Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? 

Then, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:04:15 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:05:30 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

1:06:45 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

1:07:15 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

1:07:45 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

1:09:30 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

1:10:00 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

1:10:45 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

1:11:15 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

1:13:00 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

1:13:30 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

1:14:00 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

1:15:00 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

1:16:30 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

1:17:15 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

1:18:00 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

1:18:45 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

1:19:15 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

1:20:00 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

1:20:45 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

1:22:00 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

1:22:45 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

1:23:15 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

1:23:45 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

1:25:30 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

1:26:00 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

1:27:00 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

1:27:45 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

1:28:15 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

1:29:45 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

1:30:15 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

1:31:15 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

1:32:00 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

1:32:30 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

1:33:00 How big should the Democratic tent be?

1:34:00 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

1:34:30 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

1:35:15 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

1:35:45 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

1:36:30 The president should be directly elected

1:37:00 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

1:37:45 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

1:39:15 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

1:40:00 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

1:40:30 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

1:41:15 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

1:41:45 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

1:42:15 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

1:44:30 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

1:45:45 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

1:46:15 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

1:47:00 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

1:47:30 Correlation between governor and senate races

1:50:15 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

1:50:45 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

1:52:00 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

1:52:45 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

1:53:30 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

1:54:30 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

1:55:15 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

1:56:00 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

1:57:30 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI

1:58:15 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

1:58:45 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

2:01:15 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

2:02:30 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

2:04:15 Favorite NBA team

2:05:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Andy Beshear

2:07:00 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

2:07:30 #5 Todd Achilles

2:10:00 #4 Dan Osborne

2:12:15 #3 Seth Bodnar

2:13:30 #2 Lisa Murkowski

2:14:30 #1 John Fetterman

2:17:15 Ask Chuck

2:18:15 Correction for answer on the last pod

2:20:30 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

2:27:45 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

2:31:00 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

2:34:30 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

2:39:45 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?