Whobody. Twenty nineteen was a different time, and in the middle of that time, we are returning to you with a classic episode, the Race to the Arctic. For a long time, even now, technically the Arctic has been one of those inaccessible regions of the world map. It's a why would you go there kind of place.

Whobody. Twenty nineteen was a different time, and in the middle of that time, we are returning to you with a classic episode, the Race to the Arctic. For a long time, even now, technically the Arctic has been one of those inaccessible regions of the world map. It's a why would you go there kind of place.

Yeah, but there are a lot of countries that have territory that head right up into the old Arctic. So there are reasons to be up there, right. You got to defend your space. You got to make sure nobody else is coming up onto your lands and waters even.

Yeah, but there are a lot of countries that have territory that head right up into the old Arctic. So there are reasons to be up there, right. You got to defend your space. You got to make sure nobody else is coming up onto your lands and waters even.

And waters even, and you're underwater lands. Oh right. Because when we were looking at this, the writing was already on the wall. There was something already in the wind. As the ice in the North Pole evaporates, we're looking at the possibility of enormous profitable trade routes, billions upon billions of dollars of freight transit, but also untold billions of dollars of previously inaccessible resources.

And waters even, and you're underwater lands. Oh right. Because when we were looking at this, the writing was already on the wall. There was something already in the wind. As the ice in the North Pole evaporates, we're looking at the possibility of enormous profitable trade routes, billions upon billions of dollars of freight transit, but also untold billions of dollars of previously inaccessible resources.

Ooh, it's the raw stuff up there. Watch out, watch out.

Ooh, it's the raw stuff up there. Watch out, watch out.

People will do terrible things to get those sweet, sweet resources.

People will do terrible things to get those sweet, sweet resources.

True story. Yeah, and when you tune into this one, folks, please please reach out to us because we want to know your thoughts. Who will control the Arctic?

True story. Yeah, and when you tune into this one, folks, please please reach out to us because we want to know your thoughts. Who will control the Arctic?

From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies, history is riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or learn this stuff they don't want you to know.

From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies, history is riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or learn this stuff they don't want you to know.

Welcome back to the show. My name is Matt Noel Is on an adventure.

Welcome back to the show. My name is Matt Noel Is on an adventure.

They call me Ben. We are joined with our super producer Paul Michig, controlled decand and most importantly, you are you. You are here that makes this stuff they don't want you to know. On a previous episode, Matt Man, we opened this show, you and I asking each other where we would travel, if we could travel anywhere in the world. Yes, and we you know, we don't talk about it too explicitly on the air here, but we whether for work or for other endeavors, we end up traveling like as a group and as individuals more often than not. You know what I mean?

They call me Ben. We are joined with our super producer Paul Michig, controlled decand and most importantly, you are you. You are here that makes this stuff they don't want you to know. On a previous episode, Matt Man, we opened this show, you and I asking each other where we would travel, if we could travel anywhere in the world. Yes, and we you know, we don't talk about it too explicitly on the air here, but we whether for work or for other endeavors, we end up traveling like as a group and as individuals more often than not. You know what I mean?

Yes, correct, And I cannot remember the verdict or our answers to the question of where we would travel. I'm going to change mine now to Germany. I want to go back to Germany. I just want to see what that place is like.

Yes, correct, And I cannot remember the verdict or our answers to the question of where we would travel. I'm going to change mine now to Germany. I want to go back to Germany. I just want to see what that place is like.

You want to see what their whole thing is.

You want to see what their whole thing is.

Yeah, I have a friend named Holger who lived with us for a while who lives out there.

Yeah, I have a friend named Holger who lived with us for a while who lives out there.

I want to go visit him.

I want to go visit him.

That's great. It's always great to visit a country where you have a connection with someone who lives there.

That's great. It's always great to visit a country where you have a connection with someone who lives there.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

And you know, on other previous episodes, Man, we talked about the shape of our planet.

And you know, on other previous episodes, Man, we talked about the shape of our planet.

We did? We did? Is that foreshadowy?

We did? We did? Is that foreshadowy?

It is?

It is?

Well, just to you know, remind people that yes, this is a large, spherical like structured planet, as most of the planets are, at least the ones we've observed, and that means that our planet has these two things on it called poles.

Well, just to you know, remind people that yes, this is a large, spherical like structured planet, as most of the planets are, at least the ones we've observed, and that means that our planet has these two things on it called poles.

Right, why would you go to the poles? In that conversation that I've had about traveling anywhere on the world, anywhere terrestrially, one of the questions I would get is why on Earth would you want to go to the North Pole? Or why on Earth would you want to go to Antarctica. You know, it's a valid question. I would say. One of the coolest things about going to Antarctica is that so few people throughout human history have ever made it there and returned alive.

Right, why would you go to the poles? In that conversation that I've had about traveling anywhere on the world, anywhere terrestrially, one of the questions I would get is why on Earth would you want to go to the North Pole? Or why on Earth would you want to go to Antarctica. You know, it's a valid question. I would say. One of the coolest things about going to Antarctica is that so few people throughout human history have ever made it there and returned alive.

There you go that's worth it.

There you go that's worth it.

So, you know, bragging rights neat little stamp on your passport, which is very dodgy from a legal perspective.

So, you know, bragging rights neat little stamp on your passport, which is very dodgy from a legal perspective.

Or maybe you just really enjoy the cold.

Or maybe you just really enjoy the cold.

Or maybe you're just super into the cold. You know, sleeping in your fridge isn't cutting it anymore. It's true, Matt, You're absolutely right. Planet Earth is very basic information. Planet Earth has two poles, and they are both cold inhospitable alien environments. These poles are places where human beings are not built to be. To the far far north, we have the Arctic surrounded by the Arctic Circle. To the far far south, we have the continent of Antarctica. We've done several episodes on Antarctica. I was surprised to remember we did one. Let's see, what's our most recent one we did?

Or maybe you're just super into the cold. You know, sleeping in your fridge isn't cutting it anymore. It's true, Matt, You're absolutely right. Planet Earth is very basic information. Planet Earth has two poles, and they are both cold inhospitable alien environments. These poles are places where human beings are not built to be. To the far far north, we have the Arctic surrounded by the Arctic Circle. To the far far south, we have the continent of Antarctica. We've done several episodes on Antarctica. I was surprised to remember we did one. Let's see, what's our most recent one we did?

I couldn't tell you.

I couldn't tell you.

I know we've discussed several times the various attempts to get to Antarctica and set up bases of oh yeah, from the World Wars.

I know we've discussed several times the various attempts to get to Antarctica and set up bases of oh yeah, from the World Wars.

On, Yeah, what happens if there's a murder in Antarctica? That was one of our most recent.

On, Yeah, what happens if there's a murder in Antarctica? That was one of our most recent.

Ones, something yeah, something along that way.

Ones, something yeah, something along that way.

And then my favorite one to date has been what's beneath the Arctic Ice, which is one of the videos on our YouTube channel.

And then my favorite one to date has been what's beneath the Arctic Ice, which is one of the videos on our YouTube channel.

That was a great one talking about this too, the strange research that could be going on there, because that's really all that happens there.

That was a great one talking about this too, the strange research that could be going on there, because that's really all that happens there.

