Chuck Todd unpacks a wave of devastating new polling that shows Americans have lost confidence in Trump across nearly every metric, with his approval cratering among independents and only his hardcore base still standing by him. He notes Trump is underwater on virtually every issue except taxes, immigration, and the border — that his trustworthiness is lower than any past president, that even 22% of his own 2024 voters don't believe he's kept his promises, and that his approval has collapsed with younger voters even as it holds up with the elderly. In a particularly striking finding, only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself, and even the "own the libs" voters can't get behind that particular vanity. Todd warns this is a political disaster in the making for Republicans: the enthusiasm gap is now massive in the Democrats' favor, and the Iran war is polling more unpopular than the worst polling ever recorded for Iraq or Vietnam. Yet despite all this, neither party's brand has actually improved with swing voters — both parties still carry almost identical unfavorability ratings, voters of both parties don't even want their leaders to work across the aisle anymore, and the political incentives are now firmly aligned with confrontation rather than compromise — creating an enormous opportunity for independent candidates that neither major party seems prepared to address. On Iran, he says there is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily — his only real escalation option would be ground troops, which would risk total political collapse — and predicts the eventual deal will look like whatever framework the Iranians put forward. He flags a striking recent Tucker Carlson interview in which Carlson was forced to face hard facts, observing that Tucker increasingly looks like a combination of Pat Buchanan and Roger Ailes who is genuinely trying to build a political movement of his own. He returns to the case for expanding the House of Representatives as the fix for the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, warns that Republicans could pay a serious political price if Southern voters perceive the GOP as actively trying to disenfranchise Black voters and closes with the news that Janet Mills has dropped out of the Maine Senate race — leaving Democrats now trying to coalesce around Graham Platner, in what Chuck says feels increasingly like a mirror image of the 2016 presidential campaign. 

Then, Yale political scientist Ian Shapiro — author of the new book After the Fall — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the missed opportunities of the post-Cold War era and what it would take to actually fix what's broken in the global political economy. Shapiro argues America fundamentally squandered its chance to integrate Russia into the West after the Soviet collapse — there should have been a Marshall Plan for Russia along the lines of what was done for Germany and Japan after World War II, and both Yeltsin and Putin (in his early years) actively lobbied to join the Western order. Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically, the 1994 midterm results pushed him away from foreign policy ambition entirely, and the eventual pivot toward NATO expansion in Eastern Europe — rather than transforming NATO into something genuinely inclusive — froze Russia out and is exactly when Putin's worldview hardened into the revanchism we're dealing with today. Shapiro extends this analysis to 2008, calling the financial crisis another massive missed opportunity: Obama had to bail out the banks, but his failure to insist on a parallel bailout for Main Street allowed the elites to rescue themselves while imposing austerity on everyone else, which directly fueled the right-wing populism now reshaping politics across the West.

The conversation pivots to what comes next. Shapiro is clear that the good policies of the 2030s won't be a rehash of the New Deal — they need to address modern realities. He argues governments need to help workers be flexible rather than redistributing wealth through politically toxic taxation, advocating instead for portable health insurance and portable child care that follows the worker. Shapiro makes a forceful case for immigration as the only realistic answer to America's demographic challenges, noting that Spain and Poland are economically outperforming much of Europe specifically because they've embraced immigration to support aging populations. He warns that we're living in a world disturbingly similar to the 1930s — if ordinary people don't benefit from economic growth, they will not continue supporting the existing order — and notes that right-wing populists don't actually have answers; they just attack the elites. Shapiro argues Trump is inadvertently benefiting China enormously, but cautions that authoritarian governments are fundamentally bad at managing complex economies, so it's still unlikely China's model wins the 21st century. Shapiro closes by warning that the anti-Trump coalition has become too big to govern, but that if Zohran Mamdani succeeds in New York, it could meaningfully energize progressive politics nationally — proof that the road forward requires real ideas about power, not just opposition to Trumpism.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Hindenburg disaster and how it was the origin of “breaking news”, and also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:30 New polling shows Americans have no confidence in Trump

09:15 Trump’s approval has cratered with independent voters

10:00 Trump is only above his approval rating on taxes, immigration and border

10:45 The only people that approve of Trump are his base

12:45 The polling shows a massive repudiation of Trump

14:15 Trump’s trustworthiness is lower than any past president

16:45 Only 78% of Trump voters believe he’s kept his promises

18:15 Trump’s highest approval is with older voters, collapsed with younger voters

20:00 Only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself

21:00 Even the “own the libs” voters don’t like Trump naming things after himself

24:30 Republicans expected ethics in government to improve & they haven’t

25:45 Both parties still have almost identical unfavorability ratings

26:15 The Democratic brand hasn’t improved amongst swing voters

28:15 Voters of both parties don’t want leaders to work across the aisle

29:15 Neither side is incentivized to compromise

31:15 Voters are rewarding confrontation

33:45 Dems more trusted on healthcare, Republicans trusted on crime

34:15 Almost every other issue is up for grabs for both parties

34:45 Neither party has trust on dealing with AI

36:15 There’s a huge opportunity for independents in this political climate

36:45 There’s a huge enthusiasm gap favoring the Democrats

38:00 This is a political disaster in the making for Republicans

38:30 Iran war is more unpopular than worst polling for Iraq & Vietnam

40:15 Trump’s only escalation option in Iran is to send in ground troops

41:15 If Trump wants to escalate he better have a plan

41:45 Far more damage to American military assets than we were told

42:30 The Iranian framework for a deal will likely be the one agreed to

43:30 There is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily

44:00 Trump risks total political collapse if he escalates in Iran

45:00 Tucker Carlson forced to face facts in recent interview

46:00 Tucker is a combination of Pat Buchanon and Roger Ailes

47:45 Carlson feels like someone who is trying to build a movement

49:00 Expanding congress would fix SCOTUS Voting Rights Act ruling

50:30 There will be angry voters in the south after this ruling

52:00 Republicans could pay a political price due to backlash from SCOTUS

53:45 If Republicans try to disenfranchise black voters, they could juice turnout

