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You You must be twenty one or older and president Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. Gambling album Call one eight hundred next step or text next step to five three three four two in Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit ccpg dot org slash chat in Connecticut. One eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash rg in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia one eight hundred two seven zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan, called the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, a lot to discuss. This will be our only podcast of the week Thursday's Thanksgiving. We don't expect anyone to be download podcasts on Thanksgiving. We expect them to be betting on football. We expect them to be ignoring their family on thanks Giving. So Simon and I we're going to load this podcast like a thanks Giving plate. We are going to stuff it like a turkey. Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you. We're gonna get to the full slate. We'll get to the big balls better the week. We'll get to the Simon Says bet of the Week. I'm talking, of course about Simon Hunter Professional Better, my co host on the podcast. We will do a scooch roulettes. So I'm in. That's the best week chat Thanksgiving week. I mean, I feel like, if you're a dire football fan, this has to be your favorite holiday. You get to eat all day and you sit on the couch, no one gets anything to you just watch football all day. Just a great day and the games are always just terrible. So it's truly the best holiday in my opinion. It's an amazing day. I truly love it. It's very American too, Like Fourth of July you blow stuff up, which is very American, and then Thanksgiving which is very American. Hollid you just sit around, eat food and watch football. It's just football, and you know, it's exciting. It's very possible. We are probably right now the two best betters in America because what happened two weeks ago with our five picks we went four and one. What happened this past weekend with our five picks we went for and one we lost the Falcons on Thursday. We should have known better. Yeah, yeah, I canna lie. It's been known better. One of us should be blamed for that because that that was ugly. But we rallied because we told everybody a week ago today at the fucking Texans money line, people, this is the spot. Bet the Texans money line, Simon said, bet the Texans plus ten and a half. As soon as it came out. We did all those things. We had them in the contest we won. We had the Bears in the contest, we won. We had the Vikings in the contest, we won. Who else did we have in the contest? Yeah, the Colts in the contest, dude, and we have the money line. Yeah. So that's That's one of those weekends. Um. It's just a reminder to the fans of the show, like I love them, they're they're just loyal and they threw it with us all season. And last week we gave out Washington Football team money line against the Buccaneers. No other show in the world's giving you that money line that hit. We gave out Carolina's money line against Arizona that hit. Then this past weekend, we got the Colts money line that hit. We gave a Houston's money line that hit. That's I feel like that's what separates our show from other shows, is no one's giving that out. No one's giving out the one in eight Houston Texans on Tuesday to go beat Tennessee. Who's eight and one. It's It's what My favorite thing about betting is when you're seeing it clear like that, and it's just like when that game got going, I was sweating because they're kicking field goals. It was exactly how I planned. And I was giving ship to a lot of the guys I worked with because they rejected my big bet. Like Bob texted me, he goes Man, you're gonna kill me on this one, and I just texted them back, you made a mistake, because that's what they did. Passing on that Houston one. I knew that was a horrible number. I had it at seven, it was ten and a half. Loved it, loved it, and I was just not like, the only game we really had to sweat was that Vikings one, and I guess you could say bears but not really. But the Vikings one was so classic like I was thinking myself, I knew me Chatar got burned by Kirk, but luckily it all came through four. Now we're three games out of being back to five hundred, which it's crazy a thing because we were just dying there. Apparently we didn't do it as bad as I thought, because little if we go five O this week will be two games up five hundred. Yeah, it's been a crazy year in which all the fundamentals we believe in have not played an out of favor until the past couple of weeks when things have started to sort of round out into form. You mentioned just now your big bets, and I know the week before for people who know, like you're part of a syndicate, you've got a lot of clients. You will give out really big bets three to four times a year, and you won. The first couple of times you did this, you lost on the Colts plus seven. I think it was against the Titans, and that hurt quite a bit. In the last couple of weeks, you want to do the Niners. You this past week you wanted to do the Texans, And you've got to find a consensus and your team has to agree with you someone had DMed me. What are the other two big bets? You were on the Colts and what were the other two? You don't remember Ravens versus Chiefs. I think it was a Monday night ging. Yeah, so Ravens went out right, but I think we had four and a half or maybe three and a half, so that that was a nice one. And then I get I do do a little bit of chalk people people are shocked. I get chalky with it. I do if I think it's a good number. So it was the Chiefs and the Buccaneers money line, so it was a little money line parlay. That was my other biggest bet of the year, so that was what I got. God yeah, New England hit the doinked off the field goal. Um, so that's why I don't always do that, but I just do money line to play it safe. Where like we talked um last week, I couldn't believe it a professional group that came in really heavy on the Buccaneers of minus ten. That's rare that a pro group will take a double did your favorite They won't buy twenty. Clearly those guys knew that was a bad number last night. So I'm a coward. I go the other way. I try to do money lines. Some pro groups really do take those big numbers. And they went on, Yeah, I remember both of those plays that I remember talking about that Chiefs thing and how nervous you were and talking about on the podcast before the games because it felt too easy. Yeah, I hated that, like I hate when it feels too easy like that. That's that was the same reason. Like we talked on Sunday about the Colts, I had the number at three. I didn't get how the bookmakers were off by so many points. I didn't get why the Colts