Hilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Benito Mussolini, Poulpott, Saddam Hussein. Apart from being some of the most famous dictators in human history, they all have one thing in common. They all had dramatic, violent, and disgraced downfalls, but in almost every case foreign powers played a major role in shaping the post dictatorship future. How Tyrants Fall and How Nations Survive by political scientist Marcel Dursis delves into the vulnerabilities of these kinds of regimes and explores strategies for their dismantling. Dursas was recently in New Zealand for the Auckland Writers' Festival and joined The Front Page while here to discuss tyrants and whether we've learned anything at all from the world's darkest rulers. Marcelle. The book opens with this line, the most powerful tyrants on earth are condemned to live their life in fear. Can you elaborate on this for me? Yeah?

Hilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Benito Mussolini, Poulpott, Saddam Hussein. Apart from being some of the most famous dictators in human history, they all have one thing in common. They all had dramatic, violent, and disgraced downfalls, but in almost every case foreign powers played a major role in shaping the post dictatorship future. How Tyrants Fall and How Nations Survive by political scientist Marcel Dursis delves into the vulnerabilities of these kinds of regimes and explores strategies for their dismantling. Dursas was recently in New Zealand for the Auckland Writers' Festival and joined The Front Page while here to discuss tyrants and whether we've learned anything at all from the world's darkest rulers. Marcelle. The book opens with this line, the most powerful tyrants on earth are condemned to live their life in fear. Can you elaborate on this for me? Yeah?

I think in our democracies there's this idea that these leaders are all powerful, and that they can do whatever they want whenever they want it, and that in some ways it can be quite a fabulous existence, but reality is far from that. So one of the big problems that these leaders have is that when they lose power, oftentimes they also lose their freedom or their life. So when political scientists looked at the statistics for this, they found that over two thirds of personalist dictators ended up imprisoned, in forced exile, or dead after losing power.

I think in our democracies there's this idea that these leaders are all powerful, and that they can do whatever they want whenever they want it, and that in some ways it can be quite a fabulous existence, but reality is far from that. So one of the big problems that these leaders have is that when they lose power, oftentimes they also lose their freedom or their life. So when political scientists looked at the statistics for this, they found that over two thirds of personalist dictators ended up imprisoned, in forced exile, or dead after losing power.

What are the key components of a dictator?

What are the key components of a dictator?

Yeah, I mean so I deliberately talked about tyrants in the book because I wanted to look at a broad selection of leaders. So I wanted to look at your military dictatorships, one party dictatorships, king's theocrats. And the way that I think about it is the amount of people that you need in order to maintain power. So in a functioning democracy like New Zealand, where you are free elections, you need millions of people because you need to win those elections. But if you're somebody like Vladimir Putin or you're Kim Jong un, you just need a tiny share of the population to hold that power. And usually these are your advisors. These are generals or intelligence officials. So what I'm interested in are those types of political systems where you just need a tiny share of the population because that changes everything.

Yeah, I mean so I deliberately talked about tyrants in the book because I wanted to look at a broad selection of leaders. So I wanted to look at your military dictatorships, one party dictatorships, king's theocrats. And the way that I think about it is the amount of people that you need in order to maintain power. So in a functioning democracy like New Zealand, where you are free elections, you need millions of people because you need to win those elections. But if you're somebody like Vladimir Putin or you're Kim Jong un, you just need a tiny share of the population to hold that power. And usually these are your advisors. These are generals or intelligence officials. So what I'm interested in are those types of political systems where you just need a tiny share of the population because that changes everything.

And what are some of the personality traits of a tyrant? I mean, you're probably got to have a pretty good reckoning of yourself. Yeah.

And what are some of the personality traits of a tyrant? I mean, you're probably got to have a pretty good reckoning of yourself. Yeah.

These people are deeply, deeply weird, you know, and they would do a terrible job if they had an ordinary work to do, right, So if they set in an office environment or in a cubicle, they'd be terrible added, But they are in a way rational, and they're oftentimes very good at what they do. So within the system in which they operate, it's a good thing if you're a narcissist. It's a good thing if you have no empathy for others, because you need to horrific violence on people all of the time. And perhaps you have a normal conversation with them, smiling at them, and in the evening you order their death. So these people are not normal in any sense of the world, but they are often quite suited for that particular role.

