Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED three sixty five, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine preview episode. We will break down the lines for the Big Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles with our guest doctor Nick Giffen Predictive Analystic Action Network. We'll talk super Bowl bets, his incredible luck rankings.

Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED three sixty five, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine preview episode. We will break down the lines for the Big Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles with our guest doctor Nick Giffen Predictive Analystic Action Network. We'll talk super Bowl bets, his incredible luck rankings.

Hi, everybody Hi.

Hi, everybody Hi.

After Nick Simon and I will deliver our exec decision and our Simon says, because we are on the super Bowl schedule, reminder, we will wait and do our Big Balls foxhol Biggest bet Scutroulette next Thursday before the Super.

After Nick Simon and I will deliver our exec decision and our Simon says, because we are on the super Bowl schedule, reminder, we will wait and do our Big Balls foxhol Biggest bet Scutroulette next Thursday before the Super.

Bowl, as we do every year.

Bowl, as we do every year.

We've got a full menu of super Bowl betting intel for you over the next four episode. After today's betting preview episode, we've got our super Bowl Trend Show with our beloved data Mavin Evan Abrams on Thursday. Next Tuesday, we talk all things super Bowl props with Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon. Then we'll wrap it up next Thursday with our final Best Bets episode of the football season. Joined by Brandon Anderson, who has crushed it with his hot red bets on the Action Network podcast on Sunday Nights with Evan exciting a couple of weeks planning to break down over the next few episodes live from our Timomy John Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, mikeam Padra, my BFF, professional Better signmon hunter, el Sooimon Chad.

We've got a full menu of super Bowl betting intel for you over the next four episode. After today's betting preview episode, we've got our super Bowl Trend Show with our beloved data Mavin Evan Abrams on Thursday. Next Tuesday, we talk all things super Bowl props with Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon. Then we'll wrap it up next Thursday with our final Best Bets episode of the football season. Joined by Brandon Anderson, who has crushed it with his hot red bets on the Action Network podcast on Sunday Nights with Evan exciting a couple of weeks planning to break down over the next few episodes live from our Timomy John Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, mikeam Padra, my BFF, professional Better signmon hunter, el Sooimon Chad.

How are we doing?

How are we doing?

I am so good? You know, I.

I am so good? You know, I.

Know you feel this way. You've got the Eagles in the Super Bowl. You've got massive futures on the Eagles and the Chiefs. It feels like you've thread the needle beautifully. I am still feeling a little bit relieved because the Chiefs and the Eagles matchup bet paid off for me after a relatively shitty year.

Know you feel this way. You've got the Eagles in the Super Bowl. You've got massive futures on the Eagles and the Chiefs. It feels like you've thread the needle beautifully. I am still feeling a little bit relieved because the Chiefs and the Eagles matchup bet paid off for me after a relatively shitty year.

It is amazing to me.

It is amazing to me.

How different I feel in the twenty four to forty eight hours after.

How different I feel in the twenty four to forty eight hours after.

Something wins. I know, it's so stupid.

Something wins. I know, it's so stupid.

It's not like I'm betting money that is going to change my life one way or the other. It's only about seeing the opportunity and then over the next twenty four hours, feeling good that I made the right decision regretting decisions I made, regretting decisions I didn't make, regretting decisions I had in front of me that I missed. Like, it's really what it comes down to for me, and I just feel better having gotten the matchup.

It's not like I'm betting money that is going to change my life one way or the other. It's only about seeing the opportunity and then over the next twenty four hours, feeling good that I made the right decision regretting decisions I made, regretting decisions I didn't make, regretting decisions I had in front of me that I missed. Like, it's really what it comes down to for me, and I just feel better having gotten the matchup.

Bet. I know it sounds amateurs. I don't know what to tell you it is and it's not.

Bet. I know it sounds amateurs. I don't know what to tell you it is and it's not.

It's also I think it's because of this show. Right, we know how huge of a show this is and how many people listen, and a lot of pressure comes out. I wouldn't be lying to you to end this season going five zero to one on sides feels pretty fucking good for your boy. So yeah, I get where you're coming from. It's like, that's what we put all the work in for, and you know, when it comes out and works, it's like, God, this is this is the best feeling. But yeah, I agree. The hardest part is you're already onto the next week. So I definitely enjoyed it, was excited for it. When we talked Sunday night and I literally woke up Monday morning, I was just like, well, back to work, and that's just how that's the nature of this job. So I am really excited to dive into this matchup.

It's also I think it's because of this show. Right, we know how huge of a show this is and how many people listen, and a lot of pressure comes out. I wouldn't be lying to you to end this season going five zero to one on sides feels pretty fucking good for your boy. So yeah, I get where you're coming from. It's like, that's what we put all the work in for, and you know, when it comes out and works, it's like, God, this is this is the best feeling. But yeah, I agree. The hardest part is you're already onto the next week. So I definitely enjoyed it, was excited for it. When we talked Sunday night and I literally woke up Monday morning, I was just like, well, back to work, and that's just how that's the nature of this job. So I am really excited to dive into this matchup.

Well, let's get to it.

Well, let's get to it.

As a reminder of the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet.

As a reminder of the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet.

Three six five.

Three six five.

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Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply all right, Kansas City one and a half point.

Favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl fifty nine.

Favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl fifty nine.

Batt summer all here with John Matten and all that build up and all of this hoop lage, John, Is it as big as it seems?

Batt summer all here with John Matten and all that build up and all of this hoop lage, John, Is it as big as it seems?

I think it's bigger than it seems. And if you're one of these players or one of these coaches, it's the biggest thing in your life. And it's something that there are thirty teams in the league, and there are thirty teams or players and coaches, and every one of them want to be here today. And then you say, well, how big is that. It's even bigger than that, because it's not just getting here today, but it's winning today. And I think that the biggest difference in sports are the biggest gap in sports is a difference between the winner and the loser of the super Bowl. The winner, you're world champion. They can never take it away from you, you'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in the pile.

I think it's bigger than it seems. And if you're one of these players or one of these coaches, it's the biggest thing in your life. And it's something that there are thirty teams in the league, and there are thirty teams or players and coaches, and every one of them want to be here today. And then you say, well, how big is that. It's even bigger than that, because it's not just getting here today, but it's winning today. And I think that the biggest difference in sports are the biggest gap in sports is a difference between the winner and the loser of the super Bowl. The winner, you're world champion. They can never take it away from you, you'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in the pile.

The total is forty nine and a half the money line. Since the number is so short, I do want to give that as an option right now. It's anywhere minus one twenty five to minus one thirty. I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one and a half and Kansas City on the money line at minus one twenty Simon Simon, I'm making Kansas City on the money line. My exec decision, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

The total is forty nine and a half the money line. Since the number is so short, I do want to give that as an option right now. It's anywhere minus one twenty five to minus one thirty. I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one and a half and Kansas City on the money line at minus one twenty Simon Simon, I'm making Kansas City on the money line. My exec decision, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

Are you at your honest execute number? Executive decision already diving right in it's available.

Are you at your honest execute number? Executive decision already diving right in it's available.

Last week, you beat me to the punch, so I felt like to get on a straight away.

Last week, you beat me to the punch, so I felt like to get on a straight away.

Yeah, I don't hate it, obviously. It's been interesting the movement this week, and that's what I can't wait to dive into, because we can do like a mini sharp call here just about the early reads on you know what I'm hearing and what guys are saying. And we talked Sunday night the line was moving to two. I thought we'd be sitting here, he'd be two and a half. I don't know about you.

