DDHQ elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the Chuck ToddCast to break down a genuinely seismic night. Democrats flipped both chambers, taking at least seven Republican Senate seats — Talarico over Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Annie Andrews over Darline Graham in South Carolina, Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins, El-Sayed over Rogers in Michigan — with Skelley arguing 56 seats is more likely than not once counting finishes. Texas Democrats swept every statewide race, Hinojosa beat Abbott, and Skelley calls the state officially purple and a plausible 2028 presidential battleground. The gerrymandering story is its own indictment: Republicans redrew five Texas seats and are projected to win one, while California’s Democratic map went five for five. Trump’s voters simply didn’t show up, young voters did, and Black turnout approached presidential levels. 





Timeline:

00:00 Geoffrey Skelley joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 How generationally seismic was this?

03:00 Peltola, Alaska, and the path to 56 Senate seats

07:30 The gerrymanders that backfired — Texas, North Carolina, Arizona

17:30 How everyone missed the size of the wave

24:00 2024 voters wanted the pre-COVID economy and rebuked Trump instead

28:15 Nine of the ten biggest states now have Democratic governors

29:45 Texas is purple, and the battleground moves to the Sun Belt

38:00 Trump voters stayed home, young and Black voters surged

43:45 Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio as new battlegrounds

54:00 Alaska, Murkowski, and a possible Colorado sweep

58:00 The brutal 2028 Senate map for Republicans — and a bad day for JD Vance

DDHQ elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the Chuck ToddCast to break down a genuinely seismic night. Democrats flipped both chambers, taking at least seven Republican Senate seats &mdash; Talarico over Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Annie Andrews over Darline Graham in South Carolina, Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins, El-Sayed over Rogers in Michigan &mdash; with Skelley arguing 56 seats is more likely than not once counting finishes. Texas Democrats swept every statewide race, Hinojosa beat Abbott, and Skelley calls the state officially purple and a plausible 2028 presidential battleground. The gerrymandering story is its own indictment: Republicans redrew five Texas seats and are projected to win one, while California&rsquo;s Democratic map went five for five. Trump&rsquo;s voters simply didn&rsquo;t show up, young voters did, and Black turnout approached presidential levels.&nbsp;
 
Timeline:
00:00 Geoffrey Skelley joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:30 How generationally seismic was this?
03:00 Peltola, Alaska, and the path to 56 Senate seats
07:30 The gerrymanders that backfired &mdash; Texas, North Carolina, Arizona
17:30 How everyone missed the size of the wave
24:00 2024 voters wanted the pre-COVID economy and rebuked Trump instead
28:15 Nine of the ten biggest states now have Democratic governors
29:45 Texas is purple, and the battleground moves to the Sun Belt
38:00 Trump voters stayed home, young and Black voters surged
43:45 Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio as new battlegrounds
54:00 Alaska, Murkowski, and a possible Colorado sweep
58:00 The brutal 2028 Senate map for Republicans &mdash; and a bad day for JD Vance

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Interview Only w/ Geoffrey Skelley - Breaking Down A Seismic Night For Democrats

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/1d7336b2-5b6a-4591-b053-b4f8015e0f19/transcript

Chuck Todd calls it the Trump Tsunami — a total repudiation whose consequences will last a decade. His core argument is that this was an “and” election, not an “or” one: no single explanation accounts for a wave this size, but Trump broke both of his central promises (no new wars, lower costs) and then spent two years dismissively gaslighting voters about their own lived experience. The polling era underestimated Democrats again, the direction was set months ago, and Republicans lost up and down the ballot — including Texas, which Todd argues Trump personally cost them, with school vouchers a major factor in Abbott’s defeat. Turnout hit its highest level in a century. Democrats actually left Senate and governor seats on the table, with a path to 60 that didn’t materialize. Chuck’s verdict: the Trump era is officially over, there’s now a vacuum in the GOP, and voters endorsed change rather than any ideology — which is why he argues Chuck Schumer, as the embodiment of the status quo, can’t be the answer. 

