Rising unemployment is expected to add to the case for a lower OCR. 

Unemployment's hit a five-year high of 5.2% and is expected to rise further. 

Economists now broadly expect the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate by another 25-basis-points to 3% in two weeks. 

BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking further cuts now seem likely. 

He says his team have been forecasting a neutral rate of 2.75% for years, but there's a chance the OCR could get to 2.5 percent in the current cycle. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Rising unemployment is expected to add to the case for a lower OCR.&nbsp;
Unemployment's hit a five-year high of 5.2% and is expected to rise further.&nbsp;
Economists now broadly expect the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate by another 25-basis-points to 3% in two weeks.&nbsp;
BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking further cuts now seem likely.&nbsp;
He says his team have been forecasting a neutral rate of 2.75% for years, but there's a chance the OCR could get to 2.5 percent in the current cycle.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.

Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the unemployment rate rising to 5.2%, expected OCR cut

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/3e08846f-f8a7-4c67-9352-b331016c371c/transcript

The Primary Production Select Committee is going to have a look into, well, primary production. Namely, the Hawke’s Bay scenario of Heinz and McCain's, both of whom have announced closures and job losses. 

A briefing is different to an inquiry, just in case you are thinking the committee is going to come up with something tangible. 

This is the sort of sad handwringing we get into around bad news. 

The simple truth is some industries are undercut by consumer choice. In this case, the consumer likes cheap, and the cheaper the better. 

And part of the problem in first world countries is we like to pay people decent wages and that tends to add to the price. 

Supermarkets invent home brands and those brands undercut brands like McCain. Peaches from China outsell peaches from Hawke’s Bay. 

But here is the issue for the committee – I assume they know all this. I know all this because it's not hard to know. 

So once they find all this out, they will also look at the impact on communities. I think I can help them here as well: it's not good. 

People losing jobs do one of several things; 

1) Stop working, 

2) Find a new job, 

3) Move out of town. 

I note the two local mayors in Hawke’s Bay have welcomed the briefing. Brilliant, but my question is, how does that help? 

No one likes any of this. We would all like Heinz and McCain to be thriving, but they are not. 

I bet Americans would like farmers to buy more cows and raise more beef, but they aren't doing that either. So they buy our beef at ever-increasing prices. 

Quality is a good game to be in, if you can sell it. It turns out in wine and beef and lamb, and maybe merino, we can. In peaches we can't. 

So the places that host the factories, that grow the fruit or the trees, and the places that put them into things like cans, flounder or struggle until they fail. 

Looking into a story told many times over, often in rural or provincial New Zealand, is not going to change a thing. 

One of the mayors said this should get to the bottom of why this is happening. I think I just told you that and what can be done differently. 

On that last part I wish them all the luck in the world.   

The Primary Production Select Committee is going to have a look into, well, primary production. Namely, the Hawke’s Bay scenario of Heinz and McCain's, both of whom have announced closures and job losses.&nbsp;
A briefing is different to an inquiry, just in case you are thinking the committee is going to come up with something tangible.&nbsp;
This is the sort of sad handwringing we get into around bad news.&nbsp;
The simple truth is some industries are undercut by consumer choice. In this case, the consumer likes cheap, and the cheaper the better.&nbsp;
And part of the problem in first world countries is we like to pay people decent wages and that tends to add to the price.&nbsp;
Supermarkets invent home brands and those brands undercut brands like McCain. Peaches from China outsell peaches from Hawke’s Bay.&nbsp;
But here is the issue for the committee – I assume they know all this. I know all this because it's not hard to know.&nbsp;
So once they find all this out, they will also look at the impact on communities. I think I can help them here as well: it's not good.&nbsp;
People losing jobs do one of several things;&nbsp;
1) Stop working,&nbsp;
2) Find a new job,&nbsp;
3) Move out of town.&nbsp;
I note the two local mayors in Hawke’s Bay have welcomed the briefing. Brilliant, but my question is, how does that help?&nbsp;
No one likes any of this. We would all like Heinz and McCain to be thriving, but they are not.&nbsp;
I bet Americans would like farmers to buy more cows and raise more beef, but they aren't doing that either. So they buy our beef at ever-increasing prices.&nbsp;
Quality is a good game to be in, if you can sell it. It turns out in wine and beef and lamb, and maybe merino, we can. In peaches we can't.&nbsp;
So the places that host the factories, that grow the fruit or the trees, and the places that put them into things like cans, flounder or struggle until they fail.&nbsp;
Looking into a story told many times over, often in rural or provincial New Zealand, is not going to change a thing.&nbsp;
One of the mayors said this should get to the bottom of why this is happening. I think I just told you that and what can be done differently.&nbsp;
On that last part I wish them all the luck in the world. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: Here's what the Parliamentary briefing on food plant closures will show

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/911acaa7-2035-4eb7-afd6-b43d0173fd83/transcript

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. 

 

Christchurch: 9/10 

The stadium, the opening, the spend, the party, and the vibe. That is what all of New Zealand should be. 

 

The Washington Hilton: 1/10 

Between yet more violence and yet more conspiracy from all sides, too much of America is irreparably sick. 

 

King Charles: 8/10 

By any standards or count, a tour de force. Solid, statesman-like, witty, clever and brilliantly executed. It is soft power, awesome diplomacy, brilliant engagement, all wrapped up in a flash royal bow. 

