Creating Catalonia From Scratch

Published Oct 19, 2017, 10:00 AM

How do you create a new country? For Catalonians looking for independence from Spain, secession can give you an emotional high, but what about the bills? Every nation needs a sense of identity and community, of shared heritage and geography. That won't feed people. There's revenue to be collected and bills to be paid, not to mention possibly issuing currency and creating a central bank. And don't forget about picking up the trash. Bloomberg's Maria Tadeo and Maxime Sbaihi explain the building blocks of statehood to Scott and Dan. 

How do you create a state from scratch? Secession can feel pretty good, and every nation needs to have a sense of itself, its identity and where it comes from. But that doesn't make a state. Currency needs to be issued and printed. Revenue needs to be collected, Bills need to be paid, Armies need to be raised at a more mundane level, Trash needs to be collected. How does all this stuff get done and how many breakaway movements actually give it much thought. Catalonia, a region of Spain that's seeking to go its own way, is a good case study. Welcome to Benchmark, a show about the global economy. I'm Daniel Moss from Bloomberg View in New York, and I'm Scott landman and economics editor with Bloomberg in Washington. The plumbing of a potential news state, how the machinery of government would actually work might seem pretty mundane in the midst of a heady nationalist campaign, but it's the stuff that determines whether a country succeeds or fails. Joining us is Maria today O, a Bloomberg News reporter who has been covering the Catalan independence scene. And Max seems Spy, an economist for Bloomberg Intelligence in London. Let's bring in Maria first, where she is on the scene in Barcelona. Maria, there's been a lot of developments on this story lately, but if you can just take a step back and sit and and tell us a little bit about why the Catalans, or why Catalonia wants to declare independence, or why they're moving in this direction or they have been moving in this direction for several years. A lot of people would tell you to have to do with identity, how to do with the fact that they have their own language, their own history, and the fact that it's always been a very distinct region within Spain to this ghost center is back, So a lot of people would tell you that's where it starts. Having said that, you'd also get an argument that, you know, there's kind of started in two thousand six when they were meant to have new regional powers and a new regional kind of framework for the way regional powers are inactive in Spain, and then uh that prompted a backlash from Madrid who said, look, they're going too far. They're kind of presented themselves as a nation and we have to water down to the bill, right, So a lot of people will tell you that's when it started, and obviously the real frustration kicked out in two thousand and twelve, when obviously the crisis in Spain really began to fight, and it began to fight hard and the Catalan administration's pockets. Now, they would tell you this is unfair for us because we pay a lot of taxes to Madrid, which then get distributed to the rest of Spain, but we don't get a fair deal because we're putting way too much money in Then we get back in terms of infratchurch to expending and more investment in the region. So a lot of people tell you have to do with history, but also the fact that there's been a series of maybe political issues lately, and obviously the fact that there was a crisism. This is a man it's very essence question about money. Now, there are many parts of individual countries that have unique culture, unique language, unique way of looking at the world. That alone doesn't give you the building block of a state. You can see yourself as a nation, but you also need to have a state. How much thought has gone into what the state would look like and how it would work. That's a great question. And in fact, you can look at Spain and see other regions that also have their own language, that also have their own history, and that you know, have had a very strong regional identity for century. So obviously within Spain, Catalonia is not an exception. You can say there's other regions that also are the same case would apply. Now the question is how do you become a state and most brutantly, who is getting to recognize your state? Well, so far Catalonia, you know, there's basic infrastructure and basic structures that they lack and they've admitted to this, like having their own tax agency. The money the taxes are collected to the central government's tax agency, so again that's something that Madrid has powers over. Then you know, if you look at things like territorial and border control, that's something that Madrid has control over. So again it's a question of do you have the fundamental infrastructure that you need. The Catalan government will tell you we do. However, they've never been tested or friend to the test, so there are question marks to whether they would ever work. So I, as an Australian and an American, if I wish to travel to the country to the state of Catalonia. Do I need a visa? What currency should I take with me? What's the banking system like? Do they have