Colin’s top takes of the week!
First, he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out”!
They start with the draft evaluation for Shedeur Sanders and Colin argues that regardless of where he gets drafted, he’ll likely be the third best quarterback in his division and whether that analysis gets factored into his draft position (4:15). They dissect the Giants roster after signing Russell Wilson and whether it would make sense to pass on Shedeur and draft a different position of need (8:30).
John explains why a “high floor” isn’t really a thing when it comes to drafting whereas “high ceiling” is VERY real (12:45).
Finally, they look at the over/under win totals and make their predictions for who will over/under perform their expectations in Vegas. (16:00).
Then he’s joined by Jason Timpf, host of “Hoops Tonight”!
They react to LeBron’s comments on Pat McAfee’s show comparing NBA eras and explain why it’s completely pointless because of how much the game has changed (33:00)
They debate whether a dominant regular season will translate into playoff success for a young OKC Thunder roster, and whether they have a weakness that could sink them in a series (36:30).
Finally, they discuss whether there’s anything the NBA can do to avoid tanking when transformational talent is so easy to identify early and incentivizes teams to tank (42:00).
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
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As I've told you, Fubo is my favorite way to watch live sports. Flying from Chicago to LA this past week, I'm all over Fubo, NFL, NBA, Baseball, college sports tournament, Baseball's here, Masters next week. You know, sometimes you're at one of your kids games, you're at a family function, you just want you want that phone and you want Fubo next to you. Just go to FuboTV dot com slash colin Fubo FuboTV dot com slash column, Get fifty dollars off two months of Fubo. I have been using it for years. I'm addicted to it. It is the first place I check when I'm out but want to keep attached and informed on sports. And they've got more than sports. But check it out. FuboTV dot Com slash column fifty bucks off two months Fubo TV. All right, John Middlikoff, former NFL scout, you know him, you love him the podcast three and out, loves his golf as well. As we get ready for the Masters that's around the corner. But we've got some NFL stuff to talk about. So we got into this discussion on the show today and I said you know, obviously, when the NFL had to write almost a you know, a billion dollar check for CTE, the game got safer really fast. And you can't touch quarterbacks. You already can't go high or at the wrong angle on anybody but a running back going forward. That's why it's really makes sense to have two and three running backs in the rotation, because it's the last position you can really clobber from any angle at any time. And I said, because it's become such an offensive league, there's only one way to win with exceptional offensive quarterback play. And I said, here's the thing about Shnur Sanders. If you're Cleveland, if you draft him, he is at best the third best quarterback in that division. He'll never be as good as Burrow. He's not that kind of prospect. And he's not Lamar Jackson. If the Steelers hit on a quarterback in the next two years, he could be four. He's not an exceptional athlete, not an exceptional arm and if, for instance, the Giants wanted him, he's not going to be Jayden Daniels and he's not special athletically like Jalen Hurts. He may be better than Dak, but again, he would be third best quarterback in a division. And so my takeaway and Shaudeur Sanders is do teams think like that? It only takes one coach to love bow Nicks, right like Sean Payton loved him because there's a little bit of a doppelganger with Drew Brees. But when I look at Shaduur and I like him, I can't argue that Burrow Lamar Chaduur is three. I can't argue that Jalen and Jaden Daniels Shaduur is three. And those kind of quarterbacks are infrequent playoff quarterbacks.
