The Favorites Sports Betting PodcastThe Favorites - Super Bowl Trends with Evan Abrams
Patrick Mahomes has played 50 total games at home or on a neutral field in November or later. He's won an incredible 44 of those 50 games. This is just one of the marvelous statistical nuggets Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams unearths for us in this episode. Together with hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, Evan goes through his top trends and data finds for Super Bowl LIX, kicking off in New Orleans next Sunday. #Volume #herd
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I'm in our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio. I'm joined as always by my cost my companion, mikem Padre might be a FF professional vetter, Simon Hunter.
Ed O Simon, and I am in my Tommy John studio. Thank you, Tommy John, my brother.
Yeah, to see you one day closer. Today is a big episode. It's our super Bowl Trends episode with our favorite director of research and Favorites mainstay, the man who signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams. Will bring him on in a second. Next Tuesday, We've got Chris Raybond and Sean Cerner around to discuss their favorite props. And then Thursday, we will of course nailed and discuss our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who crushed it all season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network Pod with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets that I religiously made. We're gonna give it our Foxhole, our Tommy John big Balls Simon's Biggest Bets will play scoot Roulette all that jazz.
The road to the super Bowl is long and pointless. I mean, when do you think about it? Football is so great, but now the two conference champs must survive a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys five weeks.
Bronco Negersky didn't get no bye weeks and now he's dead.
Well maybe they were a good thing for now, we got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five and now new Bet three six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls this week as well. We did a little bit of it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer to the game a week from today. First, let's bring in Evan Abrams.
Director of research.
He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that we rely on so much during the season. Evan is going to lay it out for us in one big palette. Let's go, brother, give me your first best trend.
Well, first of all, Chad, Hi, how are you This? This one panders directly to you, though, So we started off with our biggest contract.
Like, by the way, there's only one person who likes pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it a political show, but we all know who gets Well.
Yeah, we're here to kind of teasey a little bit because this is the one you're going to You've been really looking for, so only betting the best teams is something you kind of talk about all the time this year, you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles, which is a ticket you had in the preseason them meeting in the Super Bowl. Yeah, but this is an interesting thing and I think it says a little bit more about the current state of the NFL. Let's call it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about taking the strategy of all twelve to one teams or shorter in terms of Super Bowl favorites and taking a round robin approach. So so I spoke with Matt and basically we dope and we dived into this. So I just want to start there and say, if you're feeling bold, and every August for the last ten years, you bet every single combination of teams at twelve to one or shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds combos in that span. It's won four times in sixty seven total combinations. Now, that would be this year's Chiefs and Eagles, Chiefs Niners, Chiefs, Bucks and Pats Rams. That's the four times it's hit Now of the sixty seven total combos, we've had four winners. So we've had sixty three losers at one unit per bet. The four winners paid about eighty four units minus to sixty three losers. You'd be up about twenty one units doing this round robin strategy last decade. Now, what if you weren't feeling so bold, what about just straight flat betting every twelve to one team or shorter. So over the last decade, that's fifty six total teams, so fifty six bets. It's won nine times, including this year, and it's lost forty seven times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight winners paid out sixty five units minus to forty seven losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up about eighteen units holding the Philly and KC tickets now for what it's worth as well. And this is just obviously more about the current state of the NFL twenty fourteen, which is one year back of this sample size. New England plus six fifty one at all, twenty thirteen, Seattle eight to one, one at all. Now, twenty twelve is where we get a string of long shots, starting with Baltimore who wanted eighteen to one. But basically since that twenty thirteen year, we have consistently seen the Brady's, the Mahomes and just the favorites every single year, Chad. So your strategy so far, so good?
Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your strategy because I basically just did what you told me to do, because I believe the stat is And now it's eleven of the past twelve seasons the teams who had odds of twelve to one or less were in the Super Bowl. They were the matchup.
No, so it's the super Bowl champion. A bunch of those years you had the other team in the mix. So only four times last decade have both teams actually fit your trend where both were twelve to one or shorter in the Super Bowl odds and we basically had to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense because you're basically taking every team that's twelve to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl yep, and then you're taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting a ticket where yours was like twenty eight to one. Right, yes, yeah, so this one I believe was like twenty seven to one using these odds, but basically you'd be around those units. But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious what Simon thinks like because everyone loves these long shots and basically it hasn't hit up one year in the past twelve or thirteen years in the NFL, and this is a one game sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's it's to honestly a little bit crazy.
