Chuck Todd opens with the latest from the Iran war's increasingly costly stalemate, arguing Trump doesn't actually want a deal — he wants the ability to declare an accomplishment without ever looking like he capitulated, the same trick he ran with NAFTA and the JCPOA where he ripped up agreements only to sign nearly identical ones under new names. June, Chuck warns, is when the energy shock will start showing up in domestic prices, every day Hormuz stays closed exponentially increases the damage, consumers may begin behaving irrationally and hoarding, and a single bad natural disaster on top of all this could trigger a genuine crisis. But the heart of the episode is Chuck’s meditation on a single phrase: character is destiny in politics. It's not whether character flaws exist — everyone has them — but when those flaws become public and start affecting the people you were elected to serve. Trump's character problems were on display long before he ever became president, but his defenders now include the exact same Rubios and Grahams who used to blast him as morally unfit. And the most uncomfortable part of Chuck argument for the Democratic base: the same progressives who mocked Trump supporters for excusing his behavior are now using essentially identical defenses for Maine's Graham Platner — who has been accused of sexting in 2023, behavior that isn't youthful indiscretion and isn't going away.

Chuck argues political parties used to function as imperfect but real vetting organizations, that once voters become emotionally invested in a candidate they will defend literally anything, that running for office sometimes becomes a substitute for therapy rather than a vehicle for service, and that democracy itself depends on elected officials being able to separate their personal motivations from their public obligations — something Biden failed at when his family obligations led to those preemptive pardons. He notes the Bidens were genuinely beloved before the election but Biden's ambition did real harm to his party, his family, and his own legacy. Todd points to Pope Leo as a potential moral leader Americans seem desperate for at exactly the moment when neither party seems remotely interested in finding the best possible actors. He observes that Platner vs. Collins is starting to feel like a rerun of Trump vs. Clinton in 2016 — two candidates voters genuinely don't want to choose between — and closes with quick hits on Jill Biden's forthcoming memoir, the California gubernatorial primary (where Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer could finish in the top two), and the increasingly strange Los Angeles mayoral race in which Karen Bass appears to be deliberately ignoring Spencer Pratt because she would much rather face him in a general election than the genuinely formidable Nithya Raman.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two stories that occurred on the same day… the Tiananmen square massacre, and Poland’s first post-soviet elections. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:30 Iran war/ceasefire has settled into a costly stalemate

06:45 Trump doesn’t want a deal, just ability to declare an accomplishment

07:30 Trump doesn’t want to look like he capitulated

08:00 Trump ripped up other deals, then got same deals with new names

09:15 June will be when the impacts of energy shock show up domestically

10:30 Every day Hormuz remains closed exponentially increases the damage

11:30 Consumers may begin to behave irrationally, start hoarding

12:30 If a natural disaster hits during energy shock, it could be major crisis

13:45 Pulling out of WHO has exacerbated Ebola outbreak

15:00 We can’t foresee all negative impacts, we just know they’re coming

16:15 Character is always destiny in politics, it’s a matter of when people see it

18:00 Everybody has their own motivation for voting, character isn’t always important

18:45 People defending character flaws are a huge part of the problem

20:00 Rubio & Graham used to blast Trump’s character, now defend it

20:30 People criticizing Trump’s behavior are now defending Graham Platner’s

22:00 People run for office for a variety of reasons, and sometimes not good ones

23:15 Sometimes entering politics become a substitute for therapy

24:30 Character matters because it’s predictive

25:30 Trump’s character flaws did not stay private, they became public

26:30 Biden ran for office when his kids were in crisis

27:30 Biden’s family obligations competed with public ones, gave preemptive pardons

28:15 Democracy depends on elected officials separating personal & public

29:15 Political parties used to be vetting organizations, even if imperfect

30:00 Once people become emotionally invested in a candidate, they defend them

30:45 Character flaws don’t just disappear, they show up… and affect us all

33:00 Democrats in a difficult spot having to defend Graham Platner

33:45 Plater accused of sexting in 2023, these aren’t youthful indiscretions

34:45 Eric Swalwell’s indiscretions were ignored until they became too much to ignore

37:15 Platner can still win, Susan Collins has worn out her welcome

38:00 Progressives may have put blinders on for Platner

38:45 People who mocked support for Trump using same defenses for Platner

40:00 At some point credibility will matter to a majority of voters

42:30 Trump’s bad behavior has alienated 1/3rd of Republican voters

44:30 Trump is politicizing celebrating America 250…making it hard to celebrate

45:45 Trump’s character flaws were on display well before he became president

46:30 The Pope may become the moral leader Americans are desperate for

48:30 Parties don’t seem to be worried about finding the best possible actors

49:30 Platner vs. Collins feels like a rerun of Trump vs. Clinton in 2016

51:15 Jill Biden to release new memoir - Bidens seem insulated from public opinion

52:15 Before election, the Biden family was fairly beloved by most

52:45 Biden’s ambition did real harm to the party, family and their legacy

53:30 The Bidens are good people and people were willing to overlook their flaws

54:30 Xavier Becerra & Tom Steyer could finish in Top 2 spots in CA gov primary

56:30 Karen Bass has mostly ignored Spencer Pratt in LA mayoral race

57:00 Bass wants to face Pratt rather than Nithya Raman

1:05:00 ToddCast Time Machine - June 4th, 1989 - Tiananmen Square massacre

1:05:30 The image of a man standing in front of a tank is iconic

1:06:30 On the same day, Polish citizens were casting ballots in a post soviet election

1:07:00 One communist system responded with elections, another responded with force

1:08:00 The Chinese students protesting were easy to empathize with

1:08:45 At the time it felt like freedom was advancing and communism was retreating

1:09:45 The elections in Poland humiliated the communist government

1:10:30 Chinese leaders closely watched events in Europe

1:11:15 Protest movement in China was one of the largest in their history

1:12:45 Chinese government cracked down on reformers and protest movement

1:13:30 Martial law was declared and troops moved into Beijing

1:14:15 We don’t have an accounting of the total death toll of protestors

1:14:45 The image we all remember is “tank man”

1:15:15 The incorrect assumption was that China’s middle class would demand rights

1:16:30 China proved that their model could survive and remain durable

1:18:30 Tiananmen ultimately was the birth of the current bipolar world

1:19:30 Poland chose the ballot box, China chose the tank

1:20:00 Ask Chuck

1:20:15 Would you ever consider running for president? Colbert as a running mate?

1:23:30 Do you think Paxton heads into the general overconfident?

1:30:15 Could the “Wyoming Rule” be a more realistic step than expanding house?

1:33:15 Any lesser known founding fathers that deserve more credit?

1:38:15 Thoughts on the Catholic church as a source of moral authority?

1:42:15 Any advice for people needing to step back from news while staying informed?