Pushkin. I'm Maria Kannakova and.

Pushkin. I'm Maria Kannakova and.

I'm Nate Silver. Welcome to Risky Business.

I'm Nate Silver. Welcome to Risky Business.

A show about making better decisions. This is our first episode of the show, so I want to give you a little taste of the types of topics you can expect from us going forward. So we'll obviously be talking about politics and the elections since this is a major election year. We'll be talking about poker, We'll be talking about the news, and of course we're going to be talking about personal decisions. Right, how do you take this framework and make decisions in our day.

A show about making better decisions. This is our first episode of the show, so I want to give you a little taste of the types of topics you can expect from us going forward. So we'll obviously be talking about politics and the elections since this is a major election year. We'll be talking about poker, We'll be talking about the news, and of course we're going to be talking about personal decisions. Right, how do you take this framework and make decisions in our day.

To day lives conveniently almost as that we've planned this in advance. Our first show will cover all three of these areas. We'll have reflect with Maria on our recent poker success she had. We'll do a segment on RFK Junior and his effect on the presidential election, and we'll talk about Caitlin Clark and the economics of the pay gap and the WNBA.

To day lives conveniently almost as that we've planned this in advance. Our first show will cover all three of these areas. We'll have reflect with Maria on our recent poker success she had. We'll do a segment on RFK Junior and his effect on the presidential election, and we'll talk about Caitlin Clark and the economics of the pay gap and the WNBA.

So, Nate, let's get into it.

So, Nate, let's get into it.

So, Maria, was it last week? It's all kind of blurring together, but I think last week we were making the official Twitter slash social media announcement about Risky Business, the podcast and you were absent from that cluster of information we wanted to spit out because you were at the final table of a poker tournament. Good excuse, I guess tell us more about that.

So, Maria, was it last week? It's all kind of blurring together, but I think last week we were making the official Twitter slash social media announcement about Risky Business, the podcast and you were absent from that cluster of information we wanted to spit out because you were at the final table of a poker tournament. Good excuse, I guess tell us more about that.

Absolutely. So I was at EPT Monte Carlo, which is one of the flagship stops of the European Poker Tour, which is a Poker Stars event, and I was playing in the one euro side event and it was going pretty well. So at the time that I saw your emails and all of these announcements going back and forth, I was actually in the middle of a redraw for the final table and we were finally down to nine players. So I had, you know, a few brief moments to check my email when I saw of this and had to respond to you guys that. Unfortunately, I was going to have to be focused and not actually be paying attention to any social media announcements because final table is a pretty big deal.

Absolutely. So I was at EPT Monte Carlo, which is one of the flagship stops of the European Poker Tour, which is a Poker Stars event, and I was playing in the one euro side event and it was going pretty well. So at the time that I saw your emails and all of these announcements going back and forth, I was actually in the middle of a redraw for the final table and we were finally down to nine players. So I had, you know, a few brief moments to check my email when I saw of this and had to respond to you guys that. Unfortunately, I was going to have to be focused and not actually be paying attention to any social media announcements because final table is a pretty big deal.

How much were you playing for?

How much were you playing for?

So first place was, and this is all in euros, was eighty three thousand, one hundred and eighty euros, so that's almost ninety thousand dollars and ninth yeah, not bad. And then ninth place, which would be you know you're the first one out at the final table was eight nine hundred euros, so that's just over nine thousand dollars. So that's a pretty big difference.

So first place was, and this is all in euros, was eighty three thousand, one hundred and eighty euros, so that's almost ninety thousand dollars and ninth yeah, not bad. And then ninth place, which would be you know you're the first one out at the final table was eight nine hundred euros, so that's just over nine thousand dollars. So that's a pretty big difference.

That's why you weren't answering your emails.

That's why you weren't answering your emails.

That is why I was not answering your egail.

That is why I was not answering your egail.

You can be bought off for that is correct.

You can be bought off for that is correct.

Date, I had to be very much paying attention.

Date, I had to be very much paying attention.

Yeah, I think people in poker and neglect the importance so focused sometimes because it's such a there's a lot of noise, right, I mean it's in any given final table, it's kind of mostly luck. But like if you go jogging or running right and you're really hungover, you notice the effect on your time, Right, there's no noise there in the data in poker, you don't, But like, tell me more about the importance of focus of shutting out distractions, especially in a high stakes moment like this.

Yeah, I think people in poker and neglect the importance so focused sometimes because it's such a there's a lot of noise, right, I mean it's in any given final table, it's kind of mostly luck. But like if you go jogging or running right and you're really hungover, you notice the effect on your time, Right, there's no noise there in the data in poker, you don't, But like, tell me more about the importance of focus of shutting out distractions, especially in a high stakes moment like this.

Yeah, I mean I think that you really really need to be fully present because normally during a poker tournament, right, this tournament started with around six hundred players. I don't remember if it was a few fewer than that or a few more, but around six hundred, right, So at that point you're sitting at a full table, and I'm not going to say you can phone it in, but you don't have to always give it one hundred percent of your focus, because a lot of poker is actually pretty boring, right. You don't play a lot of hands, you have to fold a lot, you get a lot of shitty hands, and you don't actually want to be tempted to play those. So a lot of the time you have down time. And of course I'd love to say that I'm one of those players with laser focus who never has my phone at the table, who is always one hundred percent present, but that is simply not true. I mean, I would be just absolutely lying if I said that, And I think it's just very difficult for the human brain to do that. I've actually written a lot. My first book was about mindfulness and presence and focus and the importance of that and decision making. And one of the things you find is that's incredibly, incredibly taxing for the brain because the brain in its default state wanders, and so it takes a lot of effort to focus, and so you have to save that effort for the moments when it really matters. And the final table is one of those moments because you're playing for really high stakes and all of a sudden, every single pay jump matters. It matters if I'm out in ninth place versus eighth place, versus seventh, versus six. And just to add to the drama of this particular final table, I had had a really, really shitty series up to that point, and I knew that in order to kind of dig myself out from the hole that I was in financially, I needed to place third or better. That was the only way that I would make money on this tournament, and damned if I was going to let anything distract me from doing that.

Yeah, I mean I think that you really really need to be fully present because normally during a poker tournament, right, this tournament started with around six hundred players. I don't remember if it was a few fewer than that or a few more, but around six hundred, right, So at that point you're sitting at a full table, and I'm not going to say you can phone it in, but you don't have to always give it one hundred percent of your focus, because a lot of poker is actually pretty boring, right. You don't play a lot of hands, you have to fold a lot, you get a lot of shitty hands, and you don't actually want to be tempted to play those. So a lot of the time you have down time. And of course I'd love to say that I'm one of those players with laser focus who never has my phone at the table, who is always one hundred percent present, but that is simply not true. I mean, I would be just absolutely lying if I said that, And I think it's just very difficult for the human brain to do that. I've actually written a lot. My first book was about mindfulness and presence and focus and the importance of that and decision making. And one of the things you find is that's incredibly, incredibly taxing for the brain because the brain in its default state wanders, and so it takes a lot of effort to focus, and so you have to save that effort for the moments when it really matters. And the final table is one of those moments because you're playing for really high stakes and all of a sudden, every single pay jump matters. It matters if I'm out in ninth place versus eighth place, versus seventh, versus six. And just to add to the drama of this particular final table, I had had a really, really shitty series up to that point, and I knew that in order to kind of dig myself out from the hole that I was in financially, I needed to place third or better. That was the only way that I would make money on this tournament, and damned if I was going to let anything distract me from doing that.

