Where does the presidential election stand today? The New York Times recently out with some battleground surveys, which sure looks like good news for Donald Trump. They have him up pretty substantially in some of these Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, a little bit of a tighter race in the Rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But what is super interesting is it has Donald Trump up over twenty percent with the black vote, that would be the most for any Republican since nineteen sixty four. They also have him tied with eighteen to twenty nine year olds in Hispanics. These are groups that Biden got more than sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty. So are those numbers real? Is that possible? We're gonna ask John McLaughlin with McLoughlin and Associates. He has been advising Donald Trump and his campaign since at least twenty fifteen.

Where does the presidential election stand today? The New York Times recently out with some battleground surveys, which sure looks like good news for Donald Trump. They have him up pretty substantially in some of these Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, a little bit of a tighter race in the Rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But what is super interesting is it has Donald Trump up over twenty percent with the black vote, that would be the most for any Republican since nineteen sixty four. They also have him tied with eighteen to twenty nine year olds in Hispanics. These are groups that Biden got more than sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty. So are those numbers real? Is that possible? We're gonna ask John McLaughlin with McLoughlin and Associates. He has been advising Donald Trump and his campaign since at least twenty fifteen.

He's a long time polster.

He's a long time polster.

He has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and polster for over thirty five years. He's also done some international work for people like Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo so he knows what he's talking about. He's looking at this stuff every single day, so we're going to get his take. Where does the election stand today? How have these indictments shaped the election? And are some of these numbers we're seeing, you know, from this New York Times battleground survey, are they real? All of that and more with John McLoughlin.

He has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and polster for over thirty five years. He's also done some international work for people like Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo so he knows what he's talking about. He's looking at this stuff every single day, so we're going to get his take. Where does the election stand today? How have these indictments shaped the election? And are some of these numbers we're seeing, you know, from this New York Times battleground survey, are they real? All of that and more with John McLoughlin.

Stay tuned. Well, John, I appreciate you making the time for the show.

Stay tuned. Well, John, I appreciate you making the time for the show.

I've reached out before to you to kind of get your pulse on where things stand in the country. So I'm looking forward to bringing that conversation to my audience. So I appreciate you making the time.

I've reached out before to you to kind of get your pulse on where things stand in the country. So I'm looking forward to bringing that conversation to my audience. So I appreciate you making the time.

That's a pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity.

That's a pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

I guess we'll start off kind of you know, big picture, you know from your estimation, you know you're looking at polls probably all day long.

I guess we'll start off kind of you know, big picture, you know from your estimation, you know you're looking at polls probably all day long.

Where where does the election stand today?

Where where does the election stand today?

Well, since I worked for President Trump, then advised him since twelve. First time was twenty eleven when he was taking a running, then then twenty fifteen when he began running, and through the twenty sixteen campaign, in the twenty twenty campaign, and now through this all through last year's priory. Now we've never seen the kind of poll numbers that Donald Trump's getting right now. So in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty, it was always an electoral vote play that I'm sure we would lose the national popular vote, but it will be closed. But we could win in the battleground states and get an electoral majority. And that's what we did in twenty sixteen by seventy eight thousand votes. We won Pennsylvania forty four thousand votes. We won Wisconsin twenty two thousand votes, in Michigan ten thousand votes. So we were able to get an electoral majority. And then and it was a historic winning that you know, here was this outsider beat the Republican establishment and then beat the Washington you see, established brand and that was a new historic point. But the establisher never forgave us. And in twenty twenty we lost five forty four thousand voats, literally eleven thousand in Georgia, Arizona, and twenty thousand in was Townsend at our record one hundred and sixty million voats. So that was tough. But now, but we were never head in the popular vote. Lost the popular vote by four points according to the you know, according to the botalities. But now ever since Fiden surrendered Afghanistic in August September twenty one, Trumston leading of the national popular vote. And those aren't my polls necessarily. In my poll last month I had Trump about forty nine to five and beating you know, I had to have Rady switch that would be an electoral landslight for US. We weren't decisively, and but the media polls a lot, these media polls had skewed. I mean, I mean, there's a a there's a Yahoo pull out today of one thousand, seven hundred and ninety four adults that has US tied at forty three forty three. But they've got like thirteen questions in there about uh, the story Daniel's trial, and are extremely biased where we don't have a shot. But it's like the way they wrote the questions they was take Trump Yahoo News and then uh. And then they have only twenty nine percent voters who voted in twenty twenty vote for Trump. And you know, usually my polls I have with like over forty on because we do like we pull likely voters, we don't pull adults, we don't bult register all poll people that tell us they're actually going to vote. That's how try to be accurate. And we call off a voter database on you know, we know who we're calling, we know who we were in biding to take out national online service, and uh, you know, I mean we we you know in the poll that we have that that I just quoted you where Trump's had forty nine to forty five, there was that that's a plus four demo twenty twenty vote for Biden. So there's actually four or five percent that have flipped from voting for Biden that are voting for Trump now, and there's another four or five percent that's undecided. So we're in really good shape. And it's said because it's the country's in bad shape. I mean, sixty six percent of all voters say countries on the wrong track. They say the economy is getting worse out better sixty one to thirty four. You've got negatively impacted by inflation is eighty six percent of le voters. Forty eight percent say to the point that there can't afford basic necessities. And so we're seeing we're seeing that that rejection of Joe Biden, where he has a fifty six percent disapproval on air rating. Again, this poll was modeled after form turning.