These people are deeply, deeply weird, you know, and they would do a terrible job if they had an ordinary work to do, right, So if they set in an office environment or in a cubicle, they'd be terrible added, But they are in a way rational, and they're oftentimes very good at what they do. So within the system in which they operate, it's a good thing if you're a narcissist. It's a good thing if you have no empathy for others, because you need to horrific violence on people all of the time. And perhaps you have a normal conversation with them, smiling at them, and in the evening you order their death. So these people are not normal in any sense of the world, but they are often quite suited for that particular role.

Are there any warning signs that a populist politician is becoming an authoritarian leader? Yeah?

Are there any warning signs that a populist politician is becoming an authoritarian leader? Yeah?

I mean the first thing is intent, so you know, you're sort of boring, run of the middle. Politicians usually don't want to be dictators. You know, I don't know what it's like in New Zealand, but you know our Chancellor is a boring centrist. I really don't think he wants to be a dictator. So the first question is do they want it? And then from there on out it gets a little bit more difficult because there's really not a one way in which people dismantle democracy. But if I look at some of the struggling democracies right now, you know there are things that are particularly alarming. So one of them is the justice system, because if you can ignore judges or you can replace them with your own, democracy is going to struggle immediately. But even more importantly is what happens to the security forces, because a court judgment is no good if you can't implement it, and whether a court judgment gets implemented or not ultimately depends on the men and women with guns. So if you can ignore them, or if you can find a way to capture the military or the security services, then democracy will almost inevitably die.

I mean the first thing is intent, so you know, you're sort of boring, run of the middle. Politicians usually don't want to be dictators. You know, I don't know what it's like in New Zealand, but you know our Chancellor is a boring centrist. I really don't think he wants to be a dictator. So the first question is do they want it? And then from there on out it gets a little bit more difficult because there's really not a one way in which people dismantle democracy. But if I look at some of the struggling democracies right now, you know there are things that are particularly alarming. So one of them is the justice system, because if you can ignore judges or you can replace them with your own, democracy is going to struggle immediately. But even more importantly is what happens to the security forces, because a court judgment is no good if you can't implement it, and whether a court judgment gets implemented or not ultimately depends on the men and women with guns. So if you can ignore them, or if you can find a way to capture the military or the security services, then democracy will almost inevitably die.

Your book is a bit of a positive in some ways because it shows that a lot of tyrants are susceptible to a downfall. What makes them so prone to this kind of failure.

Your book is a bit of a positive in some ways because it shows that a lot of tyrants are susceptible to a downfall. What makes them so prone to this kind of failure.

Yeah, So one of the things that dictators often struggle with is something called a dictator's dilemma. So they don't ever actually know who's genuinely loyal and who's just pretending to be. Because if you advise that dictator and he says, listen, I have a great idea, you're not going to say it's a bad idea because you don't want to go to a gulag or die, so you're going to lie. And over time, what happens is that these leaders are constantly being lied to every day for multiple years, and gradually they just detach from reality and they no longer understand what is happening in their own country, let alone in a different one. And this is something that invites catastrophic mistakes, and that's part of the reason why they're so prone to falling right.

Yeah, So one of the things that dictators often struggle with is something called a dictator's dilemma. So they don't ever actually know who's genuinely loyal and who's just pretending to be. Because if you advise that dictator and he says, listen, I have a great idea, you're not going to say it's a bad idea because you don't want to go to a gulag or die, so you're going to lie. And over time, what happens is that these leaders are constantly being lied to every day for multiple years, and gradually they just detach from reality and they no longer understand what is happening in their own country, let alone in a different one. And this is something that invites catastrophic mistakes, and that's part of the reason why they're so prone to falling right.

And they're just encapsulated by that bubble of yes people.

And they're just encapsulated by that bubble of yes people.

Yeah, and also, you know, the thing to remember is that, I mean, some of these people have grown up in it. So Kim Jong Lunn, for example, started carrying a pistol. When he was a child, you know, he would where the sort of make believe uniform, and when he saw an actual general, that real general, an adult would salute him.

Yeah, and also, you know, the thing to remember is that, I mean, some of these people have grown up in it. So Kim Jong Lunn, for example, started carrying a pistol. When he was a child, you know, he would where the sort of make believe uniform, and when he saw an actual general, that real general, an adult would salute him.