One thing, too, is you kind of can't even like fake the focus part. There's a long discussion about this in my forthcoming book On the Edge. We're actually talked about an experience we had playing together Maria in the Bahamas where we were playing the twenty five k PSPC first time I played a twenty five thousand dollars tournament, and like, I was just really wired more than I wanted to be. You know, you're feeling your heart rate escalate a little bit, and when you're at a final table, then you are just inherently more in the zone, more alert that can be tuned too high. Sometimes. Part of the benefit of experience playing poker is that you know how to deal with that extra awareness and stress that you have. But you can't fake being interested on day one of some tiny buy in event two hundred blinds deep, right, but look, did you have any cool hands that you played?

One thing, too, is you kind of can't even like fake the focus part. There's a long discussion about this in my forthcoming book On the Edge. We're actually talked about an experience we had playing together Maria in the Bahamas where we were playing the twenty five k PSPC first time I played a twenty five thousand dollars tournament, and like, I was just really wired more than I wanted to be. You know, you're feeling your heart rate escalate a little bit, and when you're at a final table, then you are just inherently more in the zone, more alert that can be tuned too high. Sometimes. Part of the benefit of experience playing poker is that you know how to deal with that extra awareness and stress that you have. But you can't fake being interested on day one of some tiny buy in event two hundred blinds deep, right, but look, did you have any cool hands that you played?

I did have one, specific, one very cool hand, which really I think illustrates a lot of the principles of a final table. So I came into the final table as one of the shorter stacks, so there were a lot of people who had more chips than I do. And let's say, for a second just kind of do a little asterisk and talk about how that changes when you're kind of at the beginning stages of a tournament versus the final table. So, because as I mentioned before, there are these huge pay jumps, and you know, the monetary value really shifts depending on which place you get. Your chips are no longer worth what just what they say they are, and the ranges meaning the hands that you play change, how aggressive you want to be changes, and your strategy really really changes depending on whether you're a short stack, a middle stack, or a chip leader, right, whether you have a ton of chips. And the cool thing about my situation when I was the short stack is like I'm in last place anyway, so I can take risks and I can actually put a lot of pressure on other people because I still have enough chips that I can really really put a dent in what they're doing. So at this stage of the tournament, I think there were eight of us left and I started the hand with I think seventeen big blinds. Big blinds are kind of those fource bets that you have to make blind to get some action going. So the number of biglindes is just a good way to gauge how long you can go right without without playing a hand and how long you can survive. So I was in first position, first to act, and I had ace king, which is a really strong hand.

I did have one, specific, one very cool hand, which really I think illustrates a lot of the principles of a final table. So I came into the final table as one of the shorter stacks, so there were a lot of people who had more chips than I do. And let's say, for a second just kind of do a little asterisk and talk about how that changes when you're kind of at the beginning stages of a tournament versus the final table. So, because as I mentioned before, there are these huge pay jumps, and you know, the monetary value really shifts depending on which place you get. Your chips are no longer worth what just what they say they are, and the ranges meaning the hands that you play change, how aggressive you want to be changes, and your strategy really really changes depending on whether you're a short stack, a middle stack, or a chip leader, right, whether you have a ton of chips. And the cool thing about my situation when I was the short stack is like I'm in last place anyway, so I can take risks and I can actually put a lot of pressure on other people because I still have enough chips that I can really really put a dent in what they're doing. So at this stage of the tournament, I think there were eight of us left and I started the hand with I think seventeen big blinds. Big blinds are kind of those fource bets that you have to make blind to get some action going. So the number of biglindes is just a good way to gauge how long you can go right without without playing a hand and how long you can survive. So I was in first position, first to act, and I had ace king, which is a really strong hand.

So you're in here's a test through which are our audience members know about poker? You're in first position. That must be really good. You always want to be first.

So you're in here's a test through which are our audience members know about poker? You're in first position. That must be really good. You always want to be first.

What an interesting question, Nate. That is actually it's the polar opposite. So in poker and in decision making in general, this is actually a really really crucial point position, really really matters, and you actually want to be the last person to act. You want to be the last person to make the decision, which means you're in position. If you're in position, that means you get to see all the information beforehand and then you get to act. If you're out of position, that means that you have to go first, right, you choose what to do, but then all these other people see that and they have more information and they get to make a decision after you. So if you think about away from the poker table, like if you're in a salary negotiation, you do not want to throw out the first number.

What an interesting question, Nate. That is actually it's the polar opposite. So in poker and in decision making in general, this is actually a really really crucial point position, really really matters, and you actually want to be the last person to act. You want to be the last person to make the decision, which means you're in position. If you're in position, that means you get to see all the information beforehand and then you get to act. If you're out of position, that means that you have to go first, right, you choose what to do, but then all these other people see that and they have more information and they get to make a decision after you. So if you think about away from the poker table, like if you're in a salary negotiation, you do not want to throw out the first number.

Say you're negotiating terms for a new podcast about decision making.

Say you're negotiating terms for a new podcast about decision making.

Exactly, you want the other person to make the first offer, right because you do not want to accidentally low ball yourself or you know, you just you just want to know what the other person is thinking and then be able to respond to that. And so the positional advantages in poker are huge. So when you're in an early position, right when you're acting first, you have to actually be much more selective with the hand you play, and you have to be much more cautious because so many things can still happen. And I say this over and over, whether it's in poker or in decision making, because we're always playing games of incomplete information. Right, information is key. Information is power. The person with the most information has the edge, and so you want the edge and acting first ate it. So in this particular case, though, I have an amazing hand, so I'm going to open it. So that's what I do. And then two people who are acting after me decide that they're going to call, and they're both going to have position on me in the hand, So middle position calls and the button calls, and then the blinds fold. So what this means is that the only other two people in the hand are actually going to be deciding after me. And it's three ways, so that means that there's three of us, which means multi way, which is much more difficult to play. All right, So here we are ace King. Two people call and we get a flop, which is the first three community cards that everyone can see, and they are a Queen, a ten, and an eight and rainbow, and rainbow means that there are three different suits, so no possibility of a flush drawn.

Exactly, you want the other person to make the first offer, right because you do not want to accidentally low ball yourself or you know, you just you just want to know what the other person is thinking and then be able to respond to that. And so the positional advantages in poker are huge. So when you're in an early position, right when you're acting first, you have to actually be much more selective with the hand you play, and you have to be much more cautious because so many things can still happen. And I say this over and over, whether it's in poker or in decision making, because we're always playing games of incomplete information. Right, information is key. Information is power. The person with the most information has the edge, and so you want the edge and acting first ate it. So in this particular case, though, I have an amazing hand, so I'm going to open it. So that's what I do. And then two people who are acting after me decide that they're going to call, and they're both going to have position on me in the hand, So middle position calls and the button calls, and then the blinds fold. So what this means is that the only other two people in the hand are actually going to be deciding after me. And it's three ways, so that means that there's three of us, which means multi way, which is much more difficult to play. All right, So here we are ace King. Two people call and we get a flop, which is the first three community cards that everyone can see, and they are a Queen, a ten, and an eight and rainbow, and rainbow means that there are three different suits, so no possibility of a flush drawn.

