New research conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has revealed primary vote support for the federal government has fallen to 40 per cent in NSW, down from 43 per cent, and 37 per cent in Victoria down from 39 per cent.

Labor has also lost ground in the two states since the election, down from 35 to 32 per cent in NSW and 37 to 35 per cent in Victoria, in a sign that some voters may have shifted their allegiance to smaller parties and independents until closer to the election.

Today on Please Explain, federal bureau chief Angus Livingston joins Nathanael Cooper to make sense of the numbers.