 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football and reacts to the first College Football Playoff rankings.





Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Thank you for watching The Projection

05:00 The Trump Tsunami and a decade of consequences

06:30 Why this was an “and” election with no single explanation

09:30 Comparing it to 2006, and how the polls missed again

13:00 Two broken promises and a president who dismissed voters

16:15 Big tech’s new political problem after betting on Trump

18:30 The Trump era is officially over — and he cost the GOP Texas

23:00 Mandates that weren’t, vouchers, and why Abbott lost

26:15 The battleground map has changed, and the seats Democrats left behind

30:30 Voters endorsed change, not an ideology

34:00 Will Democrats actually govern? And where Trump might deal

36:45 The fight for the GOP’s future and the end of JD Vance?

40:45 Why a change election demands new Democratic leadership 

48:30 Ask Chuck

48:45 Is the dream of primary reform dead?

50:45 Could McConnell’s candidate selection strategy have weakened the wave?

52:45 How will the lame duck play out?

56:15 Will 2028 play out like 2026, or can the GOP change course enough in two years?

1:00:15 College football preview

Chuck Todd calls it the Trump Tsunami &mdash; a total repudiation whose consequences will last a decade. His core argument is that this was an &ldquo;and&rdquo; election, not an &ldquo;or&rdquo; one: no single explanation accounts for a wave this size, but Trump broke both of his central promises (no new wars, lower costs) and then spent two years dismissively gaslighting voters about their own lived experience. The polling era underestimated Democrats again, the direction was set months ago, and Republicans lost up and down the ballot &mdash; including Texas, which Todd argues Trump personally cost them, with school vouchers a major factor in Abbott&rsquo;s defeat. Turnout hit its highest level in a century. Democrats actually left Senate and governor seats on the table, with a path to 60 that didn&rsquo;t materialize. Chuck&rsquo;s verdict: the Trump era is officially over, there&rsquo;s now a vacuum in the GOP, and voters endorsed change rather than any ideology &mdash; which is why he argues Chuck Schumer, as the embodiment of the status quo, can&rsquo;t be the answer.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Finally, he answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football and reacts to the first College Football Playoff rankings.
 
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
00:30 Thank you for watching The Projection
05:00 The Trump Tsunami and a decade of consequences
06:30 Why this was an &ldquo;and&rdquo; election with no single explanation
09:30 Comparing it to 2006, and how the polls missed again
13:00 Two broken promises and a president who dismissed voters
16:15 Big tech&rsquo;s new political problem after betting on Trump
18:30 The Trump era is officially over &mdash; and he cost the GOP Texas
23:00 Mandates that weren&rsquo;t, vouchers, and why Abbott lost
26:15 The battleground map has changed, and the seats Democrats left behind
30:30 Voters endorsed change, not an ideology
34:00 Will Democrats actually govern? And where Trump might deal
36:45 The fight for the GOP&rsquo;s future and the end of JD Vance?
40:45 Why a change election demands new Democratic leadership&nbsp;
48:30 Ask Chuck
48:45 Is the dream of primary reform dead?
50:45 Could McConnell&rsquo;s candidate selection strategy have weakened the wave?
52:45 How will the lame duck play out?
56:15 Will 2028 play out like 2026, or can the GOP change course enough in two years?
1:00:15 College football preview

Chuck’s Commentary - This Election Was A Trump Tsunami + The Trump Era Is Over

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/3b9feab9-225a-4b22-8051-b4f8017451e5/transcript

Chuck Todd calls it the Trump Tsunami — a total repudiation whose consequences will last a decade. His core argument is that this was an “and” election, not an “or” one: no single explanation accounts for a wave this size, but Trump broke both of his central promises (no new wars, lower costs) and then spent two years dismissively gaslighting voters about their own lived experience. The polling era underestimated Democrats again, the direction was set months ago, and Republicans lost up and down the ballot — including Texas, which Todd argues Trump personally cost them, with school vouchers a major factor in Abbott’s defeat. Turnout hit its highest level in a century. Democrats actually left Senate and governor seats on the table, with a path to 60 that didn’t materialize. Todd’s verdict: the Trump era is officially over, there’s now a vacuum in the GOP, and voters endorsed change rather than any ideology — which is why he argues Chuck Schumer, as the embodiment of the status quo, can’t be the answer. 