None of the cards match your cards, Maria.

None of the cards match your cards, Maria.

That is bad Nate. So I decide to check, which is always a really really good decision when there are lots of people acting after you. And what checking means is I just say I'm not going to act now. I check to you, and you can do what you want to do. And so I check, and the middle position player decides to bet, and he bets pretty big. He bets four big lines and the button. So the other player in the hand calls, and so here I am. And at this point we have nine big lines in the pot right starting to start the hand, plus the eight that just went in, So that is so right, that's that's my stack because I had bet two before the before the flow. So basically this is huge. And what do I do right? If I call, there are still two people behind me, and it's a really huge chunk of what I have left, and I'm going to be in a really bad position if I don't improve. And so I decide to run a big bluff or semi bluff because I could improve, and I decide to shove all my chips in the middle. I go all in. And that's a very risky play because if either one of them has anything and calls me, I'm out of the tournament. They both have more chips than I do.

That is bad Nate. So I decide to check, which is always a really really good decision when there are lots of people acting after you. And what checking means is I just say I'm not going to act now. I check to you, and you can do what you want to do. And so I check, and the middle position player decides to bet, and he bets pretty big. He bets four big lines and the button. So the other player in the hand calls, and so here I am. And at this point we have nine big lines in the pot right starting to start the hand, plus the eight that just went in, So that is so right, that's that's my stack because I had bet two before the before the flow. So basically this is huge. And what do I do right? If I call, there are still two people behind me, and it's a really huge chunk of what I have left, and I'm going to be in a really bad position if I don't improve. And so I decide to run a big bluff or semi bluff because I could improve, and I decide to shove all my chips in the middle. I go all in. And that's a very risky play because if either one of them has anything and calls me, I'm out of the tournament. They both have more chips than I do.

Or you make your or you hit your jack or I hit my jack. Right, we call it a semi bluff because there are some ways. You know, the jack always makes you the best hand. You can sometimes hit two kings in a row. Occasionally one acer king makes you the best hand. Yep, So you have some equity in the podos I do.

Or you make your or you hit your jack or I hit my jack. Right, we call it a semi bluff because there are some ways. You know, the jack always makes you the best hand. You can sometimes hit two kings in a row. Occasionally one acer king makes you the best hand. Yep, So you have some equity in the podos I do.

I do have some equity, and I also have some fold equity, meaning I still have enough chips that my shove puts a lot of pressure on them. Right, So it's not like I'm shoving for four big blinds, which is what they already bet right, I'm shoving for a substantial amount more and the middle position player just folds instantly, which I was kind of relying on. So at a final table, especially, you will have been playing with these players for a long time several days in this case, and so you get to know their tendencies and how they play a lot more, and so you can make decisions that are much more fine tuned to these specific players. And so I knew that this middle position player was a recreational player who didn't really know what he was doing I'm sorry, and also really loved love to bet whenever anyone checked to him, like, I don't think he passed a single spot to bet, and he would just bet very random amount, so I was pretty sure he had nothing. And the person who was on the button was actually an old pro and he was someone who I'd been playing with for a while, and I knew he was very solid, good and very very capable of making big folds, which is crucial because after he calls with me to act behind, he has a good hand, right, he doesn't have just air, and so I need to be sure that this is a player who is capable of folding, because some players aren't. And so he starts tanking. And when someone goes into the tank that means they're thinking, and he is tanking and tanking and tanking, and the longer they tank, the likelihood that they're gonna call you goes up, right, So the longer he thinks here, I am sitting thinking, okay, well I guess I'm out of the tournament. And then finally he shows a queen and he folds his hand, so he folds top pair and I basically double my chips without any showdown whatsoever. And that was an absolutely crucial hand in the tournament because it gave me breathing room and it enabled me to make it to second place, which is what I eventually got. How much money Maria fifty two thousand euros.

I do have some equity, and I also have some fold equity, meaning I still have enough chips that my shove puts a lot of pressure on them. Right, So it's not like I'm shoving for four big blinds, which is what they already bet right, I'm shoving for a substantial amount more and the middle position player just folds instantly, which I was kind of relying on. So at a final table, especially, you will have been playing with these players for a long time several days in this case, and so you get to know their tendencies and how they play a lot more, and so you can make decisions that are much more fine tuned to these specific players. And so I knew that this middle position player was a recreational player who didn't really know what he was doing I'm sorry, and also really loved love to bet whenever anyone checked to him, like, I don't think he passed a single spot to bet, and he would just bet very random amount, so I was pretty sure he had nothing. And the person who was on the button was actually an old pro and he was someone who I'd been playing with for a while, and I knew he was very solid, good and very very capable of making big folds, which is crucial because after he calls with me to act behind, he has a good hand, right, he doesn't have just air, and so I need to be sure that this is a player who is capable of folding, because some players aren't. And so he starts tanking. And when someone goes into the tank that means they're thinking, and he is tanking and tanking and tanking, and the longer they tank, the likelihood that they're gonna call you goes up, right, So the longer he thinks here, I am sitting thinking, okay, well I guess I'm out of the tournament. And then finally he shows a queen and he folds his hand, so he folds top pair and I basically double my chips without any showdown whatsoever. And that was an absolutely crucial hand in the tournament because it gave me breathing room and it enabled me to make it to second place, which is what I eventually got. How much money Maria fifty two thousand euros.

Which is Zero's good? Now there's like one point one. Yeah, it's it's like.

Which is Zero's good? Now there's like one point one. Yeah, it's it's like.

Fifty six thousand something like that. Not as good as it would have been last year, but still pretty good. So one of the things that has been in the news lately and has really gotten me a little bit scared, to be perfectly honest, well, actually scared shitless would be a more precise technical term for how I'm feeling about it is how close this presidential election is, and the fact that with how close it is, we have suddenly these third part party candidates, and specifically I'm thinking about RFK Junior, who is actually pulling ridiculously well for a third party candidate, and makes me incredibly worried that there's a chance that you know, this person who has a brainworm or had a brain worm, I guess it's still in his brain so that he and his running mate the worm, who do not believe in a lot of things that are science based and who are members of the Kennedy family, that the two of them have a real chance of making a difference in states where the elections are close.

Fifty six thousand something like that. Not as good as it would have been last year, but still pretty good. So one of the things that has been in the news lately and has really gotten me a little bit scared, to be perfectly honest, well, actually scared shitless would be a more precise technical term for how I'm feeling about it is how close this presidential election is, and the fact that with how close it is, we have suddenly these third part party candidates, and specifically I'm thinking about RFK Junior, who is actually pulling ridiculously well for a third party candidate, and makes me incredibly worried that there's a chance that you know, this person who has a brainworm or had a brain worm, I guess it's still in his brain so that he and his running mate the worm, who do not believe in a lot of things that are science based and who are members of the Kennedy family, that the two of them have a real chance of making a difference in states where the elections are close.

Marie, can you please, yeah, pers I need to interrogate you. What state are you from?

Marie, can you please, yeah, pers I need to interrogate you. What state are you from?