Do scouts think like that? Yeah? I mean these conversations definitely come up, not only right now but throughout the fall when your scouts are going in the problem with that mindset, you would never draft a quarterback because who the hell is ever going to be better than Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow? Right or you know you're never gonna how are you ever gonna find like a twenty three year old Matt Stafford. More than likely you're not gonna draft this high again. And you know two names that I hear come up a lot or definitely one, and I'll use another name is Andy Dalton, and I would throw Derek Carr in there as well. You know, I think people that say you know that Kype skill set, historically Shador Sanders, those guys went picked thirty five and picked thirty six, I think ten years ago. He's going in the second round and people are very excited about him. Jimmy Garofflow as well. At the end of the second round. Andy Dalton has made one hundred and sixty eight starts in the NFL, and he was in a division with a fantastic Ravens defense and Roethlisberger in his prime and they were going to the playoffs all the time. Carr took a dysfunctional Raider team twice to the playoffs. So if Shador is in that mold, it's really on the organization. And if you're the Browns, Andrew Berry's pretty good GM, Stefanski's pretty good coach. They got a lot of talent on the team. So if he can just become that Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Yeah, you're not gonna beat you know, if Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow are on, they're gonna beat you. But you still have a lot of other games throughout the season. So it's if you can build the team well enough, can't you compete to make the playoffs. I mean, they're drafting two over a hole right now, right And granted that's because I mean Deshaun became one of the worst quarterbacks we've ever seen. Their team just fell apart this year. But more than likely they're not gonna draft this high again. Now. Is it an quote unquote overdraft. Yeah, but the reason Mac Jones and Daniel Jones and those type guys became disastrous. You couldn't even function with them as your starting quarterback, right, Andy Dalton. For seven straight years with the Bengals, they did a good job. You could just every year you went in like, we're gonna win ten plus games. The Browns would die to do that. Their owner, who can be a little off the sometimes I give him credit for making the comment the other day. You never hear that, you know, admitting we still all the guy ninety million dollars. It's a disaster. It's like, well, yeah, that's true. Well yeah, they never say that he is spending a lot of cash, like the salary caps different than cash being spent Jeffrey Lury talked about that. I saw today they are spending more. I think they've spent more money over the last four years in cash than any other team in the league. It's like well over a billion dollars. So he is not in this to lose. But the betting markets have Abdul Carter as the heavy favorite to be the number two overall pick, so maybe they're thinking shad or Sanders. What the hell's the difference of Shador Sanders. I know, you like like Riley Leonard's of the world and those type guys. We can get a guy like that in the second or third round, and maybe he can be like our cousins or Dak. They also talk and think like that, so maybe they go, I'd rather have Riley Leonard or Kyle McCord and Abdul Carter than Shador Sanders and whoever else we would get in the second round. So I think you're doing a lot of those conversations.
There's a lot of people saying that Jackson Dart has a better arm than Shaduur Sanders, so you might as well just wait and draft Jackson Dart, although I would say he's not nearly as accurate as Shaudur Sanders. An accuracy to me is like a real thing, maybe the most important thing. Jalen Milrose mechanical. I think he has to fold the right hands or he could just be Anthony Richards at two point zero.
Yeah.
You know, I've said Kyle McCord at Syracuse. I take him in the second round and feel pretty good. I will say this though, that you know, people say it's not a very good draft, and I'll tell you I look at certain teams that need skill players, like the New York Giants. If they got Travis Hunter with their first pick and then their second pick got is it Trayvon Henderson from Ohio State, Yeah, with Molik Neighbors. I look at that and I think to myself, Oh, that's a great draft for the New York Giants because I like their head coach as an offensive coach, and I think Russell will actually be a better version of the Pittsburgh Russell because I think Mike Tomlins culture is years behind Brian Dable offensively. Is there a team in this draft that you look at and think, you know, it's not a great draft, but what they need running back, tight end, defensive tackle, there's a surplus of in this draft.
Well, I think if you look at the Giants, if you're Brian day Ball, people go, why would they sign both those two guys? Because Brian da Ball's coaching for his job, Shador Sanders does not help him at all in twenty twenty five. So he can take two quarterbacks, let the cream rise out of the two and go back and forth. He would go all in on Travis Hunter. He would want players that help him win immediately. So if you tell me they get Travis Hunter and they're starting running back or starting tight end or just another more explosive player, yeah, I mean I think the Giants are just much more feasible. You watch him at the end of the year last year when they had some injuries. It's like that this team has a lot of parallels with the Patriots, right, just no talent. What's going on here? But all of a sudden you get Molik Neighbors, which he has concussion issues. You know, you get another concussion. That's a little scary, But there is no disputing his physical gifts. I mean, he's a freak. I mean that's one you look back and this is the hard part about the draft. There is no such thing as a high floor because any player might not work out. It doesn't matter how your floor is determined once you get in the NFL. All I heard last year was like, Marvin Harrison's floor is so Highlik's Malik could be boom or bust. And then you watch You're like, you don't think the Arizona Cardinals regret not going Maleak Neighbors over Marvin Harrison Junior, because they do and the Giants benefited from them making that choice. And I think we use that term a lot. Ceilings are real, like certain guys have higher ceilings. Cam Ward's ceiling is obviously higher than Shad or Sanders, but a floor like we've seen all sorts of players not work out in the end, you never know, and we always played game a couple of years later. Should have taken him? Should have taken him? No one knew that information as we sit here a month away from the draft. If we would have known Richard Sherman and George Kittle and these guys exist in the fifth round, they would have been top twenty picks. So it is a little bit of a crapshooting. I think it gets more difficult in a class like this, which obviously there are gonna be a lot of really good players that come out of this draft, but no one feels that confident on a lot of these guys. You know, it's like, well, how high is Mason Graham's ceiling? Or it's like what's his name? The LSU tackle, It's like, well, yeah, arm length kind of matters at left tackle, but what if in five years he just becomes an All Pro guard? But you don't take an all Pro guard probably at five overall, right, you'd rather have a tackle. So there's just a lot of unknown which I think a lot of these the scouting community is just there's like, yeah, it's kind of a coin flip year.