Yeah, I don't hate it, obviously. It's been interesting the movement this week, and that's what I can't wait to dive into, because we can do like a mini sharp call here just about the early reads on you know what I'm hearing and what guys are saying. And we talked Sunday night the line was moving to two. I thought we'd be sitting here, he'd be two and a half. I don't know about you.

I did.

I did.

I'm actually shocked it's not a two right now.

I'm actually shocked it's not a two right now.

Yeah, and I told you the hesitation to me was going to be everyone like me that runs a model. I would be shocked if they didn't have the Eagles as a small favorite. And you know, coming into that matchup last week, I had the Chiefs as a favorite, and it really had a lot to do with I thought, you know, Hurts was injured. I really did think that knee was a real thing. You had to throw that out. The clear was no issue on the knee at all. I mean he had three rushing touchdowns. I know two of them were touch pushes, but he had another rushing touchdout was called back on a hold that really didn't affect the play all. So you should have two long rushing touchdowns. He did not look like an issue to me, So definitely a went back and looked break it all down. Do you have egos as a minus one favorite here? So I do understand the respect from the you know, heavy money coming in right now on the Eagles, because you look at most books right now it is Chiefs money, and I know in the action app it it says it's right now it's all Egles money. So I know, I know that could depending on where you're at and what books you use, it could fluctuate. But you know a couple of books I really respect. Right now, it looks like the early money is coming in on this Eagles team. So yeah, it's it's pretty interesting that the professionals are taking this Eagle side, and it looks like when you're looking at the Ticke account, that the public is doing what me and chatter probably ended up doing here and end up on the chief side because it just feels like the safer side. And we understand the Eagles are the better team. And I'm looking forward to diving into all these numbers, but you know, the Eagles to pull this off, Chad, they are going to have to be historical because we've seen my homes now it feels like the book is out, Like if you don't kill them, if you don't if not up double digits, yea, with two minutes to go with the ball, You're somehow going to lose that game. I don't know how he keeps doing it, like he just keeps finding these ways to win and that you know, the calls go their way. Everything we can talk we always talk about at the end of the day, they make the plays when they need to, like Spags makes the right blitz call when he needs to. And you know this Eagles team, then why I dive into it. It is better than that twenty seventeen team that Eagles won the Super Bowl with. And it's pretty easy to realize why Eagles had an all pro quarterback Carson Wentz go down. They have their all pro tackle and Jason Peters go down. Those are two major hits their offense. And then defensively, you know they had they had a bunch of injuries as well. So this Eagles team is healthy, like this is a team that might be getting Brandon Grahan back. So it's it's pretty well. We dive into it the fact that there are things the Eagles can do to beat this team. And I know people talked about, well, it's the Fangs defense, right then matter up, Well, you know it's the defense basically rushes four. We know from the history that's how you beat Mahomes. The only time we've seen him lose in the Super Bowl against Tom Brady was when he got pressured rushing four. That Tampa bead front was just incredible because we talked, I mean you go back with Star our podcast, we knew that game was gonna be won in the trenches from the Tampa side because they're left and right tackle ra out for the Chiefs. So when you look at this, that's the edge to me for the Eagles, right if you're looking for an edge to take here, we know the secondary is incredible. Yet I mean Quannon Mitchell in the playoffs so far twelve targets. He's gonna up four catches for twenty one yards, two interceptions of pass breakup. That's our rookie Quanyon Mitchell. That's incredible. Zach Brown, you know, could easily win Defensive Player of the Year. He's had twenty six tackles, three tackles for a loss, one force fumble, two FuMB was recovered, one interceptions, two pass deflected. That's that's insane that he's been playing dial level. So there are guys in the back end that could be a difference maker. My whole point was to getting that in Fangs defense. He he just rushes before and if you go back historically, he's zero for eight in his career against Patrick Mahomes. He's never beat Mahomes. So it's like, Okay, well maybe he's never had the guys. He's had some pretty good defenses. It's just Mahomes is just Andy Reid and Mahomes are always one step ahead. So yeah, it's it's really interesting breaking this game down with those numbers where it's like the Eagles have the defenders, but you know, Mahomes is gonna have a counter for it. Like we saw, we joked Chad that play I can't get over that rushing touchdown he had to win the game. Even the Bills defenders talk about they've never seen that on tape before. Guess where that game was. Guess where that play was on tape the Bills. They stole it from the Bills offense and ran against their defense. So Josh Allen play, they ran with Patrick Mahomes and made Travis Custer lee blacker. So that was just my long win answer getting through that. I'm trying to find reasons that back this Eagles team because it does come down the defense. But it's tough to find the silver lining here because Andy Reid and Patrickmwans always have a counter. I don't know if you feel the same way about that, chef.

Yeah, and I told you the hesitation to me was going to be everyone like me that runs a model. I would be shocked if they didn't have the Eagles as a small favorite. And you know, coming into that matchup last week, I had the Chiefs as a favorite, and it really had a lot to do with I thought, you know, Hurts was injured. I really did think that knee was a real thing. You had to throw that out. The clear was no issue on the knee at all. I mean he had three rushing touchdowns. I know two of them were touch pushes, but he had another rushing touchdout was called back on a hold that really didn't affect the play all. So you should have two long rushing touchdowns. He did not look like an issue to me, So definitely a went back and looked break it all down. Do you have egos as a minus one favorite here? So I do understand the respect from the you know, heavy money coming in right now on the Eagles, because you look at most books right now it is Chiefs money, and I know in the action app it it says it's right now it's all Egles money. So I know, I know that could depending on where you're at and what books you use, it could fluctuate. But you know a couple of books I really respect. Right now, it looks like the early money is coming in on this Eagles team. So yeah, it's it's pretty interesting that the professionals are taking this Eagle side, and it looks like when you're looking at the Ticke account, that the public is doing what me and chatter probably ended up doing here and end up on the chief side because it just feels like the safer side. And we understand the Eagles are the better team. And I'm looking forward to diving into all these numbers, but you know, the Eagles to pull this off, Chad, they are going to have to be historical because we've seen my homes now it feels like the book is out, Like if you don't kill them, if you don't if not up double digits, yea, with two minutes to go with the ball, You're somehow going to lose that game. I don't know how he keeps doing it, like he just keeps finding these ways to win and that you know, the calls go their way. Everything we can talk we always talk about at the end of the day, they make the plays when they need to, like Spags makes the right blitz call when he needs to. And you know this Eagles team, then why I dive into it. It is better than that twenty seventeen team that Eagles won the Super Bowl with. And it's pretty easy to realize why Eagles had an all pro quarterback Carson Wentz go down. They have their all pro tackle and Jason Peters go down. Those are two major hits their offense. And then defensively, you know they had they had a bunch of injuries as well. So this Eagles team is healthy, like this is a team that might be getting Brandon Grahan back. So it's it's pretty well. We dive into it the fact that there are things the Eagles can do to beat this team. And I know people talked about, well, it's the Fangs defense, right then matter up, Well, you know it's the defense basically rushes four. We know from the history that's how you beat Mahomes. The only time we've seen him lose in the Super Bowl against Tom Brady was when he got pressured rushing four. That Tampa bead front was just incredible because we talked, I mean you go back with Star our podcast, we knew that game was gonna be won in the trenches from the Tampa side because they're left and right tackle ra out for the Chiefs. So when you look at this, that's the edge to me for the Eagles, right if you're looking for an edge to take here, we know the secondary is incredible. Yet I mean Quannon Mitchell in the playoffs so far twelve targets. He's gonna up four catches for twenty one yards, two interceptions of pass breakup. That's our rookie Quanyon Mitchell. That's incredible. Zach Brown, you know, could easily win Defensive Player of the Year. He's had twenty six tackles, three tackles for a loss, one force fumble, two FuMB was recovered, one interceptions, two pass deflected. That's that's insane that he's been playing dial level. So there are guys in the back end that could be a difference maker. My whole point was to getting that in Fangs defense. He he just rushes before and if you go back historically, he's zero for eight in his career against Patrick Mahomes. He's never beat Mahomes. So it's like, Okay, well maybe he's never had the guys. He's had some pretty good defenses. It's just Mahomes is just Andy Reid and Mahomes are always one step ahead. So yeah, it's it's really interesting breaking this game down with those numbers where it's like the Eagles have the defenders, but you know, Mahomes is gonna have a counter for it. Like we saw, we joked Chad that play I can't get over that rushing touchdown he had to win the game. Even the Bills defenders talk about they've never seen that on tape before. Guess where that game was. Guess where that play was on tape the Bills. They stole it from the Bills offense and ran against their defense. So Josh Allen play, they ran with Patrick Mahomes and made Travis Custer lee blacker. So that was just my long win answer getting through that. I'm trying to find reasons that back this Eagles team because it does come down the defense. But it's tough to find the silver lining here because Andy Reid and Patrickmwans always have a counter. I don't know if you feel the same way about that, chef.

