The Chuck Toddcast is back! If you’re looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversations, you’ve come to the right place. The Chuck Toddcast goes beyond the headlines—talking with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real conversations about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Trailer

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/119a0249-c411-4e34-9d78-b33200139d40/transcript

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Chuck Todd opens by previewing Mark Zandi's sobering economic forecast from this episode and arrives at a simple, devastating conclusion: every single policy decision Trump has made has made the economy worse, tax refunds have already been gobbled up by inflation, and the math guarantees voters will feel even worse by the midterms — meaning Republicans on the ballot should be furious with the president, and those in swing districts have no choice but to start distancing themselves from his policies now. But the real heat in this episode comes from his analysis of Trump's trip to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, which he frames as the diplomatic equivalent of going hat in hand. He argues there's simply no winning a trade war with China, that scrapping the TPP and the JCPOA will go down as two of the most colossal strategic mistakes of the modern era, and that Trump's combined Iran and China policies have somehow managed to strengthen both adversaries simultaneously — to the point that his foreign policy decisions are starting to make him look, in Chuck’s words, like a Manchurian candidate. The world is now beginning to view the United States itself as the global boogeyman, and Trump's presidency is doing damage to America's long-term standing that will take a generation to repair. The brutal irony, he notes, is that Trump now needs more from China than China needs from America: China is the only country with real leverage over Iran, defenders of Taiwanese independence are quietly terrified that Trump could trade them away for an economic off-ramp, and Xi gets to sit across the table from a desperate American president whose negotiating position keeps eroding by the day. 

 

Then, Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.

 

The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin. 

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Mark Zandi paints a sobering picture about state of the economy

02:30 Every Trump policy decision has made has made the economy worse

03:45 Tax refunds have been gobbled up by inflation

04:15 The economy will only feel worse to people by midterm elections

06:30 Republicans on the ballot should be furious with Trump

07:15 Republicans in swing areas have to distance from Trump policies

08:15 Trump in China to meet with Xi Jinping

09:00 There’s no winning a trade war with China

10:30 Getting rid of the TPP & JCPOA were colossal mistakes

11:30 Trump is losing the Iran war and strengthened Iran & China 

12:00 Trump’s policies make him look like a Manchurian candidate

12:30 The world is now starting to view the US as the boogeyman

13:15 Trump’s presidency has been terribly damaging long term to the US

14:30 We need more from China than they need from us

15:00 China is the only country that could lean on Iran

15:45 Defenders of Taiwan independence worried Trump could cave

16:45 Trump is desperate for Xi’s help

21:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast

21:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier

23:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices

23:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year

24:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden

25:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war

28:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now

28:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s

29:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession

30:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates

31:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s

31:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic

32:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board

32:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections

34:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin

35:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely

35:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading

37:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year

37:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck

38:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession

40:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election

41:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession

43:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus

44:30 The job market is still very weak

45:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that

46:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have

47:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard

48:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations

50:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet

50:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all

51:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?

52:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores

53:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices

54:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs

54:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day

55:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs?

56:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump

58:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit

1:00:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west

1:02:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading

1:03:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas

1:04:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?

1:06:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem

1:08:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place

1:08:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt

1:09:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us

1:10:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar

1:11:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas

1:13:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon 

1:16:15 Need a stiff drink after the interview with Mark Zandi

1:16:45 Ask Chuck

1:17:00 Alternative idea for formula to expand the house of representatives?

1:21:45 Will there be any impact from Susan Collins disclosing her tremors?

1:25:30 Thanks for interview with lawyers suing big tech, screen time is down

1:26:45 Could you argue that SCOTUS striking down New Deal policy was most impactful?

1:28:45 Is Dems gerrymandering more about deterrence and not pure hypocrisy?

1:33:15 If a justice steps down, who would Trump nominate. What would impacts be?