In your years of being a scout. I mean, you have your top one hundred and FIFTFTY players like and you also have the red players that you won't draft either personnel, personality problems, character issues or injuries. Are there any dramatic moves with two to three weeks to go in the draft process when in your experience, yeah, I.
Would say you know the information most of these teams, you know, with the owners meeting, so all the gms and coaches are flying home if not last night today, and by either the end of the week or first thing next week, all your scouts come in and the scouts and your you know, your personnel people, some of your other executives have been on campuses over the last month, right meeting with coaches other personnel at those schools. Certain guys you don't have to worry about anything off the field, like they're just it's just perfect, you know Andrew lux Or, But there are a ton of those guys in the draft where it's like you don't even But there are some guys maybe not legalot like they've been arrested or you know, crazy bad things, but they're just like how much does he really like football? Which might be a non negotiable in the organize, like the Ravens don't draft many people that aren't addicted to football watch them play over the last twenty years. So you're just like, maybe you've heard some stuff and you bring that information back to your GM, to your head coach, and that can sway stuff. So it's not like a dramatic unless someone gets in trouble and that becomes public knowledge. But it's basic things like yeah, I've heard some things that this guy might not be quite what we thought as a person. Cause I think when you know a lot of these people, when you talk to coaches and executives, most people fail, especially draft in the first couple of rounds, like they're meeting a lot of the requirements of height, weight, speed, played it sweet schools. It's usually the person that fails focus, screw around, not dialed in, doesn't really like football. Football is not like baseball where you just get to play every day, or basketball where you play three times a week. You practice basically five days a week and you play once and you only hit seventeen of those games. For the majority of the league. You don't go to the player, and then you get OTAs you get training camp, it's a lot of sitting in a room watching tape, getting yelled at, getting up early, going to you know, going to bed sore. It's not you know, Ray Lewis, you pay me Monday through Saturday. Sundays are for free. There's a lot to that. It's why the best players typically are football addicts at all the positions, right the JJ Watts, the Trent Williams that you just go around, George Kittle, you know, at every Travis Kelcey forever. All the patriotype guys, the human being, but you got to be careful with overvaluing that because you do need to be able to play. And that's I think Belichick got in trouble at the end of his career. So it's it's hard. I mean, you run a company hiring people. You've had a lot of people on your show for years before even the volume. It's you're dealing with human beings with a lot of pressure, with a very public job. It's we all shit on it when guys miss, and it's fair sometimes, but it's also like, this is really really difficult to, you know, pick a guy. I hear this a lot. Why can't the Chiefs find a tackle? Well, it's like, guys, they've draft thirty one or thirty second every single year. They don't have that much cap space. And I don't know if you've checked free agency. Usually Hall of Fame tackles don't hit free agency. It's like, what do you want them to do? Like Lane Johnson isn't usually sitting there at pick thirty two, And when you're drafting at pick thirty two, you're also drafting at the end of the second round. And the third round. It's it's much easier to draft when you're the Titans and you dictate every round than it is when you're the Bills or the Ravens or the Chiefs.
So the you know the overs and unders are coming out, So I want us to give the audience have some fun. Here. Two overs and two unders and all start this. All the odds are provided by Draft King Sportsbook. So I'm going to give you an under, then you give me an under, and I'll give you another under, and then we'll do two fa overs. So my first under is the Chiefs at eleven and a half. Okay, Joe Tooney was by far and away the most had the most dexterity of any of their offensive linemen.
He's gone.
They are now crossing their fingers on a backup left tackle from San Francisco. They were eleven and zero in one possession games, right and now the division is much better. The coaching and the quarterback play Bo Nixon year two Gino Smith if they get a running back in the first round. Geno Smith has a one zero six passer rating in Seattle on play action passing like if you give him a run game Gino's very good on third and two, right, He's very good with play action passing, second to five, third and two, third and three. So I don't think I would take the under. Now, maybe they just go eleven and six, but I think the division is going to be improved, the quarterback play between Gino second year bo Again. I thought last year there were offensive line injuries with the Chargers. My guess is they'll be healthier. Okay, what say you give me an give me an under?
Do you say ten and a half on that number?
It's eleven and a half. DraftKings has the Chiefs at eleven and a half. I would bet the.
Under got you. They've won over twelve games. I think every year Mahomes has started beside one. Yeah, but I hear you. It's you can have a good year. I mean they won a super Bowl winning eleven I would say an under. I like I do think the forty nine ers who are to the Rams won that division and were really good and honestly, I mean a couple of plays away from potentially beating the Eagles, and who knows, they might end up in the super Bowl and win it. They wanted a ten and seven, right, so, and they're a team going through a lot of transition. So the forty nine ers won six games, though they were in a lot of them. They kind of melted at the end in a lot of them. So I actually think I think a lot of people are gonna think they're gonna win like six or seven games. I think they're gonna be better than people think. But once you start getting over ten, like ten and a half, like you could win nine or ten games, be that seven seed, hell, compete to win the division and have a good season. So I think the days, you know, definitely this season that's gonna be very dependent on young rookie players.
Yeah, they have twelve draft picks.
Yeah, I mean that's we've seen the Rams the last couple of years. I don't know exactly, they've been a fantastic team at the end of the year, that they're not winning twelve games. So I think the Niners probably more likely to win nine or ten games. I don't think that division is just gonna be you know, the Cardinals are just a tough game every time you play them. Obviously, the Rams are good in Seattle going through a little bit of a transitional period, but they're head coach. I think they're pretty well run operation.
Yeah, listen, they're one of my unders too at ten and a half Seattle. Yeah, they tried to get green Law back from Denver. They did not want to lose Ufunga. Okay, those were two big defensive losses. And let's be honest, John, the Bosa's get hurt when Boso was off the field. Last year, they were not a very good defense. They were really inconsistent. So now Whufungus gone, green Law's gone, Bosa will miss the stretch and it's not a great draft. So I don't think there's an impact player defensively. Maybe if they got like Will Johnson at corner from Michigan, I think that would be a really really you'd have to be happy with that. But yeah, I think I have San Francisco as an under. So I have Kansas City, you have San Francisco, I have San Francisco. Give me another under.
I would say, I think there's a chance Miami is like the one of the worst teams in the NFL. Like, it would not shock me if you tell me. As you and I are sitting here doing a pre draft a couple of weeks Miami's in the mix. Maybe they don't have the number one overall pick, but I could see him being like the giants of the Patriots draft in three or four. It would not shock me to see them struggle to win four or five games. I think they're gonna be terrible. I thought that last year, and they just obviously when two was on the field, they're more functional. It would not surprise me at all if this Tyreek situation doesn't go away and he ends up playing for another team this year. I don't know if that trade would happen during the draft. I know they've pushed back against that, maybe at the end of training camp. But I just expect Miami to implode. I really do. I mean, I don't really like the Jets that much either, but like even last year, the Jets do have a lot of good players. Oh absolutely. I just don't think Miami has that many good players, and they are one concussion away from all of a sudden, Zach Wilson's are starting quarterback.
Yes, okay, I'll give you an over. I think Brian Callahan's a good coach. I think Will Levis is a really really bad NFL quarterback. I don't think he was a great college quarterback. And so I look at the over under on Tennessee and you know it's it's five and a half. Some have had it at six and a half. I think they clear that bar easily. First of all, cam Ward's a playmaker, and nobody's got real film on him. He didn't do a lot of straight pocket stuff in college. It was a lot of backyard stuff. And I think the league will take a while. And they did this with Jaden Daniels. It took a while to decode him. People were bo Nicks. You'd not quite sure what he is. It's a weak division. The Jags could be bad, the Colts would be bad. Houston should be pretty good, but not great. I think I'm going to take the Titans over. I think it's a pretty week schedule. I think cam Ward is one of the only players in the draft that can equal wins. I think people think Callahan's a pretty good coach, and Ellahan didn't just lack trust in will Levis. If you listened to his postgame comments after losses, he lost them three games straight out, and you watched his body language, he almost resented that will Levis was getting in the way of wins, and so I Titans to me earn over.
