, I'll watch it and I'll bet in game you two key. Yes, Yeah, I'm and I'm a little surprised. Chris. I don't know how you guys are doing here, but it seems like we've seen Broncos money in the market and that that surprises me a bit kind of it. I opened the game six. That doesn't surprise me, I kind of I thought six was a good number. We're down to four, and I mean the money has definitely showed on Denver in this game, which I'm pretty surprised. Again, would any outcomes surprise you tonight? Like the Broncos beat them, wouldn't surprise you? If the Chargers won by seven, wouldn't surprise you? Seattle three and three at the Chargers next week. Geno Smith in the Seahawks win over the Cardinals again, where the Cardinals only could muster three offensive points against a previously sieve of a defense in Seattle, Geno Smith twenty of thirty one for one, no touchdowns, noe picks. He was sacked five times, six carries for forty eight yards. It is Geno Smith's third straight game without a turnover, and the Seahawks again did not allow an offensive touchdown. They had given up eleven touchdowns the previous two games. Kenneth Walker the third in Rashad Penny's absence in the touchdown. And I'll say it again, him saying a week after week, we all owe Pete Carroll and apology. Stand in line. All you people who have been killing Pete Carroll who can't admit that you were wrong, well admitted. They are doing well on the ground. And you know what that whole Geno Smith drew lock thing. He was right about it. In the end. We want to kill him, but he might be right. Sure, sure, sure, but we could kill I'm why can't I kill him for what he's done in season's past. You can plot him from what he's doing this year. Are That's what I mean. I'm not looking he's having a great year this year, having a great year. We wasted part of Russell Wilson's career. Yeah he did that, Yeah, I mean he was horrific in those years. I'm just saying this year. I'm talking about specifics of this year. We all owe him apology. I had them Pensilvana is the worst team in the NFL. Obviously I was, and Geno Smith is good at football, continues to lead the league in completion percentage, and itways mentioned earlier. I guess this at six, I have the Chargers minus six sit unseen. My power ratings come to seven. That's pretty much what it is. Everywhere we talked about what's the next number. I don't know what the next number would be here, might be seven and a half, I don't know. But I think seven is a good place to start because I really don't know what the next number would be. And of course Chargers site on scene tonight. If they I mean again, would they surprise you if they beat Denver by twenty one tonight? Not really? Not me, I mean, or if they lost out right again not me. So I think seven is a good place, whole restaurant to start. I hate to keep harping on Survivor obsessed again. Three hundred that's just the circle one specifically, how about your left in circle three hundred and eighty two out of three? So we're talking six point two percent of the entire pool you left, I got one left six two percent. Now the Chargers tonight, forty three people have the Charges. Forty three entries have the Chargers. I would have been one of them if I had stuck to my guns. So I am now actively rooting for these forty three to go down. Sorry forty three from charges people, But if that happens, then we're talking in that over fifty percent of the field went down this week. Here here are the percentages every week in this particular, but this is a reflection of survivors around around the country. Week one, fifty six point two percent of circus survivors fell week to twenty five point zero seven percent. Week three two point nine six percent, Week four point one six percent, last week forty one of the remaining survivors, and this week so far forty six percent. This is wow, We're not getting to Christmas. We're we're gonna get to Thanksgiving, though, But like the notion of saving teams for Christmas, forget it anyway. That's how many people have the Chargers tonight, which makes them what the uh, the fifth most popular team this week. You know I'm done because I have the RAM so I'm out of that sweepstakes charges the sixth most popular team this weekend Survivor. Do you imagine there's some people out there like, I gotta get that seventh mill. I gotta says not enough, I gotta say the room. But as I said last year, those some of those guys who got to the end, they were all about the seventh mill. So let me not be smirched of those who might think that way. Coming back one more afternoon, some primetime games, It's a numbers game at Vista these sports Betting Network, the Numbers Game. Sports Betting Networks back on the numbers game. Back on guessing lines for week number seven in the National Football Leagueial Alexander Chrissie Andrews, Kelly Biddlin here as well, and once again, uh this goes on the podcast feed on the Beating the Book podcast feed. If you missed any part of this, um, we are just amazed again thankful of the numbers you. We actually air this. We do this for two hours and then it goes on the podcast. The numbers are still great on there, so we do it that way. Also the megapod on Thursdays on the Beating the Book Feed but Numbers Game Tuesday through Fridays on a Numbers game feed. Just to sort of let you know how we parse out the podcast. Here, we have