1:37:45 Thanks for the pod. It’s helped me get through long dialysis sessions

1:39:15 NBA playoffs reaction

Chuck Todd opens by previewing Mark Zandi's sobering economic forecast from this episode and arrives at a simple, devastating conclusion: every single policy decision Trump has made has made the economy worse, tax refunds have already been gobbled up by inflation, and the math guarantees voters will feel even worse by the midterms &mdash; meaning Republicans on the ballot should be furious with the president, and those in swing districts have no choice but to start distancing themselves from his policies now. But the real heat in this episode comes from his analysis of Trump's trip to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, which he frames as the diplomatic equivalent of going hat in hand. He argues there's simply no winning a trade war with China, that scrapping the TPP and the JCPOA will go down as two of the most colossal strategic mistakes of the modern era, and that Trump's combined Iran and China policies have somehow managed to strengthen both adversaries simultaneously &mdash; to the point that his foreign policy decisions are starting to make him look, in Chuck&rsquo;s words, like a Manchurian candidate. The world is now beginning to view the United States itself as the global boogeyman, and Trump's presidency is doing damage to America's long-term standing that will take a generation to repair. The brutal irony, he notes, is that Trump now needs more from China than China needs from America: China is the only country with real leverage over Iran, defenders of Taiwanese independence are quietly terrified that Trump could trade them away for an economic off-ramp, and Xi gets to sit across the table from a desperate American president whose negotiating position keeps eroding by the day.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Then, Mark Zandi &mdash; chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America &mdash; joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s &mdash; conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break &mdash; but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.
&nbsp;
The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously &mdash; meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off &mdash; with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this &mdash; it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants &mdash; reality is much harder to spin.&nbsp;
Finally, Chuck answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to <a href="https://shipstation.com/">https://ShipStation.com</a> and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com &amp; enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
01:00 Mark Zandi paints a sobering picture about state of the economy
02:30 Every Trump policy decision has made has made the economy worse
03:45 Tax refunds have been gobbled up by inflation
04:15 The economy will only feel worse to people by midterm elections
06:30 Republicans on the ballot should be furious with Trump
07:15 Republicans in swing areas have to distance from Trump policies
08:15 Trump in China to meet with Xi Jinping
09:00 There&rsquo;s no winning a trade war with China
10:30 Getting rid of the TPP &amp; JCPOA were colossal mistakes
11:30 Trump is losing the Iran war and strengthened Iran &amp; China&nbsp;
12:00 Trump&rsquo;s policies make him look like a Manchurian candidate
12:30 The world is now starting to view the US as the boogeyman
13:15 Trump&rsquo;s presidency has been terribly damaging long term to the US
14:30 We need more from China than they need from us
15:00 China is the only country that could lean on Iran
15:45 Defenders of Taiwan independence worried Trump could cave
16:45 Trump is desperate for Xi&rsquo;s help
21:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast
21:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly &amp; uglier
23:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices
23:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year
24:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden
25:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war
28:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now
28:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s
29:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession
30:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates
31:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s
31:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic
32:15 Rate cuts won&rsquo;t happen since they are set by a board
32:45 Economy won&rsquo;t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections
34:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin
35:15 We won&rsquo;t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely
35:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading
37:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year
37:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck
38:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession
40:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election
41:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we&rsquo;d be close to, or in a recession
43:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus
44:30 The job market is still very weak
45:30 With normal immigration we&rsquo;d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that
46:30 Data shows immigrants don&rsquo;t take jobs native born workers have
47:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state &amp; local government budgets hard
48:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations
50:00 Air travel hasn&rsquo;t fallen off due to economic conditions&hellip; yet
50:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn&rsquo;t fallen off at all
51:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?
52:30 Companies won&rsquo;t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores
53:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices
54:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs
54:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day
55:15 Who actually benefits from Trump&rsquo;s tariffs?
56:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump
58:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won&rsquo;t result in any political benefit
1:00:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south &amp; the west
1:02:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading
1:03:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas
1:04:15 America&rsquo;s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?
1:06:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem
1:08:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place
1:08:30 It&rsquo;s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt
1:09:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us
1:10:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar
1:11:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don&rsquo;t need new ideas
1:13:00 AI job displacement hasn&rsquo;t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon&nbsp;
1:16:15 Need a stiff drink after the interview with Mark Zandi
1:16:45 Ask Chuck
1:17:00 Alternative idea for formula to expand the house of representatives?
1:21:45 Will there be any impact from Susan Collins disclosing her tremors?
1:25:30 Thanks for interview with lawyers suing big tech, screen time is down
1:26:45 Could you argue that SCOTUS striking down New Deal policy was most impactful?
1:28:45 Is Dems gerrymandering more about deterrence and not pure hypocrisy?
1:33:15 If a justice steps down, who would Trump nominate. What would impacts be?
1:37:45 Thanks for the pod. It&rsquo;s helped me get through long dialysis sessions
1:39:15 NBA playoffs reaction

Full Episode - Trump Goes Hat In Hand To China + Trump’s Policies Have Been Disastrous For The American Economy

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/8837dc76-664d-4b92-9222-b4490160684d/transcript

Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.