Yeah, I don't think people. You know, we talk a lot about the Browns because of Watson, because Deshaun Watson's quarterback play. By the month then no one was watching the Titans. Their quarterback play was like historically poor, I mean the turnovers and sacks he was taking. It was. Their defense was actually pretty good, yes, And like any team with a pretty good defense, when your offense is that crappy by the time you get to like mid November, they can't maintain that level of play because they're on the field so much. So if their offense is just solid, I'm with you. I mean, he's got his dad there coaching offensive line. Massive upgrade just based on talent alone. I would say this, if you look at Vrabel, like the linebacker version of Harbaugh, you know, wants to play defense, wants to run the ball. Former players, just guys that just win. I think the Patriots we're right up there with the Bears as one of the worst coach teams you will ever see. Yes, last season, why couldn't they go nine to eight this year? So go, the Jets are going to be awful. I think the Dolphins are going to be worse. Yep, listen to Bills, who cares even if they sweep you. I could see the Patriots winning eight or nine games.
Listen, they were seven and a half DraftKings. They are now up to eight and a half. So the Sharks, it looks like we're all over the Patriots. So New England was one of my overs. And I said the other day on the air, I said, I think Vrabel from Giad Mayo is worth three points. I think Drake May is worth another point based on sophomore season. And I think it's reasonable assume one hundred and ninety million in free agency and eight to nine draft picks is worth one and a half to two points. So if they're just five and a half points to six points better. And again you're talking about between the draft and free agency, like eight to nine new starters and a couple of high end starters. You're talking about Drake May potentially with a Travis Hunter. You're talking about the worst coach team to probably one of the seven to eight to nine best coach teams. That's five and a half to six points. They were three and six in one possession games with a rookie quarterback. If that's just six and three, you don't have to go nine to zero. This is an eight to nine win team. And again the Jets a bit lost. I agree with you, Miami's a mess. So I think New England's in play.
I would say the other team would be speaking of Harbaugh, the Chargers. You know, last year, I just didn't pull the trigger and he did exactly what he Yes, they were the five seed. Well this year it's nine and a half, and everyone always gets off the scent with them. During like free agency, Jim is not going to trade for DK Metcalf and give one hundred fifty million dollars. He didn't do it last year, He's not going to do it this year. He won't do it next year. You know what he will do though, in like the second round, all of a sudden, he will draft his starting tight end for the next seven years and in the third round find a defensive tackle that everyone's going, hey, this guy's not that sexy who will just be a starter for him for a long time. Then you watch the season and you just go, God, their team is just physical and good. He has a really talented quarterback. Why couldn't they win twelve games. I mean they're over under right now is nine and a half. I think they are a lock. I mean, Jim Harbaugh is now coach in the NFL five years and made the playoffs and four of them. So I don't know if they can overtake the Chiefs, but it wouldn't shock me if it gets a little closer. And don't let free agency fool you. He's never gonna play and swimming that into the pool. They are never gonna do that. But you know, you've talked about this huge advantage for Jim. All these kids coming in the draft. He's recruited them all, especially the good ones, so he's gonna know these guys. He's gonna be a huge point of difference for him. I would expect them to have a good draft. His GM I think is pretty good. I mean, look at last year, It's like, did they pass on Malik Davers? I don't know. They just got their starting tackle for the next decade. So I think the Chargers they've fooled me is the wrong word. I just didn't have the kahonas just because I was like, I don't know if their roster is quite good. Enough, they're not gonna have great ride receivers. He typically never does, and he always wins. He won a national championship, he went to a Super Bowl like he's not exactly gonna have Jerry Rice in his prime, and it's gonna work out just fine.
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Well, you're going to hear.
Him more regularly now over the next seven weeks, Jason Timp, host of Hoops Tonight. You know that there was a comment I thought was interesting. Lebron was on a podcast or a show and he talked about, you know, Jannis would have scored two hundred and fifty points back in the seventies, And I laughed because I thought no, because they'd fould him and he can't hit free throws, so it wouldn't work. But You know, it's interesting because I grew up with the seventies basketball and I loved it, and I do think sometimes, you know, the players since in nineteen seventy three have grown half an inch. The NBA was big and athletic then. Now nutrition's better, travels better, But it was I didn't love Lebron saying that I was like Lebron. Wilt and Jerry West played in the seventies, Doctor j played in the seventies. Bill Walton played in the seventies. I don't know why it didn't bother me, but it was one of those I heard it and I thought, no, honest, now, you honest man have averaged forty but he can't shoot like he can't shoot. What did you make of that comment and your thoughts about jenneral comparisons.