Yeah.
My view I think ivan to agree with this is I take long shots the hedge and I've missed the two best ones in the last four or five years. I missed on the Bengals one hundred and fifty to one, and I obviously missed on the Commanders this year. One hundred and fifty one. That's that's a position, right, that's where you want to go. You want to take those type of bets. You know, this a great one this upcoming year. I fucking hate us Chad for saying that. I guess who's one hundred and one right now or one hundred and fifty to one, I should say Panthers. So you think they can make the next step they get the right guys, that's the type of team you gotta do. You got to you gotta do it on a team that no one believes in the Joe Burrow one. That was a flucush one, right, he's coming off a knee injury after his rookie year. The Commanders one, obviously no one saw coming, right. I didn't see too many people flashing their one hundred and fifty one tickets they had. I know that one guy had uh was at circle. I forget what book it was. It was basically bet two k to win five hundred k on the Commanders didn't come through. I'm sure that pro headed it out, but yeah, what happens telling you right now is the league has gotten not we want to say stale, but it kind of has. Right. It's the top dogs, and even coming this year, Chad was going through his list and I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that one, right. I remember saying the child was like, don't don't do Houston. Stay away from them, and I just don't think they have the pieces. And I think I also gave him bad advice too. I said I wouldn't do the Lions coming to this year. I thought there was too much bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the year before. The forty nine Ers got very lucky that one worked out because for a minute the midway through the season, I was like, I just cost Chad a ton of money. The Lions are a juggernaut. So I'm with you on that, Evan. I would love to hear what you have on Patrick. Mahomes actually gave out a trend I thought was a good one that I was wrong on my man. Evan helped me out. I thought Mahomes was fifty to zero on Dome games. He is fourteen oh one in Dome games. So still pre insane frience. I know we got we gotta be truth by they'll correct ourselves. Fourteen oh one Mahomes and Dome games in his career are pretty.
Insane, absolutely insane, and yeah, let me these are the stats to me when you talk about Mahomes in the Super Bowl, they I was talking about this before we even went live here. They feel all made up like this Legit feels like you put that stat out there where someone's like twenty five and two and everyone you know thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So let me just kind of go through some of these. In January February, Mahomes has played eighteen games at home or on a neutral field, He's sixteen and two straight up his losses against Burrow and Brady. If you throw in November and December, he's forty four and six straight up. Just the playoffs, Mahomes has been an underdog or a favorite under a field goal eight times. He's eight and no straight up and ats in those games. Now, when you talk about on the field success and basically these games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit, Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime nine total playoff games. He's won six forced overtime in two of those games. Mahomes has played twenty games in the playoffs. He's seventeen and three straight up eighty five percent minimum ten games in the playoffs starts. That win percentage is second best since nineteen fifty behind just bart Starr, who is nine and one just ten playoff games.
And I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I think Simon gave this out on Tuesday, bart Starr is the only quarterback to go three straight because remember he had an NFL championship and then they won those first two Super Bowls. So that's that's the company. He's keeping on that one.
Yeah, just trophies, troph trophy names. At this point, it's ridiculous he's winning Hallis because you know he's meeting Alice. It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home. Mahomes have started twenty six games away from home as either an underdog or a favorite of three points or less twenty one four and one against a spread eighty four percent in those games. I'll say that one again because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, twenty six games away from home as an underdog or a favorite of three or less twenty one four and one eighty four percent.
And then Christ Simon, we are just so setting ourselves up to be crushingly humiliated like they. You know, it's like we are not the people who lean into stats like these when it is the higher profile quarterback and the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning in the Carolina Panthers, even when the Panthers haven't played in a month. Like the fact that we have invested the way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us up to be on the wrong side. I just got it. I have to say. I have to say that out loud. Do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you with me when you hear these things? Like when I hear these things, that makes me uncomfortable, doesn't make me feel better about my position.
No, I only worry about you mushing regular season playoff. I don't think you can mush it. There's too much going on in the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no, we talked about, like Evan said on the top of the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk about homes because we've never seen it before. And it's what we keep talking about. The models don't get it right. Computer models can't get it because it's it doesn't sound real what he does. And it's the same thing with Brady, like you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent that just breaks all the rules, all the trends, and yeah, just hearing these numbers. Even like Evan, even though he told us these don't sound real but they're real, they still don't sound real, right. The fact that he is just reading off all these stats where it's twenty one and four, eight and oh, sixteen and two. It's like, holy shit, man, this kid is just so incredible. Twenty nine years old too, only twenty nine.