lion was plus seven. Sure enough, it played out they beat them by what forty points? So that's when the bookmakers just lay bad lines. That happens all the time. That's the scariest part though. Before the game start, you're like, I don't get it. Why what am I seeing that no one else is seeing? Why is this so easy? So that that was a nice one, But like you just said, we're already into We're already in the next week. Six weeks left, Chat, six weeks left in the season, Buddy, let's rock and roll. You got a Thursday Thanksgiving spectacular Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions. My phone has been blown up all morning because there are rumors out there that Thursday will be Matt Nagy's last team coaching the Chicago Bears. Right now, they're about three point favorites. They'll be the opening game against the Lions. I mean, look, last week it was Tim Boyle against Baker Mayfield. This week, I haven't seen reports about Jared Goff. It's Dalton, but it's Dalton, right, it's Andy Dalton. But I don't know if it's Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. Oh, I'm assume it's Tim Boyle. Here's what I think if it's Matt Nage's last games, though you don't think it will be. Isn't the whole Bears history. They've never fired a coach in season, I know, but I've been thinking about this and like, what's the point at this point they're not going to hire a new coach. Part of the reason they do that is because they are incredibly cheap and so like. They don't like to fire coaches and have to pay them out. It's why they brought back Ryan Pace, It's why they brought back Matt Nage. So my feeling is at this point, you're not going to go hire a new coach, so it doesn't matter if you fire him right now. You're gonna have to pay him either way. And it's only like the rest of the season, so it's a sunk cost. Why not just get of him. So that's the rumor going around in Chicago right now. Last night at the Bulls game when the Bulls were down by thirty to the Pacers, and yes I was watching that, shout out Stacy King and Adam Amine, best broadcasters in the n b A. They were chanting fighter Nag at the United Center. Swear to god, Chicago hates Matt Nagy. He's been a train wreck. So I get it. Yeah, that said Bears by three. If it's his last game with a steady Eddie Andy Dalton against a terrible Lions team, or is this the time the Lions rise up? Now? You know what to do here? You take the Bears here? Do you really do I believe the lines? Since I believe there's six and ten ats Thanksgiving their last sixteen. There's a weird trend on Thanksgiving. Favorites win, even public favorites like people getting all the money. These favorites usually cover and win. You really love a favorite, don't like on Thanksgiving. And that's why I think right end up with the Bears team. We want these rumors, Please more rumors, Media, give it, give us more. That's only gonna drive the public to the lines. We've seen it time and time again this year. When the public's coming and heavy on the lines, you want to go the other way. That's usually like this line reminds me a lot of the Eagles line. Remember that Eagles line was three and a half. Yea, So it's I'm already can see myself zagging on this. I made this over under two forty three. I see it's down to forty one forty one and a half in some books. So I'll be on the Bears. I'll be on the over. Just can see a lot of turnovers coming from that guy. Boyle, and you're not gonna have dead arm back there, Baker Mayfield, and I'd be able to cleet ball four yards. Andy Dalan's been putting it downfield, like that game against the Ravens. He was putting it downfield when he came in. He would completely changed that game once he came in, so clearly any Dlan's more comfortable in this offense and field. So the fact that it is Andy Dlon, Yeah, I feel good about taking the Bearers. And I liked this number at my three and a half. As long as it is below four or at four, that's that's that's a good number to me in this game. Well, this will be this will be the game that I'm watching and sweating and being miserable about. Well, I prep my Turkey road favorites ten and two against the Lions on Thanksgiving. I think it is our big balls Better the Week, love it. I mean the Bears is that is that by far the biggest one, Like no one wants to bet that team. The Bears are definitely that team that we're gonna wake up. We're gonna have instant regret when it's seven nothing Detroit and it's gonna feel like it's gonna take forever Ga Andy Dalton to get us over that hump. But I believe. I believe in this Bears team. This just this one game, Big Balls Better the Week on the Chicago Bears. My team, Chicago Bears. They have my heart, they have my money. Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys Raiders eight point underdogs seven and a half point underdogs on the road visiting the Cowboys, who did not look good. You and I completely disagreed on this Chiefs Cowboys game. Yeah, you also liked the over. I like the others, so I never said, ah, guy, guy, guy. I was noncommittal on the total. You know, you're pretty dismissive. People are saying you're a real dismissive about that, and I think he went under by twenty six points. I wasn't dismissive about that. You're referencing the show convinced me that we do on Sunday mornings, and I will say to people like, because we don't have a show on Thursday, this week, watch convinced me at eleven am on Sunday, because that is when you'll get like our freshest ideas on what's been happening during the week eleven am at Action Network HQ. Wasn't dismissive. I just liked what someone else was saying better about the Browns and the Lions turned out to be right. I loved the Chiefs minus two and a half. You talked me off it Raiders plus seven and a half, Or are we bet in the Cowboys. Oh God, I hate that I have to take the Raiders here, but I really don't want to. But ceedee Lamb's out, I'm a Cooper's out. That offense he looked lost, like no receivers could open against an awful Chief secondary. I know the Raiders secondary has been great this year, but I mean, man, that's that's a lot of points to be given the Cowboys when they have their two top weapons are out. So I will be taking the Raiders here. But ever since the Rugs accident, they just have not been right. They've had back to back games now they've just been terrible. So I will be on the Raiders, but I don't know if this is gonna be one of my better bets of the week. I don't get this wise guy love for the Raiders, to be honest, Like it continued last week with the Bengals. It happened the week before. They've gotten blown out in both games. Why can't wise guys quit the Raiders? I told you a really wise guy group came in and bet their under of wins after that whole incident happen, and they bet the under at six, which is like crazy because they're at