Handicapping NFL Week 15: Bills-Broncos Saturday Night, Chiefs Road Favorites in New Orleans | The MMQB Gambling Show

Published Dec 18, 2020, 9:00 AM

Jimmy, Mitch and Gary break down the Week 15 lines, including the Bills entering a potential danger zone on Saturday night in Denver. Plus, the Chiefs giving points in the big showdown in New Orleans, the Browns and Colt McCoy's Giants in the flexed Sunday night game, and whether the Steelers, Titans, Ravens and Rams can cover double-digit spreads.

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Welcome everyone to the mm QB Gambling Podcast, Week fifteen in the NFL Saturday games starting up now. I am one of your co host Jimmy Trained, joined as always every week by Mitch Goldich and Gary Grambling as we uh cover the games, give you our best bets. I went for and well last week? Very nice. How did you guys do? Mitch? What was your record? Jimmy? Do you not know how I did? Are you? I don't know? I was not tracking it well. Um, as anyone who listened to this show last week remembers, I went a little crazy and decided to best bet seven games, which was a record, and I went one in six. Um, yeah it was. It was I just I have to say, this was not a bit. I was not like, oh, this will be a funny thing if I just picked seven games for no reason. I genuinely I loved the board last week. I loved all the games. I felt so confident and then it was one of those weeks where not only did I lose, it became apparent by like one twenty or one thirty in the afternoon, what a big mistake I had made that I was gonna have a tough day. Usually when you when you like a game a lot, you know, within like the first five minutes, whether it's gonna win or lose. A lot of the times, yeah, how do you do? Last week three and three, the only eventful thing was bending the over in that Seahawks Jets game because the Jets missed all those kicks. And then I left it on the TV for the second half. You I, I have the I have multiple devices going, so I haddled the games anyway, but the big screen had the Jets game on, and uh, I'm just waiting for them to score their garbage time touchdown and push it to the over didn't come. But you know, my kids will sometimes slip into the room for the late games and and sort of watching with me and my my eight year old just every five minutes was like why is this game on? Why is this game on? And it's like, well, your daddy has a has a problem when you bet me over in this game, and now now he needs Sam Donald to actually move the ball against a terrible He wasn't just trying to say like why are the Jets allowed to play? Like what? What? That could also you could interpret the question a lot of ways. It might have been rhetorical in nature, but but yeah, that one didn't come through, and that was the only one that really bothered me one way or another. It was funny you bet the over, you don't expect Russell Wilson to get pulled in the third quarter. I imagine that was the moment you knew things were. Geno Smith did his job. They got points with Gino Smith in there. Sam Donald didn't get points, though, and that's that's the way it goes. So I don't know. Maybe maybe they'll go back to Gino next year if they passed on Trevor Lawrence. But did anyone did anyone have I know we had the game at two points, but did anyone have a real bet on Brown's Ravens money night? I just had the over, so I was fine with and I know when I bet the over on my site it was still three. Didn't go to three and a half when I saw it, probably liken. So I just I enjoyed the ending as a spectator because that was unbelievable. There's listen, when those don't hurt you, that's as good as it gets from again. At that point, all right, let's uh, let's kick off week fifteen here and uh, see if Mitch could get back on track, and see if I can stay hot here. I have no best bets this week. I'm just I mean, it's a gas on every every game. I'll just kick it over to Gary. I I didn't love the board, but here we go. Um. First game, Buffalo coming off that big money that was a head to head Gary and I had he had the Steelers. I Buffalo last week as best bets, coming off that win against Pittsburgh minus six in Denver, Denver, coming off and winning Carolina, which hurt me in real life. Buffalo minus six, the total forty nine. Gary, Yeah, I I like the total in this one. Uh. You know, I think when you go out to Denver, it's always always an adventure. And Broncos they played good defenses here. I know they had not a great week in Carolina last week, but they've been pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball. Um, if you look at what they've done over the past three season. So we're going back to eighteen, Uh, when they are facing a team that's averaging twenty seven plus points. Uh, they have gone under an eleven of those twelve games, Eleven of twelve of those games. I guess that's a better way of phrasing it. Um. And when playing a team against who has a winning record, there fifteen and three going under in those games fifteen unders, three over. So um, I think this one is going over. I'm gonna be very Mike Frances here for a second and and run off totals from their post November first games at home the last two seasons we got to uh forty three points, forty three points, forty four points. Uh and then this year sixty one, that was that that Chargers game where they came back and Drew Lock won it on the on the butt catch, uh sixty one, then thirty three and thirty four. So I think this one stays relatively low scoring. You know, maybe you get weather out there this time of year in Denver. I haven't at the forecast yet, but regardless, I do think they defend well. Uh. You know, Josh Allen has been a little bit streaky, as he always is, So I think this one goes under. And as far as the sides go, I think it's a bit of a danger zone for the Bills here. I I'd back away from it bec is uh, you know, the Broncos are a bit of a dud offensively, but uh, this is uh, this is I think it's a tougher game than people expect for Buffalo. Yeah. So I love that we're starting with this one because, as you guys know, I have sworn off Broncos games, and I will say, for any Broncos fans out there, this is not a shot at your team, because it works both ways. There have been times I've picked them to win and they've lost, But there have also been times where I thought they were gonna lose and they have shown up and and one or at least covered and played well. So it's not that against the Broncos fans. I just I am off on this team. It's funny, I'm now imagining anyone who's watching this show or listening for the first time. I'm normally very confident. I'm just I'm totally shook by my one and six and we're starting with the Broncos. But anyway, my my gut tells me as much as I don't want to weigh, and I kind of like the Bills here. Um, you know, I just they're on such a role and you know, I think Gary, you're right that the Broncos maybe a tougher game for them than a