You know.

You know.

He liked to play with these little toy ships, and if he had a problem with one of his toy ships at night, he would summon a nautical engineer, and that nautical engineer would have no choice but to go and help him. Right, So it is no surprise that people like that are totally broken and aren't able to make good decisions.

He liked to play with these little toy ships, and if he had a problem with one of his toy ships at night, he would summon a nautical engineer, and that nautical engineer would have no choice but to go and help him. Right, So it is no surprise that people like that are totally broken and aren't able to make good decisions.

Do dictators love Trump? That's unclear. Dictators are transactional. They use each other. If dictators are loving Trump at the moment is because they think that he can be an ally, that they can get something from him. If we take as the example Vladimir Putin, he and Trump have a good relationship, and yet he allows Trump to be marked on Russian television as a useful fool.

Do dictators love Trump? That's unclear. Dictators are transactional. They use each other. If dictators are loving Trump at the moment is because they think that he can be an ally, that they can get something from him. If we take as the example Vladimir Putin, he and Trump have a good relationship, and yet he allows Trump to be marked on Russian television as a useful fool.

How long do these leaders reign for usually, and how do people go about toppling one of these regimes? Because some of them are quite short, so a few years, but some of them last for decades.

How long do these leaders reign for usually, and how do people go about toppling one of these regimes? Because some of them are quite short, so a few years, but some of them last for decades.

Some of these people are extremely good at making the kind of trade offs that they need to make in order to maintain power. But one of the huge weaknesses that these systems have is succession. So again, if you take a functioning democracy like New Zealand or Germany or the UK, you get one leader gets voted out and then you know, a couple of days later, the next one walks right back in. And if there's some sort of dispute, we have institutions to deal with it. We have courts, we have an electoral commission, we have independent journalism toward people accountable. But in these systems, what the dictators tend to do is to either destroy all of those institutions or try to capture them. So when the dictator is no longer around for some reason, the whole thing often goes up in flames, because all of a sudden, then that dispute turns from the shooting in the streets. So the length can vary quite a lot. And when it comes to the best ways to toppling these leaders, you know, just as dictators are forced to make trade offs in order to maintain power, we have to make tradeoffs in trying to deal with them. And a large question is, you know, how much risk are we actually willing to assume, because of course, you know, when democratic leaders go on TV, they say, oh, this is all about democracy promotion. You know, we just want to you know, bring our values into the world. But obviously that's not how it actually works in reality. You know, states have all kinds of interests. Some of them might be related to democracy, but many are not.

Some of these people are extremely good at making the kind of trade offs that they need to make in order to maintain power. But one of the huge weaknesses that these systems have is succession. So again, if you take a functioning democracy like New Zealand or Germany or the UK, you get one leader gets voted out and then you know, a couple of days later, the next one walks right back in. And if there's some sort of dispute, we have institutions to deal with it. We have courts, we have an electoral commission, we have independent journalism toward people accountable. But in these systems, what the dictators tend to do is to either destroy all of those institutions or try to capture them. So when the dictator is no longer around for some reason, the whole thing often goes up in flames, because all of a sudden, then that dispute turns from the shooting in the streets. So the length can vary quite a lot. And when it comes to the best ways to toppling these leaders, you know, just as dictators are forced to make trade offs in order to maintain power, we have to make tradeoffs in trying to deal with them. And a large question is, you know, how much risk are we actually willing to assume, because of course, you know, when democratic leaders go on TV, they say, oh, this is all about democracy promotion. You know, we just want to you know, bring our values into the world. But obviously that's not how it actually works in reality. You know, states have all kinds of interests. Some of them might be related to democracy, but many are not.

Are there any kind of common weaknesses or blind spots between these regimes that other countries are able to take advantage of in order to limit their impact on the rest of the world.

Are there any kind of common weaknesses or blind spots between these regimes that other countries are able to take advantage of in order to limit their impact on the rest of the world.

Yeah, I think one of the things that is comparatively easy and comparatively low risk is looking at the ways in which these regimes try to use our own system against us. So you know, in Europe, for example, there's barely a football club inside that isn't owned by some oligarch or you know, royal family in one way or another. You know, China is buying up ports. You know, there are all kinds of critical infrastructure investments that these regimes are making, and we let it go on in essence because we're greedy. You know, We've got hordes of accountants and bankers and lawyers that are making money of this, and this is something that we could change if we wanted to, and it would make life a lot more difficult for these types of leaders.