one more afternoon game for week seven, Kelly that we do one more of the Kansas City Chiefs at the forty niners. Well there's a game. Yeah, and that was like the Big Bad Division. So Casey we talked about. Maybe we didn't talk about because Buffalo, Uh, we didn't talk about. So Casey and Buffalo that was the Markey matchup obviously of the weekend. You know, Casey had eliminated Buffalo at Arrowhead in the divisional round famously last year in January or this year, I should say, but last year's last season in January, when the team's combined to score twenty five points in the final two minutes of regulation and the Chiefs wanted on the first possession of overtime after winning the coin flip. Maybe the most awesome, amazing game in recent night history or all time, and it was the a f C Championship. People tend to forget that Kansas City eliminated Buffalo in the a f C Championship the year before that at Arrowhead. Well not yesterday, fourth and two at the Buffalo fifteen two left in the first quarters, zero zero game, Patrick Mahomes Russia's for seven yards. Three plays later, he's picked by Caier Elam in the end zone and were you were you like me where You're like, whoa, that's Patrick Mahomes throwing that pass? What was he doing? But you know, he gets away with that flip stuff all the time. I always at flips. Some mouth that that was one I could I could live with, I guess, but it was still surprising to see fourth and goal with the case three Buffalo is uh down seven to three, six thirty seven left in the second quarter. Buffalo decides they're gonna go for it instead of kicked the field goal, and they fail alan in complete pass intended for Isaiah mackenzie. Mackenzie just fell down, by the way, that wasn't at the three. I think that the yard line wrong, but it was fourth fourth, maybe was, but Isam McKenzie just falls down and that's how that play breaks up. After the teams traded punts, Buffalo had a first intent at their own four with one twenty nine left and a half their downs at this point seven to three, owned four yard line, one nine left and a half, and this is where this game started to pick up. The Bills took seventy three seconds to cover ninety six yards, given them a ten to seven lead. That left twelve seconds the clock, and as we know from the postseason, way too much time for Patrick Mahomes one second lesson he had last year one second less down ten seven Buffalo. Buffalo even called a time out to make sure they knew how to handle this, Like, all right, remember this is the guy that got us thirteen seconds of field goal last year. Let's make sure we take care of this. Nope, Mahomes to McKinnon for nineteen. He gets out of bounds with five seconds left. Then Mahomes to Kelsey, who goes to the ground after a nine yard pick up in Casey quickly calls time out with one second left, and then Harrison Butker drills at sixty two yard field goal that honestly looked like it would have been good from sixty eight maybe more ten to ten. We go to the half. That easy fourth and three at the case forty six. Now we're in the second half. Let's let's go forward seventeen to seventeen game fourth and three, fourth and three at the case forty six for Buffalo, seventeen seventeen fourteen seventeen left. The Bills go for it and fail. Allen incomplete pass intended for digs now down seventeen, third and ten for Buffalo at their own thirty five. Chris Jones blatantly trips Josh Allen right in front of the official no call. Buffalo forced to punt. John Allen's like, did you not see that the ref was at least two ft away? By the way there was there was that that was a textbook trip. And then the Dallas Philly game, there was like a textbook block in the back for Dallas and they picked up the flag. I was like, if that's not a block block of the back, what is? Anyway, was a three out out for Casey after that, So fourth and inches down to seventeen. This is the moment Buffalo at their own thirty three, four left, snake and what do you know? A conversion eight plays later, Allan to Dawson Knox fourteen yard touchdown, past two to twenty Buffalo one oh four left, and everyone in the world is saying the same thing at this moment, way too much time left for Patrick Mahomes. Well, it turns out it wasn't enough. After a defensive hold, fifty six seconds left. Mahomes picked by Taryn Johnson. They had a spy on Mahomes. Milana was spying him. He felt a little hurried. He throws the ball Terren Johnson and for all intents and purposes, that was ball game. That didn't shock you. That one was shocking. I was like, that was awful. I had a bill. I had a Bill's ben in uh and that was, Yeah, you're sitting there and you're you're saying yourself, there's way too much time on the clock. This is Mahomes marching down the field. Here mahomest to touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked three times. Juju had himself a day five for one thirteen in the touchdown Kelsey eight for one ohweight San Francisco we talked about they lost to the Falcons Jimmy g and defeat one two touchdowns, two picks. He was not sack Kittle eight for nine, eight for eighty three for two touchdowns. I think they were both eight for eight three part me. But the Niners, as we mentioned, were minus three in turnovers in that game against Atlanta. So this is clearly the best game of the day so far anyway, And I will say Kansas City on the road against San