Yeah, that one away from home is as an underdog, is ub sir.
Yeah, he's agreed.
He's the grim Reaper and everyone kind of talks about it in these situations. But when you're winning like that neutral and away, and you know, even his losses and it's weird you look at him most some of them are home, they're just eggs. Sometimes during the regular season, when he goes away from home, he becomes a killer.
Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they have to do.
And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told this to Simon and Okay, so he's five and zero neutral field, which we get, I mean the Super Bowls, plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing that's crazy about it is twenty eighteen. And this is the stat that kind of blows me away. So since twenty eighteen, entering the fourth quarter overtime down one possession, one to eight points, Chiefs have had twelve drives. They've scored on eleven of them, eleven of twelve drives down one score, They've scored eleven times out of twelve drives twenty eighteen in the playoffs, all other teams are like five of eleven, three of nine, two of nine. I mean, he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous. So that's my Mahomes stat. That's why.
That's why you with him, is because you have to because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time, announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At the end of the game, do you want to be on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes if he has the ball in his hand and they need to score to win. That's it. That's how you're betting this game, you know what I mean. It's just it is asurd. I can't say it enough.
And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo. I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in that game, but in the end, I mean, he was stone cold. And the other one we can talk about with Mahomes but also has to do with Andy Reid is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy Reid is, but the combo together is actually pretty crazy, and it's another stat which just feels made up. But during the season, Mahomes has played thirty four games on extended rest since twenty nineteen, so that's basically eight days or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday. It would be more than that. He's one thirty of those thirty four games straight up. So thirty and four losses to Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O'Connell again one Jalen Hurts, which is funny, but thirty and four just absolutely stupid stuff.
Our Bet three six ' five Super Bowl Prop contest is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your custom bet on Bet three sixty five, email your top Super Bowl prop ideas to podcasts. There's an at the end of that podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. You must adhere to State Gaming Commission rules, which basically means every part of the bet has to be settled on the field to play on the field. In the box score, the winning submissions often have a clever name, like the Broctopus or the Millennium Falcon that's from the Matt Ryan Super Bowl winner gets an Action Network prize the chance to come out of the show talk to me and Simon about it. The pick will go live on the BET three six ' five website. Admissions are open until Thursday. Podcasts at actionnetwork dot com.
That is, today's final warnings.
Must be in today. All right, Evan, By the way, you have one job make me and Silent feel better, so don't make me feel bad.
Well, okay, so some of this information. I'm just a man who delivers, all right. I don't fully love everything, but I think some of the numbers on some of these are interesting. So let's give you one trend and let's see your thoughts on it, because I think you and I, especially in all the shows that you and I have done together, sample size is something that's important of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo. So the question is is there anything we can glean from that? So the Eagles scored fifty five points in the Conference championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only two other teams have scored more than forty five points in a conference championship. Bills did it in ninety one and then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it in twenty sixteen, then also lost the Super Bowl. So ten total teams have scored forty plus points in a conference championship game. They're three and seven in the Super Bowl. So another one and I'll add on top of it, and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat the Commanders by thirty two points. Teams win by double digits in a conference championship round facing a team who did not three and six straight up and against the spread super Bowl since two thousand, failing to cover by nine point five points per game, which would tell you they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, which I could look back and look. But if you're winning by double digits and then you're an underdog in the game, that probably doesn't happen often, but to me, it does probably speak on a little bit of competition. So I'll get your thoughts on that and then we can kind of move on. But both both of those trends kind of telling you that the conference championship is a little bit of a hold on weight.
Before you act quick, yeah, exc I mean you go ahead.
