Stress Testing Property Forecasts  in 2024

With a rush of negative data since the year began, this week we interrogate those bullish forecasts and see if they can be taken seriously.

The big banks offered a consensus estimate that capital city house prices would rise by 5.7 percent in 2024. With a rush of negative data since the year began, this week we interrogate those bullish forecasts and see if they can be taken seriously.

In today's show, we cover:
Will gloomy consumers drag property prices lower?
NSW leads the investor rebound 
Why one in three immigrants head to Melbourne 
The outlook for rental yields 

Eliza Owen of the CoreLogic research group joins Wealth Editor James Kirby in this episode 

The big banks offered a consensus estimate that capital city house prices would rise by 5.7 percent in 2024. With a rush of negative data since the year began, this week we interrogate those bullish forecasts and see if they can be taken seriously.
In today's show, we cover:
<ul>
<li>Will gloomy consumers drag property prices lower?</li>
<li>NSW leads the investor rebound </li>
<li>Why one in three immigrants head to Melbourne </li>
<li>The outlook for rental yields </li>
</ul>
Eliza Owen of the CoreLogic research group joins Wealth Editor James Kirby in this episode

Unlock your wealth potential with The Money Puzzle.

Featuring two power-packed episodes each week packed with smart money-making strategies, from superannuation to investing in shares, plus in-depth analysis of property markets.

Get tips from leading experts and practical tools to help build lasting wealth.

Submit your questions at themoneypuzzle@theaustralian.com.au. 

Unlock your wealth potential with The Money Puzzle.
Featuring two power-packed episodes each week packed with smart money-making strategies, from superannuation to investing in shares, plus in-depth analysis of property markets.
Get tips from leading experts and practical tools to help build lasting wealth.
Submit your questions at <a href="mailto:themoneypuzzle@theaustralian.com.au">themoneypuzzle@theaustralian.com.au</a>.&nbsp;

The Australian’s Money Puzzle covers all important finance and property topics.

The Money Puzzle

Every week, The Australian's James Kirby delivers two power-packed episodes featuring in-depth analysis of property markets and smart money-making strategies.

Unlock your wealth potential with The Money Puzzle.

Featuring two power-packed episodes each week packed with smart money-making strategies, from superannuation to investing in shares, plus in-depth analysis of property markets.

Get tips from leading experts and practical tools to help build lasting wealth.

Submit your questions at themoneypuzzle@theaustralian.com.au.

Unlock your wealth potential with The Money Puzzle.
Featuring two power-packed episodes each week packed with smart money-making strategies, from superannuation to investing in shares, plus in-depth analysis of property markets.
Get tips from leading experts and practical tools to help build lasting wealth.
Submit your questions at themoneypuzzle@theaustralian.com.au.

Stress Testing Property Forecasts

Rental market shock: Why residential rental income is rising (again) despite flat forecasts

Property investors are suddenly grappling with a reshaped market where forecasts have been turned upside down

It was not supposed to happen this year: Vacancy rates were meant to rise in 2026 and income was expected to flatten…not at all. Property investors are suddenly grappling with a reshaped market where forecasts have been turned upside down.

Louis Christopher of SQM Research joins Associate Editor James Kirby in this episode.

In today’s episode, we cover:
As you were! The upset trend of the year for property investors 
The downgrades keep coming for house prices
CGT looks set to increase
Will a two-property negative gearing limit hurt?

It was not supposed to happen this year: Vacancy rates were meant to rise in 2026 and income was expected to flatten&hellip;not at all.&nbsp;Property investors are suddenly grappling with a reshaped market where forecasts have been turned upside down.
Louis Christopher of SQM Research joins Associate Editor James Kirby in this episode.
In today&rsquo;s episode, we cover:
<ul>
<li>As you were! The upset trend of the year for property investors&nbsp;</li>
<li>The downgrades keep coming for house prices</li>
<li>CGT looks set to increase</li>
<li>Will a two-property negative gearing limit hurt?</li>
</ul>

Why residential rental income is about to move higher (again) 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/clips/e6c0a4e1-ec88-4292-b94f-b42c009b37d5/transcript

Separately Managed Accounts: Advisers love them, but should you?

SMAs are booming inside the financial advice sector: But if they are so terrific, then why is regulator ASIC asking so many probing questions around fees and conflicts of interest?

SMAs are booming inside the financial advice sector: But if they are so terrific, then why is regulator ASIC asking so many probing questions around fees and conflicts of interest?

Nathan Fradley of Fradley Advice joins Associate Editor, James Kirby in this episode.


In today's show, we cover...
The good, bad and potentially ugly side of the SMA boom
Will SMSFs get a fair deal in the new Compo scheme of last resort
Reward points and super funds- a marriage made in the marketing department
Why are financial advice fees not coming down if AI cuts costs?

SMAs are booming inside the financial advice sector: But if they are so terrific, then why is regulator ASIC asking so many probing questions around fees and conflicts of interest? Nathan Fradley of Fradley Advice joins Associate Editor, James Kirby in this episode.
 In today's show, we cover...
<ul>
<li>The good, bad and potentially ugly side of the SMA boom</li>
<li>Will SMSFs get a fair deal in the new Compo scheme of last resort</li>
<li>Reward points and super funds- a marriage made in the marketing department</li>
<li>Why are financial advice fees not coming down if AI cuts costs?</li>
</ul>

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/clips/11f9fb9b-c65b-4b19-aae9-b4270058047b/transcript

Standby for a house price downturn

You can’t have a run of interest rate hikes and expect property to shoot out the lights. The chances are we are going to see a price slowdown in the major cities later this year…especially at the top end. But a string of factors point to serious resilience at the other end of the market.

You can’t have a run of interest rate hikes and expect property to shoot out the lights. The chances are we are going to see a price slowdown in the major cities later this year…especially at the top end. But a string of factors point to serious resilience at the other end of the market.

Independent housing analyst, Eliza Owen, joins Associate Editor, James Kirby in this episode 

In today’s show, we cover:
The key factors keeping demand strongest at the entry level
How the 5% home deposit scheme skewed house prices
A new CGT discount rate of 33% is now the most likely Budget change
The problem with ‘grandfathering’ 

You can&rsquo;t have a run of interest rate hikes and expect property to shoot out the lights. The chances are we are going to see a price slowdown in the major cities later this year&hellip;especially at the top end. But a string of factors point to serious resilience at the other end of the market.
Independent housing analyst, Eliza Owen, joins Associate Editor, James Kirby in this episode&nbsp;
In today&rsquo;s show, we cover:
<ul>
<li>The key factors keeping demand strongest at the entry level</li>
<li>How the 5% home deposit scheme skewed house prices</li>
<li>A new CGT discount rate of 33% is now the most likely Budget change</li>
<li>The problem with &lsquo;grandfathering&rsquo;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

Where investors will hunt in the looming property downturn

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/clips/2742e0af-d004-4807-a8a7-b425003b5404/transcript

Stress Testing Property Forecasts

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