 

The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier

02:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices

02:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year

03:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden

04:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war

07:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now

07:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s

08:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession

09:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates

10:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s

10:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic

11:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board

11:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections

13:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin

14:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely

14:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading

16:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year

16:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck

17:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession

19:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election

20:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession

22:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus

23:30 The job market is still very weak

24:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that

25:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have

26:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard

27:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations

29:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet

29:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all

30:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?

31:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores

32:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices

33:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs

33:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day

34:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs?

35:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump

37:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit

39:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west

41:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading

42:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas

43:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?

45:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem

47:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place

47:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt

48:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us

49:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar

50:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas

52:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon

Mark Zandi &mdash; chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America &mdash; joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s &mdash; conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break &mdash; but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic.
&nbsp;
The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously &mdash; meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off &mdash; with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this &mdash; it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants &mdash; reality is much harder to spin.&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast
00:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly &amp; uglier
02:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices
02:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year
03:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden
04:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war
07:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now
07:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s
08:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession
09:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates
10:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s
10:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic
11:15 Rate cuts won&rsquo;t happen since they are set by a board
11:45 Economy won&rsquo;t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections
13:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin
14:15 We won&rsquo;t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely
14:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading
16:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year
16:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck
17:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession
19:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election
20:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we&rsquo;d be close to, or in a recession
22:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus
23:30 The job market is still very weak
24:30 With normal immigration we&rsquo;d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that
25:30 Data shows immigrants don&rsquo;t take jobs native born workers have
26:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state &amp; local government budgets hard
27:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations
29:00 Air travel hasn&rsquo;t fallen off due to economic conditions&hellip; yet
29:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn&rsquo;t fallen off at all
30:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea?
31:30 Companies won&rsquo;t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores
32:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices
33:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs
33:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day
34:15 Who actually benefits from Trump&rsquo;s tariffs?
35:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump
37:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won&rsquo;t result in any political benefit
39:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south &amp; the west
41:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading
42:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas
43:15 America&rsquo;s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be?
45:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem
47:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place
47:30 It&rsquo;s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt
48:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us
49:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar
50:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don&rsquo;t need new ideas
52:00 AI job displacement hasn&rsquo;t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon

Interview Only w/ Mark Zandi - Trump’s Policies Have Been Disastrous For The American Economy

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/2bc63dd6-375b-4739-80fb-b4490150e45c/transcript

Chuck Todd opens with Trump getting visibly defensive with reporters over a brutal new inflation report — and argues the bad economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump's policies, with the president himself having zero answers for the data. He notes that AI investment is essentially the only thing propping up the economy, and that we are at least weeks away from the end of the Iran war. He warns we're only at the beginning of the inflation problem and that Democrats can simply point to Trump's broken promises of lower costs and no wars — they don't even need to make a "for" case, just a sustained "against" case — but cautions that despite all of this, Democrats still have a serious brand problem that no economic data alone will fix. He argues the failed Virginia redistricting effort exposed the deeper issue: Democrats talk like the resistance but are viewed as institutionalists, while Republicans still behave like raw partisans, and the rise of independent voters represents a fundamental protest against both available parties — something that should worry Democrats more than Republicans because the GOP has already shown a willingness to blow up the system. He makes a sweeping argument that until the last decade, Democrats were a reform-focused party, but the Trump era has pushed them into becoming defenders of institutions at exactly the moment when public trust in institutions had collapsed. He closes with observations from the Musk-Altman trial, which he says has been revealing about the personalities actually building AI — with OpenAI employees testifying to Altman's lying and the internal chaos, and so much tech ego on display that the public, already feeling burned by big tech, is only going to grow more skeptical. 