lot of people think. But I also just think that, um, you know, the line sort of take into account that I thought Drew lock was much better last week than he's been four touchdown passes, um obviously, and um, you know so so I think that, you know, obviously, the Bills are are charging and playing really well. But you wonder what this line would look like if it was coming off the Broncos games of a couple of weeks ago. But um, you know, I'm not gonna best bet it because I'm done best betting Broncos games. But if you made me pick a side, I would lean Bills this way. Just the way they're playing. Their mojo is great. I definitely I underestimated them, and they look like they're charging up towards the two seed at least the three. They should clinch the division this weekend. So yeah, you know, I do, uh, I cautiously say that I like Buffalo. Here, Gary and I went head to head last week on Buffalo Pittsburgh. We're gonna be on the same side. I love the under in this game. Gary laid out some of the reasons here I think, uh, you know, Buffalo was playing out of their minds against Pittsburgh last week. I think in Denver now it's a little bit gonna be a little bit tougher to uh put up the points that they were able to put up last week. Broncos defense has played well totally. Here's forty nine. I mean that just seems high, especially for a Broncos offense that I don't think is um that good. I do think the Bill's defense is a little overrated, but not to the point where they should struggle in Denver. So I like under forty nine here A lot I should have mentioned too. This is Saturday game, first game of the week. This is Saturday for a thirty. The other Saturday game at eight fifteen Caroline at Green Bay Packers eight and a half point favorites, total fifty one and a half. Mitch, Yeah, so this one is a little tough, and and I saw the line started lower and then went up to eight and a half. Um, But I do uh, I do like green Bay here, um, I feel like Carolina. They were like a nice story earlier in the season in October, and they're winning games without Christian McCaffrey and people like Bridgewater and what he's doing. And then all of a sudden you look up and they've lost seven out of eight games, and it feels like Teddy just hasn't progressed through the season like I think early in the year it was like exciting watching him and he maybe, I mean, he did well, he won all his games that he played in relief last year for the Saints, UM, but it felt like he it feels like he just hasn't taken a step during the season like you might like to see. I think Caroline is still squarely in that conversation of teams that are gonna be looking for new quarterbacks, whether this coming off season or next. UM. But you know, even though they've lost seven of eight, they do have some good losses in the mix. Like looking at their schedule now, uh, three points in New Orleans, two points in Kansas City, they nearly beat the Vikings. But I like the Packers UM. And you know, even though you see an eight point spread eight and a half now at this point, I think sometimes you worry about like a backdoor cover, but in this situation, I think, you know, I like the Packers as one of those teams to keep the foot on the gas. I think it's you know, Saturday night in Lambeau and there's all this conversation now about Rogers in the m v P discussion, especially after mahomes through three picks, and I know sometimes it's like it's silly to worry about stuff like that, but this just seems like the kind of team in a situation where they're gonna want to put up points and put on a show on national TV and get a big lead and throw the ball. Uh, you know, even if they're ahead, and you know, I think they have back to back primetime games if I'm right, And this just feels like one of those situations where Aaron Rodgers in particular, and even you know, his teammates, who I think like him a lot, would be very happy to win a game big so um, you know. And it's not just him, it's a it's a good team overall. I've said for a few weeks now I think the Packers are the best team in the NFC, and now I think more people are saying that after the Saints lost to the Eagles last week. So even though it's up over a touchdown eight and a half, now I do like green Beata cover. Uh, stay away. The fact that the spread is so big, I'm not crazy about. Obviously, I'd probably lean Packers if I had to pick it. Uh. And look, it's stupid to rely on anecdotal stuff, but you remember Carolina went out there last year and in the snow with Kyle Allen. Uh, they went down to the wire with the Packers here a bit of a different Packers team and obviously a different Panthers team. Uh. Though I think that Panthers team is probably not as good as this current one. So um, i'd stay away that there. We've seen the Packers put a couple of duds out this year, especially in their own stadium. The Panthers are well coached. They you know, they said they're gonna play out the string. It's not gonna be a tryout for guys U down the stretch here. And yeah, it's it's a little too much volatility here for me. Yeah, it's a state away from me. I don't really have a I I do think, you know, at the beginning of the season, there was all this talk about Matt role, but the Panthers have completely gone in the tank, and I wonder now they haven't had Christian McCaffrey, so that's an issue. Not gonna have them again this week. You think the Packers here would get a cover, but eight and a half is high and uh, this just here on a Saturday night standalone, will be a major teaser game for me. Package with something on Sunday. But I'm not gonna lay eight and a half. Next game, the Bucks go into Atlanta as six point favorites. The total here is forty nine and a half. Gary. It can't get a good read on this one. It can never get a good real on the Falcons. Who knows where they're gonna be world beaters? Who knows when they're gonna uh, you know, lose my forty points here. Uh. I'm still wondering about the Bucks here. You know, I was wondering how they'd be coming out of the bye last year against or Ex last weekends the Vikings, the offense was out there for twenty minutes. I mean, it was really difficult to get a read on on what they're doing, uh going forward here. So this is a stay away from me. I'm never crazy about uh road teams within the division anyway. I'd probably lean Atlanta if I had to but uh yeah, too much, too much going on here to get a good read on this one. It feels like a personal attack on me. Now you had to bring up road teams within the division area. Um yeah, this is a stay away from me the fount Like you said, I mean, who knows what to make of the Atlanta Falcons. Uh on a week to week basis, on a quarter to quarter basis, you know, they've been competitive. They played the Saints close, and then they get the Chargers and it's like a comment hr and the site which team is actually gonna win that game? Um again that I needed them to pull out, by the