Well, since I worked for President Trump, then advised him since twelve. First time was twenty eleven when he was taking a running, then then twenty fifteen when he began running, and through the twenty sixteen campaign, in the twenty twenty campaign, and now through this all through last year's priory. Now we've never seen the kind of poll numbers that Donald Trump's getting right now. So in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty, it was always an electoral vote play that I'm sure we would lose the national popular vote, but it will be closed. But we could win in the battleground states and get an electoral majority. And that's what we did in twenty sixteen by seventy eight thousand votes. We won Pennsylvania forty four thousand votes. We won Wisconsin twenty two thousand votes, in Michigan ten thousand votes. So we were able to get an electoral majority. And then and it was a historic winning that you know, here was this outsider beat the Republican establishment and then beat the Washington you see, established brand and that was a new historic point. But the establisher never forgave us. And in twenty twenty we lost five forty four thousand voats, literally eleven thousand in Georgia, Arizona, and twenty thousand in was Townsend at our record one hundred and sixty million voats. So that was tough. But now, but we were never head in the popular vote. Lost the popular vote by four points according to the you know, according to the botalities. But now ever since Fiden surrendered Afghanistic in August September twenty one, Trumston leading of the national popular vote. And those aren't my polls necessarily. In my poll last month I had Trump about forty nine to five and beating you know, I had to have Rady switch that would be an electoral landslight for US. We weren't decisively, and but the media polls a lot, these media polls had skewed. I mean, I mean, there's a a there's a Yahoo pull out today of one thousand, seven hundred and ninety four adults that has US tied at forty three forty three. But they've got like thirteen questions in there about uh, the story Daniel's trial, and are extremely biased where we don't have a shot. But it's like the way they wrote the questions they was take Trump Yahoo News and then uh. And then they have only twenty nine percent voters who voted in twenty twenty vote for Trump. And you know, usually my polls I have with like over forty on because we do like we pull likely voters, we don't pull adults, we don't bult register all poll people that tell us they're actually going to vote. That's how try to be accurate. And we call off a voter database on you know, we know who we're calling, we know who we were in biding to take out national online service, and uh, you know, I mean we we you know in the poll that we have that that I just quoted you where Trump's had forty nine to forty five, there was that that's a plus four demo twenty twenty vote for Biden. So there's actually four or five percent that have flipped from voting for Biden that are voting for Trump now, and there's another four or five percent that's undecided. So we're in really good shape. And it's said because it's the country's in bad shape. I mean, sixty six percent of all voters say countries on the wrong track. They say the economy is getting worse out better sixty one to thirty four. You've got negatively impacted by inflation is eighty six percent of le voters. Forty eight percent say to the point that there can't afford basic necessities. And so we're seeing we're seeing that that rejection of Joe Biden, where he has a fifty six percent disapproval on air rating. Again, this poll was modeled after form turning.

You know, John, you'd mentioned the botch withdrawal from Afghanistan, and you know, we saw I think he was pulling at I want to say, a forty nine percent at the beginning of that, the beginning of August twenty twenty one, and then we've sort of seen it. His approval numbers, Joe Biden's just continue to draw. What was it about the withdrawal that had Americans say, you know what, Nope, can't support this guy.

You know, John, you'd mentioned the botch withdrawal from Afghanistan, and you know, we saw I think he was pulling at I want to say, a forty nine percent at the beginning of that, the beginning of August twenty twenty one, and then we've sort of seen it. His approval numbers, Joe Biden's just continue to draw. What was it about the withdrawal that had Americans say, you know what, Nope, can't support this guy.

We don't call it a withdrawal. We call it a surrender. And that's President Trump's phrase that he called it a surrender. And because that's what he did, I mean he basically that wasn't a withdrawal. That was that was like a paling. And they literally surrendered the whole country with hundreds, if not thousands of Americans and certainly tens of thousands of uses of friends that shouldn't have been lecked behind. And he did. He for whatever reasons, he surrendered, and he costs thirteen verve worings their lives. And the one thing an American president is not supposed to do is surrender and he did it, and it was a sign of weakness. And when you look at the character contrast between the you know, Donald Trump, who the first thing they say about him is he straw. And now the first thing they say about Joe Biden is he's weak. And so for an American president to be that weak and surrender a country like that, we've been on the run ever since. I mean, Iran has been you know, selling their oil and he doesn't force the oil embargo, and it funded Hamas and it funds has Bola and Hooti's and Iraan proxy terrorists to a point where you know, it was a green light to invade for Russia to invade Ukraine, and it was and it was without a doubt, it was a green light for Iran to use their proxy to attack Israel. And then you have Iran attacking Israel directly with missiles and and you know that's a country that's developing a nuclear weapon. So a lot of people are worried about, you know, it's about what's going on with Joe Biden, because this is something an American president should not, should not you know, let happen, And it wouldn't have happened under Donald Trump. In fact, after Putin invaded Iran. It was February twenty two. I had to I was in Hungary doing work for the Prime Minister's reelection, and I came back and had a meeting with President Trump and Suzy Wiles and Brian Jack and we were going through some poll numbers. So President Trump said this would have never happened if I was president, meaning the Russian invasion in Ukraine. I said, oh, why was that? And he said he said, well, when I was president, I got intelligence and he had you know, Putin had invaded Ukraine and taken Crimea while Obama was president, and we got intelligence. They were masking and they were going to go out to Ukraine again. So I called him up and I said, if you go out to Ukraine, I'm got a Bob Muscat. They said, I never had a problem with you. Four years. Trump's told that story rus so I can repeat it. But but that was a sign of strength. And you know, when you think about Iran. Iran, they sent Solomoni to go take our big at embassy, you know, the way they took our tay Rain embassy back from Jimmy Carter was president and Solomoni was getting you know, she had malicious together and we're going to take our our embassy. And President Trump sent in like three thousand troops and he had Solamani killed, and it's like, you want to you want to challenge America, there's a price to pay right now. What happens is, you know, whether it's Twutin or whether it's a ram or whether it's a Maas, you know you can you can take Americans hostage, and Biden gives you billions of dollars eight that's what hamas.