Francisco will be favorite. Kansas City by three. That's exactly what my number is. That's exactly what is out there virtually everywhere. Be careful Kansas City was a home dog last week. Yeah, home dog to a road favorite. I'm not saying getting married to any of these trends, but just be careful that. But my members come to three, and at three, I think i'd probably passed. You act like you've done this for forty years and it's forty three. But who's counting? And Gil, what's the one bet I've made it so far? Chiefs on the road. And when I was making the bet last night, I thought, like, Chris is making fun of earlier. I'm like two and a half. I'm never gonna see this again. I think they Christy just spit it out our visa pro tip of the hour. Well we'll repeat that coming up. Okay, it's about I mean it's not a dent obviously, but I think I like about sixty over like the last decade or so. But against a home dog that has gone to a road favorite, the road favorite after a home dog, and Kelly, that's your Kelly's one in his account. All right, let's go to Sunday night. I think you said it right. I said it Sunday night, Steelers at Dolphins. Alright, Steelers now two and four, Dolphins fall to three and three. So many three and Three's Pittsburgh, as we mentioned, snapping of four game losing streak, missing almost his entire starting secondary, and somehow they still beat the Bucks. Kenny pick at eleven for eighteen for sixty seven yards, one touchdown, no picks, and was sacked once, pushed to the ground legally by the way by Tampa Bay linebacker Devon White, shortly after throwing a passing the third quarter pickt status going forward uncertain un a certain Steelers fans. Mitch Drabinsky came in nine of twelve for one forty four, one touchdown, note picks. He was sacked once. He he lost the starting job to pick it at halftime of the loss to the Jets a couple of weeks ago October two, But as I mentioned earlier, he remained one of the team's captains, kind of tells you how he a testament how he's handled his demotion. Drabinsky came in for Kenny Pickett to throw a six yard touchdown past in the fourth quarter, and then so much more. As we mentioned Claypool seven for nine, six and a touchdown um fourth and one at the Tampa Bay eleven earlier in this game, nine ten left in the first quarter, they went for it, converted on a rush. Two plays later, pick it to Harris six yard touchdown pass, first touchdown past the Pickett's career put Pittsburgh up seven and nothing. They never trailed in this game, but as we mentioned earlier, the big plays from Drabinsky late third and fifteen converted third and eleven converted both to Claypool to clinch the game for the Steelers. Way to go, m R Bisky, Yeah and listen his I think it has told you. His tube yard was number two in the on yesterday's performances, only surpassed by Marcus Mariota, another guy coming off the trash heat. But Steelers played hard. They played hard yesterday, they really did. And then there's Miami three game losing streak now scoring seventeen or fewer in each They had a fourth and one at their own thirty four down ten to three thirty two left and the third quarter, they lined up to punt, they snapped it to the up back, they failed to convert, didn't come back to haunt the Dolphins fourth and five at their own forty six o eight left, down six need to tend Bridgewater to Hill for fourteen yards and Miami was in business. But two plays later, and this was the play of the game, second and fourteen from the Minnesota forty two four twenty two left or down six, Bridgewater to Jalen Waddle. He gets past the sticks and then he's tackled by Harrison Smith and he fumbles, recovered by the Vikings Cameron bind him in. Two plays later, Dalvin Cook went fifty three yards of the house and after a two point conversion to ten ball game three fifteen left for all intense purposes. Bridgewater did throw a pick on the second play of the subsequent drive, just in case there were any doubts that it wasn't ball game. So Skyler Thompson ended up seven of thirteen for eighty nine no touchdowns. Doe Pixie was sacked once he heard his thumb. Bridgewater came in three or thirty four for three twenty nine. Your guy Teddy two touchdowns two. Pisi was sacked five times. He replaced Thompson with about eleven minutes left in the first half. Hill twelve for one seventy seven, Waddle six for one twenty nine and a fumble loss that big fumble loss. The Dolphins held Minnesota to eleven first downs. They held Minnesota to two of twelve on third downs. They outgained Minnesota four fifty eight to two thirty four. Their defense sacked Kirk Cousins three times. They had seven quarterback hurries four tackles for a loss. Minnesota had fifteen drives, thirteen of which were three plays are the less, but the Dolphins had ten penalties for ninety seven yards, five on one drive, and they were minus three in turnovers. As we mentioned, led ten Vikings points, including the big There was all penalties and turnovers for the Dolphins. That was my biggest bet of the year on the Vikings, biggest bet this season. That was the most painful game I've watched, and I don't know how long. That was a terrible football game. I'll give him my guest here, you'll tell us what the number is? What the number you're gonna post after the break here? I'll say Miami minus four and a half on this one. But it looks we don't know the