The shifting support of minor parties is likely to be make or break for November's general election.
The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls shows the coalition has a 70 percent chance of being re-elected.
The current parliamentary opposition's chances has slumped to 7.2 percent.
Former minister Peter Dunne says support for Labour and National will remain fairly consistent.
"Particularly, keep an eye on New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party - they seem to be where the movement's taking place, although New Zealand First's, I think, peaked a little bit. It's hard to say at this stage."
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