Rising unemployment is expected to add to the case for a lower OCR. 

Unemployment's hit a five-year high of 5.2% and is expected to rise further. 

Economists now broadly expect the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate by another 25-basis-points to 3% in two weeks. 

BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking further cuts now seem likely. 

He says his team have been forecasting a neutral rate of 2.75% for years, but there's a chance the OCR could get to 2.5 percent in the current cycle. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Rising unemployment is expected to add to the case for a lower OCR.&nbsp;
Unemployment's hit a five-year high of 5.2% and is expected to rise further.&nbsp;
Economists now broadly expect the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate by another 25-basis-points to 3% in two weeks.&nbsp;
BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking further cuts now seem likely.&nbsp;
He says his team have been forecasting a neutral rate of 2.75% for years, but there's a chance the OCR could get to 2.5 percent in the current cycle.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

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Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.

The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show. Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda. The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion, delivers the best talent, and always leaves you wanting more. The Mike Hosking Breakfast always cuts through and delivers the best daily on Newstalk ZB.

Open your mind to the world with New Zealand’s number one breakfast radio show.Without question, as New Zealand’s number one talk host, Mike Hosking sets the day’s agenda.The sharpest voice and mind in the business, Mike drives strong opinion,...

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the unemployment rate rising to 5.2%, expected OCR cut

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/3e08846f-f8a7-4c67-9352-b331016c371c/transcript

It's hard to know where to start.

The referee obviously didn’t help. Three captain's challenges and three times we were right and he wasn’t.

That’s before you get to the reports and sin bins and general pokey-nosery that he seemed to delight in.

The NRL has long had quality issues with officiating, and Saturday didn’t help the reputation.

The two points decision near the start surprised me, but that’s why Webster is coach and I'm not. He had clearly worked out all points were worth their weight in gold and given they were all, sort of, in front of the posts it worked well for us.

In fact a lot of the game worked out well for us. We had an early lead, a lead at halftime and a lead with a gap that gave you a sense we simply had to ride it out.

Until we didn’t, and the whole thing turned.

In that, as much as it might hurt to admit, was one of the great comebacks of the season. A side that was on the wrong end of most of the night rallies in a way the best sides can.

The Dolphins were awesome. In the end they deserved it. It wasn’t so much us capitulating as them being exceptional.

It's why the record was 50/50 going in. There is something about them and us that just makes it a coin toss. It ended the wrong way Saturday but it could easily be different next time.

The record is now 5-4, or 2-1 for the season, in favour of the Dolphins.

If you want glass half-full I've got two things for you;

1) I like the idea of not having a week off. I like the idea of the rhythm of a season.

2) It’s the Knights. We will beat the Knights and we will make the preliminary final.

So in that sense there isn't a lot to worry about. We get more football and presumably a full Eden Park and $1.5 million more for the NRL bottom line.

So two games until the final, three for the title.

It's still real, it's still alive. It's still our year.        

LISTEN ABOVE

It's hard to know where to start.
The referee obviously didn’t help. Three captain's challenges and three times we were right and he wasn’t.
That’s before you get to the reports and sin bins and general pokey-nosery that he seemed to delight in.
The NRL has long had quality issues with officiating, and Saturday didn’t help the reputation.
The two points decision near the start surprised me, but that’s why Webster is coach and I'm not. He had clearly worked out all points were worth their weight in gold and given they were all, sort of, in front of the posts it worked well for us.
In fact a lot of the game worked out well for us. We had an early lead, a lead at halftime and a lead with a gap that gave you a sense we simply had to ride it out.
Until we didn’t, and the whole thing turned.
In that, as much as it might hurt to admit, was one of the great comebacks of the season. A side that was on the wrong end of most of the night rallies in a way the best sides can.
The Dolphins were awesome. In the end they deserved it. It wasn’t so much us capitulating as them being exceptional.
It's why the record was 50/50 going in. There is something about them and us that just makes it a coin toss. It ended the wrong way Saturday but it could easily be different next time.
The record is now 5-4, or 2-1 for the season, in favour of the Dolphins.
If you want glass half-full I've got two things for you;
1) I like the idea of not having a week off. I like the idea of the rhythm of a season.
2) It’s the Knights. We will beat the Knights and we will make the preliminary final.
So in that sense there isn't a lot to worry about. We get more football and presumably a full Eden Park and $1.5 million more for the NRL bottom line.
So two games until the final, three for the title.
It's still real, it's still alive. It's still our year. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Mike's Minute: It's still our year

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9250c344-80a3-4bcb-8019-b4c401833d2d/transcript

One Nation has outlined their latest bid to bring down migration numbers over the next three years.

The party has vowed to bring down temporary migrant population by 750,000 over this timeframe, with a focus on international students and the families of skilled workers. 

Australian correspondent Steve Price says immigration is a big issue for Australia, but employers have raised concerns about what this announcement could mean for their temporary workers.

LISTEN ABOVE

One Nation has outlined their latest bid to bring down migration numbers over the next three years.
The party has vowed to bring down temporary migrant population by 750,000 over this timeframe, with a focus on international students and the families of skilled workers.&nbsp;
Australian correspondent Steve Price says immigration is a big issue for Australia, but employers have raised concerns about what this announcement could mean for their temporary workers.
LISTEN ABOVE

Steve Price: Australian correspondent on One Nation looking to bring down the number of international students

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9be75c60-484b-4cf5-b927-b4c401822f2e/transcript

Andrew Saville and Jason Pine joined Mike Hosking to review all the big sporting events of the weekend, including the All Blacks' defeat to the Springboks in Baltimore and whether the Warriors can shake off their weekend loss and beat the Knights. 

LISTEN ABOVE

Andrew Saville and Jason Pine joined Mike Hosking to review all the big sporting events of the weekend, including the All Blacks' defeat to the Springboks in Baltimore and whether the Warriors can shake off their weekend loss and beat the Knights.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Commentary Box: Andrew Saville and Jason Pine discuss the All Blacks' loss and the Warriors' upcoming clash against the Knights

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/e3a1ea8f-2376-4e69-8627-b4c4017fb4c7/transcript

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the unemployment rate rising to 5.2%, expected OCR cut

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