Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their post-COVID economy. Ramu Thiagarajan, a senior investment advisor for State Street, and Yuting Shao, one of our emerging market strategists in Asia, join the podcast to discuss a recent paper outlining the steps China will likely need to consider in sidestepping the looming threats of debt and deflation.

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their post-COVID economy. Ramu Thiagarajan, a senior investment advisor for State Street, and Yuting Shao, one of our emerging market strategists in Asia, join the podcast to discuss a recent paper outlining the steps China will likely need to consider in sidestepping the looming threats of debt and deflation.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide. 

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Street Signals

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Global Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Global Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Can China Avoid the Japan Trap?

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at GeoQuant, who takes us around the world, modelling risk in geopolitics and focusing on the probability of seismic changes for markets.

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at GeoQuant, who takes us around the world, modelling risk in geopolitics and focusing on the probability of seismic changes for markets.

The 2024 Election Super Cycle

This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot.  Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the audience in a rapid-fire, Shark Tank-style presentation, with ideas as wide-ranging as how to think about US Financials, the US yield curve and the state of Emerging Market FX carry trades.

This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot. Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the audience in a rapid-fire, Shark Tank-style presentation, with ideas as wide-ranging as how to think about US Financials, the US yield curve and the state of Emerging Market FX carry trades.

Shark Tank 2024: The Best Trade Ideas for the Rest of the Year

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a high-yielder, many of most popular and profitable carry trading strategies in FX markets over the last 18 months hinge on the path these two currencies take. This week, we take a deep dive into the world's second and fifth-largest economies, with a special focus on the forthcoming Indian election results and their impact, with the help of four of our Macro Strategy and Trading colleagues in the region.

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a high-yielder, many of most popular and profitable carry trading strategies in FX markets over the last 18 months hinge on the path these two currencies take. This week, we take a deep dive into the world's second and fifth-largest economies, with a special focus on the forthcoming Indian election results and their impact, with the help of four of our Macro Strategy and Trading colleagues in the region.

Can China Avoid the Japan Trap?

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