Right, or the lethal diseases that may just wake up you know, there's something almost love craftying about it. But for the bulk of human history, very very few people, relatively few people have managed to visit these parts of the world. Even fewer people have managed to visit these parts of the world and return alive to tell the tale. And you have to ask yourself, of course, it makes sense that few people have managed to visit the Pollwyarth, would you let's talk a little bit about the Arctic and the Arctic Circle, which is going to be the primary focus for today's show. The Arctic is a region of the planet. It's north of the Arctic Circle, which will define in a moment, and it includes the Arctic Ocean, Greenland, Bath and Island, other smaller islands in the north and the very very northern areas of Europe, Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

Right, or the lethal diseases that may just wake up you know, there's something almost love craftying about it. But for the bulk of human history, very very few people, relatively few people have managed to visit these parts of the world. Even fewer people have managed to visit these parts of the world and return alive to tell the tale. And you have to ask yourself, of course, it makes sense that few people have managed to visit the Pollwyarth, would you let's talk a little bit about the Arctic and the Arctic Circle, which is going to be the primary focus for today's show. The Arctic is a region of the planet. It's north of the Arctic Circle, which will define in a moment, and it includes the Arctic Ocean, Greenland, Bath and Island, other smaller islands in the north and the very very northern areas of Europe, Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

That's right, And really when you're talking about the Arctic, you're talking about stuff that is around the Arctic Ocean. So there are several seas that are up there along the Russian coast and several other bodies of water, but it's really the Arctic Ocean up there. And you know, there are really five nations that you're talking about if you're talking about the Arctic Powers or the Arctic countries, the controlling powers up there. You've got Russia, the United States with Alaska, Norway, Denmark and slash, Greenland and Canada. These are these are the people or the powers you're talking about when you're when you're going to be discussing maybe land rights and usage rights of that area.

That's right, And really when you're talking about the Arctic, you're talking about stuff that is around the Arctic Ocean. So there are several seas that are up there along the Russian coast and several other bodies of water, but it's really the Arctic Ocean up there. And you know, there are really five nations that you're talking about if you're talking about the Arctic Powers or the Arctic countries, the controlling powers up there. You've got Russia, the United States with Alaska, Norway, Denmark and slash, Greenland and Canada. These are these are the people or the powers you're talking about when you're when you're going to be discussing maybe land rights and usage rights of that area.

And that's the that's by the narrowest definition of the Arctic as a whole. Yes, just just top down Arctic Ocean and the five closest nations around it. Yes, the region has also been defined as the area above the Arctic Circle. And in Russia this area is referred to as something that translates to the High North. And if we if we go by that definition, then we add some other countries to the mix. Iceland, Sweden and Finland also become Arctic Powers, even though they don't have a coast on the Arctic Ocean. So these eight nations together they form what's called the Arctic Council.

And that's the that's by the narrowest definition of the Arctic as a whole. Yes, just just top down Arctic Ocean and the five closest nations around it. Yes, the region has also been defined as the area above the Arctic Circle. And in Russia this area is referred to as something that translates to the High North. And if we if we go by that definition, then we add some other countries to the mix. Iceland, Sweden and Finland also become Arctic Powers, even though they don't have a coast on the Arctic Ocean. So these eight nations together they form what's called the Arctic Council.

And they've got a great website you can check out by the way they do the Arctic Council. It's an arcticdh Council dot org.

And they've got a great website you can check out by the way they do the Arctic Council. It's an arcticdh Council dot org.

What makes the website great, Matt.

What makes the website great, Matt.

It's very difficult to read because of the color choices that they've made, but it's also it's got a lot of cool information in there, and I don't know, just check it out if you're interested in exactly what that is.

It's very difficult to read because of the color choices that they've made, but it's also it's got a lot of cool information in there, and I don't know, just check it out if you're interested in exactly what that is.

And when we talk about when we talk about the polls, one thing that makes the Arctic Circle very, very different from Antarctica is that this is pretty populated. I mean sparsely populated, but pretty populated. There are about four million people who live there. Of those four million people, about half a Russian and this is still the case despite the fact that living in the High North, living in the High North of Russia is a rough life and the area has been losing population for the several decades. So we've mentioned the Arctic Circle. What is that It is essentially an imaginary line. Our species has created it. We all agree that that's a bully idea and so we're going to keep it around. It's located at sixty six point six degrees north latitude, and we use that latitude as a way to define or demarcate the southernmost part of the Arctic. Every part of the land and sea within the Arctic Circle is very, very cold, and historically speaking, much of it has just been covered with ice. In addition to the temperature, just the regular weather sucks too.

And when we talk about when we talk about the polls, one thing that makes the Arctic Circle very, very different from Antarctica is that this is pretty populated. I mean sparsely populated, but pretty populated. There are about four million people who live there. Of those four million people, about half a Russian and this is still the case despite the fact that living in the High North, living in the High North of Russia is a rough life and the area has been losing population for the several decades. So we've mentioned the Arctic Circle. What is that It is essentially an imaginary line. Our species has created it. We all agree that that's a bully idea and so we're going to keep it around. It's located at sixty six point six degrees north latitude, and we use that latitude as a way to define or demarcate the southernmost part of the Arctic. Every part of the land and sea within the Arctic Circle is very, very cold, and historically speaking, much of it has just been covered with ice. In addition to the temperature, just the regular weather sucks too.

Yeah, it really does.

Yeah, it really does.

If you see a picture of the Arctic Circle, why it's called the Arctic Circle because that latitude makes this really nice circle there, and the ice is the defining factor that Ben is talking about here. If you're looking at an image of it from the top down, it's it's a rough place. So in the midwinter months in this area, the sun never really rises at all, It just doesn't. You just don't have sun essentially, in Temperatures stay very very low because of that, and then they reach massive lows to about negative fifty degrees fahrenheit at the higher latitudes in this region because you know, you do have varying latitudes there, and then in the summer months, like if you go a little bit further south, you get twenty four hours of sunlight a day, and that has a pretty big effect on that region because it's going to melt all the sea. You know, the ice that's coming up right that's being formed there from the super cold region, and this is one of the main reasons that icebergs end up breaking off from this like frozen northern area and then floating south. And now this right here is one of the big things we're going to talk about later when it comes to the economics of this region and some of the the reasons powers are fighting to control this region because of this ice. As it's melting from the north and goes south, you can't it's very difficult to get ships through there.

If you see a picture of the Arctic Circle, why it's called the Arctic Circle because that latitude makes this really nice circle there, and the ice is the defining factor that Ben is talking about here. If you're looking at an image of it from the top down, it's it's a rough place. So in the midwinter months in this area, the sun never really rises at all, It just doesn't. You just don't have sun essentially, in Temperatures stay very very low because of that, and then they reach massive lows to about negative fifty degrees fahrenheit at the higher latitudes in this region because you know, you do have varying latitudes there, and then in the summer months, like if you go a little bit further south, you get twenty four hours of sunlight a day, and that has a pretty big effect on that region because it's going to melt all the sea. You know, the ice that's coming up right that's being formed there from the super cold region, and this is one of the main reasons that icebergs end up breaking off from this like frozen northern area and then floating south. And now this right here is one of the big things we're going to talk about later when it comes to the economics of this region and some of the the reasons powers are fighting to control this region because of this ice. As it's melting from the north and goes south, you can't it's very difficult to get ships through there.

And these these crushing temperatures. Just to put this in perspective for everybody outside of what the United States, mianmar and Namibia. Sure, negative fifty degrees fahrenheit is negative forty five point five degrees celsius. So I hope that some of us listening were like, negative fifty it's cold, but what is that. I hope that really impacted you. We've brought it over to Celsia.

