In this episode, Bill speaks with Senior Energy Economist Moutaz Altaghlibi about how the Iran conflict is affecting global energy markets, and whether Europe faces the risk of a new energy crisis. They explore why oil prices have remained relatively contained, but why gas poses a far bigger threat to European inflation and growth. Finally, they discuss how Europe’s improved energy resilience will shape the outlook in the months ahead.

(00:00:00) Introduction & Welcome

(00:02:00) Context: The Iran War & Its Timing

(00:04:30) Current State of Energy Flows: Strait of Hormuz

(00:08:00) Who Depends on This Energy? Asia vs. Europe

(00:11:00) Market Reaction: Oil & Gas Prices So Far

(00:14:00) Oil Market Context: OPEC Cuts & Pre-Conflict Surplus

(00:17:00) Oil Price Scenarios & Inflation Impact

(00:20:30) Shifting Focus to Gas: Lessons from the 2022 Energy Crisis

(00:24:00) Europe's Gas Storage Levels Today

(00:27:30) Worst-Case Gas Price Scenarios

(00:31:00) Macro Impact: Inflation, Second-Round Effects & the ECB

(00:34:30) Consumer Confidence & Household Spending Risk

(00:36:00) Cushioning Factors: China, Renewables & Diversification

(00:40:00) What's on Our Radar: Carbon Pricing & German Defence Spending

(00:43:30) Closing Remarks