Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors joins the podcast this week, offering a robust framework for assessing the negotiability and sustainability of tariffs, as well as the long-term implications for asset and FX markets.

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors joins the podcast this week, offering a robust framework for assessing the negotiability and sustainability of tariffs, as well as the long-term implications for asset and FX markets.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide. 

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Street Signals

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world&rsquo;s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street&rsquo;s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Tariffs: The Price Is Fright

After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, notes, high conviction views are in short supply. This week, we think about how to navigate the onset of summer and whether the ennui of recent weeks makes it a time to 'sell in May and go away', as the old trading adage goes. Or, if just the 'go away' part will suffice.

After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, notes, high conviction views are in short supply. This week, we think about how to navigate the onset of summer and whether the ennui of recent weeks makes it a time to 'sell in May and go away', as the old trading adage goes. Or, if just the 'go away' part will suffice.

No Country For Old Macro Men

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.

Repricing Markets for US Political Risk

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ground-breaking research into the effects that the Liberation Day tariffs are having on retail prices and he offers helpful context in how to understand better the timing and scale of the inflation trends that look most likely to emerge in their wake.

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ground-breaking research into the effects that the Liberation Day tariffs are having on retail prices and he offers helpful context in how to understand better the timing and scale of the inflation trends that look most likely to emerge in their wake.

Tariffs: The Price Is Fright

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