Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season.

By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season.
By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdiRZh61zuwrQGGl8SNrJCW67WymMgn7_iQcXGpbrYlQsFTAQ/viewform">RSVP to attend</a>
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/e3128089-a8fc-451c-87c2-b23c01747734/transcript

Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations.

Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year!

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations.
Risky Business will be off next week. We&rsquo;ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year!
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;

Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/dfd94726-bfdd-4b29-956e-b24a0155482d/transcript

What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024.

Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year&rsquo;s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024.
Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener&rsquo;s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;

The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/eea895f0-d329-4d88-986f-b244002c6d6d/transcript

Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made.

Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions.

Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at riskybusiness@pushkin.fm with any suggestions.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made.
Then, Maria breaks down a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/01/business-school-fraud-research/680669/">scandal</a> in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions.
Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate &amp; Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:riskybusiness@pushkin.fm" data-stringify-link="mailto:riskybusiness@pushkin.fm" data-sk="tooltip_parent" aria-haspopup="menu">riskybusiness@pushkin.fm</a> with any suggestions.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/cadcf0b8-3e7a-4b4a-94ab-b236002ad9b3/transcript

Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies

In 1 playlist(s)

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips