In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck delves into the recent developments surrounding Donald Trump, beginning with his confrontational rhetoric against adversaries and the implications of his actions over the past week, which some argue could have driven impeachment efforts. He explores notable incidents such as Tom Homan’s controversial cash exchange and highlights the fundamental challenges to our constitutional principles. The discussion also covers Trump’s use of legal charges like mortgage fraud to target enemies, as well as his aggressive, and possibly legally unfounded, attacks on Venezuelan drug boats. He analyzes how such actions may have numbed the public to attacks and assess whether Trump's political standing is now eroding amidst these controversies

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment”

Timeline:

00:00 Introduction

03:00 Trump targets his adversaries

12:00 Trump's actions in the past week would have driven impeachments 

14:30 Tom Homan took a bag of cash 

16:00 We have basic challenges to our constitution 

17:30 Trump target enemies with mortgage fraud charges  

22:00 Trump attacks Venezuelan drug boats without legal basis

25:00 Unclear that there’s legal basis for attacks

30:30 Trump has numbed public to attacks

36:00 Trump’s political standing is eroding

37:30 Ask Chuck

37:45 Could Mamdani’s style of politics help independents?

46:45 What do local news organizations need to be successful?

54:30 College football update

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck delves into the recent developments surrounding Donald Trump, beginning with his confrontational rhetoric against adversaries and the implications of his actions over the past week, which some argue could have driven impeachment efforts. He explores notable incidents such as Tom Homan’s controversial cash exchange and highlights the fundamental challenges to our constitutional principles. The discussion also covers Trump’s use of legal charges like mortgage fraud to target enemies, as well as his aggressive, and possibly legally unfounded, attacks on Venezuelan drug boats. He analyzes how such actions may have numbed the public to attacks and assess whether Trump's political standing is now eroding amidst these controversiesFinally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment”Timeline:00:00 Introduction03:00 Trump targets his adversaries12:00 Trump's actions in the past week would have driven impeachments 14:30 Tom Homan took a bag of cash 16:00 We have basic challenges to our constitution 17:30 Trump target enemies with mortgage fraud charges  22:00 Trump attacks Venezuelan drug boats without legal basis25:00 Unclear that there’s legal basis for attacks30:30 Trump has numbed public to attacks36:00 Trump’s political standing is eroding37:30 Ask Chuck37:45 Could Mamdani’s style of politics help independents?46:45 What do local news organizations need to be successful?54:30 College football update

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck delves into the recent developments surrounding Donald Trump, beginning with his confrontational rhetoric against adversaries and the implications of his actions over the past week, which some argue could have driven impeachment efforts. He explores notable incidents such as Tom Homan’s controversial cash exchange and highlights the fundamental challenges to our constitutional principles.

Chuck's Commentary - Trump's Actions Are Impeachable + Ask Chuck

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/d533d908-fffa-4be6-a4ba-b36000985eab/transcript

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Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump.

That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems — the tariffs and the Iran war — were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center — calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He  closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country.





Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

“Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now

https://www.scaramucci.net/books

 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership 

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump’s endorsement

06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters

06:45 The race was a test of Trump’s political strength & she barely won

08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey’s negatives with voters, but not the positives

09:15 It took Trump & his operation to get Graham over the finish line

09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close

10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews?

11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews?

12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes

13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote

14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed

15:30 Andrews has a strong organization & is raising real money

16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami… South Carolina may be on the map

17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham

19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general

21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump

22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest

22:30 Advisors don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump

23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record

24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear 

25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don’t

27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high

27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are

28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump

29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump’s choices

30:00 Playing the “blame Joe Biden” card won’t land with credibility

31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans

31:30 Trump’s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him

32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans

33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami

34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA

35:00 They can’t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars

35:45 It’s an old political “look over here” tactic

36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living

37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn’t

38:00 Trump’s psychology has clearly changed in term two

38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump

39:30 People aren’t as afraid to stand up to Trump now

40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful

40:45 It’s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else’s tombstone

41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump

42:15 Trump isn’t nearly as much of a “builder” as he claims to be

43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling

44:30 It’s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing

45:00 Don’t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump

46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies

47:45 Both parties stay together because they’re afraid of the other sides extremes

48:45 Nearly half the public doesn’t identify with either major party

49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties

51:30 The “left” and “right” labels end up doing the thinking for us

52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized

53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition

54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly

56:30 Every race shouldn’t have to collapse into the same two parties

57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy

58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn’t working

59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics

1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide

1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are

1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

1:12:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

1:13:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

1:15:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

1:19:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

1:20:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

1:27:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

1:30:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

1:38:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates

1:41:45 #1 JD Vance

1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio

1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump

1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley

1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul

1:51:00 Ask Chuck

1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates?

1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like?

2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties?

2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed?

2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red?