way. But anyway, UM, you know, I think you've got to like the Bucks. Gary. You're right about the time of possession stuff. And also that game could have been closer if Dan Bailey haven't missed I think four kicks. I think it was three field goals at an extra point last week, ten points on the field and um and and you know the Bucks their wide receivers. I don't know that they've had twenty minutes all season with all of their wide receivers on the field. Um. And concerns about everybody and who's healthy and who's around and now Ronald Jones is on the COVID list this week. Um, so you know, I I think this spreads just a little bit too high. This game wouldn't surprise me at all if it's like not just a three point game, but like a two point game, like missed kicks and something ugly happens or a safety or something weird, and it's like, you know, a four point game one way or another at the end. Um, so you know, I can see a close game, I can see a bucks blot and I'm gonna leave this one alone. I don't have this feel on the side, but I liked the over in this game a lot. Forty nine and a half. I think the box offense is is is fine. I think the Brady stuff is overrated. They did what they had to do last week against the Vikings. They're indoors here, I don't have to worry about anything. Gronks starting to really roll. So I think Tampa puts up points and I don't think they're de fence is any good. I think the Falcons put up points here as well at home. I think you know the Falcons their seasons over. They'd love nothing more than to you know, do some damage to a division opponent. So I like the over. I think you'll see points in this one. Next game is a interesting one, the Dolphins at home giving a point to the Patriots. The total is forty one and a half. Mitch, Yeah, I love the Dolphins here. Um. I you know, again, I'm being cautious, uh, saying that I love picking against the Patriots. But this is a line that just really surprised me. I mean, I just think you look at these teams and and how they've trended the last few weeks. I think it's obvious that Miami is better right now. Um. And then you know, putting aside that I think they're better, isn't this like a thing that the Patriots often played poorly in Miami and that's like a trouble spot for them even the years that that the Patriots have been better than the Dolphins. Um. And you know, you look at the Belichick match up against Brian Flores and uh they did Miami pulled the upset last season. I think it was weeks seventeen last year, which ended up being really costly for playoff seating. Um. And you know, I just think I liked what I saw that from the Dolphins showing some fight against the Chiefs last week. I know they didn't win, um, because you know, good luck stopping the Chiefs for sixty minutes, but they still picked off my homes three times. That defense is really legit. And um, you know it's a low total here, forty one and a half, and I think that's because you've got to expect the Patriots offense to struggle. Um, we saw them in prime time last week and they scored three points. So you know, looking at this, it's it's it's fun. I think, uh, I think America it would be happy looking in a game like this and thinking that the uh, you know, the Patriots are gonna lose and be pretty much knocked out of the playoff contention. That feels like a fun thing, which means, of course, the Patriots will probably win and make everyone burying them look stupid because they'll take it into weeks seventeen. But no, I will stand strong, and I do like Miami here. Yeah to Mitch's point, five and two Miami against the spread against the Patriots at home over the last seven and also five and two against excuse me, straight up, five and two as well as I look at this. Uh, and when of them was last year's opener. I you guys probably remember that the four three nothing game of Josh Rosen got some some running that game. Uh. But yeah, you know I said this couple of weeks ago when they were only given a point to the Chargers, where you know, I'm not crazy about the matchup from like an X is an ode standpoint here, Dolphins don't stop the run. Well, the Patriots only run the ball. They have no passing game at this point. Uh, Patriots can go down there and win. Is it? Is? It? Is it? At game? No, Like this is a this is like a sixty five three five game for Miami to win. This is just a it's a disrespectful spread for a team that's pretty good here, and that's clearly better than their opponents. So I like Miami a lot in this one. Uh. And I you know, I've said this a couple of times during the year, and they've sort of shown life here and there. But if you're a veteran member of the Patriots and this time of year, you're you're ramping up for the playoffs in another Super Bowl run, I mean, are you? Are you going all out? Are you? Are you playing hard down the stretch here? Yet? I think because of who your coaches, I'm not going to allow it. We'll see, Jimmy. I I just if I'm like one of them Accordis or I'm like, uh, I don't know, Warrant guy or something like that. It's it's kind of like, you know what I've been putting up with COVID all year. There's been a miserable season, and half the guys opted out. I think we're just gonna, you know, enjoy ourselves down to stretch, go down to Miami, have some fun. I was the perks of going to Miami in a normal season do not exist right now. I think I think they will be having less fun than they might typically have on a trip to Miami. They will be in the hotel, uh, following social distance guideline, so you might think they have a fewer distractions. I don't know what Patriots road trips are like. They're probably very disciplined and UH take them as seriously as anyone else in the league, I would guess. But yeah, I mean my take here is, you know, you both like Miami. Gary breaks it down and for me, it's a stayway because I don't I can't put the nail in the Bill Belichick cofin yet, I'm not They're not gonna make the players, not gonna winning record. I got all that, but Bill Belichick going against a rookie quarterback would make me nervous if I had the rookie quarterback. And I do think now this is gonna sound absolutely insane to say they could be a little bit of a letdown for the Dolphins when they got the Patriots coming into their building. But after that lost to the Chiefs last week, the Chiefs of the new Patriots, so there could be a letdown this week with Miami. I could see it a little bit. So I don't trust the game. So that's why I have to stay away from me while you guys are both on Miami. Like I think a lot of people will be. The next game that we're gonna discuss is the game of the day for on on Sunday there on CBS, Chiefs minus three at the Saints total fifty one and a half. Garrett, Yeah, well, we'll see about Drew Brees. Right now, it's unclear whether whole play or not. Obviously, I think at this point. We saw last week that Taysom Hill is probably not going to bring a team back from a big deficit. The Eagles entire secondary got hurt and that's what kind of opened the door for the Saints in that game. But uh, you know, obviously you're at risk of following behind by by multiple possessions anytime you play Patrick Mahomes. I just want to bring up something about Patrick Mahomes last week because everyone's on this sort of like, oh my god, three interceptions out of the MVP race and on this stuff. One was one was deflected by a guy who was on the ground and then you know Van Ginkle like pops up in a split second and deflexive thing gets intercepted. Uh, And one was was just a you know, downfield throw that wasn't very good. And then he you know, the one he threw where he overshot Clyde Edwards a laire um on one of those off balance throws that he usually makes. Yeah, he missed a throw, but let's let's not go not to here. They they fell down ten nothing and then he scored twenty one points in like a ten minute span and the game was over. So, uh, there's nothing wrong with my Homes at this point. There's nothing wrong with the Chief's offense. It's it's what we thought it would be pretty much, uh, every game for the past two seasons here, so uh, you gotta like the Chiefs and this one. If Breeze plays, you know, maybe it turns to do a coin flip type of game, but I would lead in Kansas City here. Yeah. So okay, so you hit a few points that I was gonna make Gary. First off, everything you said about the Chiefs offenses, right, they are totally fine. And I think we've talked on this podcast about the fact that they have not always kept the foot on the gas pedal of the whole game. They'll get up big, they'll go through these spurts and then uh not necessarily take it easy, but they don't sort of have that out for blood, uh sort of thought process mindset that they had a couple of seasons ago when my Homes through for fifty touchdowns in five thousand yards, and I was gonna say the same thing as you, and I kind of expected to be tastsome. Not that I have any inside information, but I just feel like if Drew Brees was gonna start, we would have heard about him practicing more at this point in the week. Um. And and so I love the Chiefs. I've said all year. When the Chiefs are favored by uh, this small number, you've got to take them. You've got to expect them to win. They again, they haven't really been blowing most teams out, but they have always found a way to win, except for that one game against the Raiders. And the spread here is only a field goal. So I like them to win. Buy a field goal. Um. You know, this game is in New Orleans and so a lot of times the home team gets three points, so the spreads only three. Is that? Are they saying that this game would be a pick them on a neutral field? I don't think so. I think if these two teams played in the Super Bowl, I think the Chiefs would be favored. I don't think that's a hot take to say that the Chiefs are the defending champs who have only lost one game and they look great. Um. So you know that this line is coming after the Saints they finally lost a game. And and again, I don't want to over emphasize that it happens teams lose games. Um, I didn't kill the Chiefs when they lost to the Raiders earlier in the season. Um, but there are some concerns that the Chiefs are gonna have some stretch where they, you know, score two or three touchdowns in a hurry, and they might need taste them to score some points and keep up with them. And I don't think that's gonna happen. Um. You know, I'm just any time that she sur minus three, I'm taking them, and I'm gonna hold to that even through the end of the regular season, through the playoffs. I like him at this number, for sure. I love the Chiefs, uh for basically almost every single thing Mitch said. First of all, you're lay in a field all with the best team in best offense in the NFL. Road home doesn't matter, especially this year the Chiefs have. The Chiefs don't try. I mean, it's that simple. And then when they decide to try their unstoppable I have a feeling because they're playing probably the best team in the NFC, maybe the second best team if you want to go that way, and they're on the road. I think they're gonna try from the start to the finish. I don't think you're gonna see the lack of daisical play you've seen the past few weeks, which means three points should be a simple car. I mean, Taysom Hill is not gonna be able to keep up with the chief offense. Again, this is a gambling podcast. I'll give you a little tidbit here. On a Thursday, I looked on the gambling site that I used to make my wagers. The Chiefs team total on Sunday is twenty seven and a half. I will be betting that today and that will be my biggest bet on some day by far. Next game is Sunday Night, NBC flexed in Dallas, San fran got the boot. Brown's Giants gets in there on Sunday Night, and uh, the Browns line keeps going up. Last check minus six against the Giants. No, Daniel Jones will we called McCoy total forty four and a half. Mitch Oh, I hadn't seen that this was at minus six. I thought we were still dealing with the lower number. I mean, the big news in this game is that Jason Garrett is out with COVID, and so now it becomes the Freddie Kitchens revenge game. I don't wanna you know, gloater or sound gleeful. Obviously we're you know, we're wishing all the best for Jason Garrett and everybody who's out with COVID all season. And that goes out saying and we all feel that way. Um. All that said it, you know, it's like exciting that it's gonna be Freddy Kitchens against the Browns. Uh. You know, all this game is missing is Odell Beckham playing and then it would be, uh, you know, a double revenge game. But anyway, I think I was gonna say, you know, I was prepared to say you have to go Browns here, um, although you know I was thinking that about a smaller number. I just I love their offense ever since Nick Chubb came back. Um, I think the Browns they went through a little bit of a lull in the middle of the season where they lost to some good teams and a lot of that was wild Chubb was out and I just think since he's back, he and Cream Hunt together, um, are just such a good one to punch and they make life much easier on Baker Mayfield. And you know you're looking at the Giants, who uh started to have a surge of their own and for a while looked like they were going to be the NFC East champs. Now you've got, uh, you know, the Daniel Jones injuries last week. I don't know if he even should have been on the field. Um. And so now it's gonna be called McCoy time. UM. You wonder if this game would have been flexed into prime time if they knew it was gonna be called McCoy and they knew the Giants were gonna lose to the Cardinals seven. It's possible that they are regretting that now. Uh. Not that we would go back to uh Cowboys Niners, but maybe they could have found something else that we liked. UM. You know the uh, I will say the under forty four. If this number is still forty four, that