Well, for that exact reason, like you mentioned the size, if it was not just size back then, spacing was poor back then. Yeah, and in general, like Giannis would have been running into a lot of bodies. That said, I firmly believe Janness would average forty forty five if you played in that era, just simply because it would be like a man amongst boys in terms of the athletes that he'd be competing with. I just a couple things. I don't see any point in comparing era to era in general. I mean, like we talked about the seventies like it was not that long ago as fifty years ago. It's a half century ago. And in general, there's just been so many changes schematically, there's been so many changes in player development and the skill. Like you know, what's always so funny to me when you go back and you watch basketball players in the sixties and seventies, the jump shots.
Are all weird looking.
Yeah, And one of the reasons why the jump shots are all weird looking is they didn't get to go on YouTube or go turn on the TV and watch their favorite players play when they were kids. They taught themselves out of shoot. Everyone today kind of shoots more or less the same type of jump shot, and some people look weird, but most people should.
Swings, by the way, the unique golf swing is over.
Exactly because now it's been optimized. We've optimized it. Now you reach your hand in to the cookie jar, you start from the legs, You no wasted motion, and we don't want to hit you in the shot, you know, And so It's one of those things where like we've just perfected this sport in so many different ways, and you know, one of the things that I dislike about it. And it kind of goes back to what we talked about when we were talking about Stephen A. Smith a couple of weeks ago. But when you I don't believe in stooping down to that level you, by the way, are you have a saying that you've used over the years that I've loved. You said, I can have an opinion, and you can have an opinion on my opinion. I don't need to have an opinion on your opinion of my opinion, which, by the way, is like a foundational thing that I lean on and I'm when I'm doing what I do too. And like one of the big things that I look at there is like, Okay, Lebron, you're playing basketball. Okay, these old guys are trashing your era. But what good does it do to then step in and then be disrespectful to their era? That doesn't serve a purpose. In my opinion, it kind of is it's stooping to that level. It doesn't forward the conversation. And like, from that same point, I feel like Lebron is just shouldn't be the guy sending that type of message that he's trying to send. That said, like, I think in general, Lebron's just sick and tired of getting criticized by like the Mjklan, the throwback like the old league was better type of plan, and I think he's just sick of it, and I think he's acting out.
You know, It's interesting. The other day I was saying about Okay, see, I'm like, I know they're gonna win into some series.
I know they're really good.
I'm not doubting that brilliant GM. I don't think SGA will quite get that whistle in the postseason, but he'll get a whistle if chet Holnggrun's healthy. They've got some offensive options. I do worry about their young players in big road games. You know, everything changes. No sport in our country changes more from regular season to postseason. I mean, I'm watching here today. You got to fight in the NBA Missesota's coaches, and you're getting feisty now in playoff seating, and it's like it changes the game. It's an outside of the COVID year men win in the playoffs. Young men can do really well in the regular season. But the one thing about Oklahoma City Tom Tolbert texted me when I was talking about him, He goes, they lead the NBA and assists, or they lead the NBA in creating turnovers but have the fewest turnovers. They just are really, really efficient. They don't turn it over and they force turnovers. Is there like, I don't think Golden State could beat okay See. I think Golden State would be Houston. I don't do Houston shooting's better today than three months ago. I still don't trust them in a big playoff spot. Oklahoma City to me is they're like Cleveland the last couple years. They're gonna win playoff series. They're just too good. They got too many good players, too good of a coach. Go deep dive on Oklahoma City. And because I look at them and I think they have two or three things that really matter. They're well coached, A dominant score so they know laden games in a playoff game, here's where the ball goes. That is so important. The great teams all have that. Denver had it with Jokic, and generally, like the Spurs, you'll have a second guy in Tony Parker. If Duncan gets doubled, it's great to have too. And if Holme Groun's healthy, I trust him at a big spot hitting a shot. He's a great player. So they have an identifiable star and a co star. They're well coached, they play real defense. They're not they're young, but they're not inexperienced, like these guys have played in big colleges, big big moments. I think they're a Western Conference finals team.
I don't.
I mean, I would take the Lakers over them, and I don't feel like I'm being a homer. I would just take Lebron and Luca and the possessions and a half and a game. What do you think their journey looks like in the postseason.
