Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad

12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues

17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters

19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election

24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map

30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification

36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity

43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?

45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi

51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out

54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it

1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day 

1:19:00 Ask Chuck

1:19:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?

1:23:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?

1:28:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?

1:32:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out

1:33:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?

1:39:00 College football preview