We don't call it a withdrawal. We call it a surrender. And that's President Trump's phrase that he called it a surrender. And because that's what he did, I mean he basically that wasn't a withdrawal. That was that was like a paling. And they literally surrendered the whole country with hundreds, if not thousands of Americans and certainly tens of thousands of uses of friends that shouldn't have been lecked behind. And he did. He for whatever reasons, he surrendered, and he costs thirteen verve worings their lives. And the one thing an American president is not supposed to do is surrender and he did it, and it was a sign of weakness. And when you look at the character contrast between the you know, Donald Trump, who the first thing they say about him is he straw. And now the first thing they say about Joe Biden is he's weak. And so for an American president to be that weak and surrender a country like that, we've been on the run ever since. I mean, Iran has been you know, selling their oil and he doesn't force the oil embargo, and it funded Hamas and it funds has Bola and Hooti's and Iraan proxy terrorists to a point where you know, it was a green light to invade for Russia to invade Ukraine, and it was and it was without a doubt, it was a green light for Iran to use their proxy to attack Israel. And then you have Iran attacking Israel directly with missiles and and you know that's a country that's developing a nuclear weapon. So a lot of people are worried about, you know, it's about what's going on with Joe Biden, because this is something an American president should not, should not you know, let happen, And it wouldn't have happened under Donald Trump. In fact, after Putin invaded Iran. It was February twenty two. I had to I was in Hungary doing work for the Prime Minister's reelection, and I came back and had a meeting with President Trump and Suzy Wiles and Brian Jack and we were going through some poll numbers. So President Trump said this would have never happened if I was president, meaning the Russian invasion in Ukraine. I said, oh, why was that? And he said he said, well, when I was president, I got intelligence and he had you know, Putin had invaded Ukraine and taken Crimea while Obama was president, and we got intelligence. They were masking and they were going to go out to Ukraine again. So I called him up and I said, if you go out to Ukraine, I'm got a Bob Muscat. They said, I never had a problem with you. Four years. Trump's told that story rus so I can repeat it. But but that was a sign of strength. And you know, when you think about Iran. Iran, they sent Solomoni to go take our big at embassy, you know, the way they took our tay Rain embassy back from Jimmy Carter was president and Solomoni was getting you know, she had malicious together and we're going to take our our embassy. And President Trump sent in like three thousand troops and he had Solamani killed, and it's like, you want to you want to challenge America, there's a price to pay right now. What happens is, you know, whether it's Twutin or whether it's a ram or whether it's a Maas, you know you can you can take Americans hostage, and Biden gives you billions of dollars eight that's what hamas.

Yeah, I remember, I think it was. We were listening.

Yeah, I remember, I think it was. We were listening.

I was co hosting over the weekend, and during Trump's speech in New Jersey, he was talking about how his approach to Israel might not be popular, but you know, you've got to do the sometimes you have to do the unpopular things when you're a leader. And I think that kind of sums up the difference between, you know, the two where you know, Trump's willing to take a stand and do what he believes is right and and Biden is too weak to do that. You know, Democrats were hoping to take Trump out via law fair with all these indictments in the four cases, that Donald Trump is facing. How have these indictments, from what you're saying, how have they shaped this election?

I was co hosting over the weekend, and during Trump's speech in New Jersey, he was talking about how his approach to Israel might not be popular, but you know, you've got to do the sometimes you have to do the unpopular things when you're a leader. And I think that kind of sums up the difference between, you know, the two where you know, Trump's willing to take a stand and do what he believes is right and and Biden is too weak to do that. You know, Democrats were hoping to take Trump out via law fair with all these indictments in the four cases, that Donald Trump is facing. How have these indictments, from what you're saying, how have they shaped this election?

Well, it's been the central foundation of the Biden reelection strategy. And by the way, at one point, President Trump saying, do the popular things. By the way, what President Trump did, having America strong and having if you didn't respect us, at least you feared us. That's a popular position in this world. So but but going to the Biden indictments, I mean, Biden being behind in the national popular vote and losing the President Trump and now we're seeing all these battlegrounds says that he's losing. Last year was pretty clear their their campaign strategy was about indictments, and this year is about convictions. But last year, when you look at it, the evidence was okay. There. He was burrating Merrick Garland in twenty twenty two in April twenty two in the New York Times, saying he should be a potterist judge. She needs to get on him. Indict Trump. Next thing, you know, to Arland's hire Jack Smith, the DOJ. This fellow mclangelo, who was the third person in the Biden Department of Justice. All of a sudden, the guy takes a demotion after Cyrus Vance says is not enough to indict Trump or Bragg. Alvin Bragg says is not enough to indict Donald Trump. And so this guy Mcalangelo and the Biden working in the Biden Justice Bar, working for working for Merrick Garland, he leaves to become an assistant District attorney in Manhattan precisely to bring not to fight crime or promoters in jail or quit after illegal immagrom. No, he's there to Donald Trump and prosecute the case. They don't ready let Alvin Brad prosecute the case. This guy Colangel is prosecuting the case and so so. And then you got Fanny Willis, Fanny Wilson, her boyfriend. What are they doing going to the White House for meetings with the for eight hour meetings? Though Wade the prosecutor went to White House for two eight hour meetings, and Fanny Willis is going to see Kamala Harris. I mean these indictments, the four major indictments, who are all orchestrated by the Biden administration. And guess what the voters see it On our website, I'm a blocklan online dot com. We posted the results of our national multipole. And last month, sixty six percent of Wall voters said politics play to roll in these indictments. Fifty six percent said Joe Biden played a roll in these indictments. Fifty four to thirty six. They say there's a double standard that the Bidens go free while they prosecuted Trump. Fifty six to thirty five. All voters say, let the voters decide the election, not the courts. And fifty three percent to thirty four percent they say these indictments are just meant to put Donald Trump in jail, to stop him from being president. So the majority of Americans see this, and you know last year told President Trump, the only prime you've committed is your head in the pulse. And you know this is a political strategy by Buiden. He's so corrupt, you know, they make him out of this kind of old guy. He's not. He may be old technically, but he's he's really corrupt and he's failed. He's a desper president and he's afraid of losing to Donald Trump because his family is really corrupt. And you know, he's doing everything he can put Donald Trump in jail.