 

Then, DDHQ elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the Chuck ToddCast to break down a genuinely seismic night. Democrats flipped both chambers, taking at least seven Republican Senate seats — Talarico over Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Annie Andrews over Darline Graham in South Carolina, Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins, El-Sayed over Rogers in Michigan — with Skelley arguing 56 seats is more likely than not once counting finishes. Texas Democrats swept every statewide race, Hinojosa beat Abbott, and Skelley calls the state officially purple and a plausible 2028 presidential battleground. The gerrymandering story is its own indictment: Republicans redrew five Texas seats and are projected to win one, while California’s Democratic map went five for five. Trump’s voters simply didn’t show up, young voters did, and Black turnout approached presidential levels. 

 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football and reacts to the first College Football Playoff rankings.





Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Thank you for watching The Projection

05:00 The Trump Tsunami and a decade of consequences

06:30 Why this was an “and” election with no single explanation

09:30 Comparing it to 2006, and how the polls missed again

13:00 Two broken promises and a president who dismissed voters

16:15 Big tech’s new political problem after betting on Trump

18:30 The Trump era is officially over — and he cost the GOP Texas

23:00 Mandates that weren’t, vouchers, and why Abbott lost

26:15 The battleground map has changed, and the seats Democrats left behind

30:30 Voters endorsed change, not an ideology

34:00 Will Democrats actually govern? And where Trump might deal

36:45 The fight for the GOP’s future and the end of JD Vance?

40:45 Why a change election demands new Democratic leadership 

50:30 Geoffrey Skelley joins The Chuck ToddCast

52:00 How generationally seismic was this?

53:30 Peltola, Alaska, and the path to 56 Senate seats

58:00 The gerrymanders that backfired — Texas, North Carolina, Arizona

1:08:00 How everyone missed the size of the wave

1:14:30 2024 voters wanted the pre-COVID economy and rebuked Trump instead

1:18:45 Nine of the ten biggest states now have Democratic governors

1:20:15 Texas is purple, and the battleground moves to the Sun Belt

1:28:30 Trump voters stayed home, young and Black voters surged

1:34:15 Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio as new battlegrounds

1:44:30 Alaska, Murkowski, and a possible Colorado sweep

1:48:30 The brutal 2028 Senate map for Republicans & a bad day for JD Vance

Chuck Todd calls it the Trump Tsunami &mdash; a total repudiation whose consequences will last a decade. His core argument is that this was an &ldquo;and&rdquo; election, not an &ldquo;or&rdquo; one: no single explanation accounts for a wave this size, but Trump broke both of his central promises (no new wars, lower costs) and then spent two years dismissively gaslighting voters about their own lived experience. The polling era underestimated Democrats again, the direction was set months ago, and Republicans lost up and down the ballot &mdash; including Texas, which Todd argues Trump personally cost them, with school vouchers a major factor in Abbott&rsquo;s defeat. Turnout hit its highest level in a century. Democrats actually left Senate and governor seats on the table, with a path to 60 that didn&rsquo;t materialize. Todd&rsquo;s verdict: the Trump era is officially over, there&rsquo;s now a vacuum in the GOP, and voters endorsed change rather than any ideology &mdash; which is why he argues Chuck Schumer, as the embodiment of the status quo, can&rsquo;t be the answer.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Then, DDHQ elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the Chuck ToddCast to break down a genuinely seismic night. Democrats flipped both chambers, taking at least seven Republican Senate seats &mdash; Talarico over Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Annie Andrews over Darline Graham in South Carolina, Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins, El-Sayed over Rogers in Michigan &mdash; with Skelley arguing 56 seats is more likely than not once counting finishes. Texas Democrats swept every statewide race, Hinojosa beat Abbott, and Skelley calls the state officially purple and a plausible 2028 presidential battleground. The gerrymandering story is its own indictment: Republicans redrew five Texas seats and are projected to win one, while California&rsquo;s Democratic map went five for five. Trump&rsquo;s voters simply didn&rsquo;t show up, young voters did, and Black turnout approached presidential levels.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Finally, he answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football and reacts to the first College Football Playoff rankings.
 
