Chuck Todd walks through a primary night that was, in his words, a really good night for Democrats — and one that may have just answered whether 2026 is shaping up as a genuine blue wave. The night's biggest single story came out of Iowa, where Zach Lahn pulled off a stunning upset of Randy Feenstra in what Chuck characterizes as a "MAHA vs. MAGA" race — Trump endorsed the establishment Feenstra and lost, which Chuck predicts will drive the president absolutely nuts. Iowa Democrats also got a substantial ticket boost when Josh Turek blew out Zach Wahls in the Senate primary, and combined with the surprisingly strong gubernatorial candidacy of Rob Sand, Iowa is now the cleanest test case in the country for whether the political wind has truly shifted — a right-leaning state where the politics are visibly in flux. Chuck flags that Lahn can probably be painted as too far right in a general, that having "congressman" as your first name has become a real disadvantage in 2026, and that the night was an unambiguous positive for Democrats nationally. He also walks through results elsewhere: New Jersey's seventh district will see Tom Keane (still mysteriously MIA from his own campaign) face Rebecca Bennett; South Dakota's gubernatorial race is headed to its first-ever runoff after four candidates each cleared 20%, and Deb Haaland is on track to become the first Native American woman governor in U.S. history.

The conversation then turns to California, where Chuck warns it will be days before we have full primary results but where turnout is already on pace to exceed 2022. He cautions viewers about the inevitable early "red mirage" from the mail-vote curve, predicts Hilton has enough of a lead over Steyer that he likely survives, and argues Xavier Becerra would much rather face Hilton than Steyer in a general — though a potential scandal is looming over Becerra that could reshape the whole race. Chuck argues a Becerra-Hilton race would be a conventional Democrat-versus-Republican contest, that Steyer has spent $500 million across his last two campaigns and still has a low ceiling because he's created a genuine sense of voter exhaustion, and that the single most fascinating race in the state right now is CA-06 and Kevin Kiley. The Los Angeles mayoral picture is clarifying too: Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt appear set to advance, which Todd argues is exactly what Bass wanted — it will be far easier to turn Pratt into a Trump acolyte in a general election than to face the formidable Nithya Raman. He notes that Matt Mahan became known as "big tech's candidate" in ways that genuinely hurt him, and closes with one to watch in Montana, where independent Seth Bodner is quietly hoping the Democratic candidate eventually bows out so he can consolidate the anti-incumbent vote into a real challenge.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of instances that Republicans have rebuked Donald Trump in his second term, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Tuesday was a REALLY good night for Democrats nationally

01:30 Tom Keane still MIA, will face Rebecca Bennett in NJ-07

04:00 Iowa results made Democratic ticket substantially stronger

04:30 Josh Turek blew out Zach Wahls in Iowa

05:30 Biggest upset of the night was Zach Lahn beating Randy Feenstra

08:15 Lahn vs. Feenstra was a MAHA vs. MAGA race

08:45 Iowa is a right leaning state, but the state’s politics are in flux

09:45 Having a first name of “congressman” is a major disadvantage

11:30 Rob Sand is a very strong Democratic candidate for governor in Iowa

13:15 It’s possible Lahn can be painted as too far to the right

14:15 Iowa will be the test of whether 2026 is a blue wave election

15:30 Iowa was a huge positive development for team blue

16:45 Trump endorsing Feenstra then losing will drive Trump nuts

19:00 South Dakota governor’s race headed to runoff for first time

20:45 Four candidates in SD gubernatorial race received 20% of vote

23:00 Voters keep rewarding political bomb throwers

24:00 Trump endorsed the least Trump-like candidate, voters chose the Trumpy one

25:00 Deb Haaland on track to be the first Native American woman governor

25:30 It will be days before we know the full results of California primaries

27:30 California turnout will exceed turnout in 2022

28:30 Early on there will be a red mirage in California due to early vote

31:00 Hilton has enough of a lead over Steyer that he likely hangs on

32:15 Becerra would rather run against Hilton than Steyer

32:45 Steyer has created a sense of exhaustion

33:45 A Becerra v Hilton race would be a conventional D vs. R race

34:15 Potential scandal looms over Becerra

35:45 Most fascinating race is CA-06 and Kevin Kiley

38:15 It looks like Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt will move on in LA mayoral

40:30 It will be easier for Bass to turn Pratt into a Trump acolyte than face Raman

41:45 Steyer has a low ceiling, and has spent $500M in last two campaigns

43:30 Matt Mahan became known as “big tech’s candidate” and that hurt him

46:00 Independent Seth Bodner hoping Democratic candidate bows out in Montana

54:15 Trump replacing Tulsi Gabbard with Bill Pulte for DNI

55:15 Republicans immediately starting pushing back on Pulte as nominee

56:45 No need for NDI. CIA has won the intel agency turf battle

57:30 Bill Pulte makes Tulsi Gabbard look qualified for DNI role

59:45 ToddCast Top 5 instances Republicans successfully rebuked Trump

1:00:00 #5 The Epstein files

1:01:30 #4 Trump’s threat to take over Greenland

1:02:30 #3 Fed chair Jay Powell

1:03:45 #2 Matt Gaetz nomination for AG

1:05:45 #1 Death of Trump’s anti-weaponization slush fund

1:11:30 Ask Chuck

1:11:45 Thoughts on potential reforms, how realistic are they?

1:19:00 Why do you call Democrats the party that’s held to a higher standard?

1:22:45 Do you see Wes Moore as a top Democratic contender in ‘28?

1:27:45 Is Mike Johnson’s speakership at risk? Would he be the minority leader?

1:30:00 Can Keir Starmer survive as PM? Will Nigel Farage be PM?

1:35:00 Do you think a more virtual governance model rather than in-person would work?