Well, it's been the central foundation of the Biden reelection strategy. And by the way, at one point, President Trump saying, do the popular things. By the way, what President Trump did, having America strong and having if you didn't respect us, at least you feared us. That's a popular position in this world. So but but going to the Biden indictments, I mean, Biden being behind in the national popular vote and losing the President Trump and now we're seeing all these battlegrounds says that he's losing. Last year was pretty clear their their campaign strategy was about indictments, and this year is about convictions. But last year, when you look at it, the evidence was okay. There. He was burrating Merrick Garland in twenty twenty two in April twenty two in the New York Times, saying he should be a potterist judge. She needs to get on him. Indict Trump. Next thing, you know, to Arland's hire Jack Smith, the DOJ. This fellow mclangelo, who was the third person in the Biden Department of Justice. All of a sudden, the guy takes a demotion after Cyrus Vance says is not enough to indict Trump or Bragg. Alvin Bragg says is not enough to indict Donald Trump. And so this guy Mcalangelo and the Biden working in the Biden Justice Bar, working for working for Merrick Garland, he leaves to become an assistant District attorney in Manhattan precisely to bring not to fight crime or promoters in jail or quit after illegal immagrom. No, he's there to Donald Trump and prosecute the case. They don't ready let Alvin Brad prosecute the case. This guy Colangel is prosecuting the case and so so. And then you got Fanny Willis, Fanny Wilson, her boyfriend. What are they doing going to the White House for meetings with the for eight hour meetings? Though Wade the prosecutor went to White House for two eight hour meetings, and Fanny Willis is going to see Kamala Harris. I mean these indictments, the four major indictments, who are all orchestrated by the Biden administration. And guess what the voters see it On our website, I'm a blocklan online dot com. We posted the results of our national multipole. And last month, sixty six percent of Wall voters said politics play to roll in these indictments. Fifty six percent said Joe Biden played a roll in these indictments. Fifty four to thirty six. They say there's a double standard that the Bidens go free while they prosecuted Trump. Fifty six to thirty five. All voters say, let the voters decide the election, not the courts. And fifty three percent to thirty four percent they say these indictments are just meant to put Donald Trump in jail, to stop him from being president. So the majority of Americans see this, and you know last year told President Trump, the only prime you've committed is your head in the pulse. And you know this is a political strategy by Buiden. He's so corrupt, you know, they make him out of this kind of old guy. He's not. He may be old technically, but he's he's really corrupt and he's failed. He's a desper president and he's afraid of losing to Donald Trump because his family is really corrupt. And you know, he's doing everything he can put Donald Trump in jail.

Yeah, I mean, the biggest way that Joe Biden told us is that Cornpop was the bad dude.

Yeah, I mean, the biggest way that Joe Biden told us is that Cornpop was the bad dude.

He's the bad dude, John.

He's the bad dude, John.

We've got more on the presidential election, but first, Since October seventh, the attacks on Israel have increased, with the Ron and its proxies launching an attack of hundreds of drones and missiles. Israelis are living with the harsh reality of terror every day. The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews is on the ground now addressing all urgent needs. That's why I'm partnering with IFCJ today. While praying for the best, IFCJ is preparing for the worst by packing the emergency bomb shelter kits that can be delivered immediately to those in desperate need. Your life saving donation today will help assemble and place these kids with enough food and life saving emergency supplies for twenty people huddled in a bomb shelter. The cost of putting together and distributing these kids is two hundred and ninety dollars each. Your gift now will save lives, and thanks to a matching challenge gift from a generous IFCJ supporter, your gift will double the impact to help provide twice the support. The number to call to make your gift is eight eight eight for eight eight IFCJ that's eight eight eight for eight eight IFCJ or four three two or goal of mine to support, IFCJ dot org to give. That's one word support, IFCJ dot org. You look at these New York Times battleground surveys. They've got Trump up pretty substantially in the sun Belt states Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, but within the margin of error in the rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Why is he doing better in the sun Belt states and not better in the roust belt states?

We've got more on the presidential election, but first, Since October seventh, the attacks on Israel have increased, with the Ron and its proxies launching an attack of hundreds of drones and missiles. Israelis are living with the harsh reality of terror every day. The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews is on the ground now addressing all urgent needs. That's why I'm partnering with IFCJ today. While praying for the best, IFCJ is preparing for the worst by packing the emergency bomb shelter kits that can be delivered immediately to those in desperate need. Your life saving donation today will help assemble and place these kids with enough food and life saving emergency supplies for twenty people huddled in a bomb shelter. The cost of putting together and distributing these kids is two hundred and ninety dollars each. Your gift now will save lives, and thanks to a matching challenge gift from a generous IFCJ supporter, your gift will double the impact to help provide twice the support. The number to call to make your gift is eight eight eight for eight eight IFCJ that's eight eight eight for eight eight IFCJ or four three two or goal of mine to support, IFCJ dot org to give. That's one word support, IFCJ dot org. You look at these New York Times battleground surveys. They've got Trump up pretty substantially in the sun Belt states Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, but within the margin of error in the rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Why is he doing better in the sun Belt states and not better in the roust belt states?

And what does he need to do to address that?

And what does he need to do to address that?

By the way, going back to the twenty sixteen campaign, that was our strategy. It was a horror land campaign to bring out working class to orders from the sun Belt in the rust belt states, and that's how we put Pennsylvania in play. We put Wisconsin and Michigan in flight. And it was mainly to get working class holders out who don't didn't vote in twenty twelve. They didn't like a ball on. They at some point they felt that Nick Rowney it was to fire them and was from country blook so Trump in twenty sixteen, we won those states. We call it precisely because the new voters came into the to the electorate, people that were like one paycheck away from disaster. And I've done some service before that where most of these working class, casual voters who vote in two thousand and eight twenty ten but then vote twelve were you know, they're making less than sixty thousand dollars a year in their household. And they were mainly women, and they were there was some more diversity than but that's who we were get this time. It ran the four or five percent that has switched from Biden twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, or the quarter of black quarter Hispanic average ages thirty five and they're really upset about inflation from all the issues and we're getting back and that Your question about the rust belt states is there. They were a little harder to win because they're more competitive. But nobody had won the states and years for the Republicans until Donald Trump did, until he was appealing to them on the issues of trade, taxes, fighting China, et cetera, redoing the unfair trade deals, and it was a working class appeal. And when you look at the New York Times polls, that happens ahead of five out of six the battleground states. By the way, Wisconsin where they had us. This the one state where they I think they had us behind in the New York Times, that one they even though Wisconsin was a forty nine twenty state. And when you look at Biden versus Trump, their internals on the on the poll has only forty two percent Trump voters and forty seven percent Biden voters. So there may be a little skew, and we think we're more in play in that state. So in fact, I tell you Wisconsin is at that even state. It's it's like and there's other polls out there was a bit Quinnipiac Paul had us losing by points there. And when you go into the internals, they have only twenty five percent Republicans, and you go back to the twenty twenty exit poles, we were thirty seven percent. So we're starting to see polls that are underpolling Republicans again. Like remember in twenty sixteen, it was a Hillary lock. There was no way that Trump was going to win. It was a lock for Hillary. Well, they kept underpolling Republicans tell Joe Biden, not Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton. Back then it was a Hillary lock, and we said, no, it's close and we could win, and we're going to win. And you know, Trump proved us right by seventy eight thousand votes out of one hundred and thirty nine million votes. Then in twenty twenty, they were saying it was going to be a Biden blue wave and we're like, no, it's going to be close again, and we will. You know, we can pull this out. But unfortunately, with drop boxes and sucker box you know, they basically ballot harvested during COVID and we lost three states by forty four thousand, but it was all in those rust Belt and certain Sun Belts states. The Sun Belt states have now gone against them because there's a the economy's bed flationis high, plus the borders out of control. The borders like the top issue that we're seeing that pops in the polls, and if you live in Arizona, Nevada, even New Mexico could come and play. By the way, we've got the Trump campaign released surveys in Minnesota that we were tied forty to forty with the Kennedy and nine percent. In Virginia, we're only behind by three forty to thirty seven percent with Kennedy at eight. And there was a poll yesterday by my colleague Tony Fabrizio, who also polls for Donald Trump, did the Superpack and now he's in the campaign again and they had us down with Virginia by one point. So so that we're burning the mat on these electoral states and you know, we've got. The tough part is we still got we still got a good amount of time between now and November fifth, but early voting starts in mid September and a lot of states and then in October most states are voting. And you know, when you when you look at it, we've got you know, as of today, it's like a hrndred and seventy four days for election day. So but this is a this is a position we've never.