any relationships with banks here in the United States? Has anyone thought about this? Yeah, that is a good point, and essentially what the Catalan government will tell you. It's like, there's no way we're going to get kicked out of the European Union. We're going to get to give the euro and you won't need a password to get in and out of California because we would be a European country. Now the point that here is no one from the European Commission, which is you know with obviously exercises power, has come out and said this would be the case. In fact, we're a getting the opposite, the commissioners saying, look as a dance the law that prevails in the Spanish Constitutional Court and and we don't think this is a valid rerough erendum. Again, this all goes back to the very basics of it, is this a legal vote? And as do they have legal mandate? So far we don't think that's the case because no one has recognized this, and have they put tho into this. Yes, But again, what you hear from the Catalan administration is that they think life would go on as normal as they're guarantee that that would be the case at this point, not really. If Catalonia were actually to become independent from Spain, given catalonious role in the Spanish economy, like you were just talking about, you know, it's basically a more prosperous area than the rest of the country, would it be pretty devastating for the economy of the rest of Spain. Yeah, I would obviously have an impact on the Spanish economy and sent there's no no one can deny that business, the powerhouse economy, their rivals Madrid essentially and the bad country too, And obviously it would have an impact on the broader nation, there's no question. But again the question markets what could happen to an endependent Catalonia. You need to keep in mind that a lot of the businesses that you know are based in Catalonia actually do a lot more business with the rest of saying that they do with you know, inside Catalonia. And also this opens up a broader question, which is, well, they get to keep the same trade relationship with the European Union if they were to separate and that is obviously a much bigger question. Now you can live without Spain, but without access to the European market, that's a much broader issues, right because Catalonia would be a separate country. Therefore it would have to go through EU entry procedure is and until that time it would not be in the EU, which means they can't use the Euro, which means they don't have a trade relationship in the Single Market, which means they have to use the w t O, which means they'd be subject to tariffs. What will they call their currency? Who will run their central bank? I just get the impression no one's really thought with any intellectual rigor about this. Well, that's a good point, and again it's a it's a question that you're never actually able to get a clear answer from the Catalan administration because they insist that there's going to be no need to return back to an old currency. Again, if you remember before the europe Catalonia has a Spanish perseta. So the question is would you go back to an old Spanish currency or would you create your own? And the factor is in the Canal administration doesn't really have answers to these questions because they always insist we're not going to get get out and we're not going to be forced out of the years, and so we're going to get to keep the euro. Obviously, when you look at the market reaction and businesses here, they think the answer may not be as clear cut, which is why we got more than twenty companies leaving the region since the referendum take place, and why two of the region's biggest banks, Cash A Bank and Sava Day decided to move their headquarters, like if they wanted to send a strong message to the market that no matter what happens, we're going to be a US and bank backed up by the European central banks. Precisely because we don't have a concrete answer on this, and what would happen if you're trying to have this conversation with the people in the square waving the flags, carrying the candles, what's a central bank, what's the currency, what's a tax? Exactly? This is this is a very emotional uh topic of conversation here in Catalonia. There are people who would say, look, we have obviously it's not going to be easy, but we think we can get it done. And again go back to the point that we're not going to get it out from the European Union. Some other people just don't question it. They think, look, it's it's it's not going to be fine. And actually, if we did have to play a price, it might be worth it. You know, we're going to be an independent nation and this is what we want. It might mean the yet times again if you're rough, but actually it's worth it in the end. There are some others today, especially the business community doesn't certaintly. We don't like it. There's lack of clarity, we don't like it. And again the business community reached out to the cattle Original president Carlos such A mornents that we need to find a middle way to get uh, you know, an altitude this issue and the cattle in issue, because again for the business community, it's really not clear cut. The business would go on as usual. Maria. It's an interesting story with many more dimensions