status of Kenny Pickett. Could be Mr r Biski and I guess we're Teddy Bridgewater. But I guess we have to check on two A two because two of them, two of might play. Now, um boy, I got minus four and a half. Will find out what Christie will post after the show on the other side, and the Monday night game as well. It's a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting that work. It's Gill Alexander, Christie andrews Kelly Bidlan we get tweets at beating the book Mark Geiger resident in house attorney. He says, is it time for Brady to go? Just my opinion? But he missed a bunch of camp is your this is your spield? Chrissy runs to New York City for a party sons. The Misses meets the team, and Pitt proceeds to stink up the joint as a ten point chalk with while blaming the offensive line. Inquiring minds respectfully requests others opinions. Thank you, well you've given yours. Yeah, he doesn't look like he's all in. Yeah. The thing is his whole career, he's been all yes. Now he doesn't. He is not all in Las Vegas. Chris chiming into that divorced new coach, no gronk, injury, written team, all various variables of merit. He says that means Bill Hooker. I switched from the Eagles to the Bucks. Then he calls himself a name, so there's that uh, and again I switched from the Chargers to the Bucks. So police Chargers lose, So I don't hate myself. Carl Knufeldt. Hey looks like Pete Carroll knew that he kept the better quarterback and got way under the salary cap. Maybe he made Russell Wilson into a much better quarterback. He doesn't say Kelly at the end, but he might as well have power play picks. Do you see any value in Travis Kelsey as Offensive Player of the Year. Have yet to see a team find a way to stop him. Raiders were close quote unquote holding him to twenty seven yards, but he still had four touchdowns. So we're talking about ap offensive Player of Year, which traditionally does not go to a quarterback. Cooper Cup, the ratings go to a tight end. Though if there ever was a tight end, this guy. It's not a bad call. Yeah, I can see it. Are you right? The only quote unquote held on the fourth Dutch downs and I don't know about that. You're short shots right now. Jalen Hurts five to one, Justin Jefferson six to one, Cooper Cup plus seven fifty Kelsey all the way at fifty to one. I understand the thinking. Alright, So we went back to the Sunday night game. I had Miami minus four and a half hosting Pittsburgh. And your number is my number comes to six and a half. It's seven everywhere. Wow, I have a lot of I have a deep lack of faith right now in this Miami team. Laying seven seems high. Pittsburgh's defense is good. They play, I mean, you know, they're missing you know, half their defensive backfield and still played really well, you know against Tom Brady. You know, so I think sevens too high. You're right, I mean I should. Even as that comes out of my mouth, I'm like, well, where does Pittsburgh's defense being good end. And where does Tampa Bay sucking begin. Well, it's a little bit of both. Really. You know, they played hard, that's the thing. They really played hard. And you know when they against Buffalo the week before, they came out like they pinned Buffalo at the three on the opening kick off something I don't know. If we're gonna win, we're gonna play hard. And next play they go ninety yards for a touchdown and and then the all the air was let out of their balloon. And then they did not play hard from there. But they played hard yesterday, and I think they'll play hard in Miami. Toot lay hard, Kelly Boteam's way, hard sheet Wallace late yea, yeah, all right, Monday night. There'll be more Steelers fans there can tell you that much. Patriots Bears A Patriots Patriots bear Bears are two and four. They got extra rest after that Washington debaccle on Thursday. And the Patriots, who I loved last week, didn't play him yesterday. But they're coming off to blowout wins. Patriots of three and three. Justin Fields was fourteen seven Thursday night for one touchdown. One. Picky was sacked five times twelve carries for eighty eight yards because Luke Getzi doesn't let him do his thing. No, you must be a pocket quarterback, and I must make you good from the pocket, and so all Bears teammates and fans and backers will suffer. Let him run, let him roll out and throw New England Bill Belichick with his three career win yesterday that ties George Hollis for second on the NFL's career list. John Dodds, excuse me, Don Shula three forty seven twenty three wins away for number one. Bailey Zappy thirty three or nine two touchdowns note picks. He was sacked twice. I think it was on I don't know if it was on a numbers game. I think it was on beating the Book of Megapod, where I said when I was making the Patriots pick a couple of weeks ago, where I was like, they might even be as good with Zappy, and people were like, you're crazy, But I was like, mac Owns has thrown tons of passes into defender's chests this year that have mysteriously bounced off, like there are two pick six. Is that they just got stupid lucky about Zappy doesn't do that. Stevenson nineteen and seventy six, seventy six on the ground, two touchdowns. The Patriots were plus three and turnovers. As we mentioned against the Browns, they did have twelve penalties for ninety two yards. They had a fourth and goal at to Cleveland two with seven thirty four left in the first