Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump.

That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems — the tariffs and the Iran war — were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center — calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He  closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country.

Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump’s endorsement

06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters

06:45 The race was a test of Trump’s political strength & she barely won

08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey’s negatives with voters, but not the positives

09:15 It took Trump & his operation to get Graham over the finish line

09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close

10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews?

11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews?

12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes

13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote

14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed

15:30 Andrews has a strong organization & is raising real money

16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami… South Carolina may be on the map

17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham

19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general

21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump

22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest

22:30 Advisors don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump

23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record

24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear 

25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don’t

27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high

27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are

28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump

29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump’s choices

30:00 Playing the “blame Joe Biden” card won’t land with credibility

31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans

31:30 Trump’s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him

32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans

33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami

34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA

35:00 They can’t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars

35:45 It’s an old political “look over here” tactic

36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living

37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn’t

38:00 Trump’s psychology has clearly changed in term two

38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump

39:30 People aren’t as afraid to stand up to Trump now

40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful

40:45 It’s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else’s tombstone

41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump

42:15 Trump isn’t nearly as much of a “builder” as he claims to be

43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling

44:30 It’s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing

45:00 Don’t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump

46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies

47:45 Both parties stay together because they’re afraid of the other sides extremes

48:45 Nearly half the public doesn’t identify with either major party

49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties

51:30 The “left” and “right” labels end up doing the thinking for us

52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized

53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition

54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly

56:30 Every race shouldn’t have to collapse into the same two parties

57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy

58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn’t working

59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics

1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide

1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are

1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

1:12:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

1:13:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

1:15:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

1:19:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

1:20:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

1:27:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

1:30:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

1:38:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates

1:41:45 #1 JD Vance

1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio

1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump

1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley

1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul

1:51:00 Ask Chuck

1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates?

1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like?

2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties?

2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed?

2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red?

2:11:00 College football preview