number is a little bit tempting to me. UM. I was looking at the Giant schedule. They've played four in a row, and seven of eight have gone under that number. UM or under or on that number. I think, So, you know, I don't know, my my gut says I. I like the Browns. I kind of like the under, but I just think there is some uncertainty around UM this game, just giving you know, everything going on, and who's gonna be out? I saw, I mean, the Giants have some injuries on defense. I saw it looks like Bradbury's gonna be out. I didn't see all the other names. We're gonna be out, So, like everything says, I want to lean toward the Browns, but they have been a surprise this season. So I think at the end of the day, given all that I'm talking to myself in circles, I think it is probably a stay away from me. Only one Colton McCoy mentioned so far, so I'll have to I'll have to stay his name a couple of times. Uh frankly, I mean, look, last week, Daniel Jones was completely a mobile in immobile. Daniel Jones is the worst quarterback than than Colt McCoy. So I'm a little bit disappointed that this this line moved a little bit because I do really like Cleveland in this one. I worry a little bit about you know, Monday night, uh, physical emotional draining game, short week. You know, do they do they start a little sluggish here against a giant scene that's just gonna try and just run it down their throats and run the ball forty times in this game, we'll see just the Giants are going to score points. Uh. The Browns we've seen when they're normal weather games against sort of non world beating defenses. Uh, they've been fine offensively, they put up enough points. I don't think they're a great offense, but uh, they're a good enough offense that they're gonna uh uh probably cover a touchdown spread here in as in East Rutherford is how you say it? Uh? And and one quick trend here for the Giants. Uh. We we've hit on this quite a few times the last couple of years. Uh two and thirteen against the spread as a home underdog of seven points or less. Uh. Since so I do like Cleveland here a lot in thirteen is a home underdog seven points or touchdown or lass Yep. Yeah, it's a huge stay away game from me. I could see the Browns really having to letdown after that loss. I think they'll win. I don't know about the cover, and you know I'm not even the under you think the under here is a lock. I don't trust the Browns defense enough to take that. The Giants can't put up I don't know, seventeen twenty points in here. I mean you can't. You can't tell me the game can't be twenty seven twenty Cleveland, you know, Um, I mean Colt McCoy is not good, but he's serviceable at least, so you know, I don't think they're completely dead, but I'm not putting my money on this game, that's for sure. The next game is the Monday Night or not a good one Steelers minus twelve and a half in Cincinnati. The total is forty and a half. Gary. This went's a dog right here on Monday Night. Yeah, it's it's it's a It's a tough week for primetime football. Uh. Look, I think the Steelers are probably gonna win this one comfortably. They have issues offensively, We've we've seen it. Uh Ben Roethlisberger is hampered in some way by that knee injury, and I think that's that's affecting his ability to actually get the ball down field in any way, shape or form. But this Bengal s team is completely mailed it in. I mean we were talking about, you know, do the Patriots mailed in earlier in the show. I mean, this Bengals team looks like they would rather be anywhere than playing organized football every every week now. So, uh, I would guess even if the Steelers are are sort of you know and not clicking offensively, they probably still win this game, like you know, twenties seven six or something like that. Mitch, Yeah, I think you're right, Gary. I think you have to go Steelers. Um, Bengals. Their points scored the last five games working backward seven seven, seventeen, nine, ten, and the only reason it was seventeen was because they had a kickoff return that was about a hundred yards possibly more if I remember right. So five games in a row, the offense hasn't scored more than ten points. They are cooked. And I know that Pittsburgh D is banged up, but this feels like a get right game for them. And you know, the guys they have left are still good. Um, they just have fewer of them, but they still have enough talented players. This is a game they need. They were you know, they have to right the ship and uh and that uh, you know, in the hunt for home field and or you know, good seating or whatever. Um. Their schedule, I think that they have tougher games coming up. This is a game they just have to win. Now. The other thing is we have talked about this forever that the Steelers seem to always play down to competition and they'll have games in the middle of the season where they'll they'll just totally lay an egg and have a dud against somebody. And they did that earlier in this season. They've done it in years past, But I think that kind of happens more when they're coasting. Like I think this is a situation where they need it, given that they're coming off two straight losses and they know it's the Colts and the Browns with the two games coming up to finish the season. This is not a situation where I expect them to coast and lay an egg and win a game like seventeen to twelve or something like that. You know, I think they will go in and uh and take care of business and you know, fourteen tops, Like I just I don't think Cincinnati is good enough. They're gonna score enough points to keep up. So even though the spread is almost two touch downside, you know, you mean, are you projecting seven safeties for the Steelers on on miss snap they go out of the end zone? Maybe at least at least one or two safeties. That's fun let's get a prop that going. That'll spice up your Monday night. I think a little more than a side or a total. But yeah, you know, I like Pittsburgh here. I love the Steelers. You guys basically summed it up. The Bengals are done, they are waiting for next year. The Steelers are gonna lose the next two games. They lost the last two games. They need this one desperately. They'll get it. It'll be a blowout. If the Steelers can't cover two touchdowns against the Bengals, don't even bother at the playoffs, because what's gonna happen then this is? This should be an easy thirty to three, thirty to six, thirty to ten. Uh, Steelers win. All right. That reps up for games we like this week. We're gonna hit on a lot of games. This is the most lightning round games we've had all the season. We don't want the board, so we're gonna try to go through these quickly. These are games that you know, there's a couple of good ones in here, but for whatever reason, neither the three of us don't like any of them. So let's kick off our lightning round and go through these games quickly. Okay, that's right. I was this week. There's just maybe it's it's snow