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
00:30 Thank you for watching The Projection
05:00 The Trump Tsunami and a decade of consequences
06:30 Why this was an &ldquo;and&rdquo; election with no single explanation
09:30 Comparing it to 2006, and how the polls missed again
13:00 Two broken promises and a president who dismissed voters
16:15 Big tech&rsquo;s new political problem after betting on Trump
18:30 The Trump era is officially over &mdash; and he cost the GOP Texas
23:00 Mandates that weren&rsquo;t, vouchers, and why Abbott lost
26:15 The battleground map has changed, and the seats Democrats left behind
30:30 Voters endorsed change, not an ideology
34:00 Will Democrats actually govern? And where Trump might deal
36:45 The fight for the GOP&rsquo;s future and the end of JD Vance?
40:45 Why a change election demands new Democratic leadership&nbsp;
50:30 Geoffrey Skelley joins The Chuck ToddCast
52:00 How generationally seismic was this?
53:30 Peltola, Alaska, and the path to 56 Senate seats
58:00 The gerrymanders that backfired &mdash; Texas, North Carolina, Arizona
1:08:00 How everyone missed the size of the wave
1:14:30 2024 voters wanted the pre-COVID economy and rebuked Trump instead
1:18:45 Nine of the ten biggest states now have Democratic governors
1:20:15 Texas is purple, and the battleground moves to the Sun Belt
1:28:30 Trump voters stayed home, young and Black voters surged
1:34:15 Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio as new battlegrounds
1:44:30 Alaska, Murkowski, and a possible Colorado sweep
1:48:30 The brutal 2028 Senate map for Republicans &amp; a bad day for JD Vance

Full Episode - This Election Was A Trump Tsunami + Breaking Down A Seismic Night For Democrats

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/ee473861-2994-43cd-ab07-b4f8016faccf/transcript

One day out, Chuck Todd reacts to Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed — a stunning turn that cost Stevens her staff and, Chuck argues, likely her future in the Democratic Party. The rift escalated over a Cenk Uygur-produced ad El-Sayed disavowed, and Chuck notes the asymmetry: Ralph Norman told South Carolina Republicans to vote their conscience and got a fraction of the coverage. His broader read is that Stevens may have turned El-Sayed into a martyr, and that the establishment forfeits any “we told you so” if he loses. The rest is a full election-night field guide: what Iowa tells you about the wave, the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley, Lake Erie counties in Ohio, Wichita, and why a Phil Scott loss in Vermont means Susan Collins can’t survive Maine. 

Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit his four favorite midterm election upsets, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 “The Projection” election night livestream

03:15 Haley Stevens, El-Sayed, and the endorsement that torched a career

11:15 The Young Turks ad, Islamophobia, and Michigan’s early vote

18:30 South Carolina shifts, and Ralph Norman’s permission slip

20:30 Ranked choice voting as the real loser in Alaska

23:30 The NYT backlash and the risk of audience capture

30:15 Will the Obama-Trump voter come home? Will the Trump voter show up?

36:00 Florida: Miami-Dade, the Panhandle, and how Jolly beats Donalds

39:15 Georgia, Ohio’s Lake Erie counties, and Maine’s mid-coast

46:30 Michigan, Mississippi, Kansas, Texas, Iowa and Nebraska — what to watch 

1:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Chuck’s 4 favorite midterm election upsets

1:08:30 1982 - Tom Bradley loses in California

1:12:15 1994 - Mario Cuomo loses reelection for his 4th term to George Pataki

1:16:00 1998 - Jesse Ventura wins Minnesota governor’s race

1:20:30 1998 -  “The impeachment election”

1:26:30 Ask Chuck

1:26:45 What long term price will JD Vance pay for supporting Ramaswamy ad?