five wins, so there are some groups out there that were on this um. I think they're looking at the still same point from I'm looking at where it's like their car is. Yeah, obviously has been good these last couple of weeks, but he is good this year. I think he's in the league in passing yards and you have a defense against pressure when they rush four. That's a big deal in football, Like not a lot of teams have that kind of ability. So that's why I think they keep coming in on this Raiders team. But Derek Carr, he's the reason that keeps getting let down. This guy is throwing picks in the fourth quarter, giving the ball up and turn into seven for their teams. So it's that's why, Like it's hard to say that I want to make this one of my bets, like four or five, but it feels like I had to bet this as a professional. This number is way too inflate. And I think it's just because it's a holiday game, Like they opened at seven outs up to eight eight and a half of some books. It's just the publics in a coming so heavy on this Cowboys team, and they are the public is coming in it's like sixty five thirty five. That makes sense, But again, they're two top weapons are out like they couldn't do anything against a bad Chiefs defense. Of course, I see the Dallas bouncing back here, but bouncing back being a team by more than double digits, I just don't see it with this team as they are right now. By the way, you mentioned the Lions are a team that when the public is backing him, you want to They're getting sixty percent of the bets right Just kind of it's all the drama going on the Bears team. I think everyone's just gonna be off of them. But I just think it's all noise. Like I get that he might have lost that locker room, he didn't lose any Dalton. Andy Dalton's playing for his career right now. So like, if you have a guy you're giving me Andy Dalton. I know he's terrible, but him versus Tim Boyle, I feel like that really skews that matchup towards the Bears. Even versus Jared Goff. Yeah, but Tim Boyle two picks Yet last week in a game, I think he threw the ball and he like sixteen times. The guy he's bad Andy Dalton, professional rifleman, Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints. I do want to throw to Matt Mitchell for a second. We have gotten requests in my DM that people like when Matt Mitchell has something to say. The Buffalo Bills are playing on Thanksgiving. It's Matt Mitchell's favorite team playing on his one hundred favorite holiday. If there was ever a holiday that matches a human more, I can't think of it. It's Matt Mitchell getting to bet and stuff his face with food and watch his favorite football team as foreign happening favorites against the New Orleans Saints. Matt Mitchell, please weigh in. The best part about this game is actually that the game kicks off after both children will be asleep Central Time, which is exhilarating for me, and also that this will be the first time ever in my life that I'll be in my own home on Thanksgiving. I don't have to any other responsibilities other than doing exactly as you outlined, eating that second dinner, that third dinner, eating the first layer of pies, working my way to the second tertiary pies, having my heart stomped on that last Bills game. Confidence has kind of been an all time low. I hate the short week. I hate that they're traveling. I hate that it feels like they're playing for their season already, which is a weird thing to say. Luckily, it's also the two year Endiverse three up Buffalo going down to Dallas and choking the Cowboys to death on Thanksgiving, and they kept showing that grizzled old fuck Jerry Jones looking like he wanted to jump out of the owner's box and end it all, which is a Thanksgiving memory that'll live in my heart forever. So not feeling that confident this Thanksgiving, but I wasn't feeling confident that you're either, So maybe my expectations, like my cholesterol will be on the rise come Thursday night, Simon, did we play the Saints plus five and a half year? This was not on a holiday. We would, This is Sunday. We would. But I told you on Thanksgiving, Chad, we bet with the public investantances, and that's the one of the times we do it right here. Give me the Bills. Love this all way up to six classic. This number will be way higher if the Bills had done what people thought they were going to against the Colts, but they didn't and I think everyone's feeling the same way Man Mitchell's doing right now. This team does not look good. They're on a short week, they have not done well against good defense, and Saints are a defense. But this is what you want when you want to bet this Bill's team indoors. That's when they kill these teams. You got Digs on turf, you got Sanders on turf. All their receivers performed better on turf. That's just the facts. They're a very very fast team. Literally that builds a built a perfect indoor team when they play all their games outdoors. It's bizarre, but that's what they've built. It's a very very fast team. I already reread a bunch of reports about the coaches talking about they're gonna get Josh Allen on the move, like they think the biggest issue this year is he's been too much stand on the pocket trying to pass instead of taking what the defense is given, on which he can take a ten yards. He should be taking those ten yards. I think we see a big adjustment here. We saw last week with Hurts against the Saints team they could not handle a running quarterback. I feel like, we see the exact same thing here with Josh Allen this week. So exactly what man Mitchell was saying a short week is the fear with everyone. I like it. It's just a quick turnaround, get that bad taste out of your mouth, go on the road with a team. It's really that's what you kind of want. You want them all together like they are for the holiday. A great team building moment for this Spills team. So this to me is a turning point in their season. If they don't win this, it really might be New England's defense to win this division to win this year. So this is a huge game for the Spills team. What I'm not buying from you is the whole Thanksgiving favorites thing. It's too small to sample size and there's no logic, do you know what I mean? I can't public favorites getting fifty seven percent of the bets are better twenty four and seven against the spread on Thanksgiving? Yeah, shut up, Nerd. Yeah, Well then fuck you because you're telling me that I should take the Bears and the Lions are all the Bears the favorite. Well let's keep digging the hole deeper, keep going. What else you got well, by the way, it's Thanksgiving. We all love each other, and like you have to make it so angry when when I challenge you, it's just hilarious. You think that's me being angry. You've never seen me angry. Chat. This is not You're not from signing. You're not signing the hope, You're just