Finally Chuck reveals his bonus TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists, the top 5 2028 Democratic hopefuls who have run for president before, and the top who haven’t. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

 

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Trump gets defensive with reporters over bad inflation report

03:00 Economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump’s policies

03:45 Trump has zero answers for the bad state of the economy

04:45 Dow still hasn’t gotten back over 50k since Bondi’s viral moment

05:45 AI investment is the only thing propping up the economy

06:30 We are weeks away from the end of the Iran war… at minimum

07:45 Despite the bad economy, Democrats still have a brand problem

08:30 We are only at the beginning of the inflation problem

09:15 Dems can point to Trump breaking promise of lower costs & no wars

10:00 Dems don’t even have to make a “for” case, just an “against” case 

11:00 Another variable is what the political maps look like by the midterms

12:15 The issue for the Dems is what the party stands for… what’s its identity?

13:00 Dems ‘28 hopefuls need to, and will jump in early

13:45 Dems failed redistricting in VA exposed a problem with the party

15:45 Dems talk like resistance but are viewed as institutionalists

16:30 GOP still behaves more like raw partisans

17:15 South Carolina would have risked disaster by carving up Clyburn’s seat

18:45 Backlash to SCOTUS gutting Voting Rights Act could juice Dem turnout

19:45 Why do both parties seem against reforming the system overall?

21:15 Politics has become completely nationalized and it’s a problem

21:45 Until the last decade, the Democrats were a reform focused party

23:00 The Trump era has pushed Dems into becoming defenders of institutions

23:45 Biden ran on preservation when trust in institutions had collapsed

25:15 The rise of independent voters shows protest for the two available parties

26:30 Rise of independents should worry Dems more than Republicans

27:45 Real reforms to the system would help rebuild trust with the public

29:30 Dems risk becoming custodians of a system people don’t trust

31:45 Dems took their eye off the ball, haven’t acted as reformers

35:30 The Musk/Altman trial has been revealing of the personalities building AI

36:00 OpenAI’s employees testified to Altman lying and chaos internally

37:15 So much tech ego on display at the trial

38:00 The public already feels burned by big tech

40:00 TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists today
42:45 Winning Democratic presidential candidates are usually first time candidates
46:45 Top 5 2028 Democratic candidates who have never run for president
47:00 2026 results will dictate who will eventually have best prospects in 2028
50:00 #5 2026 TBD, could be Rob Sand, Mallory McMorrow…Colbert?
50:30 #4 Josh Shapiro
51:30 #3 Gavin Newsom
52:45 #2 Wes Moore
53:45 #1 AOC

55:45 Top 5 2028 Dem candidates who HAVE run for president
56:00 #5 Amy Klobuchar
57:00 #4 Cory Booker
58:30 #3 Pete Buttigieg
1:00:00 #2 Bernie Sanders
1:01:00 #1 Kamala Harris
1:02:30 Ask Chuck
1:02:45 Modern equivalent of the “good government” groups of the 20th century?
1:07:30 When should Dems make strategic adjustments vs compromising values?
1:10:30 Is a socially conservative, fiscally liberal platform viable?
1:13:00 Could co-op’s be a viable solution to modern economic challenges?

