Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?

15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting

19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash

23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote

29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave

32:15 Republicans have no closing argument

42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins

47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals

57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play

1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles

1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people

1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election

1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days 

1:32:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964

1:33:30 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech

1:36:00 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment

1:37:30 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights

1:39:15 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message

1:41:15 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country

1:42:30 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people

1:45:45 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message

1:50:15 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results