a human being. What was that stat again, it's really good public favorites. I'll twet all this stuff out because I'm stealing it all from Brandon, Brandon Andrew. By the way, fifty seven percent of the bets getting fifty percent of the bets from the public. They're twenty four and seven eights on Thanksgiving, so seventy seven percent. That's since two thousand and three, two thousand and five, sorry, two thousand and five. That's pretty good. Yeah, I mean that's what I mean. Like I've I've always I've noticed this over the years where you know, I love Paig taking public like home dogs, It's my favorite thing to do. It just did not work out for you a couple years ago. I've kind of adjusted to it where I kind of beef up these lines a little bit for these favorites, just because that's how the public's kind of better regardless, and it's worked out for me. So you know, I do think this this line will get up higher with the Bills. So if you get the four right now, I would definitely take that number. Well, look, we're taking the trend with the Bills, we're ignoring the trend with the Raiders, and we're doing whatever we want with the Bears Lions. So we're really only following the trend for one game. Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars. The Falcons basically, this is a pick. Everything's coming in on the Falcons right now. I've believe been banned. I mean, the financiers have got so many messages. We're like, please just don't even talk about the Jaguars anymore. I can't stand it anymore. It was terrible. Oh we'll pass. But of course I'm gonna be on a home dog. I'll be on the Jaguars. This is a corner TV game if there ever was one. Yeah, this is like one of those I might the tops. I'll put on as a grant. It's game except the other game. New York Jets at Houston Texans. The Jets are now three point underdogs and this is a pros Joe's game. The bets are coming in on the Jets. The money is coming in on the Texas. I'm shocked the bets are coming in on the Jets. I guess maybe people are thinking fade Houston after that win with Tennessee. But we talked all the time while we loved Houston, we loved Taylor, I mean, and he was great. Yeah, I'm so mad at myself for not betting his rushing touchdowns. He ran for two of them last week. He's He's just a difference maker. And that's why I tried to explain to my Bob, my boss Bob. It's like they really hated that bet because they just don't trust him as a quarterback. And I kept saying he's way better than people give him credit for it, like he just doesn't make the stupid plays. And I get he did in that Miami game. We talked that was just rust. He just looked rust and sloppy in that game, his first game back from the injury. So nothing changer. I love this number. I'm so happy it's a two and a half. That's great. The public will keep betting the Jets and hopefully it's Flacco, I would bet it now, but I would also wait the bet on decent. I don't need to make sure you know who the quarterback is because I do think they can make it a close game with these other quarterbacks besides Flacco. But just looking on paper, this number should before I have to take Houston in this matchup. When Bob says to you, we're not doing this big bet that you want to do, are you, like, do you say to him as your boss, fuck you, nerd, No, because he's not my friend. Okay, I'm mouth off to him in the sense that I just simply text back mistake when he when he told me not to play them. So that's how you kind of drive to drive the nail in there. All I know is that you just called me your friends friend, buddy, best friend forever. Yeah, it's all love, yeah true. Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots. Wow. Wow, Wow the Titans are It looks like six and a half point underdogs on the road. What happened here? That's insane. We we've been burned by the like. We can't we can't fade the Patriots until further date this. They're on our role They're just a covering machine. I think I've gone against them three out of four of the weeks. They've just been covering. So I had to throw the numbers out. Of course, the numbers. This is a great number to take. The Titans have to throw it out here. You really you can't go against this Patriots team Belichick. Not only does he have the defense playing at a crazy high level, the offensive scheme right now is just perfect matchup for this Tennessee team. They're gonna be able to run it against him. The Tennessee Titans are terrible against play action. That's what New England loves to do with mac Jones. So yeah, I would love to take Tennessee on the road here, but it's just not when the dog's gonna be taken this week, I'll probably end up on the Patriots. Wowzer, Mac Jones a witch nipple quarterback, So there is to it. Do you think his brother is going to say to him on Thanksgiving? Like we instructed him too? Hey Mac, what's up? Mac Nipple? Yeah, he's got it. Feel like that's a little bit of a trap here. I know what you're saying. Oh I hate it. I want to take Titans so bad. But I've had to up the numbers on New England. Like I said it last week, if they won that game against Atlanta, I would move them way up in my power ratings to be like a top two, top three team in the AFC. And that's what they are. Like that dominated both sides of the ball. Of course, Mac looked like a rookie. You threw a pick and like, that's what we're expecting. But the rest of the team so complete it didn't even matter. They're just a dominant team right now, every fiber of my being is saying take the Titans here, that's fair. I mean again, if it comes Sunday, we'll see, but as we sit here on Tuesday, I would recommend taking anyone. The wise guy play is the Titans. The wise guy number is the Titans. It's at a dead number though it's at five and a half or five, Like if it got to six and a half, i'd agree with you. But there just isn't any really real value in the five and a half number. I'm seeing six and a half. I do see a six and a half out there, so like if I hit six and a half, I would have to pull the trigger on that, but I don't feel good about it. I just want I just want it known that I'm convincing you. You are because I had this number three and a half and like, I want to take the Titans. It's inflated to the max, but I just cannot do it. Wow, no courage. Maybe for Thanksgiving you should ask for courage. Simon Hunter, professional coward. The Eagles. Your Eagles looked strong against the Saints. Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants. Every time the Saints started to get closer in that game, the Eagles answered against a Giants team just fired Jason Garrett. That is just coming across the wire. Really looked pathetic on offense. Only scored last night a touchdown when they had an interset they were set up inside the five yard line. The line is Giants plus four. Oh god, I mean, I love the Giants. It's crazy divisional game. You have to take it though. This is such a pro number, the same reason we took the Vikings last week. Unfortunately, we didn't get the Vikings out of three, which would have been great because at the end of that game, you're like, all right, this is either team's gonna win this game. By field goal. But here you're getting a gift for the Giants. It's up to four. Now it's gonna be three and a half. A lot of books you bet this number. You gotta bet this number every time the Eagles are good. They're not that good. They were I think just two weeks ago this this line was minus three Giants. Now it's flipped seven points. So take the value they're giving you in these sports books, and it is a pros Joe's game. Majority of the money on the Giants, majority of the bets. Let's talk the Eagles. Let should be our foxhol foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole and not a lot of want of people aren't get in. There's gonna be a lot of a lot of bullets flying over top of us here. This is this is one of the uglier bets were making this week. Listen, you don't win, You don't become the best betters in the country over a two week period by making the popular decision. That's true. Being a leader, being in the foxel means doing what's right, not doing what's popular. And we're not gonna get anyone. We've been on a roll here, these double digit dogs money lines. No double digit dogs this week, all under ten points, So it's sadly it's gonna end our streak. But hey, it was a great two. We still have a Signmon says, and we still got to do scooch Roulette. Don't forget our big balls. Was the pairs, our foxhole, I mean, was the Giants. And now a quick word from our friends at FanDuel. This Thanksgiving, FanDuel sports Book is thankful for you. That's why they're giving all customers up to a hundred dollars bonus on same game parlays. Feast on the NFL all weekend long, and turn little bets into big paydays with same game parlays. On Thursday, I'm considering a Thanksgiving Day same game parlay of the Dallas Cowboys minus the points, the under, and Zeke Elliott rushing yards over. I love betting with FanDuel Sports Book because it's safe, easy to use, and when I win, I get paid out in as little as two hours. So log on to FanDuel sports Book app and unlock your same game parlay bonus today. Plus, if it's your first time betting with FanDuel, you can also enjoy a risk freebet of up to a thousand dollars when you sign up with Promo Code Favorites. 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Let's get back to the show any well. Tampa Bay Buccaneers fresh off of win, Indianapolis Colts fresh off of a win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts feels like a Colts number to me, two and a half, three points, number one Colts fan. It's easy, of course, I bet this. I think people are tweeting on me before they even put the line up. They're like, are you gonna be the Colts to get against the Bucks? Of course? I mean that team against the Bill is exactly what I envisioned coming in this season. What I would see from this Colds team. Just an incredibly dominant offensive line with the best running back in football, Carson Wentz just not screwing him over. Like again, you saw in that game when those third and seven thirty eight, he was making those plays, and that's what you want from Carson, Like, that's what makes him different than guys like Sam Darnold who cannot make that play consistent. Links That's what I love about Carson. He's healthy right now, that old lion's healthy. The Bucks team didn't look that healthy honestly against that Giants team. They had a bunch of little things happening in that game where you're just like, it's still not right now, it's getting there. Like they had drunk back. They were running the ball against that Giants team, but without all those turnovers from I mean Daniel Jones, like that was just a complete meltdown game from him. They were going to be in that game that whole time. The Giants, it felt like they were really going to be in that game. So I We've talked about all season, we've just been betting against Brady on the road. It's yet to fail us. It's literally it's worked out every time we've done it. I mean, the Saints, no one thinks they're a good team. We bet them on the number and on the money line. They beat them out right. Washington football team, people don't think they're a good team. They beat them out right. People do think the Colts are a good team. So how can we now take this number with this cold team plus three? That's just it could be a little bit of a sharp trap, but I'm going to walk into it. I think we're getting a great number here with this sharp prep. We got a sharp crap, everybody, We're getting some games here that we like, we really are. I think, I think come Sunday, we're already looking at the Texans, We're looking at the Giants, We're looking at the Colts. It's going to be my favorite bets coming up. Who is it going to be? Simon says, is it the So listen, I'm feeling really good about myself. Here's why. Discipline, discipline, and instinct. The Steelers are visiting the Bengals. The Steelers are four and a half point dogs on the road. Two nights ago was Sunday night. The Steelers were six point dogs to the Chargers. Right before the game, I fired away on the Steelers at plus six, went to bed chaos and sued they won. Obviously it was the right side or they lost. But they covered obviously the right side. Last night, last night, I was very tempted to bet the over didn't do it, Very tempted to bet the Giants didn't do it, very tempted to bet Cadarius Tony over forty one passing receiving yards didn't do it. He landed at forty. So I wake up today because I'm the best better in the world. You're not even a part of the conversation anymore, and I've expanded it beyond the country to the world. I feel like I'm in the right place. You're seeing the board, well, that's what it is. I'm seeing the board, seeing the whole board, and I look at this and I see Steelers plus four and a half Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals. Simon says, actually, I actually like the Bengals, but oh no, yeah, no, I know, but I'm gonna end up on the Steelers. I just thought it was a fishy line. I didn't get why it was so high up. I made this line three, so my instincts right away where to pound the Steelers. I don't get why the books hung this so high. Did be like the Colts game where if they just hung a bad number and you're a dead rolling like the Pittsburgh has been by far the play here. I'm waiting because I don't really get the Nuber. It kind of feels like the Seahawks Lass week, Like I didn't understand why the ox Ford plus two I stayed away from that one that went that game stunk of a trap. That's how I feel about this game here. It's um it feels too