This week, the White House confirmed Australia would not be exempt from President Donald Trump's tariffs on U.S. imports. It comes after months of uncertainty and efforts by the Albanese Government to negotiate an exemption for Australian steel and aluminium. However, the 25% import tax officially came into effect yesterday afternoon. The Federal Government has vowed to continue pushing for an exemption. The tariffs followed a tumultuous start to the week for the U.S. economy and global markets after Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a U.S. recession. Today, we’ll explain what you need to know about the latesct from the U.S. and what it all means for Australia's economy
Hosts: Emma Gillespie and Billi FitzSimons
Producer: Orla Maher
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Already and this is the daily This is the daily.
Ohs oh, now it makes sense.
Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Thursday, the thirteenth of March.
I'm emma, I'm billy.
Yesterday, most of us here in Australia woke up to the news that US President Donald Trump is going ahead with harsh tariffs on all countries who import their goods to.
The US, with no exceptions.
It comes after months of uncertainty and efforts by the Australian government to negotiate an exemption on Ossie steel and aluminium. However, the twenty five percent import tax officially came into effect yesterday afternoon, and that came after what was already a tumultuous week for the US economy and global markets, after Donald Trump refused to rule out.
The possibility of a US recession.
Today, today we are going to explain everything you need to know about what's going on with the US economy and these tariffs.
This week, okay, and so as you've set up for us, it has been a big week for the economy, especially for the share market. There were big drops on Wall Street in the US and we also felt that here in Australia. Do you want to just take us back to the weekend when this kind of all started to unravel. What happened?
Yes, So it all started on Sunday night when Donald Trump did an interview with Fox News, the US news outlet, and that kind of triggered this first wave of volatility that we saw this week. He was asked directly by a Fox reporter if he's expecting the US to enter a recession this year, and here's what he said.
I hate to predict things like that.
There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. Okay, So he refused to rule out the possibility of a recession, refuse to kind of speculate whether or not there would be one. And obviously a lot of people were watching that hoping that he would say with certainty that there wouldn't be one. He didn't do that. Do I just give us a quick refresher though, on what exactly is a recession?
Yes, So when you hear the term recession, it's referring to a period of economic decline, which is usually marked by things like reduced consumer spending and job losses. So us the customers spending less money, and more unemployed people. Most economists do have a clear definition for recession, and that includes there being two consecutive three month periods or quarters of a country's gross domestic product going backwards. So there are a number of key indicators that can tell us a recession is around the corner, and those indicators are things like market volatility, consumer attitudes, widespread unemployment, and increased rates of people not being able to pay back there credit card bills or their home loans. So when all of those things are bubbling away, that's a pretty good indication that we're headed for a recession.
Okay, so obviously not great.
Not what anyone wants is their cause for concern that there could be a recession in the US.
So interestingly, most indicators on the US economy actually look pretty strong when we consider those kind of key recession indicators. So hiring and job creation rates are looking good. Economists aren't worried about those things. There are some indicators though, that there could be an increase in kind of consumer pessimism. So consumer confidence figures have dropped, stock markets have been fluctuating, and that could all lead to less spending, and that's something that could result in recession, but a number of major financial institutions release probability ratings to give us an indication on what they're experts and what their analysis says about the likelihood of a recession. And we've seen some reevaluated predictions out of the US. So, for example, JP Morgan now believes a recession is forty percent likely and Goldman Sachs puts it at a twenty percent chance for the US.
Right, And there's also all of this added uncertainty with the tarifsts that we'll get into. Is that also kind of why people are speculating, because with uncertainty comes speculation that we don't know obviously what's going to happen.
Yeah, whenever there is financial uncertainty insecurity about the future, when people don't feel confident about the road ahead, that can lead to these kind of big drops on stock markets. People panic, they might sell their shares. The fluctuations kind of add to these conversations around oh dear or something bigger around the corner.
And that's kind of what happened right after this interview with Fox right exactly.
So stock markets pretty much immediately crashed, firstly in the US, but then around the world. In including here in Australia. So on Tuesday, the ASX plummeted by more than fifty billion dollars and that was directly linked to uncertainty over the US economy, all from you know, a few words said by the president of the world's largest economy. Tech stocks saw the biggest drops, and that was in the US as well as here on the ASX and Tesla stocks interestingly slipped by fifteen percent on Monday, and shares in the ev company, the Elon Musk owned company, have actually halved in value since December, so pretty consistent downturn for a company like Tesla.
And fun fact, after this terrible drop from Tesla on the share market, Trump and Elon Masks stood in front of the White House with their Tesla cars trying to kind of do this pr stunt to say, you know, look, the President is still using Tesla's so so should.
All of us. Apparently was still going strong.
They say, okay, So this fluctuation across stock markets is one part of the story. But there's this other huge policy from the Trump administration that we have flagged, and it's one we have been talking about for quite a while now. Since Trump became the president, and that is tariffs. Do you want to first remind us what that term means?