So their defense, I'm one hundred percent sold on will perform really well. The only team that I'm worried about them defensively against is the Lakers because Lebron and Luca attacking their smaller perimeter players. The Oklahoma City's defense is nearly perfectly constructed. They're incredibly fast on the perimeter, and Mark Dagenol has built their scheme towards ford aggression and passing lanes to try to build to force turnovers. It's optimized towards the type of personnel they have. They also have rim protection in chet Holmgren, which is a very important part of success in the playoffs. And then they have a couple of different types of defenders that are especially valuable. So, for instance, Lou Dort is one of the very best guys in the league that you can throw against a big star forward, and like, there's just so many of them in the Western Conference, whether it's Luca and Lebron, or it's literally Kawhi Leonard, or it's Kevin Durant or whoever it is your planing, there's all these star forwards. He's a great option. Isaiah Hartenstein kind of come to the surface as like a guy they use for the big power players, and he's had a lot of.
Sis him defensively, no question.
Yeah.
His ability to defend in a bunch of different types of coverages, but specifically to handle the big, strong, bullyball types of players has been a huge asset to that Thunder defense. The only weakness I see in the Thunder defense is size as an aggregate thing, particularly on the perimeter, and it manifests in bad defensive rebounding, which has been a consistent thing they've struggled with over the years. And then that's where I can see some vulnerability where it's like, Okay, you put lou dord on Luca Great, who's guarding Lebron. There's just nobody else on the roster that can make Lebron feel really all that uncomfortable. So I think that's what we're saying. The offensive end is where I see some cracks in the armor, in the sense that they thrive in transition off the strength of their defense. But what happens if there's a team that takes really good care of the basketball and controls pace and keeps okay, see trapped in the half court and it's a big, high leverage playoff series where you need j Dubb and Chet and dort In these guys to be effective offensively. And again, I want to be clear, I'm not trying to nitpick here, because we are. I should be clear we are nitpicking here because this is the one seed in the Western Conference. As I agree with you, I would be stunned if they didn't make it to the conference finals. But in the conference finals context, if they faced a Denver or a Lakers. I think it's at least worth mentioning that those teams would be dramatically more experienced and dramatically bigger on the perimeter. Yeah, one last thing I'll say about it. They do rely heavily on Shay Gilders Alexander pull up shooting when things go south for them offensively in those situations. I like a team of a bunch of six' eight sixty nine guys that have long arms to, contest and that's something WHERE i could see that being a valuable of. Value SO i think they deserve to be the. Favorite but, Yeah i'm with you to where like IF i saw The lakers in The thunder about to play in A Western conference, finals it'd be really hard for me to not pick.
AWAY i Think Adam silver is a good. COMMISSIONER i thought WHEN i had him, ON i thought he overreacted a little To Kevin durant to The. Warriors and my take, is, Well otani came to The. Dodgers it's been great For, otani great for The, dodgers great For, fox great for. Baseball people like, trades people like stars and big. Brands, Harbottom, michigan.
There was no.
Downside, yeah, Yeah michigan was gonna throttle people and you'd have more blowouts than The big. Ten so what and so they overreacted and they you, know they've now created this environment, where you, know eight. Rooms it's. Hard it's, like you can't you'll never duplicate unless you hit on every draft pick for four, years you'll never duplicate The celtics roster, like it's just you. Can't you can't have eight good. Players it doesn't work that. Way and my take is people like. Trades they don't mind. Dynasties And Kevin durant was bound to not get along With Draymond. Green so it wasn't going to be an eight year. Run it was three. Years they wore each other, out it Was shaq And. Kobe it was bound not to work.
Forever But.