And these these crushing temperatures. Just to put this in perspective for everybody outside of what the United States, mianmar and Namibia. Sure, negative fifty degrees fahrenheit is negative forty five point five degrees celsius. So I hope that some of us listening were like, negative fifty it's cold, but what is that. I hope that really impacted you. We've brought it over to Celsia.

Here are freezing temperatures where my hand is around my chest and down there near the floor is where negative fifty is.

Here are freezing temperatures where my hand is around my chest and down there near the floor is where negative fifty is.

Yes, yeah, that's great. You're absolutely right. The icebergs breaking off, the rogue ice floating around, I call it rogue, but yeah, really humans are the rogue element here. This stuff makes it very difficult and dangerous to move ships through, to move vessels across the water, or it has historically. That has not stopped people from living in the Arctic Circle. This is not new territory. There's not a brand new suburb. People have lived there for thousands and thousands of years. If we wanted a ballpark, we could say the earliest people were around nine thousand years ago. It's an ancient land, and while they have lived there, it hasn't been easy to do so. It turned out that despite the thousands of years of human civilization, admittedly sparse human civilization, but human civilization nonetheless, no one actually reached the northernmost point. No one reached the North Pole until the beginning of the twentieth century, as far as we know. Officially, in nineteen oh nine, a guy named Robert E. Perry became the first documented human being to physically reach the North Pole again, this brutal part of the world. He was not, by any means the first guy to try it. He was just the first to make it that we know of.

Yes, yeah, that's great. You're absolutely right. The icebergs breaking off, the rogue ice floating around, I call it rogue, but yeah, really humans are the rogue element here. This stuff makes it very difficult and dangerous to move ships through, to move vessels across the water, or it has historically. That has not stopped people from living in the Arctic Circle. This is not new territory. There's not a brand new suburb. People have lived there for thousands and thousands of years. If we wanted a ballpark, we could say the earliest people were around nine thousand years ago. It's an ancient land, and while they have lived there, it hasn't been easy to do so. It turned out that despite the thousands of years of human civilization, admittedly sparse human civilization, but human civilization nonetheless, no one actually reached the northernmost point. No one reached the North Pole until the beginning of the twentieth century, as far as we know. Officially, in nineteen oh nine, a guy named Robert E. Perry became the first documented human being to physically reach the North Pole again, this brutal part of the world. He was not, by any means the first guy to try it. He was just the first to make it that we know of.

That's right and well.

That's right and well.

And when we say that's what we know is because this guy, Robert E. Piery Perry, Robert E. Perry, he was well known to us. There were a lot of other indigenous peoples that were living around this area far before that, at least that we understand. So if you're talking about the four million people that currently exist and live there, you're talking about mostly Inuit, Sammy, and you know people who live in.

And when we say that's what we know is because this guy, Robert E. Piery Perry, Robert E. Perry, he was well known to us. There were a lot of other indigenous peoples that were living around this area far before that, at least that we understand. So if you're talking about the four million people that currently exist and live there, you're talking about mostly Inuit, Sammy, and you know people who live in.

Russia and navigating the Arctic because of the ice that you mentioned, Matt, and because of the temperatures, it's incredibly dangerous and potentially incredibly rewarding on a couple of fronts. First, the realm of commerce, the ability to transport goods across this area of ocean can present tremendous economic advantage to any nation or corporation controlling shipping routes.

Russia and navigating the Arctic because of the ice that you mentioned, Matt, and because of the temperatures, it's incredibly dangerous and potentially incredibly rewarding on a couple of fronts. First, the realm of commerce, the ability to transport goods across this area of ocean can present tremendous economic advantage to any nation or corporation controlling shipping routes.

Yeah, because you're also going to have problems navigating this by air this area because of the temperature, sometimes because of other issues that you're dealing with at the northern Pole. So having a giant ship getting through the water with all of the freight that it could carry, that would be hugely advantageous. The other problem here is the realm of military might, because if you could, let's say you're Russia and you already have roughly fifty percent of the surrounding land mass of the Arctic Circle, if you can move forward and fully navigate the entire Arctic Ocean well and easily, then it really changes something that we've mentioned before over here called force projection, which is just having the ability to have a ship with weapons on it wherever you want it to be at any time.

Yeah, because you're also going to have problems navigating this by air this area because of the temperature, sometimes because of other issues that you're dealing with at the northern Pole. So having a giant ship getting through the water with all of the freight that it could carry, that would be hugely advantageous. The other problem here is the realm of military might, because if you could, let's say you're Russia and you already have roughly fifty percent of the surrounding land mass of the Arctic Circle, if you can move forward and fully navigate the entire Arctic Ocean well and easily, then it really changes something that we've mentioned before over here called force projection, which is just having the ability to have a ship with weapons on it wherever you want it to be at any time.

And up until recently, the present of all that ice made both of these goals thought exercises, you know what I mean, hypothetical scenarios. Yeah, not attainable things. And let's take a brief, a brief side trip all the way down south to Antarctica, just to mention it, because a lot of these things will apply to Antarctic as well. Southernmost continent on Earth. It's the least populous surprise surprise by far. That's because it's also the possessor of several superlatives. It is not only the driest place in the world, it is also the coldest place in the world and sorry, Chicago the windiest place in the world. It's not a country. It has no government, there is no native population. The entire continent is set aside for now as a scientific preserve, but that hasn't stopped countries from laying territorial claims. Britain, France, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Chile and Argentine have all laid claims. The Nazi Party or Germany did as well. During World War Two, military activities banned on this continent, and it's also a legal to prospect for minerals or oil. Fifty different nations, including Russia, China, and the US, have agreed with this Antarctic treaty, but everybody's all about bending the rules, especially as it gets easier and easier to find stuff there. So that's how it stands now. We're going to spend most of our time on the Arctic today. But it's important to note that some of the same concerns that apply to the North Pole apply or at least will apply to the South Pole. And the big question is what happens when all this changes.

And up until recently, the present of all that ice made both of these goals thought exercises, you know what I mean, hypothetical scenarios. Yeah, not attainable things. And let's take a brief, a brief side trip all the way down south to Antarctica, just to mention it, because a lot of these things will apply to Antarctic as well. Southernmost continent on Earth. It's the least populous surprise surprise by far. That's because it's also the possessor of several superlatives. It is not only the driest place in the world, it is also the coldest place in the world and sorry, Chicago the windiest place in the world. It's not a country. It has no government, there is no native population. The entire continent is set aside for now as a scientific preserve, but that hasn't stopped countries from laying territorial claims. Britain, France, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Chile and Argentine have all laid claims. The Nazi Party or Germany did as well. During World War Two, military activities banned on this continent, and it's also a legal to prospect for minerals or oil. Fifty different nations, including Russia, China, and the US, have agreed with this Antarctic treaty, but everybody's all about bending the rules, especially as it gets easier and easier to find stuff there. So that's how it stands now. We're going to spend most of our time on the Arctic today. But it's important to note that some of the same concerns that apply to the North Pole apply or at least will apply to the South Pole. And the big question is what happens when all this changes.

So yeah, we've really been just looking at the background for a lot of this stuff. But what happens when when some of the ice melts, when it gets a little warmer, when some of these things that were just bubble thought bubbles in someone's head in a situation room, become an actual actionable plan.

So yeah, we've really been just looking at the background for a lot of this stuff. But what happens when when some of the ice melts, when it gets a little warmer, when some of these things that were just bubble thought bubbles in someone's head in a situation room, become an actual actionable plan.

