Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.

The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.

Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered.

The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?

06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%

08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling

11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview

13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA

14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio

16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina

17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham

22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along

26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common

27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins

30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down

33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012

35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points

36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle

38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998

41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa

43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire

45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army

47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war

48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself

52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed

54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership

57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened

59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system

1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga

1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill

1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters

1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction

1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 

1:22:45 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:25:15 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well

1:27:15 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history

1:30:45 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time

1:34:45 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion

1:39:45 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks

1:42:30 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness

1:43:00 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11

1:47:15 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia

1:48:00 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc

1:49:15 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it

1:51:15 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive

1:51:45 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war

1:54:45 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us

1:59:00 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars

2:00:00 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability

2:01:15 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda

2:06:00 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted

2:08:30 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what?

2:10:45 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war

2:11:15 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works?

2:12:45 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology

2:15:45 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities

2:20:00 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip

2:20:30 #1 North Carolina

2:21:15 #2 Alaska

2:21:45 #3 Texas

2:23:15 #4 Ohio

2:25:00 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan

2:27:00 Ask Chuck

2:27:15 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?

2:29:30 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?

2:32:30 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?

2:34:45 College football preview

2:40:00 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football