2:11:00 College football preview

Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina &mdash; a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money &mdash; and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump.
That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest &mdash; with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems &mdash; the tariffs and the Iran war &mdash; were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center &mdash; calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He&nbsp; closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country.
 
Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war &mdash; back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf &mdash; reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia &mdash; and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran &mdash; and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.
From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable &mdash; but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path &mdash; standing up to Trump directly &mdash; is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now
<a href="https://www.scaramucci.net/books">https://www.scaramucci.net/books</a>
&nbsp;
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
&nbsp;
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to <a href="http://askchapter.org/chuck">askchapter.org/chuck</a> <a href="http://askchapter.org/realdana">/</a>&nbsp; *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact<a href="http://medicare.gov/"> Medicare.gov</a>, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump&rsquo;s endorsement
06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters
06:45 The race was a test of Trump&rsquo;s political strength &amp; she barely won
08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey&rsquo;s negatives with voters, but not the positives
09:15 It took Trump &amp; his operation to get Graham over the finish line
09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close
10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews?
11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews?
12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes
13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote
14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed
15:30 Andrews has a strong organization &amp; is raising real money
16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami&hellip; South Carolina may be on the map
17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham
19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general
21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump
22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest
22:30 Advisors don&rsquo;t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump
23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record
24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear&nbsp;
25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don&rsquo;t
27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high
27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are
28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump
29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump&rsquo;s choices
30:00 Playing the &ldquo;blame Joe Biden&rdquo; card won&rsquo;t land with credibility
31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans
31:30 Trump&rsquo;s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him
32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans
33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami
34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA
35:00 They can&rsquo;t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars
35:45 It&rsquo;s an old political &ldquo;look over here&rdquo; tactic
36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living
37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn&rsquo;t
38:00 Trump&rsquo;s psychology has clearly changed in term two
38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump
39:30 People aren&rsquo;t as afraid to stand up to Trump now
40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful
40:45 It&rsquo;s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else&rsquo;s tombstone
41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump
42:15 Trump isn&rsquo;t nearly as much of a &ldquo;builder&rdquo; as he claims to be
43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling
44:30 It&rsquo;s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing
45:00 Don&rsquo;t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump
46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies
47:45 Both parties stay together because they&rsquo;re afraid of the other sides extremes
48:45 Nearly half the public doesn&rsquo;t identify with either major party
49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties
51:30 The &ldquo;left&rdquo; and &ldquo;right&rdquo; labels end up doing the thinking for us
52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized
53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition
54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly
56:30 Every race shouldn&rsquo;t have to collapse into the same two parties
57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy
58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn&rsquo;t working
59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics
1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide
1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are
1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war
1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war
1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. &amp; gulf state alliance?
1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare
1:12:00 There&rsquo;s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.
1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war
1:13:15 Iran&rsquo;s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership
1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran
1:15:00 Hegseth&rsquo;s response was to fire reporters who reported the story
1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies
1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel
1:19:15 Since Citizen&rsquo;s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.
1:20:45 We&rsquo;ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran
1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it&rsquo;s not worth it
1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved
1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform
1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn&rsquo;t
1:27:15 Anthony&rsquo;s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press
1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together
1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages
1:30:00 Pentagon can&rsquo;t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable
1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now
1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west
1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent&hellip; he would get an A+
1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging
1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks
1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats
1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election
1:38:15 Don&rsquo;t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party
1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade
1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition
1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates
1:41:45 #1 JD Vance
1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio
1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump
1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley
1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul
1:51:00 Ask Chuck
1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates?
1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like?
2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties?
2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed?
2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red?
2:11:00 College football preview

Full Episode - South Carolina Delayed Trump's Lame Duck Status... For Now + Why Trump Is Losing In Iran & Trying To Break The West

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/7ccc2bd7-49a0-4d6b-a629-b4b20186a4a6/transcript

Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

“Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now

https://www.scaramucci.net/books

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership 

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

05:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

06:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

08:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

12:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

13:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

20:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

23:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

31:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war &mdash; back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf &mdash; reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia &mdash; and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran &mdash; and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.
From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable &mdash; but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path &mdash; standing up to Trump directly &mdash; is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.
&ldquo;Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now
<a href="https://www.scaramucci.net/books">https://www.scaramucci.net/books</a>
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to <a href="http://askchapter.org/chuck">askchapter.org/chuck</a> <a href="http://askchapter.org/realdana">/</a>&nbsp; *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact<a href="http://medicare.gov/"> Medicare.gov</a>, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast
00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war
02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war
03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. &amp; gulf state alliance?
04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare
05:00 There&rsquo;s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.
05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war
06:15 Iran&rsquo;s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership
07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran
08:00 Hegseth&rsquo;s response was to fire reporters who reported the story
10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies
11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel
12:15 Since Citizen&rsquo;s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.
13:45 We&rsquo;ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran
15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it&rsquo;s not worth it
16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved
17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform
19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn&rsquo;t
20:15 Anthony&rsquo;s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press
20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together
22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages
23:00 Pentagon can&rsquo;t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable
23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now
24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west
24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent&hellip; he would get an A+
26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging
28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks
29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats
30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election
31:15 Don&rsquo;t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party
32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade
33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

Interview Only w/ Anthony Scaramucci - Why Trump Is Losing In Iran & Trying To Break The West

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/c894e4ae-075e-4ba0-b80a-b4b2014ceee8/transcript

Marker 27

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.

Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership 

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0

05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football

07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck

11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse

11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner

12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada

13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 

15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal

16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney

18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands

19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems

20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice

21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war

22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada

23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war

24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry

25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers

26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef

26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching

27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive

28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states

29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states

30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump

30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare

31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations

32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms

33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers

34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later

35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day

35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November

37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse

38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages

40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done

41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble

42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited

43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble

44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran

45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton

45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close

47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags

47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties

48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him

49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD

49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info

50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself

50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops

51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon

52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility

53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic

54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”

54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI

55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash

56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race

56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics

57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government

58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner

59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries

59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump

1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal

1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?

1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks

1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar

1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy

1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently

1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company

1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align

1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt

1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works

1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen

1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 

1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed

1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo

1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states

1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it

1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other

1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations

1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads

1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time

1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this

1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2

1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military

1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress

1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration

1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War

1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged

1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job

1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike

1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it

1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel

1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work

1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them

1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?

1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time

1:35:15 Ask Chuck

1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?

1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?

1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?

1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands &mdash; chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs &mdash; and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive &mdash; while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.
Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study &mdash; five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck&rsquo;s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner &mdash; which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck&rsquo;s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all &mdash; this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system&hellip; and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.&nbsp;
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to <a href="http://askchapter.org/chuck">askchapter.org/chuck</a> <a href="http://askchapter.org/realdana">/</a>&nbsp; *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact<a href="http://medicare.gov/"> Medicare.gov</a>, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0
05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football
07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck
11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse
11:30 Mark Carney says the US can&rsquo;t be trusted as a partner
12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada
13:45 Carney doesn&rsquo;t want Canada subservient to U.S. &amp; will diversify&nbsp;
15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal
16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney
18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands
19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems
20:15 The Trump administration isn&rsquo;t negotiating with one voice
21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war
22:30 These aren&rsquo;t trivial trade relationships with Canada
23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war
24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef &amp; cattle industry
25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers
26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef
26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching
27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive
28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump&rsquo;s policies impacting ag states
29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states
30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump
30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare
31:30 Bessent says we don&rsquo;t need as many jobs due to deportations
32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms
33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers
34:00 We&rsquo;re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later
35:00 It&rsquo;s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day
35:45 The electorate in August isn&rsquo;t the same as the electorate in November
37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper&hellip; and worse
38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages
40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done
41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone&rsquo;s attention, showed Cotton in trouble
42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad &amp; limited
43:45 Don&rsquo;t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble
44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran
45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton
45:45 Cotton won&rsquo;t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close
47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags
47:45 Donalds didn&rsquo;t perform well in northern Florida counties
48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him
49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD
49:30 Stars &amp; Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info
50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself
50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops
51:15 Can&rsquo;t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon
52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility
53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic
54:15 Messaging is to &ldquo;let communities decide&rdquo;
54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech &amp; AI
55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash
56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn&rsquo;t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race
56:45 El-Sayed&rsquo;s argument is outside interests shouldn&rsquo;t purchase MI politics
57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu&rsquo;s government
58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner
59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries
59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump
1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn&rsquo;t betrayal
1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?
1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks
1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar
1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy
1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently
1:05:45 You can&rsquo;t just pull your money out of a life insurance company
1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm &amp; policyholder may not align
1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt
1:08:45 Mark Walter isn&rsquo;t an outlier, this is how the machine works
1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen
1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection&nbsp;
1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed
1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo
1:12:15 Insurance isn&rsquo;t regulated by one agency, it&rsquo;s multiple agencies and states
1:13:30 Regulators can&rsquo;t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it
1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other
1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations
1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation&rsquo;s railroads
1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time
1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this
1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2
1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military
1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress
1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration
1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn&rsquo;t risk rail strike during Korean War
1:25:45 Truman&rsquo;s authority was never really challenged
1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn&rsquo;t stop workers from walking off the job
1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike
1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it
1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel
1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn&rsquo;t always work
1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them
1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?
1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time
1:35:15 Ask Chuck
1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?
1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?
1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?
1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Trade Wars Are Directly Impacting The Battleground States… & The Midterms + Mark Walter Is The Canary In The Coal Mine

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/59861332-d3a7-49f3-bc3b-b4af015a8cee/transcript

Chuck's Commentary - Trump's Actions Are Impeachable + Ask Chuck

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