Yeah, I think one of the things that is comparatively easy and comparatively low risk is looking at the ways in which these regimes try to use our own system against us. So you know, in Europe, for example, there's barely a football club inside that isn't owned by some oligarch or you know, royal family in one way or another. You know, China is buying up ports. You know, there are all kinds of critical infrastructure investments that these regimes are making, and we let it go on in essence because we're greedy. You know, We've got hordes of accountants and bankers and lawyers that are making money of this, and this is something that we could change if we wanted to, and it would make life a lot more difficult for these types of leaders.

If there's huge power in something like nonviolent protest, for example, in regimes where dissent is met with extreme violence, what options do civilians realistically have.

If there's huge power in something like nonviolent protest, for example, in regimes where dissent is met with extreme violence, what options do civilians realistically have.

Yeah, So interestingly, nonviolent protests can be incredibly effective even in regimes in which violence is used regularly, And in a way, that's a fascinating topic because you know, you look at these pensioners, you look at these teenagers, and these just unarmed people marching in the streets, and oftentimes they can bring down even entrenched dictatorships, and you think, well, how is that possible? And the way that it works is that if there are too many people in the streets, dictators have to respond because they cannot afford to look weak, so they use violence. But when you club down women and children or pensioners, oftentimes the next day you have even more people in the streets, and then you're forced into something that in German we call a choice between the plague and cholera. So there are no more good options for the dictator, because if that dictator orders the use of lethal force, somebody actually has to do the firing, and oftentimes it is exactly at that moment when the opposition looks the weakest and the regime looks the strongest, that the security forces refuse because they don't want to kill their neighbors, they don't want to kill their own people. And when that happens, the dictators lose control, or alternatively, palace leites might refuse to go along with it. So if you can bring out enough people into the streets, you can almost get these regimes to collapse under the weight of their own repression.

Yeah, So interestingly, nonviolent protests can be incredibly effective even in regimes in which violence is used regularly, And in a way, that's a fascinating topic because you know, you look at these pensioners, you look at these teenagers, and these just unarmed people marching in the streets, and oftentimes they can bring down even entrenched dictatorships, and you think, well, how is that possible? And the way that it works is that if there are too many people in the streets, dictators have to respond because they cannot afford to look weak, so they use violence. But when you club down women and children or pensioners, oftentimes the next day you have even more people in the streets, and then you're forced into something that in German we call a choice between the plague and cholera. So there are no more good options for the dictator, because if that dictator orders the use of lethal force, somebody actually has to do the firing, and oftentimes it is exactly at that moment when the opposition looks the weakest and the regime looks the strongest, that the security forces refuse because they don't want to kill their neighbors, they don't want to kill their own people. And when that happens, the dictators lose control, or alternatively, palace leites might refuse to go along with it. So if you can bring out enough people into the streets, you can almost get these regimes to collapse under the weight of their own repression.

For the book, you interviewed everyone from diplomats to disidents. Was there a conversation within all of the ones that you had that had the greatest impact on your thinking about the subject and why is that?

For the book, you interviewed everyone from diplomats to disidents. Was there a conversation within all of the ones that you had that had the greatest impact on your thinking about the subject and why is that?

Yeah, it was important to me to talk to people that had actually been there, so to speak. You know, I didn't want to make it too dry and too too theoretic, So yeah, I mean, I talked to war criminals, I talked to coup plotters, intelligence officials, and one conversation is always going to stay with me, and it was with a coup plotter who originally was a non violent activist, so you know, he was half American off Gambian, and he would raise money to weaken the dictatorship at home, so to speak. But eventually things at home got so bad because there were just more reports about people being tortured, people being killed, that he had a decision to make. You know, at what point would he give up the non violent struggle and be willing to use violence or to support violence in order to bring down this horrendous dictator. And eventually he decided that nonviolence just wasn't enough.