Dude, you're reading my mind, and it's so funny.

Dude, you're reading my mind, and it's so funny.

Last year at this time, we were looking at the Chiefs as two.

Last year at this time, we were looking at the Chiefs as two.

Point underdogs, I think, and.

Point underdogs, I think, and.

Struggling with betting the Chiefs because we clearly thought the Niners had a better roster, they were better at top to bottom, right, But we went with the Chiefs because you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes because Patrick Mahomes is a dog, and I would emphasize The stats we always talk about on Patrick Mahomes are not just as a dog, They're as a favorite of three or less or as a dog. So this is in that window. But I was thinking about this this morning. The comps are the same. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo.

Struggling with betting the Chiefs because we clearly thought the Niners had a better roster, they were better at top to bottom, right, But we went with the Chiefs because you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes because Patrick Mahomes is a dog, and I would emphasize The stats we always talk about on Patrick Mahomes are not just as a dog, They're as a favorite of three or less or as a dog. So this is in that window. But I was thinking about this this morning. The comps are the same. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo.

This is a Hall.

This is a Hall.

Of Fame trio who when Andy Reid has had a vehicle, a vessel for his brilliance, like Patrick Mahomes, he has pretty much been unstoppable. When I'm thinking about this game, I'm in the office today and I was just talking to the guy who runs our finance team, who happens to be a huge Buffalo Bills fan, and I said to him, we were talking about the game, obviously from this past weekend, and I was like, look, at the end of the day, over the next two weeks, do I trust Andy Reid to game plan over Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore?

Of Fame trio who when Andy Reid has had a vehicle, a vessel for his brilliance, like Patrick Mahomes, he has pretty much been unstoppable. When I'm thinking about this game, I'm in the office today and I was just talking to the guy who runs our finance team, who happens to be a huge Buffalo Bills fan, and I said to him, we were talking about the game, obviously from this past weekend, and I was like, look, at the end of the day, over the next two weeks, do I trust Andy Reid to game plan over Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore?

Yeah?

Yeah?

Do I trust Steve Spagnolo to game plan over Vic Fangio. Maybe it's even, but Spagnolo has done it in the biggest games, in the biggest circumstances, not just in Super Bowls, but that the way he disguised that blitz against Josh Allen on fourth and five was brilliant, had it in his bag the whole game and held it until he needed it.

Do I trust Steve Spagnolo to game plan over Vic Fangio. Maybe it's even, but Spagnolo has done it in the biggest games, in the biggest circumstances, not just in Super Bowls, but that the way he disguised that blitz against Josh Allen on fourth and five was brilliant, had it in his bag the whole game and held it until he needed it.

Right.

Right.

Do I trust Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts? Yes, so like I get the roster stuff at the end of the day, the people who need to make the decisions when they matter most that I trust the most.

Do I trust Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts? Yes, so like I get the roster stuff at the end of the day, the people who need to make the decisions when they matter most that I trust the most.

It's going to be on the Chiefs.

It's going to be on the Chiefs.

That's fair. And I do want to give flowers though, I mean, I don't want to make this all just love for this Chief side. Obviously, people know I'm a dire Eagles fan, tons of respect to this team. It's incredible what how he's built here, and Chad just said it, like I'm the same view. This is no doubt the best team of football. They have the best roster roster and it all comes down to health. Right. They've been able to stay healthy and that is the key. We talk all the time to getting to this point in the season, and you know, Jalen Hurts and again I love Chad. Chad went for being one of my best men and my future wedding in fifteen years to be not invited. When he left out of his top ten this past summer, I was so mad at Chad. I couldn't believe he did it. I felt portrayal because it just felt like they hate I had gone too far with Hurts and carried over it a little bit to this season because people wanted in to throw up, throw for more yards and score more touchdowns. And you know, we've seen some amazing stats these last twenty four hours on Jailen Hurts, and I'm gonna read off a couple just because I want to put people in perspective of just how high the bar is set for people sometimes and it doesn't really make sense because it's like it feels like you're watching a totally different game. So, last three seasons, including playoffs, Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts, let's compare their stats. Patrick Mahomes has forty eight wins, ten losses, pretty good. Jalen Hurts forty two wins, twelve losses. Their total yards per game Mahomes two ninety, pretty impressive, Jalen Hurts two sixty. Okay. Mahomes total touchdowns one to seventeen forty three turnovers. Jalen Hurts one hundred and twenty one touchdowns, thirty nine turnovers, So you did better than that stat. Passer rating Mahomes ninety eight point five, passer rating Hurts ninety seven point five, basically identical stats across the board. One is viewed as the greatest quarterback ever. One is not a top ten quarterback to Chad Moment. So that's what I mean. It's it's tough where I get the hate, but you just go through all these stats and it's incredible. Jalen Hurts is the eighth quarterback in NFL history reached multiple Super Bowls in their first five seasons. He joins Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Troy Aikman, John Oway. Okay, maybe Russell Wilson want to make the Hall of Fame. Everyone else I just read on that list is a Hall of Famer. So it's like, I get the hate and the doubt, but there this is the team in the quarterback that I do think could pull it off. But this is a long win away of getting I don't think I'm gonna put my money on it. I think I'm with Chad here and just the fact that it's Mahomes and it's under three in this exact spot, and I was hoping Evan was gonna be here for this little part because I saw a crazy stat that mahomes Is was coming into the season. He was eleven to zero. Don't and true dome games in his career eleven and oh he's now fifteen and oh through this whole season, and don't.