By the way, going back to the twenty sixteen campaign, that was our strategy. It was a horror land campaign to bring out working class to orders from the sun Belt in the rust belt states, and that's how we put Pennsylvania in play. We put Wisconsin and Michigan in flight. And it was mainly to get working class holders out who don't didn't vote in twenty twelve. They didn't like a ball on. They at some point they felt that Nick Rowney it was to fire them and was from country blook so Trump in twenty sixteen, we won those states. We call it precisely because the new voters came into the to the electorate, people that were like one paycheck away from disaster. And I've done some service before that where most of these working class, casual voters who vote in two thousand and eight twenty ten but then vote twelve were you know, they're making less than sixty thousand dollars a year in their household. And they were mainly women, and they were there was some more diversity than but that's who we were get this time. It ran the four or five percent that has switched from Biden twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, or the quarter of black quarter Hispanic average ages thirty five and they're really upset about inflation from all the issues and we're getting back and that Your question about the rust belt states is there. They were a little harder to win because they're more competitive. But nobody had won the states and years for the Republicans until Donald Trump did, until he was appealing to them on the issues of trade, taxes, fighting China, et cetera, redoing the unfair trade deals, and it was a working class appeal. And when you look at the New York Times polls, that happens ahead of five out of six the battleground states. By the way, Wisconsin where they had us. This the one state where they I think they had us behind in the New York Times, that one they even though Wisconsin was a forty nine twenty state. And when you look at Biden versus Trump, their internals on the on the poll has only forty two percent Trump voters and forty seven percent Biden voters. So there may be a little skew, and we think we're more in play in that state. So in fact, I tell you Wisconsin is at that even state. It's it's like and there's other polls out there was a bit Quinnipiac Paul had us losing by points there. And when you go into the internals, they have only twenty five percent Republicans, and you go back to the twenty twenty exit poles, we were thirty seven percent. So we're starting to see polls that are underpolling Republicans again. Like remember in twenty sixteen, it was a Hillary lock. There was no way that Trump was going to win. It was a lock for Hillary. Well, they kept underpolling Republicans tell Joe Biden, not Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton. Back then it was a Hillary lock, and we said, no, it's close and we could win, and we're going to win. And you know, Trump proved us right by seventy eight thousand votes out of one hundred and thirty nine million votes. Then in twenty twenty, they were saying it was going to be a Biden blue wave and we're like, no, it's going to be close again, and we will. You know, we can pull this out. But unfortunately, with drop boxes and sucker box you know, they basically ballot harvested during COVID and we lost three states by forty four thousand, but it was all in those rust Belt and certain Sun Belts states. The Sun Belt states have now gone against them because there's a the economy's bed flationis high, plus the borders out of control. The borders like the top issue that we're seeing that pops in the polls, and if you live in Arizona, Nevada, even New Mexico could come and play. By the way, we've got the Trump campaign released surveys in Minnesota that we were tied forty to forty with the Kennedy and nine percent. In Virginia, we're only behind by three forty to thirty seven percent with Kennedy at eight. And there was a poll yesterday by my colleague Tony Fabrizio, who also polls for Donald Trump, did the Superpack and now he's in the campaign again and they had us down with Virginia by one point. So so that we're burning the mat on these electoral states and you know, we've got. The tough part is we still got we still got a good amount of time between now and November fifth, but early voting starts in mid September and a lot of states and then in October most states are voting. And you know, when you when you look at it, we've got you know, as of today, it's like a hrndred and seventy four days for election day. So but this is a this is a position we've never.

Been in for to be no, it's you know, in these polls also have I guess what I'm trying to figure out too, is I mean, some of these swings they have with some of these voter groups are substantial, and so I'm trying to figure out are is that real? You know, is this just a Carter era type election where things are so bad because these polls have Trump with over twenty percent of the black vote, which would be the highest for any Republican since nineteen sixty four. So I mean, that's historic, right, And then they have him basically tied with eighteen to twenty nine year olds and with hispan X groups that Biden got more than sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty.

Been in for to be no, it's you know, in these polls also have I guess what I'm trying to figure out too, is I mean, some of these swings they have with some of these voter groups are substantial, and so I'm trying to figure out are is that real? You know, is this just a Carter era type election where things are so bad because these polls have Trump with over twenty percent of the black vote, which would be the highest for any Republican since nineteen sixty four. So I mean, that's historic, right, And then they have him basically tied with eighteen to twenty nine year olds and with hispan X groups that Biden got more than sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty.