I agree with it, Like just theve not knowing those trends, just the thinking of it. It's like, how often do we see a team play their best game of the year and then totally have a letdown the following game, Right, It's just every one game you go from everything is going perfectly the well, everything's moving smoothly, you're getting turnovers, you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals, and then the next week everything feels harder, right like it. You know, my buddy I went to the book with he was on Washington. He turns to me, after that first drive that Washington had, he said was exactly what Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit. They did to earn every yard than it was against Detroit. And that's how football can be, right, do you have the right match with the right team, it can be easy, and once you get once, it feels easy and you have confidence. It's the opposite for the other team, right, they're losing a confidence and they see how hard it is to stop you. That's that's it to me. What really stands up there was the Eagles are coming off their easiest game in my opinion, I've ever seen them play, right, I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football hasn't easy. It's the most points scored in a conference championship game. So I think that's what Evan's kind of telling you people. It's like Eagles just have the best game of their life. You expect them to have a letdown game and then going to get some Mahomes team. They're just strays and arrow, same old Mahomes win and by three, close game and one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game, right, that was just another Mahomes India Reid game. So that's what I'm definitely taking away from what Evans telling us there.
Yeah, I also take away from it. During the regular season, it's almost like an auto fade on the team that wins by you know, four plus touchdown, you immediately want to look in the other direction.
Now, again to Evan, unless it's Detroit during the regular season.
Right exactly to Evans point, Normally that team the next week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So there was a little bit of a difference here, But to me, it actually speaks to that there is an opportunity this team is at the top of the market. I wonder if this game opens with the Chiefs as even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two point favorites if the Eagles don't crush the Commanders the way they do, especially because the Commanders were the public side in that game, So the people who were betting on the Commanders are going to see the Eagles as being even better then they might have believed they were. That you know, you might even be getting half a point of value from a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now.
Yeah, speaking of the Eagles, do you have any trends about them after the buye week of Oh?
Man, So this one's just strange, and I think a little bit of momentum has something to do with this one. But let me lay it out. So, the Chiefs had a bye week entering the playoffs, the Eagles didn't play in the wildcard round. How much impact has the buye been even this late into the playoffs entering the Super Bowl and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already. In the Super Bowl era, teams that had a buy entering the playoffs facing a team who did play in the wildcard game or who did not have a by four and twelve straight up two thirteen and one against the spread, which would be very, very bad for the bye week Chiefs in that situation. I think the thing you can only really glean from this is that, like taking that buy doesn't give you as much momentum, because we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot, but to me, this one just feels like some weird noise. I don't know what to make of.
It feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two weeks of rest and yeah, you know, I don't know. It's not a huge sample set, but it's the only one. It's the only one that we have. I don't know that the next twenty six times this happens, it won't be flipped.
Yeah.
Back to make sense of it, and my view of it is football is all about rhythm and timing. So the Chiefs here have played what two games are their starter is now going to be for a month and a half. Yeah yeah, so that to me that does add up to a or you know, that is a big deal that you have a week off play two games and you have another week off, so that that definitely is gonna be a part of it.
Right.
The team's just not in a rhythm, not in sync. But what Chad just mentioned here is, you know, Mahomes, they're always in rhythm, right. It just when you watch him play, even last year against the forty nine ers, he was in a rhythm for that whole first half. Once he got a rhythm in that game, it totally flipped the switch. Once he gets going. I don't think they punted the rest of the game right once he got going against the foreigners defense. So that that to me, if that makes sense when you break it down like that, then yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not, you know, not not ready for that game speed because they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed. But we talk all the time, Mahomes. If anyone's gonna go against that trend, it's it's he's definitely got it back in that spot.
Yeah, that that one feels sorry, That one feels I don't know. I'm not buying it, and I'm not buying it because I I don't want to buy it, Like I don't I don't I want the confirmation and buy us. I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet, doesn't feel like we know enough.
Yeah, the four and twelve throws me off. The two thirteen and one could have been something to do with the points spread, but four and twelve kind of confirms it's not so little noisy for me. Don't know what to make of.
It, Simon. As you may remember, back in nineteen ninety three, the most indelible image of Super Bowl twenty seven was camptured. Captured long after the game was out of reach. With five minutes to go and a Dallas Cowboys up five touchdown, Leon Lett picked up a fumble and began to run, but right before he scored, Buffalo receiver Don beebe and has never said die, Western New York attitude chased him down sixty four yards to knock the ball loose for a touchback. Some claim it was Leon's showboting near the end zone that cost him his chance for glory, but true ballers know, true ballers like Simon and I know the real reason. He was bogged down by the scratchy inferior underwear of the nineteen nineties. Luckily, here in the distant future. Our friends at Tommy John have ended this decade long crisis. Tommy John makes the most comfortable underwear, shirts, and casual essentials for the men and women of the future, helping you extend your five touchdown lead over inferior lifestyles, cruising into the end zone of comfort with as much show voting flare as you desire. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?