That's fair. And I do want to give flowers though, I mean, I don't want to make this all just love for this Chief side. Obviously, people know I'm a dire Eagles fan, tons of respect to this team. It's incredible what how he's built here, and Chad just said it, like I'm the same view. This is no doubt the best team of football. They have the best roster roster and it all comes down to health. Right. They've been able to stay healthy and that is the key. We talk all the time to getting to this point in the season, and you know, Jalen Hurts and again I love Chad. Chad went for being one of my best men and my future wedding in fifteen years to be not invited. When he left out of his top ten this past summer, I was so mad at Chad. I couldn't believe he did it. I felt portrayal because it just felt like they hate I had gone too far with Hurts and carried over it a little bit to this season because people wanted in to throw up, throw for more yards and score more touchdowns. And you know, we've seen some amazing stats these last twenty four hours on Jailen Hurts, and I'm gonna read off a couple just because I want to put people in perspective of just how high the bar is set for people sometimes and it doesn't really make sense because it's like it feels like you're watching a totally different game. So, last three seasons, including playoffs, Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts, let's compare their stats. Patrick Mahomes has forty eight wins, ten losses, pretty good. Jalen Hurts forty two wins, twelve losses. Their total yards per game Mahomes two ninety, pretty impressive, Jalen Hurts two sixty. Okay. Mahomes total touchdowns one to seventeen forty three turnovers. Jalen Hurts one hundred and twenty one touchdowns, thirty nine turnovers, So you did better than that stat. Passer rating Mahomes ninety eight point five, passer rating Hurts ninety seven point five, basically identical stats across the board. One is viewed as the greatest quarterback ever. One is not a top ten quarterback to Chad Moment. So that's what I mean. It's it's tough where I get the hate, but you just go through all these stats and it's incredible. Jalen Hurts is the eighth quarterback in NFL history reached multiple Super Bowls in their first five seasons. He joins Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Troy Aikman, John Oway. Okay, maybe Russell Wilson want to make the Hall of Fame. Everyone else I just read on that list is a Hall of Famer. So it's like, I get the hate and the doubt, but there this is the team in the quarterback that I do think could pull it off. But this is a long win away of getting I don't think I'm gonna put my money on it. I think I'm with Chad here and just the fact that it's Mahomes and it's under three in this exact spot, and I was hoping Evan was gonna be here for this little part because I saw a crazy stat that mahomes Is was coming into the season. He was eleven to zero. Don't and true dome games in his career eleven and oh he's now fifteen and oh through this whole season, and don't.

Get Evan to I mean, certainly Evan will be on Thursday and we can we can have yeah.

Get Evan to I mean, certainly Evan will be on Thursday and we can we can have yeah.

Because that just blew my mind where it's like I knew how dominant he was in indoor games and how rare was him to play it right, because you know, no one is division as home games. I know people count their chargers. That's actually not considered a true home game. I know, as stupid as that sounds, but the Saints Dome, this is as dome as it gets. It's the super Dome, so it's wild where it's if it's perfect, no wind, no bullshit, people always like, well, how good he is in the cold? Me and Chad loved that stet right sixteen and two, when it's below free degrees the man could be might be fifteen to zero in Dome games. It's just all of his numbers, all this stuff just breaks, all this stuff, all the work I put into it. So yeah, I wanted to find reasons the back to the Sequels team. I want to believe in Jalen Hurts, want to believe in Saquon Barkley, this wrong game after seeing Cooks just do whatever the hell he wanted. Again, it's this Chiefs team last week, Like this is a good matchup for the run game for this Eagles team. But like me and Chad, no, and when it's the fourth quarter, even if the Eagles are up a touchdown, Mahomes is gonna find a way. If you let him live long enough, he will find a way. So yeah, this is a really tough spot to be in. I was really hoping we would come in here and it'd be two and a half. Three this Eagle's number, And to me, same with the Bills. I would have been comfortable taking the three on this dog one and a half. I get the respect from the pros and what their models are telling them, I just can't do it. Once it's crossed that threshold with Mahomes. Once You're getting a great number of mahomes at one and a half, and you can do what Chad's doing. There's no dishonor in taking the money line, like you want to play it as safe as possible, because last week that game could have easily landed on one. Like I know, Chad was just like me doing that crazy math where it's like, oh my god, they missed a two pointer, They're gonna kick a field goal. This is gonna land on one. There's no dishonor in taking the money line there. But to me, I don't have fear and taking the one and a half of mahomes. We've just seen super Bowl in its entire history, it's only had one game landing between three. So we're talking a long history of the Super Bowl and only one time in its history is ever landing between three. So I'm good with taking the risks taking the one and a half. I just I believe in this Chiefs team, believe in the number, and I know I hate to do it. I hate to see my team lose, and I know it's gonna hurt, But you just have to trust Mahmes and Andy Reid and Spags. Like you just said, in the spot. They always find a way. You just gotta throw the numbers out here. People. It's so tough to do. But to me, there's only one side to take, and is the Chiefs.

Because that just blew my mind where it's like I knew how dominant he was in indoor games and how rare was him to play it right, because you know, no one is division as home games. I know people count their chargers. That's actually not considered a true home game. I know, as stupid as that sounds, but the Saints Dome, this is as dome as it gets. It's the super Dome, so it's wild where it's if it's perfect, no wind, no bullshit, people always like, well, how good he is in the cold? Me and Chad loved that stet right sixteen and two, when it's below free degrees the man could be might be fifteen to zero in Dome games. It's just all of his numbers, all this stuff just breaks, all this stuff, all the work I put into it. So yeah, I wanted to find reasons the back to the Sequels team. I want to believe in Jalen Hurts, want to believe in Saquon Barkley, this wrong game after seeing Cooks just do whatever the hell he wanted. Again, it's this Chiefs team last week, Like this is a good matchup for the run game for this Eagles team. But like me and Chad, no, and when it's the fourth quarter, even if the Eagles are up a touchdown, Mahomes is gonna find a way. If you let him live long enough, he will find a way. So yeah, this is a really tough spot to be in. I was really hoping we would come in here and it'd be two and a half. Three this Eagle's number, And to me, same with the Bills. I would have been comfortable taking the three on this dog one and a half. I get the respect from the pros and what their models are telling them, I just can't do it. Once it's crossed that threshold with Mahomes. Once You're getting a great number of mahomes at one and a half, and you can do what Chad's doing. There's no dishonor in taking the money line, like you want to play it as safe as possible, because last week that game could have easily landed on one. Like I know, Chad was just like me doing that crazy math where it's like, oh my god, they missed a two pointer, They're gonna kick a field goal. This is gonna land on one. There's no dishonor in taking the money line there. But to me, I don't have fear and taking the one and a half of mahomes. We've just seen super Bowl in its entire history, it's only had one game landing between three. So we're talking a long history of the Super Bowl and only one time in its history is ever landing between three. So I'm good with taking the risks taking the one and a half. I just I believe in this Chiefs team, believe in the number, and I know I hate to do it. I hate to see my team lose, and I know it's gonna hurt, But you just have to trust Mahmes and Andy Reid and Spags. Like you just said, in the spot. They always find a way. You just gotta throw the numbers out here. People. It's so tough to do. But to me, there's only one side to take, and is the Chiefs.

Is Chiefs minus one and a half yours, Sigmon says, when.

Is Chiefs minus one and a half yours, Sigmon says, when.

We do, I'll do it. Yeah, let's I mean, we only have so many options, right, there's like two. There's only a side in the total here. So I'm with you, Yes, Simon says, give me, gimme Chiefs minus one and a half.

We do, I'll do it. Yeah, let's I mean, we only have so many options, right, there's like two. There's only a side in the total here. So I'm with you, Yes, Simon says, give me, gimme Chiefs minus one and a half.

What's interesting to me about this game? You know, we can talk a little bit about the matchup. I'm excited that we're on the same side, as is customary.

What's interesting to me about this game? You know, we can talk a little bit about the matchup. I'm excited that we're on the same side, as is customary.

Honestly, I wanted to go against that. I was looking for a reason that bad.

Honestly, I wanted to go against that. I was looking for a reason that bad.