So I mean, is that what you're saying.

So I mean, is that what you're saying.

Are those numbers real or are these just people protesting now and then they're going to come home for Democrats when it gets closer or sort of what are your assessment of those groups and where they stand today in this election?

Are those numbers real or are these just people protesting now and then they're going to come home for Democrats when it gets closer or sort of what are your assessment of those groups and where they stand today in this election?

We're seeing it in that like with African Americans out the National Pollar referred to that we put up in April, we got twenty six percent of the Black boat. We're winning as bas eight. But again, these are likely voters and the media polls that you're seeing because we got eight percent of the black voat in twenty sixteen, we got twelve percent of the Black voat in twenty twelve. What you're seeing is that when it goes up to over twenty percent of a lot of these media polls for the black vote. It matches Joe Biden's disapproval and a lot of it. We're getting strong work for African American men who are middle class, but also women who care about their schools, and they also fit with the safety momps. We're getting, you know, women that are concerned about illegal immigration and crime and Federol and gangs over to Trump. And it's closed the gender gap that we lost with and significant close. So my last national poll are doubt for women and significantly more ahead among among men. But the h but to your point, it's the African American it's real now, but it's based on the dissatisfaction of buying correlates through this job disapproval and and it ties out with the with the you know, the the Biden failure on inflation, the Biden failure on crime, the Biden failure on border drugs, and and then Hispanic voters. If you came here legally or if you're a Porto riader Porto regions are American citizens, and unfortunately the treats like second class citizens by a lot of people. But they have to deal with the abuse and what's going on in the communities where you now have all these You know, you have what fourteen to fifteen million legal immigrants in the country right now, and they're not just Hispanics. But if you came here legally, if your first generation or second generation, when your parents came here illgally, and you had to wait ten ten years of more to do it right, and you wanted to be an American citizen, and you're not here channing death to Israel, death to America. You're here because you wanted to be an American and because you did it right. And now people are just walking across the border that are not our friends, and they are you know, and some of them are seriously tied with gangs, illegal immegration. Crime is out of control, and they're upset. They're really upset by this, and they're taking it out on the bike. Whether it's a realignment, like I'm an older polster where I used to work for Finkelstein where he was one of Reagan polsters, and we saw a realignment go from eighty to the eighty four election, where eighty four you had a realignment, but in eighty you had a rejection to Jimmy Carter and it was, you know, Reagan. In the polls back then, Reagan for everyone fairly had one negative. It's kind of like Trump. He was polarized. He was too right way, and he was too old. He was going to blow up the world. And then he had a debate with Jimmy Carter and he said, there you go again, mister president. Are you better off four years from now from what then you were four years ago? And he wanted a Lanslap. But that wasn't a realignment. That was a rejection of Jimmy Carter. He turned it into a realign. I think you're seeing the same thing now with Trump, where you possibly could have a realignment based on working class voters and expanding into college educative voters who are concerned about the standard of living in the United States, concerned about the security of the United States, and they want to go back to be some prosperity. And they made out like Trump's tweets. They may not like his rally speeches, so you know what, they're like policies, and they want to go back to a time where the real wages are going up prices. You know, they can handle it at the food store at datasen they don't have to worry about the you know, if they've got kids or family in the military, they don't have to wear them going out to someplace where they're going to get shot at, you know, and they won't have it. Comander achievement doesn't back them up.

We're seeing it in that like with African Americans out the National Pollar referred to that we put up in April, we got twenty six percent of the Black boat. We're winning as bas eight. But again, these are likely voters and the media polls that you're seeing because we got eight percent of the black voat in twenty sixteen, we got twelve percent of the Black voat in twenty twelve. What you're seeing is that when it goes up to over twenty percent of a lot of these media polls for the black vote. It matches Joe Biden's disapproval and a lot of it. We're getting strong work for African American men who are middle class, but also women who care about their schools, and they also fit with the safety momps. We're getting, you know, women that are concerned about illegal immigration and crime and Federol and gangs over to Trump. And it's closed the gender gap that we lost with and significant close. So my last national poll are doubt for women and significantly more ahead among among men. But the h but to your point, it's the African American it's real now, but it's based on the dissatisfaction of buying correlates through this job disapproval and and it ties out with the with the you know, the the Biden failure on inflation, the Biden failure on crime, the Biden failure on border drugs, and and then Hispanic voters. If you came here legally or if you're a Porto riader Porto regions are American citizens, and unfortunately the treats like second class citizens by a lot of people. But they have to deal with the abuse and what's going on in the communities where you now have all these You know, you have what fourteen to fifteen million legal immigrants in the country right now, and they're not just Hispanics. But if you came here legally, if your first generation or second generation, when your parents came here illgally, and you had to wait ten ten years of more to do it right, and you wanted to be an American citizen, and you're not here channing death to Israel, death to America. You're here because you wanted to be an American and because you did it right. And now people are just walking across the border that are not our friends, and they are you know, and some of them are seriously tied with gangs, illegal immegration. Crime is out of control, and they're upset. They're really upset by this, and they're taking it out on the bike. Whether it's a realignment, like I'm an older polster where I used to work for Finkelstein where he was one of Reagan polsters, and we saw a realignment go from eighty to the eighty four election, where eighty four you had a realignment, but in eighty you had a rejection to Jimmy Carter and it was, you know, Reagan. In the polls back then, Reagan for everyone fairly had one negative. It's kind of like Trump. He was polarized. He was too right way, and he was too old. He was going to blow up the world. And then he had a debate with Jimmy Carter and he said, there you go again, mister president. Are you better off four years from now from what then you were four years ago? And he wanted a Lanslap. But that wasn't a realignment. That was a rejection of Jimmy Carter. He turned it into a realign. I think you're seeing the same thing now with Trump, where you possibly could have a realignment based on working class voters and expanding into college educative voters who are concerned about the standard of living in the United States, concerned about the security of the United States, and they want to go back to be some prosperity. And they made out like Trump's tweets. They may not like his rally speeches, so you know what, they're like policies, and they want to go back to a time where the real wages are going up prices. You know, they can handle it at the food store at datasen they don't have to worry about the you know, if they've got kids or family in the military, they don't have to wear them going out to someplace where they're going to get shot at, you know, and they won't have it. Comander achievement doesn't back them up.