Yeah, it was important to me to talk to people that had actually been there, so to speak. You know, I didn't want to make it too dry and too too theoretic, So yeah, I mean, I talked to war criminals, I talked to coup plotters, intelligence officials, and one conversation is always going to stay with me, and it was with a coup plotter who originally was a non violent activist, so you know, he was half American off Gambian, and he would raise money to weaken the dictatorship at home, so to speak. But eventually things at home got so bad because there were just more reports about people being tortured, people being killed, that he had a decision to make. You know, at what point would he give up the non violent struggle and be willing to use violence or to support violence in order to bring down this horrendous dictator. And eventually he decided that nonviolence just wasn't enough.

What was the point for him?

What was the point for him?

I think the point was just that he saw that there was no real hope in nonviolence in that particular case, so he wanted to use nonviolence. You know, this is who he was. He was a peaceful activist. You know, he wasn't somebody who's going to pick up a gun or support that in any way. But he just thought it became increasingly futile, and you know, as people were suffering so much. And what happened was eventually that he became convinced that violence was the only solution, and this peaceful activist turn into an international arms trafficker. So you would buy guns and mass in the US and then they would be shipped in oil drums across the Atlantic, where then a team of fellow coup plotters would use it back at home in West Africa. And you know, I think this is something that I'm German, so given our history, I often think, well, you know, what would I have done? And you know this type of question, Okay, when does violence become justified? I worry might be something that all of us will have to think about more in the future.

I think the point was just that he saw that there was no real hope in nonviolence in that particular case, so he wanted to use nonviolence. You know, this is who he was. He was a peaceful activist. You know, he wasn't somebody who's going to pick up a gun or support that in any way. But he just thought it became increasingly futile, and you know, as people were suffering so much. And what happened was eventually that he became convinced that violence was the only solution, and this peaceful activist turn into an international arms trafficker. So you would buy guns and mass in the US and then they would be shipped in oil drums across the Atlantic, where then a team of fellow coup plotters would use it back at home in West Africa. And you know, I think this is something that I'm German, so given our history, I often think, well, you know, what would I have done? And you know this type of question, Okay, when does violence become justified? I worry might be something that all of us will have to think about more in the future.

And being German as well as and having that history, how did that affect how you approached the subject, if at all.

And being German as well as and having that history, how did that affect how you approached the subject, if at all.

You know, I think it's a topic that's difficult to void if you're German, and for good reason. You know, we think about it a lot our history and you know what we can learn from it and what we need to do in order to prevent anything like that from ever happening again. So I think I've always been interested in the topic in some way, purely because it's difficult not to be. But I guess what really what really got me onto the topic is after university I decided to work in the Congo for a while, and when I was working in a brewery in Lubumbashi, there was a coup attempt in the capital in Kinchassa, and even though I was quite far away, there was some shooting in the vicinity and you know, an explosion nearby. And that day also really stuck with me because when it happened, I felt kind of helpless and in danger, and I since then, I've always wanted to find out what happened and why, you know, like how do you get rid of these people? How do they stay in power? How does a coup work? You know, when do people get assassinated? So yeah, I think it's history, but it's also just you know, live the experience in a way.

You know, I think it's a topic that's difficult to void if you're German, and for good reason. You know, we think about it a lot our history and you know what we can learn from it and what we need to do in order to prevent anything like that from ever happening again. So I think I've always been interested in the topic in some way, purely because it's difficult not to be. But I guess what really what really got me onto the topic is after university I decided to work in the Congo for a while, and when I was working in a brewery in Lubumbashi, there was a coup attempt in the capital in Kinchassa, and even though I was quite far away, there was some shooting in the vicinity and you know, an explosion nearby. And that day also really stuck with me because when it happened, I felt kind of helpless and in danger, and I since then, I've always wanted to find out what happened and why, you know, like how do you get rid of these people? How do they stay in power? How does a coup work? You know, when do people get assassinated? So yeah, I think it's history, but it's also just you know, live the experience in a way.

So we often hear about you know, Stalin Hitler movies, TV school history classes, But do you think there are perhaps better examples out there we should be placing better emphasis on when studying these kind of regimes.

So we often hear about you know, Stalin Hitler movies, TV school history classes, But do you think there are perhaps better examples out there we should be placing better emphasis on when studying these kind of regimes.