easy. Pittsburgh's defense. They would dominate this Bengal's offense in my opinion, like that if they have t J wat back that front, that front seven against this really bad Bengal's offensive line, that's that's a great matchup for this Pittsburgh team. But it's it's just a fishy line. So we'll talk later in the week about this one. I'm seeing it down to three and a half at some books, so obviously the pros of coming on this number, but it just seems often to me. I don't get why the signed didn't open at three fishy. What do you have a power rated at right now? I had at three, so like that's what I assume the books would just open at that and just let the public betted up or down, let them decide. Instead, they opened it heavy. Pittsburgh. Money has come flying in on Pittsburgh. I bet the Ticke accounts coming on Pittsburgh, just because that's my first instant. Soon as I saw that number, I thought, Wow, that's that's way too high. So that's one of those I bet it. I just didn't. I'm not gonna you know, I might have put two grain on it, right now. I might more later in the week, but right now I'm just holding off because I don't really trust this number. Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins. The Panthers are one and a half point favorites. Don't say anything yet. I'm going to tell you right now, how we not been in the Dolphins here? Really? Well, I'm shock they're gonna come on the Panthers. I like the Panthers. You're coming off a loss, playing on Miami team that's won two in a row. Now they're feeling good. That was I mean, I watched that game because for some reason, I bet a bunch of money on Miami. I just hate Joe Flacco that much. I guess man, Miami's got issues. Their defense is getting a little better. But against this Carolina team, I love that that running style against the defense that you know they give up the run Miami, That's that's when I think they're not good against. So it's I'm leaning towards Carolina. But men, you are split on this, we'll probably just stay away from It's not one of my favorite five anyway, But to me, it's just I would like to fade this Miami team after a couple of big wins, because again, I just it's hard for me to really believe in this Miami team. Two, it just hasn't put it together enough games consistently where I'm like, Okay, I really believe in what I've seen. This guy get a couple really bad turnovers against that Jets team, So to me, this is a I would either take CareLine or just stay away. Interesting. I looked at this and thought, and I saw to his numbers, and I saw a little bit of the game, and I felt like he's starting to make better throws. It's not just a Dincon duck kind of thing he's throwing for He's completing a high percentage of his passes, and this defense is pretty good, and like Kim was terrible, like completely ineffective. So it just felt like I'm getting the home team as a underdog here. You're right, and the trends favor what you're saying too, Like Flores has been really good against the spread at home as a home dog. But just like last night with Tampa, sometimes you got a zig and zag against these trends. And I saw the stats Tom Brady O five against the Giants, Tom Brady oh and seven and primetime. Eventually it always comes back around. So this is when these where I do think they drop one here against Carolina, team that really needs this one, all right, A classic Don Crickey, Todd Christiansen Late afternoon NBC Games, Shout out to the children of the eighties who know exactly what I'm talking about. Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos. Chargers two and a half point favorites. Simon says, bet the Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos, tell me why you know why we love Teddy. Teddy is a dog. Teddy is what it was a nineteen and three against the spread as a dog in his last twenty two something crazy like that. Just anytime Teddy's dog, we bet it even better. Here we're getting great matchups. You have a Denver team that wants to run the ball. They have a two headed monster against a Chargers team that cannot stop the run. They are just so bad against the run. Their secondary still has a couple of issues where you know, say what you want about Teddy. He can't get the ball downfield. They have a lot of speedy weapons on that team. He can get it really, really really out of his hands. Fast, where like Bosa, all this pressure coming from the Chargers shouldn't matter. So a divisional game home doog in Denver? Love it? Love the plus three And the reason I'm saying sim says, I think pros are gonna bet this down. I could see this game closing as a pick. This is gonna be on the Sharper bet games for professionals this week. So I love Denver in this position. I'm totally with you. A lot of times you look at the board and you try to think about what the sharp games are going to be and for whatever reason, like the Broncos are never one of those teams that pops up. You know, if you were looking at this board, I think people would be more likely to say that the Colts are going to be sharp, or the Giants are potentially going to be sharp, or even the Steelers are going to be sharp. But I agree with you, like everyone's gonna look at this and look at the Broncos and think this is the side. Yeah. Especially it jumped out too where it was like I feel like it was Sunday there and maybe it was like Monday morning at two am, just like multiple different people reaching out to me be like you already hit the Broncos line and it's just like, Okay, that's that's the play this week. So that was one of those where I bet it early. Hasn't really moved much, which has made me a little nervous because I thought for sure they'd bump it down because again, we talk all the time the books, they like traps all the time, and this looks like one of those games. At they're gonna get a lot of money coming in on the Chargers and they're gonna keep it at that three or maybe even drop it out two and a half. Those are kind of the signals you're looking forward. It's like, Okay, we're deafin on the right side here with this Chargers team Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco forty nine Ers. This seems to me to be a perfectly lined game with the Niners. They are right now three point favorites, seem no edge here in either direction. Yeah, I want to take the Vikings, but I feel like I feel like I'm playing with fire here. I've just backed them so many weeks in a row. Now it's probably time to get off the train. Like this is their peak, highest level of and the value is it's not terrible value though, Like looking at a plus three, it's that's a good that's number. You one, you rather have the plus three than the minus three. But I'm with you. It's just a it's a good line. That's what I made it. I think I made it two and a half, or maybe I did make it too, but I just there's not