instead of lightning because of the Nor Easter we have and you don't hear snow, so that there was a sound effect for snow and there all here we go. Baltimore minus twelve and a half at home against the Jaguars, total forty seven and a half. Mitch, Yeah, um, Baltimore obviously dangerous right now. It feels like they fell off the map a little because they lost three straight, but you go back and look at those games. It was they had the debaccle against the Patriots, and then it was the Titans and then the Steelers in that Thanksgiving game that got rescheduled, Um, you know, and then earlier in the season their losses were the Chiefs and the Steelers. So like they're they're five losses, aren't bad. That gets them to eight and five. It feels like they're having a good season. But um, you know, people aren't high on them because they're well, I guess people are higher on them now than they were two weeks ago. But like you know, they're eight in the a f C and they're not fourteen and two. They were last year, but it still feels like people are underestimating them. I think they're gonna find a way to get in the playoffs. Um, you know, the Jaguars, they're fighting hard. I think we all feel the same way about how this game is gonna go down, and it's just in the lightning round because the spreads a little bit high. If maybe pick one, I would lean the Ravens, but it's a little bit too high. I think Gardner Minshew coming back. I do like his uh backdoor cover capabilities. I think he's better than Mike Glennon, so um, you know, if it was another week at Glennon, maybe I would go all out and pick the Ravens here, but the backdoor cover scares me off just a little bit to put it in the lightning round. But I still lean Baltimore. I mean, I'm sorry, Gary, same same thing here. I mean, look, I had the under in Jacksonville, Tennessee last week, and and that was coming in really easily until the Jaguars went to Minshew and then I was sweating out a little bit. Still didn't come close, But the Minshew's best quarterback on the team, and I don't even think he's a great quarterback, but he's he's so much better than Glennon in Luton. I don't know, I didn't play last week or you didn't start last week, uh whatever, but yeah, I leaned both more, but I'd stay away. I'm glad you clarify that you don't think Gardener Mincher is a great quarterback, because then I'd have to ask you like what you consider Aaron Rodgers. I mean, I listened the Braven should blow him out here, but the line is high, so um, I'm not really comfortable laying that twelve and a half, So stay away from me next game this I I had it written down, I croussed it out. I may go back to it Cult minus that and a half against the Texans total fifty and a half. I'll just go first on this one because I almost I had the Cults written down as the best bet, and then of course that that that half on the seven. I think the Texans are done, but Deshaun Watson scares me. Uh still um, but I do um. I've come around on the Colts. Took me a while, but I'm there now. Uh. They should be able to win this game fairly easily. Um, I'm just torn about whether or not the best bet it. Yeah, yeah, it's it's it's it's the Watson fagger, right, I mean he was. He was a botched snap away for him. Uh beating the Colts a couple of weeks ago. Uh yeah, I think the Texans are probably checked out. I think they probably get blown out. But again, division rivals, and you look at these two teams. Uh. The Colts had a fourteen point win in the playoffs, the twenty eight team playoffs played in year nineteen. But other than that, their last uh you know, going back to the start of twenty season, three point game, three point game, seven point game, three point games, six point games. So uh, they played each other close when that spread inches over a touchdown. It's it's tough to tough to gotch I am. I'm the last person. I'm hopping off the Texans bandwagon. You know, I've loved this team all year, and I said I was the last one. I'm finally renouncing the Texans. Uh, you live is thirty six seven to the Bears, and I hop off. I still I love Deshaun Watson too, and think he keeps you in every game, but he is uh, quickly running out of people to throw the ball too. And Jimmy, I'm with you. I've sort of begrudgingly come around on the Colts. I was lowing them coming in. I did not think that the Philip Rivers signing was gonna work out great for them. And then I think the first two or three weeks of the season, he threw a couple interceptions that were like confirmation bias for me, and I was like, Okay, that's proof that I'm right. But he's been better and and yeah, I like the team. They had that one blip against Tennessee when they basically didn't have their defensive line in place. Uh, and they let Derrick Henry run all over them, which you know dark Henry does to most teams. But um, yeah, you know, I like the Colts, but I'm not gonna best bet against my Texans, even though I'm totally awesome. Here's another one I toyed with for a long time, but I can't. I can't do it with with Dwayne Haskins or whoever. It's gonna be Alex Smith not playing most likely didn't Prize not practiced all week, and so it's the Seahawks. Giving five and a half in Washington, and the total here is forty four and a half. I mean, I you know, if if no Ox Smith is there, definitely lean under. But um, I'd love to grab five and a half. But I just can't do it when Alex Smith will not be quarterbacking the Washington football team. Mitch, Yeah, I feel the same way. And also Antonio Gibson being out as a big loss too. I think he really broke out this season and made life easier on whoever was quarterbacking. Um. But yeah, now going back to Dwayne Haskins without him, I think that's a lot to ask. It is a patented body clock game for the Seahawks. Although we have talked before that Seattle is like the one team in the league that bucks the trend, and uh, I don't. I don't want to say that they particularly cover all the time. I forget what the stats are, but I know that it doesn't hurt them as much as it hurts many other teams. So you know, I like Seattle to win the game for all the reasons um that we've said. But yeah, five and a half seems like a lot for a team flying East. So this is one I'm gonna leave this one alone. Yeah, you guys are you guys are talking about this Washington offense. They even tried to score points in like the last three leaks. Are just letting the defense that that offensive ran in the first half against the four Irons and Alex Smith was still in there. They were completely disinterested. Actually are very good legit defense. Josh Allen didn't think so. They got no pass for us. You can move the ball on the fort if you wanted. They just aren't interested in doing it. They're they're just gonna punt and wait until someone makes a mistake. I'll tell you why I'm staying away from this game though, uh possible bringing the forecast in in d C. In this game, that turf is is