The book is an attempt to look at general mechanisms to understand what these leaders might do, what their incentives are, whether they're Stalin or Hitler or somebody from Paraguay or you know, the Gambia. But I do think in some ways we limit ourselves in our analysis by always looking back to Hitler or to Stalin, so we see a democratic politician who would like to turn into a dictator or an authoritarian. And you know, it's always like, well, this is like Hitler, this is like Hitler. But you know, there are a lot of you know, non democratic leaders in human history, and in fact, you know, I would argue that tyranny is the default of human existence. You know, usually we have been ruled by tyrants in one way or another. So yeah, I mean, I think we would do well to look at a wider range of these leaders to understand what is happening in the world today.

The book is an attempt to look at general mechanisms to understand what these leaders might do, what their incentives are, whether they're Stalin or Hitler or somebody from Paraguay or you know, the Gambia. But I do think in some ways we limit ourselves in our analysis by always looking back to Hitler or to Stalin, so we see a democratic politician who would like to turn into a dictator or an authoritarian. And you know, it's always like, well, this is like Hitler, this is like Hitler. But you know, there are a lot of you know, non democratic leaders in human history, and in fact, you know, I would argue that tyranny is the default of human existence. You know, usually we have been ruled by tyrants in one way or another. So yeah, I mean, I think we would do well to look at a wider range of these leaders to understand what is happening in the world today.

Are there any that you would suggest for a high school history teacher who came up to you and I you, what should my next term's topic be? What would you tell them?

Are there any that you would suggest for a high school history teacher who came up to you and I you, what should my next term's topic be? What would you tell them?

You know, I think it's probably easiest to approach these topics with people who haven't thought about it a lot by making reference to the contemporary world. You know, my experience is that it's maybe a little bit more difficult to get people to be interested in seventeenth century Paraguay. You know, then it would be to talk to them maybe about Kim Jong un or to talk about Putin, and to talk about contemporary leaders. So I think what I would do is to look at contemporary leaders and you know, see how they behave, see what they do, what they don't do, and then maybe try to explain their behavior by looking at people from the past.

You know, I think it's probably easiest to approach these topics with people who haven't thought about it a lot by making reference to the contemporary world. You know, my experience is that it's maybe a little bit more difficult to get people to be interested in seventeenth century Paraguay. You know, then it would be to talk to them maybe about Kim Jong un or to talk about Putin, and to talk about contemporary leaders. So I think what I would do is to look at contemporary leaders and you know, see how they behave, see what they do, what they don't do, and then maybe try to explain their behavior by looking at people from the past.

History made overnight. As Syrian dictator Bashal Assad is overthrown in a lightning move by rebel fighters, they are this morning inside the presidential Palace walking it's huge halls, celebrating amid the abandoned luxury of the Assad regime. As outside, jubilation spreads on the streets of the capitol. For a moment, few saw coming rebels declaring victories, the state TV studios saying the city of Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant bashal Assad has been toppled, the rebels seizing Damascus almost without a fight, as Assad's military appeared to evaporate.

History made overnight. As Syrian dictator Bashal Assad is overthrown in a lightning move by rebel fighters, they are this morning inside the presidential Palace walking it's huge halls, celebrating amid the abandoned luxury of the Assad regime. As outside, jubilation spreads on the streets of the capitol. For a moment, few saw coming rebels declaring victories, the state TV studios saying the city of Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant bashal Assad has been toppled, the rebels seizing Damascus almost without a fight, as Assad's military appeared to evaporate.

Is there ever a right way for a dictatorship to fall or are they just all kind of doomed to be quite messy, quite unpredictable and eventually dangerous.

Is there ever a right way for a dictatorship to fall or are they just all kind of doomed to be quite messy, quite unpredictable and eventually dangerous.

If it is possible, the best way to bring down dictators is soon nonviolence. So you want to bring out those people in the streets, and you want to bring them down by not using force. And part of the reason is again due to incentives. So if you know, couplotters bring down a dictator, usually their comparative advantage is violence because that's what they just used. So going forward, they might not be particularly interested in democratizing the country. But usually when you have masses of people in the streets, they're already good at forming some sort of consensus on some things. You know, they have to find a way to solve their disputes without using force. So when they are then in power, you know, they want to stick to what they're good at, So they're much like, much more likely to democratize than you know, rebels or coup plot.