I'm from Massachusetts.

I'm from Massachusetts.

Do you understand Americans the other four nine states don't give a fuck about the Kennedies and don't understand the entire Kennedy thing.

Do you understand Americans the other four nine states don't give a fuck about the Kennedies and don't understand the entire Kennedy thing.

No, Nate, I disagree. I disagree. I think the Kennedy thing is a huge thing, and it is a very big but yes, point taken.

No, Nate, I disagree. I disagree. I think the Kennedy thing is a huge thing, and it is a very big but yes, point taken.

Okay, let me give two other kind of points of context for the listeners, one of which is kind of like a meta abstract point. Right, Maria, you planned to vote for Joe Biden? Is that right? Yes?

Okay, let me give two other kind of points of context for the listeners, one of which is kind of like a meta abstract point. Right, Maria, you planned to vote for Joe Biden? Is that right? Yes?

Correct?

Correct?

And we're doing shows on politics. I think Maria is not going to make any hidden attempt to pretend that she's not a you know, don't know if you're a Democrat or not, but you're going to vote for Joe Biden. And I plan to vote for Joe Biden too. For what it's worth, however, I am not in these politics. I've been's going to make as many assumptions about what our audience necessarily thinks. Right. I hope we do have some Kennedy listeners and some Trump listeners whatever else. You're welcome to listen no matter what. But Maria is kind of going to be playing more of a partisan hat role, and I'll have more of a non partisan hat. So, and the second kind of assumption here is, I think you're assuming that Candy will draw more from Biden than from Trump, when I'm not so sure that's true. So in polls, Kennedy overall is at ten point two percent of the vote according to the five thirty eight average, which is the highest share of anybody since Ross Peruro in nineteen ninety six. If he wants up realizing that, well, debate in a moment how the numbers are more elected than not to fade. But ten percent is a serious chunk of the electorate. However, I mean, as you mentioned, Maria RFK Junior is not some liberal, progressive, pro science democrat with one of those yard signs we believe in xyz in front of in front of their house. He has some beliefs that the scientific consensus would not endorse about things like vaccines. For example, he is not to Biden's left on issues like abortion or Israel Palestine. He's to the right, although sometimes inconsistent in what he says, although at times he's been kind of linked with a libertarian nomination. Has kind of views all over the place on economic issues, a little hard to play, So he kind of seems to me like an anti establishment. You can say this nicely or not too nicely. Heterodox is a nice way to say it. Maybe kind of low information mix is a not so nice way to say it. Right to me, that reads like it's coming from the Trump pile as much as the Biden pile. And then the polls is all over the place. There are some polls where Candy draws more support from Trump, similar he draws more support from Biden. You could say examples, but you can have you can you know, every which way potentially in terms of the effect on November. By the way, there's also Cornell West and Jill Stein who are definitely running to Biden's left and are I think purely harmful to Biden. But I think look, if I'm Joe Biden, I have a lot of concerns right now, including the fact that I'm eighty one years old, the fact that you know, voters are still concerned about inflation, the fact that you have kind of a lot of pushback against the left. Now, I'm not sure if RFK Juniors had my top five concerns at the moment.

And we're doing shows on politics. I think Maria is not going to make any hidden attempt to pretend that she's not a you know, don't know if you're a Democrat or not, but you're going to vote for Joe Biden. And I plan to vote for Joe Biden too. For what it's worth, however, I am not in these politics. I've been's going to make as many assumptions about what our audience necessarily thinks. Right. I hope we do have some Kennedy listeners and some Trump listeners whatever else. You're welcome to listen no matter what. But Maria is kind of going to be playing more of a partisan hat role, and I'll have more of a non partisan hat. So, and the second kind of assumption here is, I think you're assuming that Candy will draw more from Biden than from Trump, when I'm not so sure that's true. So in polls, Kennedy overall is at ten point two percent of the vote according to the five thirty eight average, which is the highest share of anybody since Ross Peruro in nineteen ninety six. If he wants up realizing that, well, debate in a moment how the numbers are more elected than not to fade. But ten percent is a serious chunk of the electorate. However, I mean, as you mentioned, Maria RFK Junior is not some liberal, progressive, pro science democrat with one of those yard signs we believe in xyz in front of in front of their house. He has some beliefs that the scientific consensus would not endorse about things like vaccines. For example, he is not to Biden's left on issues like abortion or Israel Palestine. He's to the right, although sometimes inconsistent in what he says, although at times he's been kind of linked with a libertarian nomination. Has kind of views all over the place on economic issues, a little hard to play, So he kind of seems to me like an anti establishment. You can say this nicely or not too nicely. Heterodox is a nice way to say it. Maybe kind of low information mix is a not so nice way to say it. Right to me, that reads like it's coming from the Trump pile as much as the Biden pile. And then the polls is all over the place. There are some polls where Candy draws more support from Trump, similar he draws more support from Biden. You could say examples, but you can have you can you know, every which way potentially in terms of the effect on November. By the way, there's also Cornell West and Jill Stein who are definitely running to Biden's left and are I think purely harmful to Biden. But I think look, if I'm Joe Biden, I have a lot of concerns right now, including the fact that I'm eighty one years old, the fact that you know, voters are still concerned about inflation, the fact that you have kind of a lot of pushback against the left. Now, I'm not sure if RFK Juniors had my top five concerns at the moment.

So then, but in it all, that's at least right now, so close, right, So many polls have them just neck and neck, fifty to fifty more or less. Some have you know, Trump ahead, some have Biden ahead. You know, it depends on the state. But when we're talking about states that actually matter, So Nate, you vote in New York, and I voted in Massachusetts. Then I voted in New York. But now I actually get to vote in Nevada, which is a purple state and a state that is actually a swing state. So my vote finally matters. It actually matters who I am voting for. And in places like Michigan, you know, votes definitely matter. So in those cases, right in those states where every single vote is actually crucially important, do we think that collectively third party candidates, including RFK Junior, are going to be in a position where they actually might swing the outcome of the election.

So then, but in it all, that's at least right now, so close, right, So many polls have them just neck and neck, fifty to fifty more or less. Some have you know, Trump ahead, some have Biden ahead. You know, it depends on the state. But when we're talking about states that actually matter, So Nate, you vote in New York, and I voted in Massachusetts. Then I voted in New York. But now I actually get to vote in Nevada, which is a purple state and a state that is actually a swing state. So my vote finally matters. It actually matters who I am voting for. And in places like Michigan, you know, votes definitely matter. So in those cases, right in those states where every single vote is actually crucially important, do we think that collectively third party candidates, including RFK Junior, are going to be in a position where they actually might swing the outcome of the election.

So historically, third party candidates get less of the vote in swing states because voters, even before a podcast Maria, some voters were rational. They would understand that, like, if you're running in New York and you want to send a message to Biden and Democrats or the two party system by lending a vote to a third party, it's not going to actually affect the outcome in the election. If you're in Pennsylvania or Arizona or Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, then it might. And I think people like actually are are relatively rational about that. We've had in the last two elections what I call tipping point states, a fancy term for the states that make the differen between who gets two hundred and seventy electoral votes and not came down to a percentage point or so. So yeah, in theory, if you have a guy taking ten percent or let's say, because by the way, it usually does go down. Because right now, people kind of use RFK as like a free parking space for deciding what we'll do later to demonstrate their lack of satisfaction with these two very old men who are running again in a rematch. A lot of Americans do not want. Although Canny himself was I think over seventy years old.