That's what we're looking at today. Right.

That's what we're looking at today. Right.

We've explored a bit of the history. We've taken a brief look at the present day situation. Yet we are living in a time rife with Malcolm Gladwell esque tipping points. They're dangling, lumering, capering, swinging wildly on the horizon. Yes, sure, the climate in these areas is changing, but the economic, geopolitical, and military landscapes are changing as well. And the race began years ago, it was just not on your mainstream news networks. It's becoming increasingly apparent that this may well be one of the next great global contests, and the outcome of this race may well determine the course of human affairs for decades, perhaps centuries to come. In short, who will control the Arctic?

We've explored a bit of the history. We've taken a brief look at the present day situation. Yet we are living in a time rife with Malcolm Gladwell esque tipping points. They're dangling, lumering, capering, swinging wildly on the horizon. Yes, sure, the climate in these areas is changing, but the economic, geopolitical, and military landscapes are changing as well. And the race began years ago, it was just not on your mainstream news networks. It's becoming increasingly apparent that this may well be one of the next great global contests, and the outcome of this race may well determine the course of human affairs for decades, perhaps centuries to come. In short, who will control the Arctic?

And we'll get to that right after a word from our sponsor.

And we'll get to that right after a word from our sponsor.

Here's where it gets crazy. Everybody wants a piece, that's it.

Here's where it gets crazy. Everybody wants a piece, that's it.

Yeah, there are a lot of powers that are interested, and not just the ones who are immediately adjacent to the Arctic.

Yeah, there are a lot of powers that are interested, and not just the ones who are immediately adjacent to the Arctic.

Circle right, right, So we know that different countries have historically laid claim to the Arctic, right, and there have been numerous disputes about this, which we can explore. But the accelerated trend of changing climate or temperatures in these areas is also accelerating the rate of change in geopolitics of the Arctic.

Circle right, right, So we know that different countries have historically laid claim to the Arctic, right, and there have been numerous disputes about this, which we can explore. But the accelerated trend of changing climate or temperatures in these areas is also accelerating the rate of change in geopolitics of the Arctic.

So yeah, if we want to take a quick.

So yeah, if we want to take a quick.

Look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations twenty eighteen report cards, specifically the Arctic report Card, you can find that at Arctic DOAA dot gov if you want to follow along here. But in their highlights, they're talking about surface air temperatures in the Arctic. They've continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe, which is troubling. The air temperatures there for the past five years have exceeded all previous records since nineteen hundred, And there's a whole bunch of other stuff in here that you can look at, specifically talking about sea ice.

Look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations twenty eighteen report cards, specifically the Arctic report Card, you can find that at Arctic DOAA dot gov if you want to follow along here. But in their highlights, they're talking about surface air temperatures in the Arctic. They've continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe, which is troubling. The air temperatures there for the past five years have exceeded all previous records since nineteen hundred, And there's a whole bunch of other stuff in here that you can look at, specifically talking about sea ice.

Let's see, sea ice.

Let's see, sea ice.

Remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The twelve lowest extents of the satellite record have occurred in the last twelve years in the Arctic, And there's a toime like, if you really want to dig deep into the information, you can find it there on the report card. But essentially it's just saying that the ice is receding. There's less of it, it's younger ice, it's not building up the thick levels that it used to. It really is happening, and it's happening now and it has been happening.

Remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The twelve lowest extents of the satellite record have occurred in the last twelve years in the Arctic, And there's a toime like, if you really want to dig deep into the information, you can find it there on the report card. But essentially it's just saying that the ice is receding. There's less of it, it's younger ice, it's not building up the thick levels that it used to. It really is happening, and it's happening now and it has been happening.

And this is catastrophic for the creatures, for the wildlife that have adapted over millions and millions of years to live in this environment. It's terrible for those. This is one of the worst times in polar bear history to be a polar bear. However, for humans in the short term, if we look at the checkers game rather than the chess game, this could be a bonanza, a cavalcade of money to be made, assuming that we still practice the economic ideology of money in the near future, which we probably will because we're not a super creative species. This development, should it continue, will unlock massive hydrocarbon and mineral resources in the Arctic and in the Continental Shelf. This could also, at the same time make a year round northern sea route practical via two ways Russia's Northeast Passage or Canada's Northwest Passage. And the reason this is important is because it could cut transit time to ship from somewhere in East Asia to Europe or North America's east coast by thirty percent, which may not sound like a lot, but it's huge.

And this is catastrophic for the creatures, for the wildlife that have adapted over millions and millions of years to live in this environment. It's terrible for those. This is one of the worst times in polar bear history to be a polar bear. However, for humans in the short term, if we look at the checkers game rather than the chess game, this could be a bonanza, a cavalcade of money to be made, assuming that we still practice the economic ideology of money in the near future, which we probably will because we're not a super creative species. This development, should it continue, will unlock massive hydrocarbon and mineral resources in the Arctic and in the Continental Shelf. This could also, at the same time make a year round northern sea route practical via two ways Russia's Northeast Passage or Canada's Northwest Passage. And the reason this is important is because it could cut transit time to ship from somewhere in East Asia to Europe or North America's east coast by thirty percent, which may not sound like a lot, but it's huge.

Oh yeah, it's huge.

Oh yeah, it's huge.

Like if you ever get a check and taxes are thirty percent of that, you know you'll really feel it.

Like if you ever get a check and taxes are thirty percent of that, you know you'll really feel it.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Well, yes, And as we're thinking about this, it's not you know, we mentioned Canada's Northwest Passage and Russia, Russia's Northeast Passage. It's not just those countries those nations that would be using those passages. It's this has wider implications.

Well, yes, And as we're thinking about this, it's not you know, we mentioned Canada's Northwest Passage and Russia, Russia's Northeast Passage. It's not just those countries those nations that would be using those passages. It's this has wider implications.

Yes, yes, this has wider implications. It goes down to the argument of what should be considered international waters and what should be considered sovereign waters.

Yes, yes, this has wider implications. It goes down to the argument of what should be considered international waters and what should be considered sovereign waters.

Right well, and then even if it's not international waters, countries and nations working together with trade deals to use those waters, right And it's just there's so many there's so many things to think about with it.

Right well, and then even if it's not international waters, countries and nations working together with trade deals to use those waters, right And it's just there's so many there's so many things to think about with it.

A lot of you know what. Now you mentioned it, Matt, A lot of lawyers are gonna make a ton of cash off this, too, y. So the thing is that this could economically be very good for a ton of nations and a ton of people throughout the world, depending on how it's played out. However, without sounding too skeptical of our ability to work together, we do have to point out that one of the first possibilities on the horizon, let's say all this ice melts, one of the first possibilities on the horizon is going.

A lot of you know what. Now you mentioned it, Matt, A lot of lawyers are gonna make a ton of cash off this, too, y. So the thing is that this could economically be very good for a ton of nations and a ton of people throughout the world, depending on how it's played out. However, without sounding too skeptical of our ability to work together, we do have to point out that one of the first possibilities on the horizon, let's say all this ice melts, one of the first possibilities on the horizon is going.

To be war, or at least the threat of war, right, the posturing.

To be war, or at least the threat of war, right, the posturing.

Well, let's call it, yeah, posturing, rivalry, brinksmanship, whatever you want to call it. What you know what, why don't we call it Russia and America too? Oh go electric Arctic boogaloo.