1:29:45 How would history be different if Al Gore won in 2000?

1:34:15 Do political yard signs actually accomplish anything?

1:37:00 Jamie Raskin’s potential for role as Speaker of the House?

1:40:30 Are senior military leaders prepared for a constitutional crisis?

1:43:00 Thoughts on Trump covering diversity mural before a rally?

1:49:00 Will all the swing states go one way in 2026 like they did in 2024?

1:52:15 What does GOP ceding airwaves in DC mean?

1:55:00 College football recap

One day out, Chuck Todd reacts to Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed &mdash; a stunning turn that cost Stevens her staff and, Chuck argues, likely her future in the Democratic Party. The rift escalated over a Cenk Uygur-produced ad El-Sayed disavowed, and Chuck notes the asymmetry: Ralph Norman told South Carolina Republicans to vote their conscience and got a fraction of the coverage. His broader read is that Stevens may have turned El-Sayed into a martyr, and that the establishment forfeits any &ldquo;we told you so&rdquo; if he loses. The rest is a full election-night field guide: what Iowa tells you about the wave, the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley, Lake Erie counties in Ohio, Wichita, and why a Phil Scott loss in Vermont means Susan Collins can&rsquo;t survive Maine.&nbsp;
Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit his four favorite midterm election upsets, answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.
&nbsp;
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See<a href="http://kalshi.com/regulatory"> kalshi.com/regulatory</a> for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
<a href="http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS">http://kalshi.com/r/</a>CHUCKTODD
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
01:00 &ldquo;The Projection&rdquo; election night livestream
03:15 Haley Stevens, El-Sayed, and the endorsement that torched a career
11:15 The Young Turks ad, Islamophobia, and Michigan&rsquo;s early vote
18:30 South Carolina shifts, and Ralph Norman&rsquo;s permission slip
20:30 Ranked choice voting as the real loser in Alaska
23:30 The NYT backlash and the risk of audience capture
30:15 Will the Obama-Trump voter come home? Will the Trump voter show up?
36:00 Florida: Miami-Dade, the Panhandle, and how Jolly beats Donalds
39:15 Georgia, Ohio&rsquo;s Lake Erie counties, and Maine&rsquo;s mid-coast
46:30 Michigan, Mississippi, Kansas, Texas, Iowa and Nebraska &mdash; what to watch&nbsp;
1:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Chuck&rsquo;s 4 favorite midterm election upsets
1:08:30 1982 - Tom Bradley loses in California
1:12:15 1994 - Mario Cuomo loses reelection for his 4th term to George Pataki
1:16:00 1998 - Jesse Ventura wins Minnesota governor&rsquo;s race
1:20:30 1998 -&nbsp; &ldquo;The impeachment election&rdquo;
1:26:30 Ask Chuck
1:26:45 What long term price will JD Vance pay for supporting Ramaswamy ad?
1:29:45 How would history be different if Al Gore won in 2000?
1:34:15 Do political yard signs actually accomplish anything?
1:37:00 Jamie Raskin&rsquo;s potential for role as Speaker of the House?
1:40:30 Are senior military leaders prepared for a constitutional crisis?
1:43:00 Thoughts on Trump covering diversity mural before a rally?
1:49:00 Will all the swing states go one way in 2026 like they did in 2024?
1:52:15 What does GOP ceding airwaves in DC mean?
1:55:00 College football recap

Full Episode - Haley Stevens Lights Her Career On Fire + How To Watch The Election Results

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/83f4429a-4ad3-40f1-9baf-b4f6000739af/transcript

Interview Only w/ Geoffrey Skelley - Breaking Down A Seismic Night For Democrats

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