54:45 Trump is more focused on targeting disloyal Republicans than Democrats

56:00 Janet Mills drops out, Dems trying to come around on Graham Platner

56:45 Platner race feels like mirror image of 2016 campaign for president

1:03:45 Ian Shapiro (After the Fall) joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:05:15 How long did you work on the book?

1:07:00 The lack of a Marshall Plan for Russia was a missed opportunity

1:07:45 Russia should have been dealt with like Germany & Japan after WW2

1:08:45 Yeltsin & Putin lobbied to join the west & we blew that opportunity

1:10:00 Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically

1:11:15 ‘94 midterm results dissuaded Clinton from focusing on foreign policy

1:12:45 Clinton pivoted from rapprochement NATO expansion in eastern Europe

1:13:45 There were opportunities to transform NATO into something else

1:15:15 NATO feels necessary again, we’re back in another cold war

1:16:15 What if we had brought Ukraine into NATO in the 90s?

1:17:00 When Russia was frozen out of the west, that’s when Putin changed

1:17:30 Eastern Europeans have a deep distrust of the Russians

1:18:45 The rise of right wing populism is driven by economics

1:19:30 2008 financial crisis was a missed opportunity for Obama

1:21:15 Elites bailed themselves out in 2008 & imposed austerity on everyone else

1:22:45 Obama had to bail out banks, but didn’t force a bail out of main street too

1:24:30 How do you begin to undo protectionism and nationalism?

1:25:15 Good policies of the 2030s won’t be a rehash of the New Deal

1:26:15 Gina Riamondo has smart policies for transforming the labor force

1:27:45 Government needs to aid the modern worker to help them be flexible

1:29:00 Taxation and redistribution is politically toxic. Better to incentivize business

1:30:00 Portable health insurance and child care would give workers flexibility

1:31:15 Domestic immigration is incredibly difficult and cost prohibitive

1:32:00 Every state needs immigration in order to fix demographic challenges

1:33:15 Spain & Poland’s economies are performing well because of immigration

1:34:00 We need immigrants in order to support services for an aging population

1:34:45 In some ways, we’re living in a world similar to the 1930s

1:36:00 If people don’t benefit from growth, they won’t support the existing order

1:36:45 Right wing populists don’t have answers, they just attack the elites

1:37:15 Spain is one of the few western countries that is getting it right

1:39:15 The west hasn’t dealt well with the rise of China

1:39:45 Everything Trump is doing has benefitted China enormously

1:41:15 Unlikely that China’s model wins the 21st century

1:42:30 Authoritarian governments aren’t good for managing a complex economy

1:43:30 India is even further down the nationalist road than the U.S.

1:44:45 UK’s two major parties are facing the potential of collapse

1:45:45 Could either of the two major two parties in America collapse?

1:46:45 Both parties pushing the same policies & benefits go to the top

1:48:45 Do globally integrated economies make world war less likely?

1:50:15 Major war results in mutually assured economic destruction

1:51:15 The calamities of the 30s and 40s led to massive, inclusive economic growth

1:52:15 Massive, stateless companies are accruing more power than states

1:53:45 The global oligarchs are still reliant on markets and consumers

1:54:30 Governments will need to coordinate to put guardrails on the oligarchs

1:55:15 If business isn’t part of the solution, they will be part of the problem

1:56:45 The Trump administration is cratering & left is reveling in the schaudenfreude

1:58:15 The anti-Trump coalition is too big to govern

1:59:00 If Mamdani succeeds, could that energize progressive politics nationally?

2:01:00 Where can people find your work?

2:02:15 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Ian Shapiro
2:02:30 ToddCast Time Machine - May 6th 1937 - The Hindenburg Disaster
2:03:30 Crowds arrived to watch the Hindenburg arrive
2:04:45 Commercial zeppelin travel had existed for 30 years already
2:05:30 The Hindenburg carried the symbols of Nazi Germany
2:06:15 In 34 seconds the entire airship was destroyed
2:07:00 “Oh The Humanity” becomes an iconic term from broadcasting
2:07:30 The recording wasn’t broadcast live, but was presented as breaking news
2:08:45 Airships fell out of fashion and airplanes made them uncompetitive
2:09:30 The Hindenburg didn’t just fail technically, it failed publicly
2:10:30 Ask Chuck
2:10:45 Have you fallen into the normalization trap? Trump has impeachable offenses
2:16:15 Thoughts on Adam Hamilton running as a Dem in Kansas?
2:19:45 Has any president been as intentionally divisive as Trump?
2:22:00 Take on the expansion of March Madness tournament?
2:26:30 How much impact could the Forward Party have?
2:32:00 Thoughts on the weekend in sports