than we can even cover on day to day basis. Thank you so much for taking the time to talk with us. I'm not to worry any time. Let's go now to maxim As Bohy. He's an economist with Bloomberg Intelligence in London. Maxine, thanks for joining us today. Thank you for inviting me. I read a piece that you and your colleagues at BI wrote recently and pretty down bet on how Catalonia would function or the challenges that they would face as an independent nation. You I was really struck by a line that you said that Catalonia could find itself combining trade arrangements worse than those of post Brexit Britain, with a monetary system more like Kosovos. That doesn't sound too good. Can you tell me a little bit more? It sounds a bit scary, yes, indeed. Um, So in this piece, what we did is actually trying to see what an independent Catalonia would look like economically. So our central scenario is that Catalonia won't declare independence, or as soon as they really do, the Spanish governments in Madrid is going to say his power by triggering Article on the fifty five of the Spanish Constitution. But in this piece, what we wanted to see is if Catalonia wins independence, how is it going to look like on an economic angle? And since they would probably exit the Eurozone, the European Union and they have no World Trade Organization membership, they would from day one, end up having no regulation, having no possibility teas of actually doing trade with the rest of the world. They would lose all the membership cards that Spain enjoys, and this would amount to being like in a situation like cost of all because of is using the Euro as a currency, but it's absolutely no influence on the monetary policy of the Eurozone. And at the same time, Brexit would actually be quite similar in a sense that all these trade agreements would from the one just disappear and you would end up having to go to the World Trade rules. But again Catalunia doesn't belong to the World Trade Organization, so even that would be not available for them, Unlike Brexit. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a country that exists. It's a member of the u N, it's a member of the i m F, it's a member of the World Bank. It's a thing exactly. There is no country Catalonia. So they're much worse. If they go their own way then the UK is now that's truth. They would they would have basically no international statues. There's a lot of state that. I mean, if you look at Kosovo, for example that happened two thousand and eight in the still the vast majority of states don't recognize Kosovo Catalunia. It would be it would be probably the same thing. They would have to go through a very long process if they if they would like to re enter the European Union, if they would like to re enter the euro Zone, you lose access from one day to the other, but then it takes years, I mean really years. Bulgaria, for example, has been waiting since two thousand seven to enter the euro Zone. So it's a very long process that you would have to go through. As soon as you declare independence from Spain. Have the people in California, or at least the leaders that are sort of pushing the independence movement, do they have this infrastructure set up already for the state ready to go if they declare independence or are they basically starting from scratch if if they were actually to become independent from Spain. So that's that's a good question. I think I think we should ask them the question. Obviously, I don't think that the state is fully prepared to do that, and I don't think that the citizens, when they voted in this very controversial referendum that the citizens exactly know what was at stake here. Declaring independence is one thing, but then telling the citizens if we do that, you will lose maybe your currency, you will lose, all the trade agreements, you might lose also obviously the all the travel freedom in Europe. I think there's much more at stake than what was on the ballot. And this is also why it's very controversial in Catalonia this referendum. The fact that only participated and the fact that there's a minority maybe or fifty fifty of the population that doesn't want independence. Right now, that's a revelation. The impression one gets from watching international TV channels, reading international newspapers is that this is a slam dunk as far as people in Cattle Larnier are concerned. You're saying only a minority five or breaking away. Well, if you look at the result of the referenum, so the referenum was illegal. So you have ninety percent or ninety percent saying they wanted independence, but only full percent voted during that referendum. So if you add up the figures, it's a minority. That doesn't mean that if more people had voted that the result would be different. But they're coming independent on such a small illegal, not legitimate, I would say, basis is questionable obviously, and we've seen some protests actually two weeks ago of the anti independence movements and there were i would say hundreds of thousands of people in the streets on Sunday for people just with the Spanish black saying we don't want to have independence. One must keep in mind that the regions in Spain already enjoy some autonomy. Catalonia as his own government, his own police, It