SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 3 AUGUST 2026
Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies

Note: Filmed Monday 3 August

↑ WHAT’S UP — Equity markets snapped back, with the S&P 500 up around 1%, the Nasdaq up 1.6%, and the ASX 200 gaining 2.3% to break a falling streak. Rio Tinto shared strong results, while Microsoft and Amazon rose on Azure and AWS cloud growth.

↓ WHAT’S DOWN — The 30-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007 as investors demanded more compensation to hold amid lingering inflation doubts. Meta's earnings fell short on legal and AI infrastructure costs and Apple's record quarter was overshadowed by weak guidance. The NZX 50 bucked the trend, slipping 0.5%.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The Fed held rates steady despite three votes to hike, and again offered no forward guidance, leaving markets pricing a 65% chance of a September move. In Australia, June quarter CPI came in lower than expected at 3.8%, cutting the odds of an RBA hike by year-end to roughly 60%.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — More earnings this week, with SpaceX reporting for the first time as a public company, and AMP, ResMed and REA Group due locally. Friday brings July’s US jobs report, a key read on the labour market as the Fed weighs its next move.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — As long-dated yields hit a 9-year high, the bond market clearly doesn’t believe inflation is beaten. Investors are still responding cautiously to earnings, rewarding Microsoft and Amazon for proving that their AI spending drives revenue, while unenthused about results that don’t show a clear payoff.

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