Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. 

Then, longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion

09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash

12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers

20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House

28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him

33:00 How an industry captures a government

39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 

52:30 Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast

54:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple

1:02:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban

1:05:45 The Texas GOP's character problem

1:10:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean

1:14:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition

1:24:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war

1:30:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario

1:40:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash

1:55:00 Ask Chuck

1:55:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?

2:00:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?

2:08:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?

2:14:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?

2:19:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?

2:25:30 College football preview