trash. It's always try it's it's basically loose gravel and dirt. That's just like spray painted green for uh the sake of television. And I mean, this game could be just a total mess. Uh, but we'll we'll see. I'm not going hear this Washington team at home on a crafty day. You're giving me flashback to the game last year. I want to look up the exact score and make sure I get this right. I remember I best bet. Yeah, I had the forty niners. This is what I thought. It was a ten point spread and they won the game nine nothing in the rain in Washington, and I didn't cover on that one. That was that was a traumatic, bad beat for me last season. Um. So yeah, if it's another one of those games, I'm happy to be far away from it the next game. I have a feeling it. Well, you're gonna get similar analysis with the Jaguar raving game. And that's Tennessee minus eleven at home. That's Lions total fifty one and a half. Gary. Yeah, I mean it sounds like no Matthew Stafford, and I don't know how the lines would be competitive. We saw them lose every game without Stafford a year ago, So you gotta like the Titans more in this one. I can't imagine anyone actually placing money on the Lions right now. And uh, well you know me if I'm saying that, uh, it's got to be true. So yeah, you lean Tennessee here. Uh. The Titans do have a habit of playing down to their competition, which makes you a little bit nervous, but uh boy, it's it's It's just it's it's impossible to come up with the justification for the Lions, uh coming within a possession of an NFL opponent right now, Mitch I was surprised Chase Daniel has only started five games in his career. He's been around forever, but you know, I would have thought he would have gotten at least one season with a little more run than that. Um, not that that particularly changes my opinion of his abilities or this game. UM, you know, I'm with you. I feel the exact same way. Um, it feels like the Titans are gonna also get ahead and just feed Derrick Henry. I think now people are starting to realize that two thousand yards is in range, and people are talking about him as a possible m VP candidate, which I don't think is going to happen. But I can see why they'd want to just feed him, although maybe they'd be better served if they get a big lead just letting him, letting him sit on the bench, and maybe I'll let Dante Foreman get him rue. I like him. He's a very underrated guy, is like a third running back or whatever. But uh, my prop my propit, Dante Foreman over twenty five and a half yards rushing in this game. That's uh, that's where I'm looking for to spend my money. Yeah, I mean, listen the Titans ballot. I don't even know why I'm not best betting Tennessee minus eleven. I guess I just see that eleven and get scared off. I'll put him in a teaser and and be happy with that next game. The Vikings minus three of firs total forty seven and a half. Mitch, Yeah, I mean this game. Uh, by gut says go Vikings here. I do think they're better, um they want They beat the Bears nineteen thirteen back in Week ten, which feels like a lifetime ago for both teams. I know the Bears finally snapped that six game losing streak um with that win we talked about earlier against the Texans last week, but I don't know. I'm still I'm so far out on the Bears that it feels like it's going to take them more than one week to get back in my good graces. So I can't imagine picking them here. You know, my gut, says Vikings, But I don't have a strong, a strong feel. Yeah, I'd lean Vikings too, but again it was Folds when they played in Soldier Field earlier. Folds had no chance of functioning behind that offensive line. Trabisky gives him something of a chance because of his mobility. So uh yeah, I mean it's it's it's a coin toss the numbers, right, I'd stay away from this one. I'm still stung from the Vikings burning me against the Cowboys. I'm off their games and I can't bet. I can't watch the Bears. I cannot watch them. So it's a stay away from me just for that reason. So I don't get have a gambling insight into it. I just can't sit there and watch the Bears. Next game, Niners minus three in Dallas total five, Gary, I guess i'd lean Dallas a little bit again this morning. Our team they don't have a pass rush, and you know, Andy Dalton gets frazzled when he faces teams with a good pass rush. And even though his offensive line is banged up, they can handle this fortys pass us here. So uh I lean Cowboys here. You know, I'm not not crazy about it. I'm bullish on on the fact that maybe the Cowboys defense turn things around. Are are getting used to this Mic Nolan system a little bit more. But uh, we've we've talked about it. There are games where they just don't tackle. And if you're not going to tackle these forty Niners backs who can break off eight yard runs, it's you know they're gonna lose this game anyway. But I'd lean Dallas and and not feel very good about it. Yeah, I lead forty Niners um for some of those reasons, just that they're going to run the ball. And I think, especially hearing some of the comments that Shanahan has made about Nick Mullins this week, sounds like he might be on a short leash, or at least they'll just keep it out of his hands. Uh. Then again, where he as a Raheem Mostert fantasy owner this season, I can tell you it's been frustrating with him in and out of the lineup. It could be a big Jeff Wilson game, but I just think I think they're gonna try and run the ball thirty times and shorten the game. I don't know. I mean the thought of the thought of betting on the Cowboys and banking on their turnaround, I don't love. And you know, I hate this game. This was flexed out of prime time for a reason, and I think you can just bury it. Fewer people will bet on the game, fewer people will watch the game, and I think that's just for the better. Yeah, I don't know. I if you, if I had to pick the game, I'd go Niners. I just don't trust the Cowboys. It wasn't like they, you know, blew out the Bengals last week, and and that was the Andy Dalton revenge game. Now he's got no motivation against the Niners. I've met the Niners. Better coach, much better head coach. Take a chance there, Uh, next game. This is an interesting one, Rams. I'll tell you, if it was seventeen, I probably would have best bet him seventeen and a have point it rich against the Jets. The total is forty four. Mitche It's funny he said that. I'm looking at my notes and I had written down if it was thirteen, I could see myself betting it. Yeah. I mean, we all feel the same way about both of these teams in this game. And I think the reason it's in the lightning round is this because the line is so high. I don't know, I mean, like I said earlier. Russell Wilson was pulled in the third quarter against the Jets last week, so you wonder if if that's gonna happen again. But even if it does, I mean, you can't have a backdoor cover unless you actually score some points. And I don't know if the Jets are gonna