 

Winston vs the National Party: 4/10 

I get it's election year. I get National are bleeding support to NZ First. But if they're not careful someone is going to say one thing or do one thing a bit edgier than they might have been expected, and it will all hit the fan. 

  

The diesel deal: 8/10 

Another reminder that when Peters isn't stirring, the Coalition has actually handled the real issues pretty damn well. 

 

LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW 

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/commentary-box-andrew-saville-and-jason-pine-discuss-super-round-fury-v-joshua-nfl/">Christchurch: 9/10</a>&nbsp;
The stadium, the opening, the spend, the party, and the vibe. That is what all of New Zealand should be.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The Washington Hilton: 1/10&nbsp;
Between yet more violence and yet more conspiracy from all sides, too much of America is irreparably sick.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
King Charles: 8/10&nbsp;
By any standards or count, a tour de force. Solid, statesman-like, witty, clever and brilliantly executed. It is soft power, awesome diplomacy, brilliant engagement, all wrapped up in a flash royal bow.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Winston vs the National Party: 4/10&nbsp;
I get it's election year. I get National are bleeding support to NZ First. But if they're not careful someone is going to say one thing or do one thing a bit edgier than they might have been expected, and it will all hit the fan.&nbsp;
&nbsp;&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/shane-jones-associate-energy-minister-on-the-deal-with-z-energy-to-stockpile-another-90-million-litres-of-diesel/">The diesel deal: 8/10</a>&nbsp;
Another reminder that when Peters isn't stirring, the Coalition has actually handled the real issues pretty damn well.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW&nbsp;

Mark the Week: King Charles' visit was a tour de force by any standard

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a9e8b7b6-6eaa-4f92-b653-b43c01813e0a/transcript

We can thank the new Reserve Bank Governor for ending the week on a high note. 

New charter details were announced yesterday. 

Charters and Reserve Banks were once as dry as old dust but these days I think we have a new understanding of the importance of their role. 

Out of Covid and economic shambles has come more talk than ever about cash rates and inflation and debt and wasteful expenditure. 

The main change for me is the Monetary Policy votes will be made public, and not a moment too soon. 

They are already starting to hold press conferences after each decision. Some decisions are statements, some are reviews and, as such, carry different amounts of detail and information. But the idea that they front after each decision shouldn't be new. 

It should have always happened. Just what was it about the thinking at the lower end of the terrace in the capital that had them believing that simply putting out a statement was plenty. 

Why wouldn’t they want questions? Why wouldn’t they want to be held to account? 

Given everything is streamed these days you can watch it all. There's no need for a journalist to cut and paste a few so-called highlights to skew the narrative. Free and open and complete accountability should be welcomed, and this is overdue. 

But as for the vote, the same thinking applies. If you hold the power of a committee member and if you get a say in a mechanism as important as the country's cash rate, once again, what's your argument for remaining quiet? To keep it a secret? 

If the vote is 5-1, who is the one and why? What's wrong with an explanation? For example, there were four dissenting votes yesterday at the Fed. Let's hear about it. 

Knowledge is power and the fact we are only at this place in 2026 is a crime of sorts. A condescending attitude where they clearly thought we didn’t need to know. 

So far new Governor Dr Anna Breman has introduced pressers, changed the charter and promised to at least partially look through the immediate inflationary impact of the war. 

So far, so impressive. I like the cut of her gib.

Orr vs Breman? No contest. 

We can thank the new Reserve Bank Governor for ending the week on a high note.&nbsp;
New charter details were announced yesterday.&nbsp;
Charters and Reserve Banks were once as dry as old dust but these days I think we have a new understanding of the importance of their role.&nbsp;
Out of Covid and economic shambles has come more talk than ever about cash rates and inflation and debt and wasteful expenditure.&nbsp;
The main change for me is the Monetary Policy votes will be made public, and not a moment too soon.&nbsp;
They are already starting to hold press conferences after each decision. Some decisions are statements, some are reviews and, as such, carry different amounts of detail and information. But the idea that they front after each decision shouldn't be new.&nbsp;
It should have always happened. Just what was it about the thinking at the lower end of the terrace in the capital that had them believing that simply putting out a statement was plenty.&nbsp;
Why wouldn’t they want questions? Why wouldn’t they want to be held to account?&nbsp;
Given everything is streamed these days you can watch it all. There's no need for a journalist to cut and paste a few so-called highlights to skew the narrative. Free and open and complete accountability should be welcomed, and this is overdue.&nbsp;
But as for the vote, the same thinking applies. If you hold the power of a committee member and if you get a say in a mechanism as important as the country's cash rate, once again, what's your argument for remaining quiet? To keep it a secret?&nbsp;
If the vote is 5-1, who is the one and why? What's wrong with an explanation? For example, there were four dissenting votes yesterday at the Fed. Let's hear about it.&nbsp;
Knowledge is power and the fact we are only at this place in 2026 is a crime of sorts. A condescending attitude where they clearly thought we didn’t need to know.&nbsp;
So far new Governor Dr Anna Breman has introduced pressers, changed the charter and promised to at least partially look through the immediate inflationary impact of the war.&nbsp;
So far, so impressive. I like the cut of her gib.
Orr vs Breman? No contest.&nbsp;

Mike's Minute: I like the cut of Anna Breman's gib

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/38e32299-31de-4250-bd6b-b43c017b847d/transcript

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the unemployment rate rising to 5.2%, expected OCR cut

In 1 playlist(s)

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips