The 47 Morning Update with Ben FergusonThe 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson

Closed? Not Even Close—Oil Keeps Moving, but So Do Red Flags

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1. Strait of Hormuz Situation

  • Iran claimed multiple times that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.
  • However, actual shipping traffic continued, including oil and LNG tankers.
  • U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated:
    • Iran does not control the strait
    • Passage remains open and monitored
  • Data cited:
    • ~55 merchant ships transit per day
    • ~17 million barrels of oil moving through

2. Maritime Risk & Behavior

  • Ships are:
    • Turning off AIS tracking systems for safety
    • Operating cautiously due to military tensions
  • Traffic has:
    • Fluctuated (e.g., 26 ships one day → 5 the next)
    • Not returned to “normal pre-conflict levels”

3. U.S.–Iran Negotiations (MoU)

  • A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed:
    • Covers nuclear issues, sanctions, and broader conflict
  • Includes:
    • Potential release of frozen Iranian funds
    • Conditional progress requirements

Key issue:

  • Concern over how Iran will use funds
  • Oversight mechanism proposed via Qatar
  • Funds may be used for:
    • Food purchases (e.g., American soybeans)

4. Nuclear Program Concerns

  • Iran has:
    • Agreed (in principle) to allow inspectors
  • But:
    • U.S. officials express skepticism
    • Historical distrust is repeatedly emphasized

5. Economic Implications

  • Oil prices:
    • Declining (~$74/barrel) due to optimism
  • Markets:
    • Near record highs
  • Strait stability is linked directly to:
    • Global energy supply
    • Economic stability

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The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson

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