Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. 

Further Reading:

The Big Announcement

More on Thomas Schelling

More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. 
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/10/maria-konnikova-wins-bracelet-47131.htm">The Big Announcement</a>
More on <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Schelling.html">Thomas Schelling</a> 
More on <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/18/551792129/stanislav-petrov-the-man-who-saved-the-world-dies-at-77">Stanislav Petrov</a> aka the man who saved the world
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/073da426-9349-41b2-a826-b20c0018aa15/transcript

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. 

Further Reading:

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin 

The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg

A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro 

Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. 
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/should-kamala-harris-gamble-on-a">Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?</a> from the Silver Bulletin 
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-poker-bots-artificial-intelligence-russia/">The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker</a> from Bloomberg
<a href="https://en.pokerpro.cc/poker-news/a-further-investigation-into-the-existence-of-the-botfarm-corporation/">A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation</a> from Poker Pro 
<a href="https://www.legaluspokersites.com/poker-bots/">Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House</a> from Legal Poker Sites
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/4417676b-9229-4d4a-b9f3-b20301102f52/transcript

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.

Further Reading:

Charity Navigator

More on Betsy Paluck’s research

Willy Nelson’s discography

Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/">Charity Navigator</a> 
More on <a href="https://psychology.princeton.edu/people/elizabeth-levy-paluck">Betsy Paluck’s research</a> 
Willy Nelson’s <a href="https://willienelson.com/collections/music">discography</a> 
Dana Carvey’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4Z1M_GjhQ">Biden impression</a> from SNL
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

How to Win Bets and Influence Elections

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/06aee805-b1ef-4f21-a8a7-b1fe0013766f/transcript

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. 
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/317defbb-8738-4301-82b4-b1f6018b7b30/transcript

How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

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Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

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