has his own taxes, also national ones, but obviously more regional ones, so it or it is already enjoying some kind of autonomy. Obviously not enough for the people that want to push for independence. For example, they think they are giving too much money to the central state. There are net contributors to the national budget. But the bottom line here is that, yes, there are a lot of people in Catalonia that don't want to have independence. And this is why I think the best way to solve this problem would be to have a real vote, an actual vote in the good conditions, but this is very unlikely to happen anytime soon. Here's the bottom line for what Dan raised in our intro. Will the trash continue to be collected in Catalonia? Isn't at all that really matters in the end? Well, at the end of disruption in Catalan's daily life. If they really go to independence, if they lose all these trade agreements and all this uh multilateral agreements they're enjoying, the effect could be quite significant on the daily life of the cataman citizens, in terms of jobs, in terms of inflation, in terms of being able to collect money to go to the A T M and have Europe. So I mean, at the end of the day, Yeah, the question is is pretty much about the quality of life, and but what's the future they want in the region. Has anybody asked the leaders of the independence movement what their plans are for monetary arrangements, budgetary arrangements, revenue raising, bordering customs. Has anybody actually asked them that demanded that they explain. Well, there has not been a real campaign ahead of the votes, and I haven't seen anything where they really explained what they want. I've seen some declarations of some supporters of the catal and President Pride demon saying that they could resort to capital controls or to some form of economic quercation to make sure that the capital flows don't don't leave Catalunia. Um the question, obviously, I mean to me the business. Some banks, for example, have already left, right they moved their headquarters away from Barcelona and they put them in the valley Arres or in Madrid. So they already preventively made a move to make sure that they don't get disrupted in the business. But I think, yeah, the question for the Catalan government is are you ready to go all the way down this path and are you ready to assume the responsibility towards your citizens. I think this is the very central question here, Maxim before you go a thirty question, what makes Catalonia so special? I mean, why doesn't Bavaria want to break away? Why not Brooklyn secession? What's so great about the Catalonians? So Actually, the funny stories that Bavaria is actually a party that also advocates independence, but they only have a few votes right there. They're not big at all at the national stage or even at the regional state. Catalunia is from the history of Spain, from the Franco Hera, from the Civil War. It has in an identity, a cultural identity that is probably stronger than other regions in Europe. It is also of the Spanish GDP, and as I said, it's a net contributor to the national budgets. So there's a lot of for the for the independence is there's a lot of arguments if you line them up like this of saying we could actually do well just by ourself without the Spanish states and the Spanish authority. Again, this idea might be at first sight an interesting one, but if you go reading on the technicalities of this, if you would go all the way down that pass, you would lose, I think more than you would win by declaring independence. We'll have you back when Brooklyn declares independence. That's a yeah, Maxim. It was a pleasure having you on. Thank you so much for taking the time my pleasure. Thank you very much. Dan. What do you think of all this? To this answer your questions about whether anybody's thought of the real issues that have to be taken care of if a country actually becomes independent, I'm left with the impression that few people have contemplated, or at least articulated, what the machinery of night in an independent Catalonia would look like. It's all very well to wave a flag in a square and hauld a candle at midnight, But how does the business of government get done? It's not glamorous, but it strukes me that it's pretty essential. What you're saying seems like it could be applied to a lot of countries in the world today. On the other hand, this is how things happen in the world, how revolutions, how all these kinds of issues that we cover, you know, actually get done. It comes down to how people feel and then the actual machinery of government follows later. Benchmark will be back next week and until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot Com, our Bloomberg app, as well as on Apple Podcasts, pocketcasts, and Stitcher. While you're there, take a minute to rate and review the show. Some more listeners can find us and let us know what you thought of the show. You can follow me on Twitter at Scott Lanman Dan you are at moss under School, Eco, Maria is at at m A R I A T A D, and Maxim is at at m x s b A. Benchmark is produced by Sarah Patterson. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levy, thanks for listening, see your next time.

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