Because comfort is king.
Right now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash favorites and give twenty five percent off your first order. Save twenty five percent Tommy john dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Let's just give Matt Mitchell huzzah. They're just they get better everyone. They're little short story gems.
Never know where you're going with them, never.
Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm going with them either. I am finding it out as I read it. Literally, I don't know what's going to happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell. He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of powerhouse, Evan, tell me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles, who's keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night with Fangio.
And you're right, Matt is a wordsmith, so you gotta give him Matt. But talking about Fangio for a second here, I think this is a just there's a bunch of different ways to look at this. So obviously defensive coordinator Eagles, but in this situation facing Mahomes, He's done that eight times in his career. So he did it six times with the Broncos, he did it twice with the Dolphins. Now Mahomes is eight to no in those games straight up, six and two against the spread. Mahomes as ten touchdowns, two picks, sixty four percent completion percentage. Feels a little low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms of the ten touchdowns in just eight games. But I kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one because I think this story is going to be out there a lot. So two of his lowest ten passing yard games in the regular season have come versus Fangio. Granted, Denver's offense scored fifteen points in those two games, so didn't really put up too much of a fight passing yards after catch, which important. This game first and fourth lowest career for ma Homes in regular season against that Fangio defense. In those eight games, bad throw percentage, so that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt. He's had twenty one games at twenty three percent or higher three versus Fangio. Of twenty negative EPA games in his career, two have come versus Fangio defenses, and also two of his top ten worst EPA games versus Fangio defense. Six of eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes had twenty percent pressure percentage, which is the times pressured per dropback. So I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton of games. I think the eight and no makes sense. I think the six and two makes sense. He's putting up some points, but overall, I think last time they met against Miami, he gave him a bunch of cover zero, which screwed with him a little bit. I think he's going to give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games. I think the data is actually a bit of a Yeah, you'll see the eight and no, but I think there's a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I've looked at going through it. Not that I take from it, thank you.
I needed to hear that because I was dived into the ice. When I saw that as numbers you had, I was like, oh my god, is this a bad magic Because when I on paper what you just said, it makes sense to me where it's like, this should be the perfect defense for Mahomes. You're only rushing four and you're giving them exotic looks, which's that's the only way to beat this guy, right. If you don't have a Max Crosby on your team, you know, you need have a really strong front four because we've seen that even the Raiders when they beat them, that's why they beat them, right, their front four gets pressure. So that's what the Eagles need to do here. And you know, that really backs up what I thought coming into this. And you know, let's let's think about this for a second. If this is the only way to beat them, I need those numbers to come true what you just said of it, I need Mahomes to have a bad game. You basically need the offensive the Eagles to show up. If they can basically put up Well, we just talked about over fifteen, sixteen, seventeen points. You know, if they get in the twenty point range, twenty five points, there is a chance they could beat this team because Mahomes. Like I said, coming into this, I thought this would be an undergame because I just can't see Mahomes putting up thirty points in back to back weeks like I thought last week. You know, we've talked coming into this, we thought the Bills had a weak defense. Right, They've had injuries. We know they had seventy million dead caps, so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense that Mahomes put up thirty two, his highest scoring game the whole year. You're giving me some confidence of it. I need to hear that from Vic because I was. I was worried when I saw that trend that he was eight to zero against Fangs defenses.
So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to know how often these games were played on extra rest or off of a bye, because I do think we've seen through your stats and through the years, no one is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid.
Right, Well, we said it was divisional. He said it was Denvers that you can count it as a bid chat just because that means they prep in the offseason for that defense, which I agree with you. It's like you could throw that into it. But that, to me is pretty interesting that he was like they had time to prep against it, and Fangs defense was still pretty damn good for being on not that great of a Denver defense.
See, well, now I was starting to rationalize why I could feel good and now I feel bad again. Shit, maybe go ahead.
