Wages went up. So why does every household still feel worse off? Stephen Koukoulas, economist and founder of Market Economics, sits down with Mark Bouris to answer that question with numbers that are hard to argue with. Prices have risen around 14 per cent over the past three years. Wages have grown roughly 10 per cent. The gap is real, it is compounding, and it is sitting in every Australian budget right now. This episode goes well beyond the monthly headline inflation figure. Koukoulas and Bouris work through the mechanics of how falling property prices tighten bank lending, why services inflation in rent, insurance and council rates is proving so stubborn, and why the Reserve Bank's hands may be more constrained than most people realise. They also name something most commentators are reluctant to say out loud: that getting inflation back to 2.5 per cent may require a hard landing. If you want to understand what is actually happening in the Australian economy right now, and what it means for your mortgage, your savings and your job, this is the conversation to watch. Topics covered

• Why prices up 14 per cent and wages up 10 per cent leaves a real deficit in household purchasing power
• How bracket creep quietly takes a slice of every pay rise before it reaches your account
• The compounding effect: how $100 in groceries became $114 in three years
• Falling property prices, tighter bank lending and the self-reinforcing cycle that worries Koukoulas
• The 23 per cent jump in property listings and what it signals about seller confidence
• Why services inflation in rent, insurance, school fees and council rates is the stickiest part of the problem
• Copper, lithium and commodity prices as a hidden inflation driver most people are not watching
• The case for and against a recession as the only remaining path to 2.5 per cent inflation
• Whether the RBA's updated mandate on full employment has reduced its room to move
• What rising unemployment above 5 per cent would actually mean for households, banks and the federal budget

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