So historically, third party candidates get less of the vote in swing states because voters, even before a podcast Maria, some voters were rational. They would understand that, like, if you're running in New York and you want to send a message to Biden and Democrats or the two party system by lending a vote to a third party, it's not going to actually affect the outcome in the election. If you're in Pennsylvania or Arizona or Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, then it might. And I think people like actually are are relatively rational about that. We've had in the last two elections what I call tipping point states, a fancy term for the states that make the differen between who gets two hundred and seventy electoral votes and not came down to a percentage point or so. So yeah, in theory, if you have a guy taking ten percent or let's say, because by the way, it usually does go down. Because right now, people kind of use RFK as like a free parking space for deciding what we'll do later to demonstrate their lack of satisfaction with these two very old men who are running again in a rematch. A lot of Americans do not want. Although Canny himself was I think over seventy years old.

He is, and he had a warm parasite the brain who ate part of his brain.

He is, and he had a warm parasite the brain who ate part of his brain.

Yeah, I mean, you know, look, I'm not sure what it told people that personally, if I if I have brainworms, I'm not going to do a brainworm segment on this.

Yeah, I mean, you know, look, I'm not sure what it told people that personally, if I if I have brainworms, I'm not going to do a brainworm segment on this.

He didn't.

He didn't.

He didn't.

He didn't.

It came up because he used it during a divorce trial, where let's just say so, I have a background in con artists. My second book was about con artists the confidence game, and con artists are known for telling people what they want to hear or what's strategically good in that particular moment, which has a high overlap with politicians in general. But during his divorce proceedings, RFK Junior was trying to argue that his cognitive capacity was greatly diminished and so his future earnings potential was a lot lower, so he had to pay less money during the divorce and would have to pay a lower settlement. So this was a matter of record, and journalists dug it up. And now of course he's saying, oh no, no, no, cognitive capacity not diminished at all. What are you talking about.

It came up because he used it during a divorce trial, where let's just say so, I have a background in con artists. My second book was about con artists the confidence game, and con artists are known for telling people what they want to hear or what's strategically good in that particular moment, which has a high overlap with politicians in general. But during his divorce proceedings, RFK Junior was trying to argue that his cognitive capacity was greatly diminished and so his future earnings potential was a lot lower, so he had to pay less money during the divorce and would have to pay a lower settlement. So this was a matter of record, and journalists dug it up. And now of course he's saying, oh no, no, no, cognitive capacity not diminished at all. What are you talking about.

We don't think he was lying in the divorce anyway.

We don't think he was lying in the divorce anyway.

He was lying in one of the two.

He was lying in one of the two.

The point is, if you had to project historically, so for example, Gary Johnson, the libertarian candidate, was polling at maybe around ten percent now or eight percent of remembering this offhand, and got more like five percent. Russfrow bounced around a lot in nineteen ninety two. He was at one point leading in the polls believed it or not, and then dropped out and then rejoined the race. God, I'm going off memory here, nineteen percent or something like that. So if you had to project where Candy will wind up, you've probably take an over under of like seven points and not ten. Right with that said, look, seven points will almost certainly be bigger than the margin of difference between Biden and Trump in a state like Michigan, for example, So if Kennedy were to take most of that vote from one side, that would be a problem for whoever lost those voters. But again, I think it might wind up being fairly even. And if the Biden campaign knows what's doing. I mean, you've seen actually Trump advisors begin to express more reservations about rfkus right as people learn more about him, they learn more about the vaccine stuff, they learn more about how he's not some typical liberal Kennedy. He may compete more with the kind of disaffected, sort of Trump voter archetype instead.

The point is, if you had to project historically, so for example, Gary Johnson, the libertarian candidate, was polling at maybe around ten percent now or eight percent of remembering this offhand, and got more like five percent. Russfrow bounced around a lot in nineteen ninety two. He was at one point leading in the polls believed it or not, and then dropped out and then rejoined the race. God, I'm going off memory here, nineteen percent or something like that. So if you had to project where Candy will wind up, you've probably take an over under of like seven points and not ten. Right with that said, look, seven points will almost certainly be bigger than the margin of difference between Biden and Trump in a state like Michigan, for example, So if Kennedy were to take most of that vote from one side, that would be a problem for whoever lost those voters. But again, I think it might wind up being fairly even. And if the Biden campaign knows what's doing. I mean, you've seen actually Trump advisors begin to express more reservations about rfkus right as people learn more about him, they learn more about the vaccine stuff, they learn more about how he's not some typical liberal Kennedy. He may compete more with the kind of disaffected, sort of Trump voter archetype instead.

So just to kind of sum that up, we're not sure at this point. We're not sure what's going to happen, but this is put a potential issue. So how you know, we're getting new polling data all the time. You know, the New York Times just released a big poll this week. How should we read the polls? How should we think about the polls going forward in the months leading up to the elections? Or should we just ignore them up to a certain point.

So just to kind of sum that up, we're not sure at this point. We're not sure what's going to happen, but this is put a potential issue. So how you know, we're getting new polling data all the time. You know, the New York Times just released a big poll this week. How should we read the polls? How should we think about the polls going forward in the months leading up to the elections? Or should we just ignore them up to a certain point.

At like this, if you're a Democrat, I'd be worried because Biden is losing the Trump right now, I wouldn't care so much about RFK Junior. It's like not my first concern. You know, you almost if you're losing Maria in a poker hand or something. You want more variants, You want more things that are in the mix. And right now, if you had an election today, Biden would probably lose at least in the swing state. So give me more RFK Junior. Right, the more worried you are about Biden's position overall, the more you should welcome chaos, I think.

At like this, if you're a Democrat, I'd be worried because Biden is losing the Trump right now, I wouldn't care so much about RFK Junior. It's like not my first concern. You know, you almost if you're losing Maria in a poker hand or something. You want more variants, You want more things that are in the mix. And right now, if you had an election today, Biden would probably lose at least in the swing state. So give me more RFK Junior. Right, the more worried you are about Biden's position overall, the more you should welcome chaos, I think.

All right, So with that I will welcome chaos. Welcome to the race, RFK and worm and let's see what happens. And as a Democrat, I hope that I don't need to hit the panic button quite yet, but I'm ready to just in case.

All right, So with that I will welcome chaos. Welcome to the race, RFK and worm and let's see what happens. And as a Democrat, I hope that I don't need to hit the panic button quite yet, but I'm ready to just in case.