So you know, Democrat Democrats are going to try to.

So you know, Democrat Democrats are going to try to.

Make the selection about you know, we've heard it from Joe Biden, your threats to democracy, you know, abortion, to try to wed over women. Will those distraction tactics work? Will will that be effective?

Make the selection about you know, we've heard it from Joe Biden, your threats to democracy, you know, abortion, to try to wed over women. Will those distraction tactics work? Will will that be effective?

You know, it's it's it's what's interesting about the abortion argument is they're they're they're attacking us for and it's trying to say it's a total ban. No, it's up to each state. And that's what Donald Trump was consistent. He said he's pro life for Reagan, with the exceptions he was he did appoint federal judges who, you know, you can see what the liberal courts that don't now transgender issues and stuffed where if you have some sane juris, parents are still in control of their children and uh, not the state, not the government. But with abortion, it's up to the states to decide, and most states haven't changed the laws. I mean, some states have gotten more you know where they've got more pro life, uh, but uh, you know that's according to that state, and and the voters of that state are comfortable with other states they've had referendums where you know, they've been more more uh uh more liberal than the legislature. But that's that's where most people are right now. They would like their states to decide and not not have a federal national policy. And Joe Biden is the extremist in this when he I mean, they they literally want to have abortion up to the ninth month. I mean, you know this, you wonder about them where they you know, when a could be born and then they don't give it basic care. Uh. You know, it's just it's just you know, I mean, it's just appalling that they that they that's what they're campaigning. I mean when when when Joe Biden talks about freedom, but you know, it's not really free. If a baby's boy and all of a sudden, you want to you want.

You know, it's it's it's what's interesting about the abortion argument is they're they're they're attacking us for and it's trying to say it's a total ban. No, it's up to each state. And that's what Donald Trump was consistent. He said he's pro life for Reagan, with the exceptions he was he did appoint federal judges who, you know, you can see what the liberal courts that don't now transgender issues and stuffed where if you have some sane juris, parents are still in control of their children and uh, not the state, not the government. But with abortion, it's up to the states to decide, and most states haven't changed the laws. I mean, some states have gotten more you know where they've got more pro life, uh, but uh, you know that's according to that state, and and the voters of that state are comfortable with other states they've had referendums where you know, they've been more more uh uh more liberal than the legislature. But that's that's where most people are right now. They would like their states to decide and not not have a federal national policy. And Joe Biden is the extremist in this when he I mean, they they literally want to have abortion up to the ninth month. I mean, you know this, you wonder about them where they you know, when a could be born and then they don't give it basic care. Uh. You know, it's just it's just you know, I mean, it's just appalling that they that they that's what they're campaigning. I mean when when when Joe Biden talks about freedom, but you know, it's not really free. If a baby's boy and all of a sudden, you want to you want.

To kill that bid quick break.

To kill that bid quick break.

More on the presidential election on the other side, is it fair to say that Kennedy. I mean, it sounds like from the conversation we've had so far, Kennedy's pooling more from Biden than he is from Trump.

More on the presidential election on the other side, is it fair to say that Kennedy. I mean, it sounds like from the conversation we've had so far, Kennedy's pooling more from Biden than he is from Trump.

Yes, and because after the poll that I had where Trump was up four, we had in the same poll we had Trump at thirty eight, uh, Biden at thirty six, and then Kennedy would impress for the leaners, and then we had Kennedy at tent and it looked like Biden picked up a couple of points from Kennedy, probably on the abortion issue. But again that was April. After that we had a poll out from CNN about normal lamb, normal lamb, you know, getting phone calls for President Trump was wrong with the c and M Paul. This one had Trump up six and if Kennedy was in it, we were up nine. And uh, there was one out for Harvard Harris by Mark Penn who was Hillary Clinton's bolster. At Trump up four over Biden in the two way race, but with Kennedy in it, we went up seven. So so these flight polling. And by the way, Joe Biden today he said he wants to debate Trump make my day even though he doesn't want Trump that way.

Yes, and because after the poll that I had where Trump was up four, we had in the same poll we had Trump at thirty eight, uh, Biden at thirty six, and then Kennedy would impress for the leaners, and then we had Kennedy at tent and it looked like Biden picked up a couple of points from Kennedy, probably on the abortion issue. But again that was April. After that we had a poll out from CNN about normal lamb, normal lamb, you know, getting phone calls for President Trump was wrong with the c and M Paul. This one had Trump up six and if Kennedy was in it, we were up nine. And uh, there was one out for Harvard Harris by Mark Penn who was Hillary Clinton's bolster. At Trump up four over Biden in the two way race, but with Kennedy in it, we went up seven. So so these flight polling. And by the way, Joe Biden today he said he wants to debate Trump make my day even though he doesn't want Trump that way.

I saw. I wonder how many cuts it took to get that right right.

I saw. I wonder how many cuts it took to get that right right.

The other well, it's all they're going to have when you get into the details. They want to be able to cut our mic. So often they don't want to have an audience, so they don't want any witnesses. But but what's relevant about that is they don't want Kennedy that tells you everything you need to know. And you know, I mean you see the polls in New York State and New Jersey recently where in April you had an Emerson Pole where Trump in New Jersey before his wild Wood you know, uh, his wild would rally of one hundred thousand people driving down to the Garden State. It was bigger than a bon jovi or who Springsteam concert had one hundred thousand people a wild Wood, New Jersey to go see Donald Trump speak for an hour and a half. And and before that, the Emerson pole had us trailing by five points forty four thirty nine and he getting rusted eight points. And then in New York in April, you had a Siena Pole, that Santa College Pole that at Trump trailing even though we lost the state sixty one thirty eight, we were we were trailing forty seven thirty seven so we're within tent and they didn't ask Kennedy in a three way ballot. So something's going on in New York, New Jersey where people probably get most of the news covered about the about the trial, the phony trial, and the Biden trials. And also, you know, crime is out of control of New York. It's just it's I mean, Alvin Bragg is unbelievable. They let people go that is slashing and end up killing cops, and they let cop killers go, and they're busy wasting all their time and money him and with his James Chasing ran Donald Trump. But New York, you know, a mess. It's just unbelievable.

