Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver&nbsp;
<hr>
Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.&nbsp;
Subscribe on Apple: <a href="http://apple.co/pushkin">apple.co/pushkin</a> Subscribe on Pushkin:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.pushkin.fm/join-pushkin">pushkin.fm/plus</a>

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

An Elon Musk Report Card

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/bad9ccf1-9219-4cd8-b6b0-b2f20156b37a/transcript

Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world where conspiracies are sometimes real?

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration&rsquo;s sudden about face on the Epstein Files is ruffling feathers in his usually unruffle-able base. Will he be able to convince the true believers that there is, in fact, nothing to see here? And, how should we think about conspiracy theories in a world where conspiracies are sometimes real?
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/96ff786a-5683-4314-a5cd-b31c01746e9e/transcript

Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs?

This week, Nate interviews author and journalist David Zweig about his book examining COVID policies and school closure decisions during the pandemic. They get into why we tend to find cost-benefit analysis so difficult, how political polarization shaped decision-making during the pandemic, and how the COVID models failed.

Further Reading:

David Zweig’s book is An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed&mdash;even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from &ldquo;an abundance of caution.&rdquo; But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs?
This week, Nate interviews author and journalist David Zweig about his book examining COVID policies and school closure decisions during the pandemic. They get into why we tend to find cost-benefit analysis so difficult, how political polarization shaped decision-making during the pandemic, and how the COVID models failed.
Further Reading: David Zweig&rsquo;s book is <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262549158/an-abundance-of-caution/">An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions</a>
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/0966cafc-935c-4733-a8d6-b31501572ae4/transcript

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.

Further Reading:

From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility

From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani&rsquo;s recent win in New York City&rsquo;s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.
Further Reading:
From Adam Kucharski&rsquo;s newsletter, Understanding the unseen:&nbsp;<a href="https://kucharski.substack.com/p/possibly-a-serious-possibility?ref=thebrowser.com">Possibly a serious possibility</a>
From Silver Bulletin:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/zohran-delivered-the-democratic-establishment">Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved</a>
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/09282467-8021-4981-9fdb-b30f0019310e/transcript

An Elon Musk Report Card

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