You knew that, you knew that I love thee and I was. I was honestly nervous. Like I thought about it yesterday, I thought about it this morning. I'm like, man, I hope Simon's on my side. I know he's doing a lot of work the past couple of days, Like, I know he's gonna I knew you were gonna have the Eagles probably at minus two in this game. If I had to bet that's where you're number landed right.

You knew that, you knew that I love thee and I was. I was honestly nervous. Like I thought about it yesterday, I thought about it this morning. I'm like, man, I hope Simon's on my side. I know he's doing a lot of work the past couple of days, Like, I know he's gonna I knew you were gonna have the Eagles probably at minus two in this game. If I had to bet that's where you're number landed right.

No, actually, and it just Eagles minus one so one O. Thankly that is value. That means you're getting two and a half points.

No, actually, and it just Eagles minus one so one O. Thankly that is value. That means you're getting two and a half points.

I think you're getting two and a half points of value according to everybody's model, which is why people are betting it.

I think you're getting two and a half points of value according to everybody's model, which is why people are betting it.

But guy Sean Shan's got it at Chiefs minus one and a half. So Sean Sean definitely respects the chief side. But yeah, most most pros I've talked to, but which I just said is true, most of them are minus one, minus one and a half on the Eagles, even some have minus two. So a lot of respect on the Eagle side.

But guy Sean Shan's got it at Chiefs minus one and a half. So Sean Sean definitely respects the chief side. But yeah, most most pros I've talked to, but which I just said is true, most of them are minus one, minus one and a half on the Eagles, even some have minus two. So a lot of respect on the Eagle side.

Other than my just firm belief in Andy Reid, Steve Spegnolo, Patrick Mahomes and getting them is basically to win the game. A couple things about the matchup that stuck out to me that we're in favor of the Eagles that I think are being underrepresented potentially in the market or when it comes to evaluating the Chiefs. Everyone talks about the Eagles rush and it is dominant.

Other than my just firm belief in Andy Reid, Steve Spegnolo, Patrick Mahomes and getting them is basically to win the game. A couple things about the matchup that stuck out to me that we're in favor of the Eagles that I think are being underrepresented potentially in the market or when it comes to evaluating the Chiefs. Everyone talks about the Eagles rush and it is dominant.

Jalen Carter is unreal.

Jalen Carter is unreal.

Brian Baldinger, who I like to follow, he had a video clip of Jalen Carter some guy trying to undercut him and Jalen Carter flipped like literally just hurtled the guy on the way to the quarterback. It was like, the guy is such a freaking nature. But one thing that I think the Chiefs have done which a lot of people have recognized but not talked enough about. They're not a downfield passing team. And because their offensive line is just not very good right now, like Mahomes worst QBI he's ever had in his career, sacked more than he's ever been in his career. The brilliance of Andy Reid is that he's changed the offense and so there's such a quick passing offense now fifty six percent of their receiving yards came on yards after the catch. So part of me feels like some of the matchup advantages that the Eagles have, both as a coverage unit and as a rush unit are mitigated because of the way the Chiefs play offense.

Brian Baldinger, who I like to follow, he had a video clip of Jalen Carter some guy trying to undercut him and Jalen Carter flipped like literally just hurtled the guy on the way to the quarterback. It was like, the guy is such a freaking nature. But one thing that I think the Chiefs have done which a lot of people have recognized but not talked enough about. They're not a downfield passing team. And because their offensive line is just not very good right now, like Mahomes worst QBI he's ever had in his career, sacked more than he's ever been in his career. The brilliance of Andy Reid is that he's changed the offense and so there's such a quick passing offense now fifty six percent of their receiving yards came on yards after the catch. So part of me feels like some of the matchup advantages that the Eagles have, both as a coverage unit and as a rush unit are mitigated because of the way the Chiefs play offense.

Now agree or disagree.

Now agree or disagree.

Agree, and I do want to give flowers to Nolan Smith Junior, who you know, Jade Daniels is one of the best athletes I've ever seen, and he somehow was able to catch him a few times in that game, and you know he is a difference maker coming off that edge. Like we talked about that Eagles. If there's a defense that can stop him, my homes this is the defense. Like this is in my lifetime, the best defense Eagles I've ever had, Like the how he hit on every rookie pick and then basically got an All Pro for three million, four million dollars in the middle of the field at linebacker and braun So it's it's all come together, like this is the perfect thing. But I think Chad knows where I'm coming from where my life, Like he says, there was hesitation last year in the Super Bowl. As soon as that Ravens game ended. I didn't stop betting that Chiefs number until that that Friday, Like.

Agree, and I do want to give flowers to Nolan Smith Junior, who you know, Jade Daniels is one of the best athletes I've ever seen, and he somehow was able to catch him a few times in that game, and you know he is a difference maker coming off that edge. Like we talked about that Eagles. If there's a defense that can stop him, my homes this is the defense. Like this is in my lifetime, the best defense Eagles I've ever had, Like the how he hit on every rookie pick and then basically got an All Pro for three million, four million dollars in the middle of the field at linebacker and braun So it's it's all come together, like this is the perfect thing. But I think Chad knows where I'm coming from where my life, Like he says, there was hesitation last year in the Super Bowl. As soon as that Ravens game ended. I didn't stop betting that Chiefs number until that that Friday, Like.

Hes that was my hesitation.

Hes that was my hesitation.

Yeah, I would say, like I was like, the fucking numbers don't matter. That was the best Ravens team that was perfectly set up to beat that chief That Chiefs team was not good last year, Like this Chiefs team. People are like, well this team isn't that good. They fucking are. This is a better Chiefs team at any point than they were last year. You know, it's just what we talk about. It's the game within the game that Mahomes plays with Andy Reid, and it's like it's it's so tough because it's like this is this Eagles team is perfectly lined up to beat this team, like they have no weakness honestly, like like we joked about it, their biggest weakness is Hurts. Honestly, when you when you really do break it down, it's like, if Hurts doesn't show up, he's gonna need to make big time thirds in this game. They will lose this game because the running attack, even the receivers, they will be able to get open. I mean Matt Collins was able to get open last week. You think aj or smith A're gonna have issues getting open. No, like they're gonna be able to scheme it open. But yeah, when I really dive into it again, we didn't even talk to the total yet. Like that's another spot. I really love the Total. I love the under This does feel like this is going to be an ugly defensive type of game from both sides, and coming into it, the public is thinking the other way in my opinion, Like to me, I haven't really looked at it, but they're going to be hammering the over because the Eagles just put up fifty five points. Chiefs just had their highest scoring game of the year last week thirty two points. It's really that simple when you break it down, like the public overreacts to what they just saw, where historical data tells us teams that just like went crazy in the conference championship game tend to struggle in the Super Bowl, right because it's like you come off or playing a perfect game and it's going to feel different, right, every little thing. Like we talked about last week and Ochad thought the Eagles left a couple of players in the field. When I go back and watch it, they got so lucky in so many different ways, like even that opening touchdown, you know, Washington getting sucked in and triple you know, Bobby Wagner tripping over his own guy. Yeah, missing the tackle, Saqua, I'm breaking the tackles fluky like no one No one's like model is gonna be like, oh no, that should have been a touchdown. No, it shouldn't have. Like a lot of things need to break their way for all those points scored in that game. So yeah, like we were talking about right now when I feel like it's gonna be a low scoring, ugly, drag it out type of game once again favors Mahomes, Like, that's exactly what the Chiefs want to play. They've been living in that this whole season, just pulling people down in the mud, just making them try to wiggle their way out of it. And the Eagles they have, like I said, they have the team to do it. The one loss that really stuck out to me they had all year was that Josh Allen loss. I mean, I know it was way early in the season, but you saw how they can do it right with a mobile quarterback. That does give the Chiefs fits. Like that element of it is an issue to the Chiefs defense because there's so many different options you can run with it, and we saw it this past week. I mean, it was there for Josh Allen to steal it once again. Why because he's a mobile quarterback and they do struggle with so there are ways to do it. But I mean you can just tell like me and Chad, we just we've been burned, We've learned our lessons. We feel like we're in the moments of history. Don't overthink a right Chad. That's what I keep telling myself. Take chiefs at a great number, Mahomes. I mean, Chad knows these stats. I just want to read it again. I mean we've been talking all week. I know Evans might bring it up to on extended rest, Mahomes is thirty and four straight up in his career on eight plus days of rest. His only losses is one of them is two. Jalen hurts like it hurts, did do it one time? You're asking a lightning to strike twice here because it's only half four times Brady Matt Ryan Jalen hurts in O'Connell Mahomes. In the playoffs, his record Chad seventeen and three eighty five percent straight up. This man, we just it doesn't make sense. The only the only person he's behind. I love the staff from Evan is bart Starr, who's nine on one straight up in the playoffs. That's what we're talking here. People. It's like the greatest quarterback ever though.