What are tariffs? Yes?
So, put really simply, tariffs are a type of import tax. So when foreign made goods are brought into another country, they are subject to fees or duties. Those fees or duties are known as tariffs. So governments might use tariffs as a means to protect local manufacturing. So this is because these taxes make imported goods more expensive.
So rather than absorb the cost of.
Input fees on foreign goods, consumers might think, oh, I'll buy a locally made product because it's cheaper or it doesn't have those taxes on it. The flip side of that is, generally speaking, customers might not always have the option to purchase domestic goods. You know, depending on what those goods are, they might not be a local market and you know, that means that they will usually end up being the hardest hit by tariffs. Customers usually end up absorbing them. So specifically, these US tariffs could make things more expensive for American consumers. They might not necessarily impact Australian exports immediately unless demand for goods ends up shifting that is more concerning, but we can get into the specifics of that a little bit later.
Okay, So my understanding is that the thinking behind Trump introducing these tariffs is for more things to be made in the US. He basically wants everything to be made in the US and for customers to only be buying things that were made in the US.
Yes, he said in strong terms that he wants manufacturers to bring their manufacturing businesses to US shores to make those products there in America. Interestingly, as well, tariffs are often used to sanction other countries as a sort of political device in trade wars, and we have seen that play out with the US and China and heavy tariffs that it's imposed on them for different reasons than that kind of local manufacturing angle.
And so what else you just mentioned China? I know there were also ones on Canada and Mexico. What else has happened in the lead up to this week before we get into what actually has happened this week.
Yes, So since Trump was elected in November, he was inaugurated in January, and even before then, he has been promising sweeping import tariffs aimed at, like we've said, bolstering US manufacturing also aimed at strengthening the US border. This was a policy area that he was really focused on in his first term as president, so it's not a particularly shocking policy area for Trump to be so heavily invested in. But in the first few weeks off his current term, Trump did announce a number of tariffs which included goods imported from Mexico and Canada, and that had to do with managing the US borders. We heard a lot of commentary at the time about illegal drug importations, illegal immigration. But then Trump also announced tariffs against China. The Mexico Canada tariffs, there was a lot of stop start, back and forth. There were pauses, negotiations about you know how they would end up working, but they did recently come into effect. And then last month Trump announced that the US would impose twenty five percent tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. That would be on all countries that import those products to the US and that includes Australia. Now since then, Australia has been really focused on avoiding that specific tariff.
And steel and aluminium in Australia is really important. It's one of our biggest exports. Do you want to just explain more kind of the importance of steel and aluminium to Australia, because it's not something that we learn about, really yeah, no, and as you study it.
Unless you study it, unless you work in the field of steel and aluminium, or aluminum.
As America would call it.
Australia does export hundreds of millions of dollars of steel and aluminium.
To the US every year.
Steel is used in things like you know, car manufacturing, heavy industries, construction, and aluminium is used also in car manufacturing as well as in household items pots, pans, foil, so they're kind of very versatile exports. According to government data, the US was the world's second largest steel importer in twenty twenty three, and its aluminium imports have actually increased by twenty five percent since twenty fifteen. Now, last year, the US imported around four hundred million US dollars of Australian steel and around two hundred and seventy million dollars of Australian aluminium. That might sound like a lot of money, but actually in the broader context of the US, Australia isn't a major exporter of aluminium to America Compared to other trading partners. So, for example, in the year of February, the US imported three million tons of aluminium from Canada and three hundred and fifty thousand tons from the UAE. Australia exported ninety thousand tons during that time, So overall about ten percent of our steel and aluminium goes to America. So it's not nothing, but there are other markets and other ways to kind of diversify our exports of those goods.
Okay, So Trump announced these tariffs. Then Anthony Albanesi, Australia's Prime minister, has a call with Trump to try to see if Australia specifically can get an exemption. Albanzi was quite positive about that call. But what has happened since that has meant that there will now be these tariffs and there will be no exemption.
Yes, So you might remember that phone call, and President Trump had spoken to US media said that he thought Albanzi was a very nice man, that the exemption for Australia was under consideration. Also at that time, Trump told reporters in the White House that Australia was one of the only countries where the US has a trade surplus. Now what that means is Australia buys more American goods than the US buys from Australia. Trump signed a series of executive orders last month following that call. He did say no countries would be exempt, but he was asked directly about Australia and said he was giving it great consideration. However, as we know, that has since fallen through and at the time a senior trade advisor to Trump his name is Pete Navarro, he had accused Australia of quote killing the American aluminium market. Navarro was actually a key figure in Trump's similar tariffs in twenty eighteen, and those are the ones that former PM Malcolm Turnbull actually successfully negotiated to avoid. But in short, it appears this time that Australia's efforts to secure an exemption now have seemingly failed. So the White House confirmed on Tuesday that the tariffs would be going ahead without exception. We heard from White House spokeswoman Caroline Leave. She told the ABC that Trump considered the request and considered against it. To use her words, Peter Navarro, who worked with Trump and Turnbull in twenty eighteen, he said that every country that was exempt from the tariffs last time abused those exemptions. So speaking to the ABC, Navarro said, the lesson from the first Trump tariffs has been quote is that exemptions to anybody a counterproductive. They don't work for the American people. When we were kind enough as a country to make those gestures to our friends, he said, they bit the hand that fed them, and that's not going to happen again.