Well, let's call it, yeah, posturing, rivalry, brinksmanship, whatever you want to call it. What you know what, why don't we call it Russia and America too? Oh go electric Arctic boogaloo.

Okay, that's great.

Okay, that's great.

Oh yeah, Well, if you're listening and you're in the un please feel free to use that just credit our show. The disappearance of ice in the Arctic immediately changes the status quo for Russia and the United States in the following ways, in ways that are very very good for the Federated States of Russia. Moscow suddenly gets access to more than four thousand miles of Arctic coastline, and that would fundamentally transform Russia from a continental to a maritime power. Russia would have access to all weather bases and immediately start constructing them.

Oh yeah, Well, if you're listening and you're in the un please feel free to use that just credit our show. The disappearance of ice in the Arctic immediately changes the status quo for Russia and the United States in the following ways, in ways that are very very good for the Federated States of Russia. Moscow suddenly gets access to more than four thousand miles of Arctic coastline, and that would fundamentally transform Russia from a continental to a maritime power. Russia would have access to all weather bases and immediately start constructing them.

By the way, Yeah, it would be a no brainer to do that.

By the way, Yeah, it would be a no brainer to do that.

It would be ridiculous not to do it. This also creates security risk along Russia's northern border, Alaska and Russia being very close together, and previously these concerns just didn't apply. They're not applicable because of the area's harsh climate. It's just too much of pain to do stuff there. So, the prospect of the Arctic Ocean emerging as a new theater of military rivalry or what did you call it?

It would be ridiculous not to do it. This also creates security risk along Russia's northern border, Alaska and Russia being very close together, and previously these concerns just didn't apply. They're not applicable because of the area's harsh climate. It's just too much of pain to do stuff there. So, the prospect of the Arctic Ocean emerging as a new theater of military rivalry or what did you call it?

Met naughty boats?

Met naughty boats?

Yes, of naughty boat tag. There we go. That's that's the way to explain for it, of naughty boat tag. This prospect is being taken very very seriously, not by just the US, but by NATO, by Moscow, of course, and they're trying to figure out how they are going to sort this out without entering into what's called a hot war.

Yes, of naughty boat tag. There we go. That's that's the way to explain for it, of naughty boat tag. This prospect is being taken very very seriously, not by just the US, but by NATO, by Moscow, of course, and they're trying to figure out how they are going to sort this out without entering into what's called a hot war.

Yeah, where stuff is actually fired.

Yeah, where stuff is actually fired.

Right, well, so where stuff is actually fired from from from one puppet master to the other puppet master. Yeah, so like a proxy war is occurring in Syria.

Right, well, so where stuff is actually fired from from from one puppet master to the other puppet master. Yeah, so like a proxy war is occurring in Syria.

That's where the hands go out and manipulate the other things.

That's where the hands go out and manipulate the other things.

Right, and they fire at each other, exactly, Proxy wars in Afghanistan, proxy wars like in Southeast Asia. These things happen, but this presents a situation where it could possibly be a genuine military conflict the likes of which we haven't seen since World War Two.

Right, and they fire at each other, exactly, Proxy wars in Afghanistan, proxy wars like in Southeast Asia. These things happen, but this presents a situation where it could possibly be a genuine military conflict the likes of which we haven't seen since World War Two.

And just if you wanted to have an example of how important naval bases are to the Russian Federation Russian Federation of States, is how to say it to Russia. You just you can look to several years ago in Ukraine and Crimea and the handling of some of the shipping and naval bases that were so important in that region to the country, and the actions that were taken to make sure those were secured. Just if you if you want to take those as examples, you can understand how important this stuff is, especially if then you multiply it by the scale that it would be in the Arctic.

And just if you wanted to have an example of how important naval bases are to the Russian Federation Russian Federation of States, is how to say it to Russia. You just you can look to several years ago in Ukraine and Crimea and the handling of some of the shipping and naval bases that were so important in that region to the country, and the actions that were taken to make sure those were secured. Just if you if you want to take those as examples, you can understand how important this stuff is, especially if then you multiply it by the scale that it would be in the Arctic.

Absolutely, absolutely, that's the next all example in Crimea itself has It was sad to see that drop out of the news cycle because the story of Crimea it self is fascinating, and it doesn't it doesn't start, you know, just a few years ago when Russia invaded or excuse me, when.

Absolutely, absolutely, that's the next all example in Crimea itself has It was sad to see that drop out of the news cycle because the story of Crimea it self is fascinating, and it doesn't it doesn't start, you know, just a few years ago when Russia invaded or excuse me, when.

When patriots in Crimea, guys with.

When patriots in Crimea, guys with.

Balaklava's right, Yeah, Anyway, there are people some of us listening are saying, all right, guys, that's a little alarmist.

Balaklava's right, Yeah, Anyway, there are people some of us listening are saying, all right, guys, that's a little alarmist.

You're going cold war on us.

You're going cold war on us.

You're going cold war, You're going hot war on us, You're going World War three on us, because that's what you're essentially implied. Right. The problem is that now we are not talking about two nations fighting over a border, and we have not been talking about that sort of thing in world politics and world militaries for decades. Everybody is crewed up now. Every country is in some sort of gang to one degree or another. And a war with a European country who's a member of NATO means that you're beefing with all of NATO. Yeah, And if you are starting to fight with Russia, you're starting to fight with all of Russia's buddies as well. And now that this previously inaccessible part of the world may be up for grabs, everybody wants a peace. We talked about the Arctic Council, those five eight nations.

You're going cold war, You're going hot war on us, You're going World War three on us, because that's what you're essentially implied. Right. The problem is that now we are not talking about two nations fighting over a border, and we have not been talking about that sort of thing in world politics and world militaries for decades. Everybody is crewed up now. Every country is in some sort of gang to one degree or another. And a war with a European country who's a member of NATO means that you're beefing with all of NATO. Yeah, And if you are starting to fight with Russia, you're starting to fight with all of Russia's buddies as well. And now that this previously inaccessible part of the world may be up for grabs, everybody wants a peace. We talked about the Arctic Council, those five eight nations.

So that's Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the US.

So that's Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the US.

But again, when we say everybody wants a peace, we mean picture that Gary Oldman, give everyone everything, right. China, Japan, and South Korea all also want to be involved in Arctic affairs, and China is the PRC People's Republic of China is the biggest player in this game, or at least the most visible about it. China recently declared itself to be a quote near Arctic state, which is weird. Yeah, which is weird because if you look at this scale of just you know, I'll be I'll be a jerk about it. If you look at the scale of the Solar system, every state is a near arctic state. Okay, it's like what what is what is not a near Arctic state? Is is Uganda or the Bahamas or those not near Arctic states? Sure? Sure, arguably right, But that's that's a very relative term, you know what I mean? You could you could be you could be like a little north or south of the equator and then call yourself an near Antarctic State because you're closer slightly to Antarctica.

But again, when we say everybody wants a peace, we mean picture that Gary Oldman, give everyone everything, right. China, Japan, and South Korea all also want to be involved in Arctic affairs, and China is the PRC People's Republic of China is the biggest player in this game, or at least the most visible about it. China recently declared itself to be a quote near Arctic state, which is weird. Yeah, which is weird because if you look at this scale of just you know, I'll be I'll be a jerk about it. If you look at the scale of the Solar system, every state is a near arctic state. Okay, it's like what what is what is not a near Arctic state? Is is Uganda or the Bahamas or those not near Arctic states? Sure? Sure, arguably right, But that's that's a very relative term, you know what I mean? You could you could be you could be like a little north or south of the equator and then call yourself an near Antarctic State because you're closer slightly to Antarctica.

