This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw. 

The AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario: https://ai-2027.com/

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. 

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report&rsquo;s central flaw. 
The AI Futures Project&rsquo;s AI 2027 scenario: <a href="https://ai-2027.com/">https://ai-2027.com/</a>
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;
<hr>
Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.&nbsp;
Subscribe on Apple: <a href="http://apple.co/pushkin">apple.co/pushkin</a> Subscribe on Pushkin:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin">pushkin.fm/plus</a>

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/6c8975d9-db34-44be-906b-b2c2003e808b/transcript

Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. 

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst&mdash;the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;
<hr>
Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.&nbsp;
Subscribe on Apple: <a href="http://apple.co/pushkin">apple.co/pushkin</a> Subscribe on Pushkin:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin">pushkin.fm/plus</a>

Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/e5b05d0f-87d0-47d5-880a-b2d601356586/transcript

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. 

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;
<hr>
Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.&nbsp;
Subscribe on Apple: <a href="http://apple.co/pushkin">apple.co/pushkin</a> Subscribe on Pushkin:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin">pushkin.fm/plus</a>

The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/4794bdb6-96d4-4856-be30-b2cf015f266d/transcript

This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond?

Further Reading:

What if There’s No Way to Stop Trump’s Approach to Power? from Ross Douthat at the New York Times

Nate’s Silver Bulletin post about the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. 

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration&rsquo;s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high&ndash;but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond?
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/opinion/ross-douthat-interesting-times-jack-goldsmith.html">What if There&rsquo;s No Way to Stop Trump&rsquo;s Approach to Power?</a>&nbsp;from Ross Douthat at the New York Times
Nate&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/defending-democracy-is-easier-when">Silver Bulletin post</a>&nbsp;about the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;
<hr>
Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.&nbsp;
Subscribe on Apple: <a href="http://apple.co/pushkin">apple.co/pushkin</a> Subscribe on Pushkin:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin">pushkin.fm/plus</a>

The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/a20aa9c5-b9de-4f4d-ac76-b2c801695062/transcript

Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?

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