Yeah, I would say, like I was like, the fucking numbers don't matter. That was the best Ravens team that was perfectly set up to beat that chief That Chiefs team was not good last year, Like this Chiefs team. People are like, well this team isn't that good. They fucking are. This is a better Chiefs team at any point than they were last year. You know, it's just what we talk about. It's the game within the game that Mahomes plays with Andy Reid, and it's like it's it's so tough because it's like this is this Eagles team is perfectly lined up to beat this team, like they have no weakness honestly, like like we joked about it, their biggest weakness is Hurts. Honestly, when you when you really do break it down, it's like, if Hurts doesn't show up, he's gonna need to make big time thirds in this game. They will lose this game because the running attack, even the receivers, they will be able to get open. I mean Matt Collins was able to get open last week. You think aj or smith A're gonna have issues getting open. No, like they're gonna be able to scheme it open. But yeah, when I really dive into it again, we didn't even talk to the total yet. Like that's another spot. I really love the Total. I love the under This does feel like this is going to be an ugly defensive type of game from both sides, and coming into it, the public is thinking the other way in my opinion, Like to me, I haven't really looked at it, but they're going to be hammering the over because the Eagles just put up fifty five points. Chiefs just had their highest scoring game of the year last week thirty two points. It's really that simple when you break it down, like the public overreacts to what they just saw, where historical data tells us teams that just like went crazy in the conference championship game tend to struggle in the Super Bowl, right because it's like you come off or playing a perfect game and it's going to feel different, right, every little thing. Like we talked about last week and Ochad thought the Eagles left a couple of players in the field. When I go back and watch it, they got so lucky in so many different ways, like even that opening touchdown, you know, Washington getting sucked in and triple you know, Bobby Wagner tripping over his own guy. Yeah, missing the tackle, Saqua, I'm breaking the tackles fluky like no one No one's like model is gonna be like, oh no, that should have been a touchdown. No, it shouldn't have. Like a lot of things need to break their way for all those points scored in that game. So yeah, like we were talking about right now when I feel like it's gonna be a low scoring, ugly, drag it out type of game once again favors Mahomes, Like, that's exactly what the Chiefs want to play. They've been living in that this whole season, just pulling people down in the mud, just making them try to wiggle their way out of it. And the Eagles they have, like I said, they have the team to do it. The one loss that really stuck out to me they had all year was that Josh Allen loss. I mean, I know it was way early in the season, but you saw how they can do it right with a mobile quarterback. That does give the Chiefs fits. Like that element of it is an issue to the Chiefs defense because there's so many different options you can run with it, and we saw it this past week. I mean, it was there for Josh Allen to steal it once again. Why because he's a mobile quarterback and they do struggle with so there are ways to do it. But I mean you can just tell like me and Chad, we just we've been burned, We've learned our lessons. We feel like we're in the moments of history. Don't overthink a right Chad. That's what I keep telling myself. Take chiefs at a great number, Mahomes. I mean, Chad knows these stats. I just want to read it again. I mean we've been talking all week. I know Evans might bring it up to on extended rest, Mahomes is thirty and four straight up in his career on eight plus days of rest. His only losses is one of them is two. Jalen hurts like it hurts, did do it one time? You're asking a lightning to strike twice here because it's only half four times Brady Matt Ryan Jalen hurts in O'Connell Mahomes. In the playoffs, his record Chad seventeen and three eighty five percent straight up. This man, we just it doesn't make sense. The only the only person he's behind. I love the staff from Evan is bart Starr, who's nine on one straight up in the playoffs. That's what we're talking here. People. It's like the greatest quarterback ever though.

They quarterback who's three pete he's chasing.

They quarterback who's three pete he's chasing.

I love it. Yeah, I don't even think of that. It's so true. So yeah, it's we know we're sitting in history. Chad's embraced it. I'm still fighting it because I am just to my dying breath being like, no, this can't be true. I can't see my favorite team lose two super Bowls in three years. But it does feel like we're living in history and this is Mahomes's moment. So yeah, Chad, I again. I'm trying to find a way people. I'm hoping to come in Thursday next week, on Tuesday and be like, oh, I found this. This is why you should take the egos at this point. But no, the number is gone the other ways. It's a good number on Mahomes at this point. The value is on Mahomes. Let's take Mahomes here together.

I love it. Yeah, I don't even think of that. It's so true. So yeah, it's we know we're sitting in history. Chad's embraced it. I'm still fighting it because I am just to my dying breath being like, no, this can't be true. I can't see my favorite team lose two super Bowls in three years. But it does feel like we're living in history and this is Mahomes's moment. So yeah, Chad, I again. I'm trying to find a way people. I'm hoping to come in Thursday next week, on Tuesday and be like, oh, I found this. This is why you should take the egos at this point. But no, the number is gone the other ways. It's a good number on Mahomes at this point. The value is on Mahomes. Let's take Mahomes here together.

Brother, Oh my god, I feel like maybe I'll be your best man again again.

Brother, Oh my god, I feel like maybe I'll be your best man again again.

You're back in time you find love.

You're back in time you find love.

By the time you find love, you'll have forgotten all about this. You'll have been in like so many stupors.

By the time you find love, you'll have forgotten all about this. You'll have been in like so many stupors.

By then you'll be like, I love Chad. We were on the Chiefs together.

By then you'll be like, I love Chad. We were on the Chiefs together.

Uh, all right, there's a couple more things that I have, but I feel like they played nicely into Uh. Doctor Nick and some of his regression analysis and.

Uh, all right, there's a couple more things that I have, but I feel like they played nicely into Uh. Doctor Nick and some of his regression analysis and.

The luck range and get some.

The luck range and get some.