There you go.

There you go.

I don't know, I just I think it's I think it's slippery semantics. But they say they're in New Arctic State, and in January twenty eighteen, they unveiled their plans for a polar silk route, announcing that the country of China is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. I would agree with that because of just the sheer volume of stuff shipping to and from that country.

I don't know, I just I think it's I think it's slippery semantics. But they say they're in New Arctic State, and in January twenty eighteen, they unveiled their plans for a polar silk route, announcing that the country of China is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. I would agree with that because of just the sheer volume of stuff shipping to and from that country.

Yes, and that's exactly what they're interested in. They want to be able to ship everything through there and save that thirty percent or however much they would end up saving shipping things. And since twenty thirteen they've been they've had observer status in the Arctic Council because they've kind of seen this on the horizon on the both climate horizon as well as the geopolitical horizon. So it's just something to keep your eye on for sure.

Yes, and that's exactly what they're interested in. They want to be able to ship everything through there and save that thirty percent or however much they would end up saving shipping things. And since twenty thirteen they've been they've had observer status in the Arctic Council because they've kind of seen this on the horizon on the both climate horizon as well as the geopolitical horizon. So it's just something to keep your eye on for sure.

Right And they've been building influence in this area for as you said, Matt, for some time. But the issue here goes into the question of how closely trade and military action may or may not be related, and.

Right And they've been building influence in this area for as you said, Matt, for some time. But the issue here goes into the question of how closely trade and military action may or may not be related, and.

When we talked about deals like, it's not just those countries with the Northeast and the Northwest passage, it's people making deals with those countries. And to this effect, Beijing was talking specifically with Canada and Russia to work out some kind of free trade agreement with both of these countries with some of the Scandinavian nations that are up there to you know, for China essentially to infuse money into some of the bigger projects that are happening in those areas. Specifically, there's one called the Yamal Lng project that which has to do with natural gas and oil capturing through Russia. And there are other projects in the US in Alaska that are doing you know, pretty much the same thing.

When we talked about deals like, it's not just those countries with the Northeast and the Northwest passage, it's people making deals with those countries. And to this effect, Beijing was talking specifically with Canada and Russia to work out some kind of free trade agreement with both of these countries with some of the Scandinavian nations that are up there to you know, for China essentially to infuse money into some of the bigger projects that are happening in those areas. Specifically, there's one called the Yamal Lng project that which has to do with natural gas and oil capturing through Russia. And there are other projects in the US in Alaska that are doing you know, pretty much the same thing.

As well as Canada.

As well as Canada.

And it's just it's China, like you said, Ben, trying to have it seat at the table, to get in on the ground floor with these projects as investors, to then have a stake in other parts of it.

And it's just it's China, like you said, Ben, trying to have it seat at the table, to get in on the ground floor with these projects as investors, to then have a stake in other parts of it.

Right, right, if the legal framework of geopolitics won't work, then surely the financial framework of who owes who money will will deliver. Right there you go, And let's real quick on the timeline here. According to NASA Global Climate models predict the Arctic will be ice free during the summer months by the middle of this century. Wo so by twenty fifty And that's very much a ballpark that could be that that could mean anywhere from twenty forty to twenty fifty five, you know.

Right, right, if the legal framework of geopolitics won't work, then surely the financial framework of who owes who money will will deliver. Right there you go, And let's real quick on the timeline here. According to NASA Global Climate models predict the Arctic will be ice free during the summer months by the middle of this century. Wo so by twenty fifty And that's very much a ballpark that could be that that could mean anywhere from twenty forty to twenty fifty five, you know.

So it's so weird with timescales because it feels so long term, and yet that is fully short term to twenty fifty.

So it's so weird with timescales because it feels so long term, and yet that is fully short term to twenty fifty.

Yes, that is not long at all.

Yes, that is not long at all.

Hey man, you'll probably you'll probably be here.

Hey man, you'll probably you'll probably be here.

I don't know.

I don't know.

Maybe you should schedu go ahead and book your tickets now my cruise, your artic cruise. You can take it on a Chinese icebreaker. Perhaps the snow Dragon two and the snow Dragon one have already been created and there's an expedition scheduled for the first half of twenty nineteen. This is also happening in This is happening in a zero sum environment. To be absolutely clear, what that means is that there there's a finite amount of power, there's a finite amount of territory, and there's a finite amount of resource to be extracted.

Maybe you should schedu go ahead and book your tickets now my cruise, your artic cruise. You can take it on a Chinese icebreaker. Perhaps the snow Dragon two and the snow Dragon one have already been created and there's an expedition scheduled for the first half of twenty nineteen. This is also happening in This is happening in a zero sum environment. To be absolutely clear, what that means is that there there's a finite amount of power, there's a finite amount of territory, and there's a finite amount of resource to be extracted.

So why there are a lot of resources that we'll get into.

So why there are a lot of resources that we'll get into.

Right the annual the economy of this region could exceed four hundred and fifty billion dollars US. We're bringing up just that point because the government of China has been quick to capitalize on what they see as lack of expertise and interest from the US from Uncle Sam from Washington, d C. And that's not related to in let's not related to any particular administration. These big boy rules. We're talking about the way other countries look at each other. But real politics tells us other countries only care about what's happening domestically in a different country if it will help their bottom line or give them an opportunity to require more power and influence on the global stage.

Right the annual the economy of this region could exceed four hundred and fifty billion dollars US. We're bringing up just that point because the government of China has been quick to capitalize on what they see as lack of expertise and interest from the US from Uncle Sam from Washington, d C. And that's not related to in let's not related to any particular administration. These big boy rules. We're talking about the way other countries look at each other. But real politics tells us other countries only care about what's happening domestically in a different country if it will help their bottom line or give them an opportunity to require more power and influence on the global stage.

Can I use this right?

Can I use this right?

Can I use this otherwise? Why are you telling me we have problems of our own? Says every country? So resources, that's why. That's That's ultimately what it comes down to.

Can I use this otherwise? Why are you telling me we have problems of our own? Says every country? So resources, that's why. That's That's ultimately what it comes down to.

Almost every time I'm on the show, Yeah, almost every time, not every time.

Almost every time I'm on the show, Yeah, almost every time, not every time.

Almost every time in history.

Almost every time in history.

Yeah, you know.

Yeah, you know.

It might be dressed up as values or interest or national security, national security or someone's religion makes you know, gets us in a stink or whatever, But really, ultimately that's that's all window dressing. It's all a nice sided ketchup to the actual fries, which are resources. So yes, they're tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to controlling the Arctic. But why are those important? Because it boils down to what can you get from there and what can you move across there? That's it.

It might be dressed up as values or interest or national security, national security or someone's religion makes you know, gets us in a stink or whatever, But really, ultimately that's that's all window dressing. It's all a nice sided ketchup to the actual fries, which are resources. So yes, they're tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to controlling the Arctic. But why are those important? Because it boils down to what can you get from there and what can you move across there? That's it.

So resources, But why are they so important? Let's get into that right after a quick word from our sponsor.

So resources, But why are they so important? Let's get into that right after a quick word from our sponsor.