The one I did look up because I felt like the other part of this forgetting Fangio for a second, I wanted to look at because the Eagles pass defense has been something we've been discussing all year and it's kind of everywhere. So and this helps your Mahomes case on one angle, but Mahomes versus pass defense is two hundred yards allowed or less. Pass defense. He's twenty three and three in his career, twelve straight wins. His last loss was October twenty twenty two against Buffalo. In November or later, He's twelve and oh straight up career. So the great pass defense thing and yeah, he's twelve and oh in every stat I'm going to give. But the fact that the two hundred yards are less on pass defense and the twelve and oh and twelve and oh later November tells me it's a mature pass defense, right, Like, this isn't a September pass defense that's played three games. I mean, this is a defense that's been a few games into the season and feels the stat more heavy to me, so absurd.
But well, the other thing I was going to say, and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning, which might lead to us liking Doctor Nicks past Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a half pass attempts even more. But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust in game. There's just nobody better at it, right. They can see it and like do it series to series, almost play to play because they're so in tune and so good at figuring out what the other team is doing and how to master the opposition. It's look, it's a great defense. There's there's no rationalizing that it will be giving everyone fits but it's what makes it so much more interesting, right.
Yeah, it makes me think too of Josh Allen, Like I haven't had some amazing stats. When Josh Allen plays really good defenses, his game gets even better. He's even better. And same goes for Mahomes. It's just two absolute unicorns in the sport where you know, most normal guys are going to struggle against great defenses, but not these guys. And I would love if we could play around and remember these guys.
This is I mean a guy who was born in the late eighties. I like sitting down and just naming old players. It's what I do for a living.
It's my most eighty nine December eighty seven.
Eighty seven. I'm in the middle there. I'm in the middle there. But basically, I was trying to do some research on Saquon Barkley and like how someone like that, based off of his season, could possibly do in a Super Bowl, or how many guys to put up his numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are the eleventh team to enter a Super Bowl with a fifteen one hundred plus yard regular season rusher and actually the first since Shawn Alexander in two thousand and five and Corey Dillon in two thousand and four, So those teams with those fifteen hundred yard rushers are actually eight and two in the Super Bowl. The two losses are Sean Alexander in five, Jamal Anderson nineteen ninety eight, Siriani And the thing that I thought was interesting of those ten teams is they're adding a rusher like Saquon Barkley, but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So what I looked at was Sirianni and Hertz have been there and they added Barkley. How many times of those ten rushers before Barkley did they have a coaching quarterback with Super Bowl experience? So two thousand and four, Corey Dillon, they had been there. It was Belichick and Brady. Two thousand and four they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen ninety eight, it was Shanahan and Lway. They had Terrell Davis they won the year prior they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen eighty eight, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh on Montana. They had both won twice prior to that. They also won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been there with that Rusher actually three to zero. Now they're eight and two overall, So I'm not telling you something crazy, but I was trying to come up with some sort of comp for just we've been here before, we've gone through the prep. Plus we also have this guy who's having an outstanding season tends to turn out pretty well in that spot. So that's the way I kind of looked at it and trying to calculate how this team adding this player who's been there would do very very small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing is Saquan's prop, right, which is like one twelve, one fourteen or so. This week, the question is is we haven't seen someone run for one hundred and twenty yards in a Super Bowl since Michael Pittman in two thousand and three. So I mean, either way getting to that number or higher is you know, it's Terrell Davis territory in ninety eight. So I guess we're.
Gonna have to see how that's how long it's been since a guy ran for that many yards. Yeah, I remember, you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember that Super Bowls used to be dominated by running backs. I know, before your time in the early eighties. We're talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen. Those were the freaking days. And now you're telling me it's twenty two years since a running back ran for one hundred and twenty yards. That is something.
It is, But it doesn't make sense too though, because you think most teams are going to have a dominant, great running back, probably gonna have a back quarter right Derrick Henry, he's with Tannehill. I mean CJ.
Twok.
That Tennessee team they had nothing. I mean that Tennessee team had nothing. Agrian Peterson go back and look through his career, all those incredible running seasons, he just never had a quarterback. So we don't want to blame the running backs here. Even Marshawn Lynch right those incredible years, there were still a pass happy offense, right with Russ, So it does make sense you dive into it. We're right. This is shows what kind of unicorn situation. It says, where you have the best offensive line, the best running back, and then a quarterback that's above average. So I definitely makes sense you dive into it. We joked that you know, the running backs have had a rebirth these last couple of years like they were dead right. The twenty tens to twenty twenty, the running back position just felt like it was nothing, getting no money, no respect. Now it's definitely going the other way, right that extra cap money. Teams are using it on these legit running backs, And we saw it this year Derrick Henry Saquon major major differences to the teams they.