The other well, it's all they're going to have when you get into the details. They want to be able to cut our mic. So often they don't want to have an audience, so they don't want any witnesses. But but what's relevant about that is they don't want Kennedy that tells you everything you need to know. And you know, I mean you see the polls in New York State and New Jersey recently where in April you had an Emerson Pole where Trump in New Jersey before his wild Wood you know, uh, his wild would rally of one hundred thousand people driving down to the Garden State. It was bigger than a bon jovi or who Springsteam concert had one hundred thousand people a wild Wood, New Jersey to go see Donald Trump speak for an hour and a half. And and before that, the Emerson pole had us trailing by five points forty four thirty nine and he getting rusted eight points. And then in New York in April, you had a Siena Pole, that Santa College Pole that at Trump trailing even though we lost the state sixty one thirty eight, we were we were trailing forty seven thirty seven so we're within tent and they didn't ask Kennedy in a three way ballot. So something's going on in New York, New Jersey where people probably get most of the news covered about the about the trial, the phony trial, and the Biden trials. And also, you know, crime is out of control of New York. It's just it's I mean, Alvin Bragg is unbelievable. They let people go that is slashing and end up killing cops, and they let cop killers go, and they're busy wasting all their time and money him and with his James Chasing ran Donald Trump. But New York, you know, a mess. It's just unbelievable.

Before we go, what does Donald Trump's path to two seventy look like? Where does that run through?

Before we go, what does Donald Trump's path to two seventy look like? Where does that run through?

Well, runs through the states. You mentioned that there's seven swing states that that everybody he agrees upon that we've got to win North Carolina again and then we have to have the five. You correctly pointed out that there's Arizona, there's Georgia. By the way, Georgia since they straightened, since they got rid of the ballot harvesting with the drop boxes, and they're now require the late speaker Ralston was one of my clients in twenty one. We required a voter ID for absentees in for in person voting, and uh so they've secured that. We're heading the polls in Georgia, we're hitting the polls in Arizona, and a state that wasn't in play, Nevada, we're now headed and uh so that's really good. And then the three then the three rest belt states that everybody's focused on that Biden's boring tens of millions of dollars, and to try to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Biden doesn't win, I have sort of analysis that if Biden doesn't win one of those three Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he can't win. So yeah, I needs to win all three. If he loses one of them, he's dull. So you know, we might be expanding the map. It looks like to Minnesota, Virginia, maybe New Jersey, maybe New York. We have the rally in the Bronx and uh you know it's uh, it's right now. It's it's good for us because Biden's failing and you know years ago. No, it's actually February twenty twenty one after he left office, and President Trump and I went through some pollingd numbers. They said, yeah, two Thursday of publicans want you to run again. And this was during impeachment and he and he says, he said to me, you know, really, why would they want that? I said, they know Biden's going to fail. When Biden fails, would be like Jimmy Carter, and there'll be buyers from more so than they want you to be back back in the president. They work with policies, do you know Biden policies, And you know that's what's happened, except Biden has failed far worse than Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carr at least was honest too, he wasn't corrupt. But the uh, you're seeing a buyer's remorse where people like, we shouldn't a voter for this Joe Biden. We're going to vote. We're going to vote for Donald.

Well, runs through the states. You mentioned that there's seven swing states that that everybody he agrees upon that we've got to win North Carolina again and then we have to have the five. You correctly pointed out that there's Arizona, there's Georgia. By the way, Georgia since they straightened, since they got rid of the ballot harvesting with the drop boxes, and they're now require the late speaker Ralston was one of my clients in twenty one. We required a voter ID for absentees in for in person voting, and uh so they've secured that. We're heading the polls in Georgia, we're hitting the polls in Arizona, and a state that wasn't in play, Nevada, we're now headed and uh so that's really good. And then the three then the three rest belt states that everybody's focused on that Biden's boring tens of millions of dollars, and to try to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Biden doesn't win, I have sort of analysis that if Biden doesn't win one of those three Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he can't win. So yeah, I needs to win all three. If he loses one of them, he's dull. So you know, we might be expanding the map. It looks like to Minnesota, Virginia, maybe New Jersey, maybe New York. We have the rally in the Bronx and uh you know it's uh, it's right now. It's it's good for us because Biden's failing and you know years ago. No, it's actually February twenty twenty one after he left office, and President Trump and I went through some pollingd numbers. They said, yeah, two Thursday of publicans want you to run again. And this was during impeachment and he and he says, he said to me, you know, really, why would they want that? I said, they know Biden's going to fail. When Biden fails, would be like Jimmy Carter, and there'll be buyers from more so than they want you to be back back in the president. They work with policies, do you know Biden policies, And you know that's what's happened, except Biden has failed far worse than Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carr at least was honest too, he wasn't corrupt. But the uh, you're seeing a buyer's remorse where people like, we shouldn't a voter for this Joe Biden. We're going to vote. We're going to vote for Donald.

Troll and let's pray that they do. John McLoughlin, I really appreciate you making the time. This has been super interesting, So thank you well.

Troll and let's pray that they do. John McLoughlin, I really appreciate you making the time. This has been super interesting, So thank you well.

Lisa, thank you for your analysis, and thank thank you for the opportunity, and I will keep listening and watching well.

Lisa, thank you for your analysis, and thank thank you for the opportunity, and I will keep listening and watching well.

We'd love to have you back as we continue to get closer to the elections. So appreciate what you do and appreciate you making the time.

We'd love to have you back as we continue to get closer to the elections. So appreciate what you do and appreciate you making the time.

Thank you.

Thank you.

That was John McLoughlin, long time polster. Really appreciate him making the time. We're going to try to bring you more of these types of interviews just so that you know we're paying attention and we're getting the inside scoop heading into the election. Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you've can listen throughout the week. Don't think John Cassio and my producer for putting the show together.

That was John McLoughlin, long time polster. Really appreciate him making the time. We're going to try to bring you more of these types of interviews just so that you know we're paying attention and we're getting the inside scoop heading into the election. Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you've can listen throughout the week. Don't think John Cassio and my producer for putting the show together.

Until next time.

Until next time.