So here's the thing. You nailed it in one word, that resources. Every every conflict is about resources. Right, We've said this before. We don't just mean it in post World War two. We don't just mean it in terms of Russia grabbing crimea or something. We mean throughout human history, throughout the span of our civilization, virtually every large scale conflict has been about resources. Now it'll be dressed up, you know, there will be some window dressing, especially in democracies. Right, it will be like, oh, it's our values, right, yeah, Or what's another one.

So here's the thing. You nailed it in one word, that resources. Every every conflict is about resources. Right, We've said this before. We don't just mean it in post World War two. We don't just mean it in terms of Russia grabbing crimea or something. We mean throughout human history, throughout the span of our civilization, virtually every large scale conflict has been about resources. Now it'll be dressed up, you know, there will be some window dressing, especially in democracies. Right, it will be like, oh, it's our values, right, yeah, Or what's another one.

It presents a national security risk there we go.

It presents a national security risk there we go.

Or you know, if you go a little further back, these people's religion is bad to us.

Or you know, if you go a little further back, these people's religion is bad to us.

Yeah, that lumber that's all over there, that has nothing to do with it.

Yeah, that lumber that's all over there, that has nothing to do with it.

That control of the bay has nothing to do with it.

That control of the bay has nothing to do with it.

The ability to send things down this river because you know, don't worry about that.

The ability to send things down this river because you know, don't worry about that.

Uh.

Uh.

Catholicism bad, And of course religious and racial discrimination is a real thing. It's also an avenue to justify taking stuff from people.

Catholicism bad, And of course religious and racial discrimination is a real thing. It's also an avenue to justify taking stuff from people.

It's a lever you can pull.

It's a lever you can pull.

It's yeah, it's very much. War is very much a stuff oriented thing.

It's yeah, it's very much. War is very much a stuff oriented thing.

Are we too cynical or is this? I mean, this feels so real to me and I've seen it happen so many times throughout history. I'm not being too cynical in these thoughts, am I?

Are we too cynical or is this? I mean, this feels so real to me and I've seen it happen so many times throughout history. I'm not being too cynical in these thoughts, am I?

Because I really do feel like this is just the truth.

Because I really do feel like this is just the truth.

I am the worst person to ask because I completely agree with you, Matt. I mean there are okay, so yes, it's true, there are tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to having control over all or some of the Arctic, especially those shipping routes. But why are they important? Why it's not bragging rights. It ultimately boils down to resource extraction. What can we get from there? What can we move across there? In two thousand and eight, the US Geological Service estimated that the Arctic alone contains more than one six hundred and sixty nine trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

I am the worst person to ask because I completely agree with you, Matt. I mean there are okay, so yes, it's true, there are tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to having control over all or some of the Arctic, especially those shipping routes. But why are they important? Why it's not bragging rights. It ultimately boils down to resource extraction. What can we get from there? What can we move across there? In two thousand and eight, the US Geological Service estimated that the Arctic alone contains more than one six hundred and sixty nine trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

O m GIA. So this amount is massive.

O m GIA. So this amount is massive.

It's about thirty percent of all of the world's remaining supply of natural gas that has not been in some way found developed or begun to be extracted. This is that number is almost four times the entire United States reserves that exists right now.

It's about thirty percent of all of the world's remaining supply of natural gas that has not been in some way found developed or begun to be extracted. This is that number is almost four times the entire United States reserves that exists right now.

And that this number also does not include what are called methane hydrates on the seabed, which can also be converted to a very valuable resource. The addition of this stuff, if it ever becomes cost effective to extract it, which is a big deal, which is a huge deal, could boost potential reserves exponentially. In addition, there are probably around forty four billion barrels of natural gas liquids and ninety billion barrels of oil. That's about thirteen percent of the undeveloped oil reserves on the planet. In one place, the Geological Service estimates that eighty four percent of the Arctic's hydrocarbons are offshore. Sixty percent of the Arctic oil is in Russian territory, and not just in the territory that the Russian government thinks belongs to it, which is different, but in the territory that everybody sort of agrees belongs to it. So according to their surveys, the Russian surveys, ninety percent more than ninety percent of the hydrocarbon reserves are located in the Arctic zone of the Siberian Continental Shelf, And without going into the weeds too much, this is a commercial powder keg. This could guarantee Russia's seat at the table. One of the criticisms that you'll hear about Russia pretty often is that Russia is pretending to be a world power or a superpower. It's got a lot of domestic problems, as we all do. Again, you know, most other world leaders care about that to the point that it might present an opportunity for them, but otherwise it's like, not my job, not my problem. And so the criticism that you'll hear about Russia is that they have two things that give them a seat at the table, a nuclear arsenal and gas reserves. Okay, hydrocarbon reserves. So if they were able to exponentially increase the amount of stuff that they control in a hydrocarbon economy, then they also they also increase their prominence and importance and influence in world affairs. You know, there were times a few years back, not so long ago, in recent history, while we were alive, when Russia could literally just turn off the gas supply to a large swath of Europe just if they wanted to, just you know, I like fun, Like, what else are you doing on a Friday? That's power, That is power is power. It's not clear, however, yet, whether these reserves are whether it makes sense to get them right now?

And that this number also does not include what are called methane hydrates on the seabed, which can also be converted to a very valuable resource. The addition of this stuff, if it ever becomes cost effective to extract it, which is a big deal, which is a huge deal, could boost potential reserves exponentially. In addition, there are probably around forty four billion barrels of natural gas liquids and ninety billion barrels of oil. That's about thirteen percent of the undeveloped oil reserves on the planet. In one place, the Geological Service estimates that eighty four percent of the Arctic's hydrocarbons are offshore. Sixty percent of the Arctic oil is in Russian territory, and not just in the territory that the Russian government thinks belongs to it, which is different, but in the territory that everybody sort of agrees belongs to it. So according to their surveys, the Russian surveys, ninety percent more than ninety percent of the hydrocarbon reserves are located in the Arctic zone of the Siberian Continental Shelf, And without going into the weeds too much, this is a commercial powder keg. This could guarantee Russia's seat at the table. One of the criticisms that you'll hear about Russia pretty often is that Russia is pretending to be a world power or a superpower. It's got a lot of domestic problems, as we all do. Again, you know, most other world leaders care about that to the point that it might present an opportunity for them, but otherwise it's like, not my job, not my problem. And so the criticism that you'll hear about Russia is that they have two things that give them a seat at the table, a nuclear arsenal and gas reserves. Okay, hydrocarbon reserves. So if they were able to exponentially increase the amount of stuff that they control in a hydrocarbon economy, then they also they also increase their prominence and importance and influence in world affairs. You know, there were times a few years back, not so long ago, in recent history, while we were alive, when Russia could literally just turn off the gas supply to a large swath of Europe just if they wanted to, just you know, I like fun, Like, what else are you doing on a Friday? That's power, That is power is power. It's not clear, however, yet, whether these reserves are whether it makes sense to get them right now?

Oh yes, of now, well, yeah, that's the whole thing.

Oh yes, of now, well, yeah, that's the whole thing.

It's building the infrastructure and the having the technology to be able to extract that stuff from the depths where it exists in those cold temperatures and all the all the other factors. Even if it begins melting, it's still a tremendous It would be a tremendous achievement to be able to get that, and it would cost so much money, which is one of the biggest problems here. There's this thing called the International Energy Agency.

It's building the infrastructure and the having the technology to be able to extract that stuff from the depths where it exists in those cold temperatures and all the all the other factors. Even if it begins melting, it's still a tremendous It would be a tremendous achievement to be able to get that, and it would cost so much money, which is one of the biggest problems here. There's this thing called the International Energy Agency.

