Low and stable currency market volatility is feeding interest in yield-seeking strategies to a degree not seen in years. How long can the good times last and carry remain king? This week, we put the current period of low FX volatility into historic market context and note any early warning signs of a change in fortunes for strategies that sell volatility and earn yield. Fred Goodwin makes a cameo contribution, to offer a final, cautionary note on the specific dynamics in emerging markets.

Low and stable currency market volatility is feeding interest in yield-seeking strategies to a degree not seen in years. How long can the good times last and carry remain king? This week, we put the current period of low FX volatility into historic market context and note any early warning signs of a change in fortunes for strategies that sell volatility and earn yield. Fred Goodwin makes a cameo contribution, to offer a final, cautionary note on the specific dynamics in emerging markets.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide. 

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world&rsquo;s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street&rsquo;s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.&nbsp;

Street Signals

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world&rsquo;s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street&rsquo;s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

How Long Can Carry Remain King?

Just before Christmas, it's tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of that document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!

Just before Christmas, it's tradition for the&nbsp;Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our <a href="https://globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/myportal/insights/dashboard?theme=All">Insights</a> platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of that document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!

The Best Reads of 2025

After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA Head of Trading, for his thoughts on the state of the US labor market, inflation, policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan, and the other critical drivers for rates and FX around the world.

After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-12-trades-of-risk-mas-a-2026-macro-outlook/id1692292577?i=1000739632006">here</a>), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA Head of Trading, for his thoughts on the state of the US labor market, inflation, policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan, and the other critical drivers for rates and FX around the world.

Trading Notes for '26

The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which themes will continue into and emerge from 2026.

The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which themes will continue into and emerge from 2026.

How Long Can Carry Remain King?

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