Some Maria. A couple of weeks ago, my finance bro buddy texts me and says, do you want to go to the New York Liberty game in a couple of weekends? Right with his is a divorced dad with his young daughter, And I'm like, sure, you know, I mean, it was a little surprising in this particular friend of mine, not to profile too much, wanted women's basketball tickets, but he has a young daughter who's forty, so it kind of makes sense, right, And then I learned that it's the game against the Indiana Fever, which is the team that drafted Caitlin Clark, the superstar point guard from University of Iowa, who is maybe the most famous female basketball player in history, probably more famous than any amateur NCAAA men's player, at least as of the date of the NCAA tournament, and I was excited about this and any texts again and says, by the way, we're in. We're in the bleachers for this. And the reason why is that, unlike a typical New York Liberty game, the court side seats for this game costs tens of the utter made, not tens, but you know, high four figures worth of prices. The cheapest seats when I checked yesterday were about one hundred and five dollars with Ticketmaster fees. So that is actually more than a typical Brooklyn Nets game, right at least in the post Kevin Durant era, maybe not as much. Is like a Knixt game, the Knicks are a very popular in demand ticket but all of a sudden, women's basketball is when Caitlin Clark plays, drawing on a par with the NBA.

Some Maria. A couple of weeks ago, my finance bro buddy texts me and says, do you want to go to the New York Liberty game in a couple of weekends? Right with his is a divorced dad with his young daughter, And I'm like, sure, you know, I mean, it was a little surprising in this particular friend of mine, not to profile too much, wanted women's basketball tickets, but he has a young daughter who's forty, so it kind of makes sense, right, And then I learned that it's the game against the Indiana Fever, which is the team that drafted Caitlin Clark, the superstar point guard from University of Iowa, who is maybe the most famous female basketball player in history, probably more famous than any amateur NCAAA men's player, at least as of the date of the NCAA tournament, and I was excited about this and any texts again and says, by the way, we're in. We're in the bleachers for this. And the reason why is that, unlike a typical New York Liberty game, the court side seats for this game costs tens of the utter made, not tens, but you know, high four figures worth of prices. The cheapest seats when I checked yesterday were about one hundred and five dollars with Ticketmaster fees. So that is actually more than a typical Brooklyn Nets game, right at least in the post Kevin Durant era, maybe not as much. Is like a Knixt game, the Knicks are a very popular in demand ticket but all of a sudden, women's basketball is when Caitlin Clark plays, drawing on a par with the NBA.

I mean, that is crazy and quite the phenomenon. Just to be clear, I know the names of two female basketball players, Britney Griner for reasons that have nothing to do with her playing basketball and everything to do with the political crisis in twenty twenty two right where she was detained by Russia as a prisoner, and Caitlin Clark, and all of a sudden whenever something bleeps on my sports radar. And for people who don't know me, I am not a sports fan. I do not watch sports. I have actually never been to a single basketball game in my life though, name you say you want to? You want to? Yeah, yeah, so Caitlyn Clark has popped.

I mean, that is crazy and quite the phenomenon. Just to be clear, I know the names of two female basketball players, Britney Griner for reasons that have nothing to do with her playing basketball and everything to do with the political crisis in twenty twenty two right where she was detained by Russia as a prisoner, and Caitlin Clark, and all of a sudden whenever something bleeps on my sports radar. And for people who don't know me, I am not a sports fan. I do not watch sports. I have actually never been to a single basketball game in my life though, name you say you want to? You want to? Yeah, yeah, so Caitlyn Clark has popped.

Yeah, I bet the friend who's buy tickets this game could also name those exact two women's basketball play and maybe Sue Bird, maybe one or so other. Right, if you go, for example, to the next game at Barclay Center, the Seattle Storm at New York Liberty, I can buy a good seat for twenty one bucks. So, as of now, this is very much focused on the particular cultural phenomenon that is Caitlin Clark.

Yeah, I bet the friend who's buy tickets this game could also name those exact two women's basketball play and maybe Sue Bird, maybe one or so other. Right, if you go, for example, to the next game at Barclay Center, the Seattle Storm at New York Liberty, I can buy a good seat for twenty one bucks. So, as of now, this is very much focused on the particular cultural phenomenon that is Caitlin Clark.

Yeah. So obviously this is a huge deal. But then what I started reading about her, the stories that I encountered, were all about the contrast between how popular she is, right, what a huge audience and viewership she draws. And then we have her starting salary as at WNBA's number one draft pick, which is going to be seventy six thousand, five hundred and thirty five dollars. You know, I think that's crazy given that in the NCAA March Madness Final, she averaged well. Their game averaged eighteen point seven million viewers and peaked at twenty four million between ESPN and ABC, while the men's final averaged fourteen point eight million. Now, let's compare the salary of seventy six, five hundred and thirty five dollars to the lowest draft pick in the NBA, not the WNBA. The last pick in the first round of the NBA draft gets two million dollars in their first year. So that is quite the contrast to someone who has brought in record audiences to the sport. So there are two things that I want to talk about. So first of all, a lot of people point out, yeah, but her salary isn't it right. She's going to get endorsement deals, She's going to get branding deals, she's going to get opportunities that most women's basketball players or men's never get because she's a superstar. I want to talk a little bit about the superstar effect here. But then I do want to talk about that gender pay gap and the fact that we're seeing these absolutely huge differences between someone who's just a slam dunk top superstar and what a superstar would be getting in the NBA. So, Nate, do you have any initial thoughts on that, because I could start going and it's going to be hard to shut me up. So I'm going to let you get an word in Edge West first.

Yeah. So obviously this is a huge deal. But then what I started reading about her, the stories that I encountered, were all about the contrast between how popular she is, right, what a huge audience and viewership she draws. And then we have her starting salary as at WNBA's number one draft pick, which is going to be seventy six thousand, five hundred and thirty five dollars. You know, I think that's crazy given that in the NCAA March Madness Final, she averaged well. Their game averaged eighteen point seven million viewers and peaked at twenty four million between ESPN and ABC, while the men's final averaged fourteen point eight million. Now, let's compare the salary of seventy six, five hundred and thirty five dollars to the lowest draft pick in the NBA, not the WNBA. The last pick in the first round of the NBA draft gets two million dollars in their first year. So that is quite the contrast to someone who has brought in record audiences to the sport. So there are two things that I want to talk about. So first of all, a lot of people point out, yeah, but her salary isn't it right. She's going to get endorsement deals, She's going to get branding deals, she's going to get opportunities that most women's basketball players or men's never get because she's a superstar. I want to talk a little bit about the superstar effect here. But then I do want to talk about that gender pay gap and the fact that we're seeing these absolutely huge differences between someone who's just a slam dunk top superstar and what a superstar would be getting in the NBA. So, Nate, do you have any initial thoughts on that, because I could start going and it's going to be hard to shut me up. So I'm going to let you get an word in Edge West first.

