A new Bank of Canada staff paper tracked 9 million mortgage holders and found that mortgage delinquency has a warning signal, and it starts about two years before the missed payment, on credit cards and lines of credit, not the mortgage. We break down the two-year timeline, why households protect the mortgage until everything else breaks, and what it means for buyers, investors, lenders, and anyone underwriting Canadian real estate. The takeaway: by the time mortgage arrears spike, the stress has been building for months, so watch the rest of the balance sheet.

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