Let's get let's get an actual mathematician in here. Reminder to everybody listening, our bet three six five Super Bowl prop contest is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your custom bet on Bet three six five, email your top Super Bowl prop ideas to podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Remember to adhere to state gaming commissions, which means every part of the bet is settled on the field of play on the field in the box score stuff. The winning submissions often have a clever name, like the Broctopus or the Millennium Falcon. Winner gets an Action Network prize, the chance to come onto the show talk to Me and Simon about it. The pick will go live on the bet three six y five website. We've received a lot already. Matt Mitchellis sent me a couple that are pretty funny, but submissions will stay open till Thursday. Podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Simon's one of my favorite parts of the show. Simon, as an experienced journalist and four time best selling author, I developed an expertise in posing questions to people, but recently I was on the receiving end of an incredible question from one of our listeners. A question I'd never pondered before. The listener asked me, Chad, how many roads must a man walk down before you can call him a man? A timeless and evocative question, and he gave me pause because I was struck like a thunderbolt by its simple solution. So I replied carefully and said, the answer is one, just one road, the road leading directly to the breathable, flexible comfort of our beloved sponsor, Tommy John. Don't trudge up and down the metaphorical highways and byways of the textile world when Tommy John provides a NonStop highway to the most comfortable essentials, the softest shirts, the highest quality underwear, everything you need to call yourself a man, and with a special sale for our listeners, walking this easy road just got easier. Join the comfortable men and women raving about Tommy John as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, my bff, future groom, when I'm your best man, why will you be wearing more Tommy John In twenty twenty.

Let's get let's get an actual mathematician in here. Reminder to everybody listening, our bet three six five Super Bowl prop contest is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your custom bet on Bet three six five, email your top Super Bowl prop ideas to podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Remember to adhere to state gaming commissions, which means every part of the bet is settled on the field of play on the field in the box score stuff. The winning submissions often have a clever name, like the Broctopus or the Millennium Falcon. Winner gets an Action Network prize, the chance to come onto the show talk to Me and Simon about it. The pick will go live on the bet three six y five website. We've received a lot already. Matt Mitchellis sent me a couple that are pretty funny, but submissions will stay open till Thursday. Podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Simon's one of my favorite parts of the show. Simon, as an experienced journalist and four time best selling author, I developed an expertise in posing questions to people, but recently I was on the receiving end of an incredible question from one of our listeners. A question I'd never pondered before. The listener asked me, Chad, how many roads must a man walk down before you can call him a man? A timeless and evocative question, and he gave me pause because I was struck like a thunderbolt by its simple solution. So I replied carefully and said, the answer is one, just one road, the road leading directly to the breathable, flexible comfort of our beloved sponsor, Tommy John. Don't trudge up and down the metaphorical highways and byways of the textile world when Tommy John provides a NonStop highway to the most comfortable essentials, the softest shirts, the highest quality underwear, everything you need to call yourself a man, and with a special sale for our listeners, walking this easy road just got easier. Join the comfortable men and women raving about Tommy John as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, my bff, future groom, when I'm your best man, why will you be wearing more Tommy John In twenty twenty.

Five, Because comfort is king Right.

Five, Because comfort is king Right.

Now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order. Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites when you get married. We are one hundred percent wearing Tommy John. Maybe there'll be a Tommy John Talks. I don't know, but we are at least we're going match in boxers. I can promise you that. Right now, listen, the stage is set for Super Bowl fifty nine and all the bets to come. That means now is the perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription. It's the only way to get real time pick alerts from me and Stuckey and Super Bowl propmaster Sean Kerner plus Nick Giffen, plus all the tools you need to turn a profit betting in twenty twenty five. Right now, new subscribers could get forty dollars off a year of Action Pro at Actionnetwork dot com slash s B. That's forty dollars off for the full year, so you'll be covered for the Super Bowl, March Madness, Baseball, NBA, and even next college football and NFL season.

Now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order. Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites when you get married. We are one hundred percent wearing Tommy John. Maybe there'll be a Tommy John Talks. I don't know, but we are at least we're going match in boxers. I can promise you that. Right now, listen, the stage is set for Super Bowl fifty nine and all the bets to come. That means now is the perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription. It's the only way to get real time pick alerts from me and Stuckey and Super Bowl propmaster Sean Kerner plus Nick Giffen, plus all the tools you need to turn a profit betting in twenty twenty five. Right now, new subscribers could get forty dollars off a year of Action Pro at Actionnetwork dot com slash s B. That's forty dollars off for the full year, so you'll be covered for the Super Bowl, March Madness, Baseball, NBA, and even next college football and NFL season.

Don't wait.

Don't wait.

Visit Actionnetwork dot com slash SB to get forty dollars off Action Pro. All right, let's bring in doctor Nick. Everyone knows Doctor Nick hosts bet what Happens. That is a great time to bet on big island games. There's no bigger island game than the super Bowl. I want to have Nick tell people what the advantage is. You've also seen Nick. I'm convinced me he'll be on the Super Bowl show. He crushes it with the luck rankings. Nick, welcome to the show. Immediately. Just tell people the advantages of halftime betting, how they can profit. It's my favorite show that we've produced at Action Network Bell.

Visit Actionnetwork dot com slash SB to get forty dollars off Action Pro. All right, let's bring in doctor Nick. Everyone knows Doctor Nick hosts bet what Happens. That is a great time to bet on big island games. There's no bigger island game than the super Bowl. I want to have Nick tell people what the advantage is. You've also seen Nick. I'm convinced me he'll be on the Super Bowl show. He crushes it with the luck rankings. Nick, welcome to the show. Immediately. Just tell people the advantages of halftime betting, how they can profit. It's my favorite show that we've produced at Action Network Bell.

What Happens Live is awesome.

What Happens Live is awesome.

We usually go from the two minute warning through halftime and we're just firing off live bets. I have built a proprietary model which takes in and ingests Sean Kerner's pregame projections. Right, we have the most accurate projecting guy on the planet here takes us pregame projections and then translates those into in game projections and we.

We usually go from the two minute warning through halftime and we're just firing off live bets. I have built a proprietary model which takes in and ingests Sean Kerner's pregame projections. Right, we have the most accurate projecting guy on the planet here takes us pregame projections and then translates those into in game projections and we.

Just fire off bets.

Just fire off bets.

Whenever the model shows value, it looks at the current game state, score, different what the money line is, all that stuff, and kind of figures out how things will develop for the rest of the game. The number of expected plays each team's.

Whenever the model shows value, it looks at the current game state, score, different what the money line is, all that stuff, and kind of figures out how things will develop for the rest of the game. The number of expected plays each team's.

Pass run ratio, et cetera.

Pass run ratio, et cetera.

And we've bet and I have to say this, I'm really excited because we have found this year in the Action Network Discord. So if you want to join Discord dot gg slash Action Network in the Action Network Discord, ma'be doing these bet what Happens live shows. We have found an edge that has hit in one hundred percent of the playoff games and has hit like eighty percent year and my model shows it's about a seventy five eighty percent bet every time we bet it and the books have not adjusted.

And we've bet and I have to say this, I'm really excited because we have found this year in the Action Network Discord. So if you want to join Discord dot gg slash Action Network in the Action Network Discord, ma'be doing these bet what Happens live shows. We have found an edge that has hit in one hundred percent of the playoff games and has hit like eighty percent year and my model shows it's about a seventy five eighty percent bet every time we bet it and the books have not adjusted.

I'm not going to say what it is because we can't be.

I'm not going to say what it is because we can't be.

Given away, you know, edges like that and ruining it for the biggest game of the year.

Given away, you know, edges like that and ruining it for the biggest game of the year.

But everybody in the Discord knows it. And if you want.

But everybody in the Discord knows it. And if you want.

To, you know, exploit that live edge with us, make sure you join the disc Board. We're gonna try to explore some other ways as well to air bet what Happens live outside the Discord as well, but definitely join the Action Network Discord.

