SHARESIES · MARKET UPDATE · Week of 21 September 2026
Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets

↑ WHAT'S UP — New Zealand was the standout, with the NZX 50 up 1.2% after Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.2% for the quarter, lifting annual growth to a two-year high of 2.6%. The Nasdaq also edged up 0.7%, even as the broader US market drifted.

↓ WHAT'S DOWN — The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the ASX 200 dipped 0.1%, with hawkish central banks and elevated oil keeping a lid on equities. Tech sentiment took a knock from an AI safety essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, which called for a slowdown in model scaling.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The Fed's 25 basis point hike came with a hawkish message, as Chair Warsh said he'd be "hard pressed to call current policy restrictive" and 16 of 18 officials pencilled in at least one more hike this year, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% to its highest since 2007. RBA Governor Bullock warned that August's flagged inflation risks are now arriving, lifting the odds of a September hike to around 85%.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter both make public appearances on Tuesday, before Thursday's August employment figures feed directly into the RBA's rate decision next Tuesday. Overseas, Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington begins Thursday, with AI high on the agenda.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Globally, things are still skewing hawkish, with the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all signalling or delivering tighter policy. Because US Treasuries anchor asset prices worldwide, a 10-year yield above 5% squeezes equity valuations everywhere by discounting future earnings more heavily. With oil still above US$100 and the RBA now odds-on to hike again, the tension between persistent inflation and stretched borrowers is only building.

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