Joined, Joe Shine and the New York Giants. Those clips of him hearing from that one slowly scout assistant whatever in his office saying are we sure no one's gonna pay Sequon and everyone being like, noah, no one's gonna pay him, and then him having the painful conversation with Saquon that they're gonna let him test the market, like, oh my god, it's it's it's excreased.
Yeah, not even that his daughter told him, our daughter or son told him to Jadon Daniels, Oh that's right, that's right.
Yeah, he was once in your lifetime. Why don't you go get the best player. It's like, holy shit, this kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football.
Got out think it. That's amazing. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting Simon knows. I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about edge boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edgeboost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus, your edge Boost debit card starts with a two hundred and fifty thousand dollars daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to help you stay responsible and there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost dot bet today to learn more and sign up. That's edgeboost dot bet all right, Evan. It's called the most efficient market of the year for a reason.
Explain unbelievable and totals almost dead even in the Super Bowl. It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever. Fifty eight total super bowls a date favorites twenty seven to twenty nine and two against the spread. There was no total in Super Bowl one. I can make one up, but I'm not going to. Since then, overs twenty eight, twenty eight and one absolutely dead even in Super Bowl history. In the last twenty one games, the over is ten and eleven. Can't get much more efficient than that, And the public opinion really is no help sides getting the majority of tickets eleven and ten straight up in ATS and the Super Bowl since two thousand and four. In the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side he won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago. But truthfully, itch is dead even It's the craziest thing. Talk about the most efficient market ever.
All Right, last one before we get out of here. We do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend for the Eagles and the Chiefs.
Yeah, fifth coaching match in Super Bowl history, all time head coach who won the first meeting straight up won the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously, we just did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done with Kauflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy. Sorry, Matt Mitchell and Chuck Noll and Tom Landry. And the craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles marks just the second time in NFL history same teams have met in the Super Bowl in a three year twice in a three year stretch, Bill's and Cowboys ninety two to ninety three. So, you know, quick rematched here, I think is really fun because we just saw this, we add a few you know, ingredients to the pie. We kind of go from there.
How does it make you feel, Simon?
I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different than they were the first time around. You go back and look, you know, the Eagles leading rusher with Jalen Hurts with seventy yards, they're given the ball to Miles Sanders. Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line, and we have Saguon Barkley. So it is interesting going back. I mean I painfully had to do it yesterday. I had to go back and watch that game, that Super Bowl. I did not watch the final two minutes. I already know what happens, but just rewatching it, you know, obviously the defense is totally different. Now, like it's really noticeable how different the style is compared to Gannon and this Fangs defense, where it was basically just being very careful, very soft, playing zone the entire game, where this new Eagles team super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play man. And yeah, obviously when you break it down the coaching mismatch, me and Chatter gave our opinion. We think the Chiefs have a huge advantage and Andy Reid and spag So yeah, it doesn't doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches, you know, especially the Kaflin one. Note he had the Patriots number, like he had the secret sauce right, that the four rushers, smart with the ball on all offense, very boring football. It worked like that style that Giants played. It was the perfect match for that that Patriots team. And I mean it is crazy. I think they lost three super Bowls and two of them to a Giants team that were what a wildcard team of So yeah, it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that, and like Evma said, since what twenty twelve, So once again, it's been pretty pretty born one and two seeds every year. Pretty much true story.
I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I don't think I ever told Matt Mitchell this at the Super Bowl one year after he had retired. When I was at Sports Illustrated, I fact checked. It was my first job at SI, fact checked a story about Marv Levy. I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero mentor IDOL, wrote the story. Then I had to as a fact checker. You got to call the subject and basically check every fact in the story, sometimes really intimate details. And so I had that conversation with Marv Levy and we were both going to be at the super Bowl forget where it was. The Bills weren't in it, and me and him and his wife had a drink and it was lovely. Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Now, Michelle, you happy I told that story.
Harvard Master's degree holder, Marv Levy, one of America's greatest treasures and who will be one hundred years old during WOW the end of training camp this year. Marv, if you're listing, you're a national treasurer.
I love you, class act all the way.
No place else should rather be this right here, right when it's too tough for them it's.
Not as as a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gam or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I We'll return with our next episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, one thirty pm Eastern two talk super Bowl props. Download us some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe, levis five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