be able to do that. While you guys talk, I'm looking up the Jets the rest of their ponds. Don't see if a line will get that high again. So you guys you can talk. That's I'll toss it to Gary because I don't have much else to say. Look at the Bengals to see what they're gonna do down the stretch here. Uh yeah, I mean look, I bet me over last week and see Yawks Jets because I figured, oh yeah, Jets are gonna score a garbage touchdown or two. I mean, Sam Donald's got to sort of replenish his stock going into the off season when he's probably gonna be looking for a new team, uh and all that stuff. And they just they didn't. And then they got the ball back with two minutes left and just essentially ran two running plays and and just left. So yeah, you know, I lean Rams here that that's an absurd line for uh, a Ram scene that doesn't put up a ton of points. And on top of that, I just I can't imagine the Jets just not scoring points in back to back weeks in this situation with Donald under center and again just looking to recover his stock in some way, shape or form. Yeah, I mean I would pick the Rams if I if I was betting it, I'd bet the Rams. I take the chance on the half point. I'm not gonna best bet it. But how do you how do you go to the Jets in this one on the road here against the Rams, team that needs a game? Uh less game yep less game is uh an interesting one here? There is a play I like in this game but has nothing to do with this podcast. I'll tell you the Arizona Cardinals or minus six at home against the Eagles. The total is forty nine. Again, the team total for the Eagles in this game is twenty and a half. I think Jalen Hurts will top that, so that'll be my play. I'm not picking the I want to bet the Eagles here plus six because the Jalen Hurts. But again, it's a rookie quarterback going on the road. Arizona's defense is decent pass rush, so I'm not gonna go there. Um, and that's all I have to say about that. Gary. Yeah, two things bothering me that hurts. One, I don't know why the Saints seemed to be so caught off guard violent readoption stuff. It seems like that's what you're gonna do with Jalen Hurts. It is a it's a limited passing game. Now. Of course, Salen Hurts is not going to do the uh multiple bone headed things that Carson Wentz did every week. So you're taking the turnover uh you know factor out of that. But uh if C. J. Gardner Johnson hangs onto that pick six at the in the fourth quarter on Sunday, are we all thinking about Jalen Hurts differently this week? And the ball though, like whence they couldn't even move the ball at least here the ball was moving a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, And and again what you're gonna get that there could be a pick six in the game very easily. Yep, it was. It was. It was big plays, uh, you know, big running plays, chunk plays like that. I I don't know, is it sustainable. I hope it is. I mean, I hope Jalen Hurts plays well and this is an interesting game, but uh, I don't know my senses. Just when our Cardinals put up twenty four points and the Eagles hang around like ten and thirteen and and that's uh, that's that. And I'm not crazy about the Cardinals, And that's why I'm staying away from this one. Mitch Gary, I think the NFL takes economy is sophisticated enough that surely we wouldn't change how we judge Shalen Hurts based on the performance of his team's defense after some players got hurt in the middle of the game. I can't imagine that changing people's minds. Um so, I speaking as an Eagles fan, as you guys know, uh, and I you know, I never hied it. I mean, last last Sunday was awesome. Like, I know, some people are mad about the draft position and they'd rather lose out and get like the fourth or fifth pick of the draft. Like, come on, that was a great game. After a horrible season we've endured, it's fun to watch them play well, and at least it's exciting to see what Hurts can do now. I know a lot of people are also saying it makes the offseason even more complicated, Um, given that there's now a bigger quarterback controversy than if he had played poorly. But I mean, come on, you know, you want to watch your team play well. You want to watch your young players show some promise. Again, rookie quarterbacks, sometimes they are surprising. You're right. The Saints seems caught off guard, especially in the first half by Hurts. And you wonder if now Arizona has a game of film and uh knows what to expect, although they should have already known what to expect. Um, So we'll see. I mean, for all these reasons, it's to stay away from me. I do. I kind of like the Eagles. I'm sort of afraid to say that out loud. Um, the injuries in the secondary are concern um on the Eagles part. I think the Cardinals are also banged up. Um. And you know, a bunch of guys were not in practice today Thursday. But um, they're gonna have some guys like questionable. We don't know who's playing Sunday. But I mean that's the case for pretty much every team in the league. At this point in the season. Um, so you know, I want to say that I like the Eagles, but I just I can't bring myself to actually best bet at or fully just like say that sentence out loud. I have to just kind of do like a half mumble and then just kind of trail off and never actually get to my point. All right, Well, that wraps up the board for Week fifteen. We've covered all the games. We will now try to get some success going here in our best bets segment just three this week. My two sides are Browns minus six at Giants on Sunday night, and I've got the Dolphins minus one against the Patriots at home and uh going one total that under forty nine in Broncos Bills. I think you like to Jimmy, I do. I have four and that's one of them under in Buffalo Denver over in Tampa Bay Atlanta forty nine and a half Chiefs minus three Steelers minus tall and a half. Mitch, Alright, I have four, and we've got we all like a lot of the same things this week. So I like that, uh, Dolphins minus one against the Patriots with Gary, and then I've got to where I'm with Jimmy those Chiefs minus three in New Orleans and the Steelers covering that twelve and a half in Cincinnati. And then I thought about joining Gary with the Browns there, but I'm gonna leave that one alone. And for my fourth game, I'll go Packers minus eight and a half against Carolina. So I'm on four favorites. This week. Can't possibly go worse than last week. Well, you'd be surprised you won a game last week. I guess I wouldn't be surprised. I should say, Uh, well, well I like this. We're all on. I got I'm on with some with you, I'm on some with Gary. You and Gary on something so that. But it'll be interesting to keep it eye on for Week fifteen. All right, that wraps up this edition of the mm QBI Gambling Podcast. Well, thank you for listening, and we will see you next week for Week sixteen right here on the MMQB Gambling Podcast. Good luck the week

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