As an mostly underpentent capitalists most of the time, I think the issues that the system is not capitalistic enough. Right, that Caitlin Clark does not have leverage to demand her marginal revenue product would be the way that an economist would put it, and that I don't agree. I mean just because she makes money from endorsement, so I mean, look, she should also have the right to make money based on the fact that she's bringing in five or ten times more ticket revenue than any other player in the w NBA. Right. One problem is that rookies and almost every sports league are on a salary scale where they're basically underpaid. Right. One reason why NBA teams tank, meaning intentionally trying to lose, is but because you cannot only get a player like Victor Womanyama for the Spurs. He was number one pick in the men's league, and the men's we have saying men's league in the NBA. He's also paid far less than he's worth, and it has to do with the dynamics of union bargaining frankly, and the fact that like established players to some extent, are screwing over rookies who do not have as much leverage in the player union. Also, a lot of rookies are bad. Sometimes rookies are playing for developmental reasons, so they tend to lack leverage in general, and that carries over to the WNBA. The other is she though, is that she is a big outlier as far as her market ability, even forgetting the rookie thing right, even if she weren't a rookie, the entire WNBA salary cap is like what like one point four million dollars I was looking up a moment ago. The entire salary cap is, yeah, one point four six three million dollars, which is less than what a single NBA rookie makes. Now, that's because WNBA historically has made much less revenue than the NBA. There are debates about whether it's even profitable or kind of like a loss leader for the league. But she that doesn't work for her, right, she should have some special provision where she probably is gonna make in Marshall revenue probably ten fifteen, twenty million dollars a year, and she's being exploited because if she decides she doesn't want to play or go plays in China or something, which is where she might ultimately have leverage, that is money out of the coffers of the Indiana Fever and also visiting teams like the New York Liberty that are you know, people are going there to see her. My friend's daughter will be wearing a Caitlin Clark jersey and not a New York Liberty jersey. So she's getting screwed over by by a lack of ability to kind of achieve what she's really worth.

As an mostly underpentent capitalists most of the time, I think the issues that the system is not capitalistic enough. Right, that Caitlin Clark does not have leverage to demand her marginal revenue product would be the way that an economist would put it, and that I don't agree. I mean just because she makes money from endorsement, so I mean, look, she should also have the right to make money based on the fact that she's bringing in five or ten times more ticket revenue than any other player in the w NBA. Right. One problem is that rookies and almost every sports league are on a salary scale where they're basically underpaid. Right. One reason why NBA teams tank, meaning intentionally trying to lose, is but because you cannot only get a player like Victor Womanyama for the Spurs. He was number one pick in the men's league, and the men's we have saying men's league in the NBA. He's also paid far less than he's worth, and it has to do with the dynamics of union bargaining frankly, and the fact that like established players to some extent, are screwing over rookies who do not have as much leverage in the player union. Also, a lot of rookies are bad. Sometimes rookies are playing for developmental reasons, so they tend to lack leverage in general, and that carries over to the WNBA. The other is she though, is that she is a big outlier as far as her market ability, even forgetting the rookie thing right, even if she weren't a rookie, the entire WNBA salary cap is like what like one point four million dollars I was looking up a moment ago. The entire salary cap is, yeah, one point four six three million dollars, which is less than what a single NBA rookie makes. Now, that's because WNBA historically has made much less revenue than the NBA. There are debates about whether it's even profitable or kind of like a loss leader for the league. But she that doesn't work for her, right, she should have some special provision where she probably is gonna make in Marshall revenue probably ten fifteen, twenty million dollars a year, and she's being exploited because if she decides she doesn't want to play or go plays in China or something, which is where she might ultimately have leverage, that is money out of the coffers of the Indiana Fever and also visiting teams like the New York Liberty that are you know, people are going there to see her. My friend's daughter will be wearing a Caitlin Clark jersey and not a New York Liberty jersey. So she's getting screwed over by by a lack of ability to kind of achieve what she's really worth.

Yeah, I mean that seems to be pretty clear and something that I didn't realize. So when you're talking about how you know, the WNBA is a young league, doesn't make as much money generally as the NBA, so you know the salaries are lower. But what I didn't realize was that the NBA players get fifty percent revenue share that's kind of what goes towards their salary, whereas the WNBA only get ten percent. So even if we account for the lower revenue of the WNBA, they're still getting screwed, right, They're still getting a much smaller percentage of the overall revenue share than the male players. And this, I think is something that is general to the league and not just to Kaitlin Clark, even though obviously we know Caitlyn's getting now doubly screwed because that superstar effect is not actually applying to her, right, it is applying to her in certain endorsement deals, but it's not applying to her when it just comes to her basic salary. And that pushes people like her, as you said, and like Brittany Griner to go play abroad where they might get detained because there's just no revenue opportunity in the United States.

Yeah, I mean that seems to be pretty clear and something that I didn't realize. So when you're talking about how you know, the WNBA is a young league, doesn't make as much money generally as the NBA, so you know the salaries are lower. But what I didn't realize was that the NBA players get fifty percent revenue share that's kind of what goes towards their salary, whereas the WNBA only get ten percent. So even if we account for the lower revenue of the WNBA, they're still getting screwed, right, They're still getting a much smaller percentage of the overall revenue share than the male players. And this, I think is something that is general to the league and not just to Kaitlin Clark, even though obviously we know Caitlyn's getting now doubly screwed because that superstar effect is not actually applying to her, right, it is applying to her in certain endorsement deals, but it's not applying to her when it just comes to her basic salary. And that pushes people like her, as you said, and like Brittany Griner to go play abroad where they might get detained because there's just no revenue opportunity in the United States.

Yeah, I mean, look, women's basketball has not historically had as much of an audience as men's basketball, particularly not outside of the US. So in the NBA. The European leagues are are relatively speaking more competitive, but in general, there are genetic differences between men and women, and those manifest themselves and things that are relevant to athletic competition, like who can jump farthest or run fastest or things things like that.

Yeah, I mean, look, women's basketball has not historically had as much of an audience as men's basketball, particularly not outside of the US. So in the NBA. The European leagues are are relatively speaking more competitive, but in general, there are genetic differences between men and women, and those manifest themselves and things that are relevant to athletic competition, like who can jump farthest or run fastest or things things like that.

Right, I'm gonna I'm gonna interject here to say that Kitlyn Clark was the top overall scorer in NCAA history, which includes men.

Right, I'm gonna I'm gonna interject here to say that Kitlyn Clark was the top overall scorer in NCAA history, which includes men.

But she's competing against women. I'm not gonna get away. No, that's that's a good point. I don't fine because she's competing against women and not men. But for the most part people, it's kind of socially constructed, Like why do people, for example, watch college basketball at all? Right, the games are much much, much worse than the NBA. It's because people like are not watching for the pure sake of athletic competition. And I think maybe a lot of mostly male decision makers underestimated their market ability of women's basketball, and now there's a big correction, and I think I think that players should demand their restructuring, like sooner rather than later. I mean, it may have been appropriate compensation given what the league's ratings were up until Caitlyn Clark, and now it's going to be in all likelihood different, and you know, they should use whatever marketing power they have to rectify that as soon as possible because now they are being underpaid.

But she's competing against women. I'm not gonna get away. No, that's that's a good point. I don't fine because she's competing against women and not men. But for the most part people, it's kind of socially constructed, Like why do people, for example, watch college basketball at all? Right, the games are much much, much worse than the NBA. It's because people like are not watching for the pure sake of athletic competition. And I think maybe a lot of mostly male decision makers underestimated their market ability of women's basketball, and now there's a big correction, and I think I think that players should demand their restructuring, like sooner rather than later. I mean, it may have been appropriate compensation given what the league's ratings were up until Caitlyn Clark, and now it's going to be in all likelihood different, and you know, they should use whatever marketing power they have to rectify that as soon as possible because now they are being underpaid.

Absolutely, And you said you said a phrase in there that I think is absolutely crucial, which is socially constructed, right. So I do think that a lot of this, a lot of the compensation, a lot of the historical differences. And this is not just true of basketball, This is just now, you know, more broadly speaking, when it comes to men versus women's gender pay gaps, et cetera, is a result of generations of socially constructed norms and what people you know, are doing versus not doing. And so I think that that's absolutely crucial to remember as we talk about, you know, moving forward, what is reasonable? What isn't it reasonable? Because even you know that fifty versus ten percent revenue share, now they can you know, can they push for fifty percent?

