Will the RBA raise interest rates again in November, or is Australia's slowing economy a reason to hold?

In this October 2026 Monthly Economic Update, Mark Bouris sits down with economist Stephen Koukoulas to break down the latest Australian economic data ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's upcoming cash rate decision on Melbourne Cup Day.

With inflation pressures, rising unemployment, falling house prices and weak consumer confidence all shaping the outlook, Mark and Stephen examine the competing forces influencing the RBA's next move, and what the decision could mean for mortgage holders, property buyers, homeowners, investors and Australian businesses.

The conversation goes beyond interest rates to explore Australia's productivity problem, government spending, the cost-of-living squeeze and the economic risks that could shape the months ahead.

Stephen and Mark also work through the economic indicators the RBA considers when setting monetary policy, including GDP growth, inflation, wages, unemployment, house prices, retail sales and business investment.

In this episode of Property Insights, you'll hear about:

• RBA November cash rate decision: Is another interest rate rise likely, or could the Reserve Bank hold?
• Inflation and interest rates: How rising oil prices and global economic conditions are influencing the outlook.
• Unemployment and the labour market: What rising unemployment could mean for the RBA's next decision.
• Australia's productivity problem: Why productivity matters for wages, business costs, inflation and long-term economic growth.
• The cost-of-living crisis: How mortgage holders and households are coping with higher expenses and borrowing costs.
• Falling house prices: What the property market's performance could signal about household wealth and consumer spending.
• Consumer and business confidence: Why weak sentiment is an important warning sign for the economy.
• Government spending and the budget: Whether fiscal policy needs to change to strengthen Australia's economic outlook.
• Business investment and AI: How technology, data centres and investment are influencing productivity and GDP.
• What comes next for the economy: The key indicators to watch as Australia heads towards the end of 2026.

CHAPTERS

00:00 — Australia's economy: Why the outlook is weakening
01:18 — What is productivity, and why does it matter?
02:56 — How productivity affects business costs and inflation
05:27 — Why productivity matters for interest rates
06:50 — Measuring productivity in healthcare and public services
11:18 — Government spending and Australia's productivity challenge
13:16 — Technology, AI and the future of work
14:13 — Why private-sector productivity remains weak
15:34 — Construction, infrastructure and Australia's economy
34:50 — How GDP is measured and what the numbers miss
36:00 — Is Australia already in a recession?
39:46 — Cost-of-living pressures and consumer confidence
41:38 — Rising unemployment and the RBA's rate dilemma
42:26 — Are the economic indicators telling the full story?
43:25 — What another rate rise could mean for households and businesses
44:18 — Should the government do more to support the economy?
45:05 — Government spending and the budget outlook
47:55 — Defence spending and other major budget pressures
49:27 — Could better-targeted government support help households?
51:24 — The RBA's economic checklist: What matters most?
52:59 — AI, technology and measuring economic growth
53:46 — Wages, house prices and the labour market
55:14 — Business investment, data centres and GDP
56:39 — Falling iron ore prices and Australia's budget
59:16 — Is Australia's cash rate already restrictive?
59:55 — Stephen Koukoulas's view on the November RBA decision
1:00:56 — What financial markets expect from future rate decisions
1:02:32 — What to watch in the RBA's latest economic forecasts
1:03:44 — Final thoughts

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