enough of a Yeah, like you just said, these teams are pretty pretty equal the line. There's not that much value on taking the three. So I would probably pass on this one. If it got to three and a half, I would take the Vikings at three and a half, I would like that. Yeah, that'd be really nice. But at three, it doesn't feel like there's that much value. This is why we're missing the Thursday Pie this week. Why it's a bummer. This is a game that would move and it's a game we would talk about, and especially this week, all these short lines, like all these threes, I can't remember a week, especially this season, we've seen so many home dogs at three, or so many home favorites at minus three. It's it's a very low low number week. Yeah, it's strange. It's really strange. Speaking of low, low number week Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers. Let's say the Rams are one point dogs. Let's say that you're BF Chatty kind of likes the Rams here, you really, I don't. I'm still something's just wrong there. Like Stafford hasn't played well in two weeks. I would love for this to be a get right spot for him, but he just in his career, even on the lines, he never played well at Lambo. There's just something about an indoor quarterback going outside. Already have question marks with Matthew Stafford. The only thing going on your favor right now is to me, is this COVID toe or whatever Aaron Rodgers dealing with, which, again, that's a real thing. People supposedly have gotten this covid toe and it's like turf toe but way worse, and he's really dealing with it. But last week he looked pretty damn good. So I'll wait and see what the injury report is for this. We'll see if Aaron Jones is back, We'll see if Alexander's back for the secondary with Green Bay. But yeah, usually a West Coast team going outdoors up to frozen Lambeau. If this is under three, every time I'll take Green Bay, so I'll wait and see what the number is. I don't think it's gonna get up to that point. So no matter what, I think you're gonna able to get good value on the screen Bay team. That was COVID too. Apparently it's a real thing. That's what Aaron Rodgers apparently has this COVID toe. But you know what, I could be fooled by the internet once again. But I heard it on Howard Stern, so I trusted. Oh, come on, have I told you that? You know that I've written seven books. Four of them are best sellers. Chad Melman wrote a book, and one of those best sellers is They Call Me Baba Booie, which I co authored with Gary Delabate. I was the ghost writer for Gary Delabat's autobiography. He's the only guy on that show I think I hate. I hate Gary. Dude, you can't hate Gary I do. He's such a tool. No, you know you think Aaron Rodgers is a tool. I think that guy Gary is a giant tool. He is. You spend five minutes with the guy. He is the nicest, most sincere, most authentic, Like just in thirty five years of working on the Howard Stern Show. He is as sort of open to possibility and excited about making connections as he was when he was twenty four years old and had a passion for radio and like listening to a Stern while he was a producer at NBC, Like there's nothing His wife is lovely, Like he's just a wonderful guy. There's nothing not to like about him. I bet he is. I'm just like I listened to Stern for assholes, like I used to love already back in the day, beetle juice, Like I know all that stuff's terrible nowadays. That was where my glory is, like the late nineties, early two thousands. That's why I just love Stern. So it's nothing against him. I just like assholes. That's why I listen to that show. Interesting says so much about you. Let's talk about Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are what does it look like three and a half point favorites right now? Yeah, it sounds about it right Just on the record show my favorite shows always, Sonny, those are the biggest assoles in the world. Chat So people know the love that show. They know I love assholes, Um, what are we doing? Always the Always Sunny Boys right now talk about podcasts. The Always Sunny Boys released a podcast, the First for the first time, like three weeks ago. It is now beating Joe Rogan as the most downloaded podcast on Spotify. Have you listened to it yet? No? I haven't listened to it. It's amazing, Like the first episode, Charlie Days complaining about eating too much cheese and feeling sick like, it's just hilarious. And he's not even doing a character. That's who he is. It's so good. It's such a good show. Let's get a pep talk for Frank Reynolds. This is pathetic, this is awful. We've all been humiliated, our asses are destroyed. Yeah, book, if life pushes you down, you gotta push back. If you're dumped a bunch of womens, you gotta take those limits and stuff them down. Somebody's throw until I see yelling. You gotta do the only thing that's left to do. Yeah, what is it? Well, day's the Lemons stuff fright? And then my train of thought, let's go back to the bar. I have no idea what to make of this. Browns Ravens matchup. Like, my first thing I want to do is take the Browns of plus four because both these teams have major injuries. We don't know what's going on with Lamar, Like in the history of quarterbacks, is a quarterback ever gotten sick more often Lamar? Like, I can't remember him missing other games being sick, not GOVID related, Like he just gets sick, So no clue, Like if you really had the flu and he's been that bad that he was out all week and he missed the game this week. Until I see him on the practice field, I am not putting any dime onto this Ravens team. But if if it comes Sunday and he's playing and this number is still at four, I will take the Ravens. Baker, he just does not look right like he had. He looked our X start that game, and he had one hit from that Detroit Lion defense. The rest of the game, he was just off, could not complete throw. So I think Colin Coward talked about it, he's cost himself a lot of money, Baker, and I agree with him. He's he's cost himself a lot of money trying to play through this injury. The last couple of weeks, so I'm off of it. I'm I'll stay away from this game until I know more info. Would you say that Lamar Jackson, because of his illnesses, is the Charlie Day of NFL quarterbacks? No, can't can't put him, that can put him that low. I often get texts from people sending me a picture of Glenn Howarton saying that we look alike. No, I actually see a little bit. Yeah, like when you're closed mouth like that, you actually do look like them. Yeah, all right, all right, Monday night football kind of a stinker of a game, Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team. Basically even maybe the Seahawks are one point favorites. Tell me, I don't have a strong opinion here. Yeah, it's it's the same thing. I like again, Chad must, I must get all the dms. I