I've talked about this, before is that there are certain unsolvable. Things you can go to a. THERAPIST i can go to a. Therapist there's a basic foundational PERSONALITY i have based on my childhood that you're not going to. CHANGE i can get, better BUT i am WHAT i. Am and, saying you, know change is hard when you want help and want to change it's impossible if you. Don't so we are kind of at our core sort of what we. Are AND i think there are certain things you can't get away from the violence in football OR. Ufc you can't get away from the lack of urgency in. Baseball AND i don't think you can avoid tanking because and the reason being is because in, basketball and this is not true with other. Sports in, basketball you could identify at thirteen years Old Kobe Lebron. Wemby The spurs went on a three year mission to Get. Wemby THEY i saw that that's that's not the way it works in. Football Lamar jackson we were arguing after he was, drafted can he play? Quarterback you, Know mahomes couldn't win in. College Josh allen is overrated and wild in basketball men and. Women freshman year in high, school it's defined that player is different That yukon girl that dominates sixth grade. Basketball it's, like, oh that's the best sixth grade basketball player we've ever. Seen so and my take is basketball the ability to spot transformational talent so. Early it's not a singular year. Tank people see. It they don't have to re sign. Players they can move off players that THE nba should just Be, like, listen if if there's a great player every year and a different team gets the great, player it's unavoidable and it's not terrible for the. League Like Cooper flag probably Saves. CHARLOTTE i mean, literally if he goes, there it's, like, okay, Now LaMelo Ball Cooper, flag that's a, Watch like that's a watch on. Television my take is THE nba spent so much time paralyzed by tanking and. Trades it's like football. Violence just just do the best you. Can you can't avoid.
It what say? You?
YEAH i LIKE i like that you you say it's an unavoidable piece of. It i'd say the same thing about the super teams and the willingness of players to try to partner up in a one team becoming so powerful that they present a talent mismatch to everyone in. League to your point About, boston like this is POST kd And. Steph it happened, again and you know how it. Happened the league at large Undervalued Drew holiday and Chrisops. Porzingis and that's not On Brad. Stevens that's Not brad stevens. Fault that's the other twenty nine GM's fault that they were, like Sure brad wants to pay For chris tops let. It, well, okay well now he's a. Problem that's like now they have five thirty million dollars. Players AND i also just generally think, That, LIKE i mean to your point that there's there's five six teams this year that have a really good chance to, win even With boston being the way that they, Are so, LIKE i don't THINK i think it makes for interesting storylines as far as the tanking piece. Goes it's even more unavoidable when you factor in just basic, stuff which is, like if it's games sixty five and we don't have a chance to make it to the, PLAYOFFS i shouldn't be playing my. VETS i should be playing my young.
Players.
Yeah so different than if you're, like, hey you know, WHAT i don't need to See Andy dalton start in week. Fifteen i'd rather see my third round picks get a chance to go out there and see what he can. Do let him get the, reps let him learn how to, press and so at a certain, point like even if you disincentivized it through the, draft you would never be able to stop a team from looking at the situation and going this season's, over we need to give our young guys the, keys and that's going to lead to a lesser basketball. PRODUCT i would say that generally, speaking the basketball guys will reward the teams and the franchises that play serious, basketball meaning like you'll See okac did this a couple years ago where it's, like, yeah they're playing their younger, players they're load Managing, shay but they're also teaching those kids to play damn good.
Basket The chicago right now is playing their.
Arsenal, yeah that is a that is a. Foundation What chicago is doing right now is a foundational part to any hope they have of being good in the. Future if you practice playing bad, basketball you'll be a bad basketball. Team and so the WAY i look at it is, like to your, point you'll never be able to stop tanking because it's it's impossible to stop teams from even prioritizing younger players. Minutes but, inevitably organizations behaving like losers tend to remain. Losers and organization like here go The kings, again they had that one, Season but it's like it turns out that even a really good year From Dearreon fox and uh and From Malik monk and From Demona. Sabonis is not enough to overcome, organization no. Incompetence it's, like at the end of the, day you can't stop bad from being, bad so stop trying to legislate it. Out if that makes.
Sense, YEAH i MEAN i look at teams Like utah AND i know their record isn't, good BUT i love THEIR. GM i think they have an excellent young coach and they play, hard and they're just going to get better with all those draft. Picks they're probably three years Behind. Oka, see so if they Land Cooper, flag AND i think they have the best percentage now they're. Tied If utah Got Cooper, flag that's a playoff team potentially in the. Year, like that's a really good basketball team, obviously If wemby got him In San. Antonio but it's LIKE i look at it AND i think If washington Got cooper, FLAG i feel so bad For Cooper. Flag If utah Got Cooper, flag to your, Point i'd be like that kid hit a home. Run he's going to do really really. Well no immediate. Pressure Danny, ainge great young, coach nice little supporting. Players they just don't have a guy.
To love him next To Walker kessler. Too, Yeah Walker kessler is really a nice.
Player in, fact The lakers were interested in him about Trade.
DeLine if they would have got, HIM i would have been talking very reckless on your.
Show he's a good. Player the volume