In this bonus-sized episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers uses a strange, wonderful case study — the collapse of artisanal bootmaking in 1850s England — to think through what AI will do to your work, your wages, and maybe even where you live. Economic historian Hillary Vipond found that even though a new technology let each worker produce four times as much, total bootmaking jobs barely budged. But two-thirds of the old occupations vanished and were replaced by new ones. The cordswainer disappeared; the factory foreman, machinist, and riveter arrived. In our moment, that's the translator seeing wages fall and the "prompt engineer" rising in their place.

The good news: a bigger pie usually means bigger servings for workers — China's incomes rose more than tenfold as it industrialized. The catch is pace. If AI really replaces half of white-collar work in five years, as some tech CEOs claim, that's a disruption bigger than COVID or the financial crisis. ustin's plain advice: become the most AI-savvy person in your workplace, keep your skills broad rather than narrow, and double down on the basics — because AI will not take your job, but someone using AI might. 

Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf

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