Okay, those are pretty definitive words. We do know though that, you know, when we look at Mexico and Canada and the tariffs that were meant to be introduced there, they were briefly stopped. Like you said, there was that stop start, So we do know that there is a possibility that Trump could change his mind.
But let's just.
Say that these tariffs are here to stay. How would it meaningfully impact Australia and what would the economic fallout be?
Yeah, I think it's important to note that the initial impact on local manufacturing would be minor, So all the experts are telling us that the effect straightaway is going to be pretty negligible. But as we discussed at the start of the episode, tariffs are more likely going to impact consumers on the other end, Uncertainty then kind of comes from how other markets will react. So there are sweeping tariffs on so many countries as we've discussed, and bigger exporters like China might resort to a trade tactic known as dumping. Now, this is when a product gets exported to a foreign market at a lower price than it costs domestically. So, for example, if an Aussie steel manufacturer sells their stell to the US for less than they charge Australian customers, part of this dumping also means decreased demand in a market. So if demand for steel in the US drops, some foreign businesses might flood other markets like Australia with excess stock. That can lead to more competition and that can have negative effects on local businesses. The federal government actually has an Anti Dumping Commission aimed at protecting local manufacturers, so there are some regulatory measures in place.
But the other.
Significant concern here is the potential for a global trade war. The University of Sydney School of Economics put this better than I could.
They posted an interesting explainer.
On this whole issue, which said a trade war quote could disrupt supply chains and weaken manufacturing activity across East and Southeast Asia. Given that Japan, Korea and China are key export destinations for Australia, such disruptions could have significant economic consequences. We've also spoken previously to economist Greg Jericho and he's explained to The Daily I was before that if the Chinese economy is doing poorly, then the Australian economy generally follows suits. So unfortunately, we're in this kind of place global or in this unique kind of Asia Pacific region, in this position unfortunately where if other big key players like China, Japan, etc. Are hit or impacted, then you know, we tend to also experience negative fallouts in our own economy.
Yeah.
It's a real example of the globalized world that we live in and the impact of globalization on economy. Exactly, something happens to one country, it literally impacts all countries. How has the Australian federal government responded to this news?
So we heard from Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi yesterday. He did a press conference and addressed this decision by Trump. He had very clear disappointment over that decision and here is a bit of what he said.
Such a decision by the Trump administration is entirely unjustified. Australia will continue working hard for a different outcome and discussions with the Trump administration. Ongoing grafts and escalating trade tensions are a form of economic self harm. They are paid by the consumers. This is why Australia will not be imposing reciprocal tariffs on the United States. Such a course of action would only push up prices for Australian consumers and increase inflation.
So from Albanese's words yesterday, we're expecting the government to continue to put forward that very strong case for an exemption. As Albanezi said, he also noted, quote we will continue to point out that the United States interests are not served by today's decision, and in an interview with Sky, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the tariffs were quote not the way to treat a friend and partner. So the word from the Australian government really leaning into the kind of alliance and the decades long friendship between the two nations and what about the coalition So Billy, of course, there is an election coming up. We are heading to the polls sooner or later, and we're probably going to hear a lot more about this over the coming weeks from the Coalition, the Opposition has criticized Albanzi quite strongly for how he's handled this tariff debacle and these negotiations. They've kind of suggested that he didn't do enough, didn't work hard enough with Trump, that he should have actually flown to the White House for an in person.
Discussion or negotiation.
The Coalition has also called into question Kevin Rudd. Now he is Australia's ambassador to the US. You might remember there was a bit of politicking around whether or not he was the right person for the job after some old comments that he made that were very critical of Trump emerged. Trump had sort of hit back at that before he was elected, said that Kevin Rudd was nasty, and the Coalition now we're kind of asking, well, is Kevin Rudd the right person to be representing Australia in these discussions? He's our man on the ground. Is he equipped to deal with the Trump administration? But Anthony Alberizi backed in Rudd yesterday. During that address, the PM described him as a quote very effective ambassador.
Such a complex topic. I think we got through a lot today, a very effective podcast.
Well, thank you for listening, if you're still awake, I really appreciate it. Of course.
No, there's nothing that excites us small than economics a mare, and thank you so much for listening to this episode of The Daily os. We'll be back again this afternoon with your evening headlines. Until then, have a great day. My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda Bungelung Chalcuttin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island and nations.
We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.