Chuck Todd opens with Trump getting visibly defensive with reporters over a brutal new inflation report &mdash; and argues the bad economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump's policies, with the president himself having zero answers for the data. He notes that AI investment is essentially the only thing propping up the economy, and that we are at least weeks away from the end of the Iran war. He warns we're only at the beginning of the inflation problem and that Democrats can simply point to Trump's broken promises of lower costs and no wars &mdash; they don't even need to make a "for" case, just a sustained "against" case &mdash; but cautions that despite all of this, Democrats still have a serious brand problem that no economic data alone will fix. He argues the failed Virginia redistricting effort exposed the deeper issue: Democrats talk like the resistance but are viewed as institutionalists, while Republicans still behave like raw partisans, and the rise of independent voters represents a fundamental protest against both available parties &mdash; something that should worry Democrats more than Republicans because the GOP has already shown a willingness to blow up the system. He makes a sweeping argument that until the last decade, Democrats were a reform-focused party, but the Trump era has pushed them into becoming defenders of institutions at exactly the moment when public trust in institutions had collapsed. He closes with observations from the Musk-Altman trial, which he says has been revealing about the personalities actually building AI &mdash; with OpenAI employees testifying to Altman's lying and the internal chaos, and so much tech ego on display that the public, already feeling burned by big tech, is only going to grow more skeptical.&nbsp;
Finally Chuck reveals his bonus TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists, the top 5 2028 Democratic hopefuls who have run for president before, and the top who haven&rsquo;t. He also answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment.
&nbsp;
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to <a href="https://shipstation.com/">https://ShipStation.com</a> and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com &amp; enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
01:30 Trump gets defensive with reporters over bad inflation report
03:00 Economy is in worse shape directly because of Trump&rsquo;s policies
03:45 Trump has zero answers for the bad state of the economy
04:45 Dow still hasn&rsquo;t gotten back over 50k since Bondi&rsquo;s viral moment
05:45 AI investment is the only thing propping up the economy
06:30 We are weeks away from the end of the Iran war&hellip; at minimum
07:45 Despite the bad economy, Democrats still have a brand problem
08:30 We are only at the beginning of the inflation problem
09:15 Dems can point to Trump breaking promise of lower costs &amp; no wars
10:00 Dems don&rsquo;t even have to make a &ldquo;for&rdquo; case, just an &ldquo;against&rdquo; case&nbsp;
11:00 Another variable is what the political maps look like by the midterms
12:15 The issue for the Dems is what the party stands for&hellip; what&rsquo;s its identity?
13:00 Dems &lsquo;28 hopefuls need to, and will jump in early
13:45 Dems failed redistricting in VA exposed a problem with the party
15:45 Dems talk like resistance but are viewed as institutionalists
16:30 GOP still behaves more like raw partisans
17:15 South Carolina would have risked disaster by carving up Clyburn&rsquo;s seat
18:45 Backlash to SCOTUS gutting Voting Rights Act could juice Dem turnout
19:45 Why do both parties seem against reforming the system overall?
21:15 Politics has become completely nationalized and it&rsquo;s a problem
21:45 Until the last decade, the Democrats were a reform focused party
23:00 The Trump era has pushed Dems into becoming defenders of institutions
23:45 Biden ran on preservation when trust in institutions had collapsed
25:15 The rise of independent voters shows protest for the two available parties
26:30 Rise of independents should worry Dems more than Republicans
27:45 Real reforms to the system would help rebuild trust with the public
29:30 Dems risk becoming custodians of a system people don&rsquo;t trust
31:45 Dems took their eye off the ball, haven&rsquo;t acted as reformers
35:30 The Musk/Altman trial has been revealing of the personalities building AI
36:00 OpenAI&rsquo;s employees testified to Altman lying and chaos internally
37:15 So much tech ego on display at the trial
38:00 The public already feels burned by big tech
40:00 TWO ToddCast Top 5 lists today 42:45 Winning Democratic presidential candidates are usually first time candidates 46:45 Top 5 2028 Democratic candidates who have never run for president 47:00 2026 results will dictate who will eventually have best prospects in 2028 50:00 #5 2026 TBD, could be Rob Sand, Mallory McMorrow&hellip;Colbert? 50:30 #4 Josh Shapiro 51:30 #3 Gavin Newsom 52:45 #2 Wes Moore 53:45 #1 AOC
55:45 Top 5 2028 Dem candidates who HAVE run for president 56:00 #5 Amy Klobuchar 57:00 #4 Cory Booker 58:30 #3 Pete Buttigieg 1:00:00 #2 Bernie Sanders 1:01:00 #1 Kamala Harris 1:02:30 Ask Chuck 1:02:45 Modern equivalent of the &ldquo;good government&rdquo; groups of the 20th century? 1:07:30 When should Dems make strategic adjustments vs compromising values? 1:10:30 Is a socially conservative, fiscally liberal platform viable? 1:13:00 Could co-op&rsquo;s be a viable solution to modern economic challenges?

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Can’t Defend His Bad Economy + Democrats Have Lost Their “Reformer” Image

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/46a7c08b-6059-475c-adc2-b449003ad566/transcript

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