remember, Chad. People are reach out, We're saying, how did Chad bet against his best friend Colton McCoy, How could he take the Seahawks? And I told them, Sometimes Chad gets caught up in the moment, he gets excited, he sees the number and he just takes it. Colore is your guy, and you went against him. I can't believe that. But I don't know what to make of the Seahawks. We talked to that last week. I just don't trust Russ. I've had plenty of guys reach out to me that talk to people inside the Seahawks organization. He's missing. He's missing guys nonstopping. We saw it again in the game. He just has this wobbly ball right now and it's nose diving on him. He keeps putting it into the ground a guy's feet. Russ does not do that. Russ does not ever kind of do those kind of throws. He's one of the most accurate pastors in the football, So he ain't He's not right. He just isn't. So I'll take Washington. I hate backing them. They're off back to back really big wins, like that win against Tampa was huge. Now they won again against Carolina coming home. I would love to be able to fade this Washington team and take a Seahawks team that's lost was it three straight. I can't do it, though. I just can't trust Russ right now to pick up first down. So I'm gonna go with Heineke. I'll back this Washington team. But this won't be one of our five. I love watching this Washington team. They're so fun. Taylor Heineke is just great to watch. Yeah, there was a few weeks ago there was a story about Taylor Heineke and having a conversation with the coaches and saying that he felt tight, that he wasn't playing his game, that he wasn't playing loose. And since then he's just been a different quarterback. Now meet him, go to the same shrink. We both worked it out. Chat. We're letting him fly him out. You know, I fucking love that, huge fan of mental health. There we go. All right, so let's narrow this down here. We definitely come Sunday. We're going to talk about the Broncos. We're going to talk about the Texans at minus two and a half. We're going to talk about the Giants at plus four. Maybe we'll keep that one out. We're gonna talk the Colts a plus two and a half. It's for a few we might talk about the Steelers. We might talk about the Washington football team, even though they say you don't want to. We'll see what happens with the Packers. Got a lot of options here, are you ready for scoot for roulette. We're the best betters in the world right now, so it feels to me like, no matter what we do, we're probably going to go four and one or five, and now it sounds about right. Don't believe in jinxes. I don't believe in not being able to say stuff out loud. What I believe in is that if you want something, you have to say it out loud. You gotta vision it, you gotta see it before you or what is it? Chadi for got the same. You gotta see it to believe it. Time to take down the hops. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scots Rolette, all right, So then I get to keep winning. I get to go first again because it all rolls over and I'm the best better in the world and for that reason alone. Give me the Denver broncos Fuck, I knew you're gonna do that plus two and a half against the Chadges any covers baby a Denver broncos Um. All right, I'll go Giants against my Eagles. It's like this is a great spot for them getting three and a half or four, So that's a good number. To take with this Giant's team. All right, Teddy covers. Should we do the Bronchos plus you got the I got the Broncos two and a half? You got the Giants plus four. We'll do it. We'll do the money line, money line round robin, just because people love it. It's been cashing for him. Yep. Now this is this is gonna be as good as it was the last couple of weeks, obviously, because we got a bunch of short home dogs. So let's start off with a very tasty Giants at home. Then we'll go with the Colts at home, go to the Broncos at home. I'll take Minnesota on the road because, like we just said, that seems like a coin flip kind of game. Like I really want to put Pittsburgh in there. Should we just do that? Yeah? All right, that's that's a good five. Yep, all right, we kind of nailed. It's a Tuesday's show. We're giving a lot of We're giving people a lot to wait for it. Chew on over to the Thanksgiving holiday. I must stay have your ass? What this fuck? Do you hear me? I want to wish everybody a great Thanksgiving. We're thankful for our listeners, both old and new. We're thankful for the comments, We're thankful for the feedback, and Simon the last thing we got to talk about. We did have one comment with Meet You and Matt debated the other day. Someone DMed me and said, I sound like an idiot when I say love you at the end of the podcast, and I'm too old for that now and I shouldn't say it anymore. And I kind of agreed that it. I've been feeling weird saying it the past couple of weeks. I don't know why. And then you and Matt Mitchell came in strong that it absolutely has to remain as the tagline. Yeah, I feel like that's been your tagline for forever. I mean, how long? How long did you start this this podcast? Exactly? We relaunched the Favorites September of twenty eighteen. Like I'm talking, when did you start way before that? Oh well, I launched behind the Bets at ESPN in like twenty ten. I might have stumbled upon your show maybe then or twenty eleven, and even then you said love you. I know exactly when I said it. I started saying it in twenty eighteen with the Favorites because Matt Ford, who was a producer on the show, producer with the company called Blue Duck that we do a lot of work with their fantastic production company. He was working on the show. He ended a show one time as a guest host and he said love you. I just thought it was cute and so I picked it up. So it's a thing. You stole a tagline, damn it. Matt Mitchell felt like a guy emails you and goes, hey, Chad, it'll be fine with you forgubt where you came from. And you said, ah, good point. That's a good point. I should do that. So I didn't. I didn't care for that attitude. Well, the love you thing, that might be the only time someone in the whole day we'll hear someone say to them love you. So right, I feel like that's why I should leave it in. You know, it's nice to hear every once in a while. You know what. We did it, We debated it. We're gonna stick with it. If people have something better, then they can they can send it in. Our dms are open. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I Am Chad Noman. He is Simon Hunter. We are thankful for all of you. Download the podcast at Apple podcast that Spotify make us number one on Spotify. We can catch the always sunny guys. I love those guys until next week. Love you. You're Valentine's Day shouldn't start with a Hail Mary. We've got you covered on the big day. 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