Or the IEA.

Or the IEA.

We love to read those, and they believe that in order to make this economically feasible to do to extract this, you know, the oil and natural gas here, the average price essentially of oil would have to be around one hundred and twenty dollars per barrel for the development for this to even work, to make to have it make sense, you can make money back, so you're not just throwing money into the Arctic in order to make some back.

We love to read those, and they believe that in order to make this economically feasible to do to extract this, you know, the oil and natural gas here, the average price essentially of oil would have to be around one hundred and twenty dollars per barrel for the development for this to even work, to make to have it make sense, you can make money back, so you're not just throwing money into the Arctic in order to make some back.

Right, and for perspective, right now, as we're recording it, crude oil probably averaged around sixty five bucks a barrel or so, yeah, February of this year, so oil would almost have to double.

Right, and for perspective, right now, as we're recording it, crude oil probably averaged around sixty five bucks a barrel or so, yeah, February of this year, so oil would almost have to double.

You got to make some calls to the opequ big heads and talk to them.

You got to make some calls to the opequ big heads and talk to them.

I think, yeah, they're also cutting production right, Yeah, and rush is part of the conversation. Oh man, different show. So there's all so the cost of creating all the infrastructure you need to get this stuff out right, This is no longer Beverly Hillbilly's land. Kudos to anyone I got that reference. They will have to build around one trillion US dollars worth or sixty nine trillion rubles worth of stuff to extract this oil, to process it, to make it something that they can sell, and they don't have this country, Russia does not have the technology so far as we know, to exploit those deep water deposits. Yet additionally, a lot of the stuff they do have to extract energy from this part of the world was not designed to cope with this part of the world melting.

I think, yeah, they're also cutting production right, Yeah, and rush is part of the conversation. Oh man, different show. So there's all so the cost of creating all the infrastructure you need to get this stuff out right, This is no longer Beverly Hillbilly's land. Kudos to anyone I got that reference. They will have to build around one trillion US dollars worth or sixty nine trillion rubles worth of stuff to extract this oil, to process it, to make it something that they can sell, and they don't have this country, Russia does not have the technology so far as we know, to exploit those deep water deposits. Yet additionally, a lot of the stuff they do have to extract energy from this part of the world was not designed to cope with this part of the world melting.

Yeah, it's designed to be in the frozen areas. You can see some that thing that we mentioned a little earlier, the Jamal LNG project. You can actually see images of what some of the some of it looks like. And it is just built on essentially ice. I mean, it is just built on ice inside ice. And if that were all to melt, it would it would quickly change how that how that whole system functions, how that facility functions.

Yeah, it's designed to be in the frozen areas. You can see some that thing that we mentioned a little earlier, the Jamal LNG project. You can actually see images of what some of the some of it looks like. And it is just built on essentially ice. I mean, it is just built on ice inside ice. And if that were all to melt, it would it would quickly change how that how that whole system functions, how that facility functions.

It could create a large issue.

It could create a large issue.

Yeah, absolutely, because there's gonna be a liminal space. There's gonna be a transition period. Earth does not work on light switches, you know what I mean. What's gonna happen is that stuff will stuff will begin to melt, and eventually, when it melts to a to a high enough degree, there will be avenues to access this hidden oil, these hidden hydrocarbons. But before it reaches that point, it's it'll just be muddy and things will be not quite accessible. But all the stuff we built before will not work. Yeah, so there's going to be this worse before it gets better scenario, and that's when that's when the series of battles will start. These will be happening concurrently. The battles already started in the courtroom. That's where a lot of international battles start. Primary disagreements here, as you already point out, met concern what we think of as international waters and what we think of as sovereign waters or territory controlled by a single nation or an uncalling now eventually a single corporation. So conflicting claims the Arctic date back to at least nineteen twenty five, when Canada said that, all right, we're going to say our maritime border extends to cover everything from sixty degrees west to one hundred and forty one degrees west and then northward all the way to the North Pole and the North Pole. Remember this nineteen twenty five, So the North Pole had just been reached in nineteen oh nine and Canada was like, let's get on it. So they also claim these very channels and straits that constitute what we call the Northwest Passage are part of its internal waters, not international. You want to travel on this road you have to play with us. The US and other countries have argued that this is complete malarchy. Yeah, there's an international waterway. You have to let us go free and unencumbered, which means we can come and go as we please. This is one example. There are a ton of other examples. Russias and a lot of them because they control a lot of the coastline. Now the battle has been moving forward symbolically. In two thousand and five the Russian Arctica Expedition, which was the first manned descent to the seafloor beneath the North Pole.

Yeah, absolutely, because there's gonna be a liminal space. There's gonna be a transition period. Earth does not work on light switches, you know what I mean. What's gonna happen is that stuff will stuff will begin to melt, and eventually, when it melts to a to a high enough degree, there will be avenues to access this hidden oil, these hidden hydrocarbons. But before it reaches that point, it's it'll just be muddy and things will be not quite accessible. But all the stuff we built before will not work. Yeah, so there's going to be this worse before it gets better scenario, and that's when that's when the series of battles will start. These will be happening concurrently. The battles already started in the courtroom. That's where a lot of international battles start. Primary disagreements here, as you already point out, met concern what we think of as international waters and what we think of as sovereign waters or territory controlled by a single nation or an uncalling now eventually a single corporation. So conflicting claims the Arctic date back to at least nineteen twenty five, when Canada said that, all right, we're going to say our maritime border extends to cover everything from sixty degrees west to one hundred and forty one degrees west and then northward all the way to the North Pole and the North Pole. Remember this nineteen twenty five, So the North Pole had just been reached in nineteen oh nine and Canada was like, let's get on it. So they also claim these very channels and straits that constitute what we call the Northwest Passage are part of its internal waters, not international. You want to travel on this road you have to play with us. The US and other countries have argued that this is complete malarchy. Yeah, there's an international waterway. You have to let us go free and unencumbered, which means we can come and go as we please. This is one example. There are a ton of other examples. Russias and a lot of them because they control a lot of the coastline. Now the battle has been moving forward symbolically. In two thousand and five the Russian Arctica Expedition, which was the first manned descent to the seafloor beneath the North Pole.

And this is baller, by the way.

And this is baller, by the way.

If they planted a Russian flag made of titanium on the Arctic floor at the geographical.

If they planted a Russian flag made of titanium on the Arctic floor at the geographical.

Pole, Wow, that's what's up.

Pole, Wow, that's what's up.

I thought it was Yeah, I thought it was a power move. The US and Canada Denmark thought so too, but they didn't think it was cool. No, and the Kremlins they said, what are you doing. You can't just say this belongs to you. And the Kremlin said it was not asserting sovereignity. And this is where we found this excellent caddy quote from Russian Foreign Minister Sergi Lavarov.

I thought it was Yeah, I thought it was a power move. The US and Canada Denmark thought so too, but they didn't think it was cool. No, and the Kremlins they said, what are you doing. You can't just say this belongs to you. And the Kremlin said it was not asserting sovereignity. And this is where we found this excellent caddy quote from Russian Foreign Minister Sergi Lavarov.

We're not throwing flags around. We just do what other discoverers did. The purpose of the expedition is not to skates whatever rights of Russia, but to prove that our shelf extends to the North Pole. By the way, on the Moon, it was the same. Remember when you planted that America flag on the Moon.