To, you know, exploit that live edge with us, make sure you join the disc Board. We're gonna try to explore some other ways as well to air bet what Happens live outside the Discord as well, but definitely join the Action Network Discord.

Speaking of Super Bowl props, a lot of people have been asking when we're dropping our prop episodes featuring Nick, Sean Kerner, Chris Raybond, Grant Niffer. Because these have hit at an obscene rate these last few Super Bowls, we're doing those as two sets of Wednesday live shows. Try to catch these live as these numbers get crushed as soon as any of these guys talk about them. We go live in the Action Network YouTube channel and on Twitter at Action Network HQ Wednesday the twenty ninth and Wednesday February fifth. Each time we'll do a part one at four pm Eastern with Doctor Nick and Grant, and then part two with Raybound and Kerner at six pm. Marcter Calendars super Bowl Props Live shows next two Wednesdays, four pm, six pm. Action Network YouTube page, Action Network HQ on Twitter. All right, here's my question for you before we get into all your luck ranking stuff, which crushed by the way, like totals, we're twenty one to twelve. You know, over the course of the season, there's a lot of turnover regression that I think is possible in this game. The Eagles have a plus ten turnover margin heading into the Super Bowl through the playoffs. That's the best in I think twenty five years. On Sunday, the Chiefs, while they've won eight games prior without a turnover. They had one turnover, the Bills had none. The Bills, according to Mike count, had six turnover worthy plays, two new interceptions from Josh Allen in the first series, and they had four fumbles they were covered on their own. Do you think there is some turnover regression here that could play a factor in the game.

Speaking of Super Bowl props, a lot of people have been asking when we're dropping our prop episodes featuring Nick, Sean Kerner, Chris Raybond, Grant Niffer. Because these have hit at an obscene rate these last few Super Bowls, we're doing those as two sets of Wednesday live shows. Try to catch these live as these numbers get crushed as soon as any of these guys talk about them. We go live in the Action Network YouTube channel and on Twitter at Action Network HQ Wednesday the twenty ninth and Wednesday February fifth. Each time we'll do a part one at four pm Eastern with Doctor Nick and Grant, and then part two with Raybound and Kerner at six pm. Marcter Calendars super Bowl Props Live shows next two Wednesdays, four pm, six pm. Action Network YouTube page, Action Network HQ on Twitter. All right, here's my question for you before we get into all your luck ranking stuff, which crushed by the way, like totals, we're twenty one to twelve. You know, over the course of the season, there's a lot of turnover regression that I think is possible in this game. The Eagles have a plus ten turnover margin heading into the Super Bowl through the playoffs. That's the best in I think twenty five years. On Sunday, the Chiefs, while they've won eight games prior without a turnover. They had one turnover, the Bills had none. The Bills, according to Mike count, had six turnover worthy plays, two new interceptions from Josh Allen in the first series, and they had four fumbles they were covered on their own. Do you think there is some turnover regression here that could play a factor in the game.

Yeah, I mean it's certainly possible, right, And one of the things is you do make your own luck. So a lot of what the Eagles did, I think it was every fumble that hit the ground against the Commanders, the Eagles rec So you know, there is an element if you make your own luck. But when the ball hits the ground, it can bounce in funny ways, So there certainly is an element of luck as well that you aren't creating. But look, I mean, if you're forcing fumbles, you're bound to recover.

Yeah, I mean it's certainly possible, right, And one of the things is you do make your own luck. So a lot of what the Eagles did, I think it was every fumble that hit the ground against the Commanders, the Eagles rec So you know, there is an element if you make your own luck. But when the ball hits the ground, it can bounce in funny ways, So there certainly is an element of luck as well that you aren't creating. But look, I mean, if you're forcing fumbles, you're bound to recover.

Some of those fumbles.

Some of those fumbles.

So if the Eagles keep forcing fumbles, that'll bode well for them because they're still going to recover, you know, around sixty percent of them or so. I think the team that forces a fumble tends to recover around sixty percent long term. But that said, yeah, certainly Eagles came in over expectation versus the Commanders, Chiefs came in under turnover expectation versus the Bills. But that's also, you know, just each team's most recent game, so you got to kind of look at the longer term statistics and probably a little bit of luck favoring the Eagles, so they've been a little bit more lucky than the Chiefs and the turnover department. But you know, to me, it's not a super major factor in luck specifically for this game.

So if the Eagles keep forcing fumbles, that'll bode well for them because they're still going to recover, you know, around sixty percent of them or so. I think the team that forces a fumble tends to recover around sixty percent long term. But that said, yeah, certainly Eagles came in over expectation versus the Commanders, Chiefs came in under turnover expectation versus the Bills. But that's also, you know, just each team's most recent game, so you got to kind of look at the longer term statistics and probably a little bit of luck favoring the Eagles, so they've been a little bit more lucky than the Chiefs and the turnover department. But you know, to me, it's not a super major factor in luck specifically for this game.

How did the luck rankings grade this game?

How did the luck rankings grade this game?

Yeah, this is an interesting one the luck rankings. These two teams are one spot apart in our luck rankings, so there's no luck edge on the side and the luck total and in the playoffs, anything above a one and a quarter below minus one and a quarter would be a luckover or a luck under. Well, this game is minus zero point one, so no.

Yeah, this is an interesting one the luck rankings. These two teams are one spot apart in our luck rankings, so there's no luck edge on the side and the luck total and in the playoffs, anything above a one and a quarter below minus one and a quarter would be a luckover or a luck under. Well, this game is minus zero point one, so no.

Luck on either. And here's the funny thing. Two years ago when these teams.

Luck on either. And here's the funny thing. Two years ago when these teams.

Played, they were one place apart and the luck total was minus zero point one. It is a repeat of twenty twenty two, which is incredible. I couldn't believe it when I saw that.

Played, they were one place apart and the luck total was minus zero point one. It is a repeat of twenty twenty two, which is incredible. I couldn't believe it when I saw that.

Well Son and to me, that kind of plays into your theory exactly, like this is a grinded out last team with the ball potentially wins, and we're kind of just betting that the Chiefs will be the last ones with the ball.

Well Son and to me, that kind of plays into your theory exactly, like this is a grinded out last team with the ball potentially wins, and we're kind of just betting that the Chiefs will be the last ones with the ball.

I guess yeah.

I guess yeah.

And it kind of scares of what Nick talking about because that last time they played in the Super Bowl, obviously that was an easy over. That game went way over. So to me, what he talked about, though, touch a litt bit on that I expect from both teams is red zone regression. Right there both have just been scoring a ton of touchdowns in the red zone, where the Eagles are not that team, right, They're usually a team that it does struggle once they get in the red zone. This past season, right this playoffs have been much better. And on the flip side, the Chiefs, it's been insane how that much they've just been scoring in the red zone, right, They've not been taking the threes that they have that they did during the regular season. So to me, the turn of regression is a little scary because that could make for some short fields and we are talking about that, but I think it playcates to both these teams that they're just both quarterbacks are so smart protecting the ball that they know that if they don't turn the ball over, they're probably gonna win the game, right if they just put their team in the best position. So that is kind of the weird part with this Eagles team is that I do think they've been really lucky with the turnovers. But like Nick said, they've been making their own looks right. They've been going after the ball. They've been punching the ball out, not just in that snow game, but in that last game against Washington on the flip side, Washington was trying to punch the ball and they just couldn't do it right. That's the type of thing it is where it's like, you know, when you have an all pro like Saquon, you can punch all you want. The dude is so strong that boy ain't coming out. So I agree they had been lucky, but it's definitely the players that have in the field that make that luck.