quarter, they opted for a nineteen yard field goal. Of all these fourth downs we've talked about for the whole show, it finally took us to get to The Patriots were like, oh, fourth and goal at the two. They kicked a field goal. So Bill Belichick still is all about, you know what, I'm actually going to take the three points here. I don't feel compelled to go for it every damn time I got New England minus seven and a half. It's gotta be more than a touchdown. Yeah, it's funny my numbers come to seven and a half. There's a lot of seven half out there. I see a lot of aids. I like the eight better, even though my number comes to seven and a half and it's there, But I'm an open eight. I just I like that number a little bit better. I think it's who's going to beat down the doors about the Bears plus seven and a half zero people, I honestly like, I know usually I mean typically on this show at the point of the show is oh my number is so far off. Therefore I like this team. I may like the Patriots more than anything we've talked about today. Like in this money game, how is Bill Belichick takes away your best thing on offense? Write some Nick Chubb yesterday held him under a hundred yards, So what's that? I was just gonna say, what's the best thing on the Bears offense? What do you even pick? Probably fields running out of the pocket. Mean, yeah, I just keep him in in the pocket and throws him to do anyway. So the game that I had the Patriots two weeks ago was against Dan Campbell, and I said on the megaphone, I was like, I don't know how I know this, but I just know that Dan Campbell's not beating Bill Belichick. Right. Yeah, I will say the same about this game, and I will lay the points. You've had a good feel for this team so far, and Patriots from one of those teams, and I'm like, I have no idea who they are. Oh see, I think I have a better I think they're more dependable at least you know what their brand is, as opposed to the Chargers and the Cardinals and all these other teams. Were like, what are we getting from week to week? Patriots? Patriots? I think you know what you're getting. You're getting ground control offense with hopefully a quarterback that doesn't make mistakes, and they're gonna be sound to some degree on defense. I don't know. But besides the Patriots, what do you like best this week? Well? I like the Cowboys. I think I like the compos the Cowboys lane the seven, so like the Steelers taken seven, I do too. I mean, honestly, we're talking ourselves into these Those are the ones that I think raise the antent of the most. I don't see anything else really that I like them. Um, after that, I would be forced. I'm in a contest where you have to pick all sixteen games and rank them, you know, one of those against the spread or just man oh man, I don't know where the hell I'm well what what stinks though about what we're saying this is we have somehow gravitated towards the biggest spreads on the board or some of the biggest ones here this week and have gone in both directions, but still none of the ones that are lined shorter. We're attracted to it anyway. Like, just think about some of these that we've talked about, and let's start with Thursday. Okay, New Orleans at Arizona, God who knows no flipid idea at Lant at Cincinnati. I mean that's kind of tough, even though I like the Bengals generally better, but still, um yeah, I'm not I hate to interrupt, Kelly. I said I was gonna open two and a half on the Jags. I'm gonna have to open it three because I see now three with juice on the favorite. So I got them open three because they'll probably lay me the three. I'm sorry, no, no, you're talking about the Jags, Giants, Gas Giants. So the Jaguars, the two and four Jaguars are favored by three over there like the Giants a little bit there my name next to the Giants. Yeah, if you're giving me the full three, now three plus can probably get three even money right now. I have been hesitant to like back the Giants at any point this year, but if you're giving me three year against the Jaguars. What have the Jaguars done to inspire a three point favorite? And I've given them half a point for a home field advantage. Chris Follika live texting us. By the way, um, he says he's not watching any NBA this year. Yeah, okay, this is our pro tip of the hour. Let's get that. We want to make sure we get this. We're debating what to day, but we'll we'll go with yours, Chrissy, because we did get a text also from and I want to shout out this is from Isaac Meyer who also texted this. He goes yesterday. Arizona was a road favorite after being a home dog last week. Talking about what you were talking about, and that's our pro tip of the of the hour here, which is Chiefs were home dog this past week, a road favorite this coming week. Be careful. That is a you know, we don't usually talk about trends, but that's one that you have subscribed to for all your years. You know who turned me onto that one, My uncle Jack. And if Jack turns you on the one, Jack follow a lot of worse guys, and my uncle Jack, Jack knows some stuff. That was our pro tip for the hour. We do what every hour on Visa across every show. That means at least twenty a day. I've done the math. They're all available for recent Pro subscribers only at Visa dot com, where you can sort them by sports and by show. The Lombardi line is next. Enjoy from Vista the sports that any network