Absolutely, And you said you said a phrase in there that I think is absolutely crucial, which is socially constructed, right. So I do think that a lot of this, a lot of the compensation, a lot of the historical differences. And this is not just true of basketball, This is just now, you know, more broadly speaking, when it comes to men versus women's gender pay gaps, et cetera, is a result of generations of socially constructed norms and what people you know, are doing versus not doing. And so I think that that's absolutely crucial to remember as we talk about, you know, moving forward, what is reasonable? What isn't it reasonable? Because even you know that fifty versus ten percent revenue share, now they can you know, can they push for fifty percent?

Right?

Right?

Because that accounts for that accounts for the fact that there are differences. They're not saying we need to be paid as much money as the men. They're saying we want to proportionally be paid as much money as the men. And to me, that's absolutely reasonable. And you know, obviously I'm a woman and I've been on the I've been on the bottom end of the of the gender pay gap from you.

Because that accounts for that accounts for the fact that there are differences. They're not saying we need to be paid as much money as the men. They're saying we want to proportionally be paid as much money as the men. And to me, that's absolutely reasonable. And you know, obviously I'm a woman and I've been on the I've been on the bottom end of the of the gender pay gap from you.

Yeah, look, when you are charging one hundred bucks for a cheap seat for a regular season WNBA game in Brooklyn. That's real money. That really adds up there whatever eighteen thousand people in that stadium, and Caitlin Clark, you're going to sell out every arena as long as she remains healthy and isn't a total flop. That's real money, and the players who are generating that money deserve more of it.

Yeah, look, when you are charging one hundred bucks for a cheap seat for a regular season WNBA game in Brooklyn. That's real money. That really adds up there whatever eighteen thousand people in that stadium, and Caitlin Clark, you're going to sell out every arena as long as she remains healthy and isn't a total flop. That's real money, and the players who are generating that money deserve more of it.

Absolutely, And I think that we need to look more at that argument as opposed to their gender differences, because it's incredibly easy to get bogged down in that and then to start using that as an excuse. So in my own area, right, I'm a writer, I'm a speaker, and I happen to know with one hundred percent certainty because I've actually talked to people about this and compared that I get paid less for speaking engagements, I get lower advances, I get paid less a lot of the time than male counter perhaps who don't have a PhD. And by the way, I got that fucking PhD so that I could have those three letters behind my name, because as a woman, I need that in a way that men don't. Just like Caitlin Clark to achieve what she needed to, she has to be a million times more extraordinary than a man, right, like, that's what you have to do to get over that. And even still I have people who say, oh, you don't know what you're talking about in psychology, and they have an armchair degree, right, They've never studied psychology at the level that I have, and yet they say that to me all the time.

Absolutely, And I think that we need to look more at that argument as opposed to their gender differences, because it's incredibly easy to get bogged down in that and then to start using that as an excuse. So in my own area, right, I'm a writer, I'm a speaker, and I happen to know with one hundred percent certainty because I've actually talked to people about this and compared that I get paid less for speaking engagements, I get lower advances, I get paid less a lot of the time than male counter perhaps who don't have a PhD. And by the way, I got that fucking PhD so that I could have those three letters behind my name, because as a woman, I need that in a way that men don't. Just like Caitlin Clark to achieve what she needed to, she has to be a million times more extraordinary than a man, right, like, that's what you have to do to get over that. And even still I have people who say, oh, you don't know what you're talking about in psychology, and they have an armchair degree, right, They've never studied psychology at the level that I have, and yet they say that to me all the time.

Look as the kind of dumb sports pro between the two of us, Right, I somewhat object to how what you can map those differences in things like speaking gigs onto sports where there are more objective measures of performance. But I think like championing women's sports is like something that like young women and young men like. Right, the social norm around that changed fast. I mean I have heard more conversation about women's basketball from my sports breou friends in the past six months than I have in my entire lifetime before that, Right, And so I think encouraging that behavior, I mean, I think, for example, the Insane Tournament is a lot more fun. We need these kind of two tournaments going on together. You can bet, by the way, on on the women's game. I made a fair amount of money betting on women's college basketball this this march. That was that was you know, a way to get into the sport too for certain people. But lo, look, I think this is good, and I think Kate and Clark needs to demand demand that she is paid for the revenue she generates for the league because this whole thing wouldn't be happening. Maybe it's not true, maybe you'd have some other focal point, inflection point, but no, she should. We should have a whole march on the NBA offices on Park Avenue. Would have ever be like pay Kate and Clark more. I agree on that on that point at least, maybe not for the same reasons, but like I agree with the conclusion.

Look as the kind of dumb sports pro between the two of us, Right, I somewhat object to how what you can map those differences in things like speaking gigs onto sports where there are more objective measures of performance. But I think like championing women's sports is like something that like young women and young men like. Right, the social norm around that changed fast. I mean I have heard more conversation about women's basketball from my sports breou friends in the past six months than I have in my entire lifetime before that, Right, And so I think encouraging that behavior, I mean, I think, for example, the Insane Tournament is a lot more fun. We need these kind of two tournaments going on together. You can bet, by the way, on on the women's game. I made a fair amount of money betting on women's college basketball this this march. That was that was you know, a way to get into the sport too for certain people. But lo, look, I think this is good, and I think Kate and Clark needs to demand demand that she is paid for the revenue she generates for the league because this whole thing wouldn't be happening. Maybe it's not true, maybe you'd have some other focal point, inflection point, but no, she should. We should have a whole march on the NBA offices on Park Avenue. Would have ever be like pay Kate and Clark more. I agree on that on that point at least, maybe not for the same reasons, but like I agree with the conclusion.

All right, excellent. So we can agree on the conclusion and we can hope that when we're having this conversation again on episode one thousand and one of Risky Business, that we'll be able to look back and say thank you to Caitlin Clark for being kind of the catalyst for a revolution in the gender pay gap and how people compensate women.

All right, excellent. So we can agree on the conclusion and we can hope that when we're having this conversation again on episode one thousand and one of Risky Business, that we'll be able to look back and say thank you to Caitlin Clark for being kind of the catalyst for a revolution in the gender pay gap and how people compensate women.

For what they do.

For what they do.

Ki Business is hosted by me Maria.

Ki Business is hosted by me Maria.

Kannakova and me Nate Silver.

Kannakova and me Nate Silver.

The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter Our Executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Special thanks to Sarah Nix, Sarah Bruger, Eric Sandler, Kira Posey, Greta Cohne, Christina Sullivan, Kerrie Brody, Owen Miller, Farah Daygrunge, Jordan McMillan, and Jake Gorsky. If you like the show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too. Thanks for listening.

The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter Our Executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Special thanks to Sarah Nix, Sarah Bruger, Eric Sandler, Kira Posey, Greta Cohne, Christina Sullivan, Kerrie Brody, Owen Miller, Farah Daygrunge, Jordan McMillan, and Jake Gorsky. If you like the show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too. Thanks for listening.