If it is possible, the best way to bring down dictators is soon nonviolence. So you want to bring out those people in the streets, and you want to bring them down by not using force. And part of the reason is again due to incentives. So if you know, couplotters bring down a dictator, usually their comparative advantage is violence because that's what they just used. So going forward, they might not be particularly interested in democratizing the country. But usually when you have masses of people in the streets, they're already good at forming some sort of consensus on some things. You know, they have to find a way to solve their disputes without using force. So when they are then in power, you know, they want to stick to what they're good at, So they're much like, much more likely to democratize than you know, rebels or coup plot.

Of Are there any current leaders or regimes that, in your view, are exhibiting signs of vulnerability?

Of Are there any current leaders or regimes that, in your view, are exhibiting signs of vulnerability?

I think all of them, do you know. I think this is one of the things that I think people get wrong. So people look at these dictators staying in powerful multiple decades, and they think that that necessarily translates into stability.

I think all of them, do you know. I think this is one of the things that I think people get wrong. So people look at these dictators staying in powerful multiple decades, and they think that that necessarily translates into stability.

In the future.

In the future.

Well, look at b Alasade, you look at Basha a Lassade, and you know, one of the reasons for that is because in these regimes you cannot afford to lose just a few people, you know, These are winner takes at all systems, and they are based on the perception of inevitability. So Bashallah started stayed in power because people thought that there was no real alternatives. But the moment that his own people and the people at large realized, you know what, actually that could be an alternative, he could be toppled. This could actually happened. He was toppled very quickly, and in the Syrian capital of Damascus. What you saw is that his own soldiers would just take over their uniforms from to the side of the road and go home. So even though these regimes may look stable, they are much more fragile than they seem. And every dictator can fall at any moment.

Well, look at b Alasade, you look at Basha a Lassade, and you know, one of the reasons for that is because in these regimes you cannot afford to lose just a few people, you know, These are winner takes at all systems, and they are based on the perception of inevitability. So Bashallah started stayed in power because people thought that there was no real alternatives. But the moment that his own people and the people at large realized, you know what, actually that could be an alternative, he could be toppled. This could actually happened. He was toppled very quickly, and in the Syrian capital of Damascus. What you saw is that his own soldiers would just take over their uniforms from to the side of the road and go home. So even though these regimes may look stable, they are much more fragile than they seem. And every dictator can fall at any moment.

And finally, what can countries like New Zealand, a rather small player on the world stage, what can we do to help communities under these kind of leaders.

And finally, what can countries like New Zealand, a rather small player on the world stage, what can we do to help communities under these kind of leaders.

Usually the closer you are to power, the more influence you have on the fall of a dictator. So you know, the minister of Defense is going to have more influence than a mid ranking civil servant, and that mid ranking civil servant is going to have more influence than a shopkeeper somewhere in the hinterlands. And when it comes to foreign powers. Again, much of it is determined by their intent, you know, what are they willing to risk, but also by their capabilities, So what could they actually bring to bear in terms of economic power or in terms of military power. Smaller countries, I think, do have a role to play, but it is at the lower end of the risk spectrum. So you know, there are things like supporting journalists. You know, you can go ahead with sanctions, you can support independent NGOs, and all of these things are good. They're not necessarily going to lead to the fall of dictators immediately, but they will create the conditions that you need for that moment when that crisis arrives. You know, when there is that spark and you know a revolution could happen. Countries like New Zealand can leave the groundwork for that.

Usually the closer you are to power, the more influence you have on the fall of a dictator. So you know, the minister of Defense is going to have more influence than a mid ranking civil servant, and that mid ranking civil servant is going to have more influence than a shopkeeper somewhere in the hinterlands. And when it comes to foreign powers. Again, much of it is determined by their intent, you know, what are they willing to risk, but also by their capabilities, So what could they actually bring to bear in terms of economic power or in terms of military power. Smaller countries, I think, do have a role to play, but it is at the lower end of the risk spectrum. So you know, there are things like supporting journalists. You know, you can go ahead with sanctions, you can support independent NGOs, and all of these things are good. They're not necessarily going to lead to the fall of dictators immediately, but they will create the conditions that you need for that moment when that crisis arrives. You know, when there is that spark and you know a revolution could happen. Countries like New Zealand can leave the groundwork for that.

Thanks for joining us, Marcel, Thank you very much.

Thanks for joining us, Marcel, Thank you very much.

For having me.

For having me.

That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.

That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.