Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack.

Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the <a href="https://nodumbideas.com/">No Dumb Ideas</a> substack. Read More: <a href="https://bloom.bg/4bPmFsh">A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets</a> <a href="https://bloom.bg/4itFofz">Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now</a> Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" aria-label="http://Bloomberg.com" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking &amp; World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-testid="link-with-safety" data-renderer-mark="true">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

On Bloomberg&rsquo;s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/66214b56-da6f-4fb2-ab5c-b29f013bb2a1/transcript

In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil is sanctioned, a lot of it winds up at China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, which tend to be smaller and owned by independent companies. On the other hand, China has famously been building up its strategic petroleum stockpiles for years, and due to the rise of electric vehicles, they may have less economic sensitivity to the price of crude directly. On this episode, we speak with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Erica has a long background studying Chinese energy policy and she talks to us about the potential cost that the war is imposing on China’s economy, why the country has built up such a big buffer stock in the first place, and how this global oil shock could ultimately play to its advantage.

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In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran&rsquo;s oil is sanctioned, a lot of it winds up at China&rsquo;s so-called &ldquo;teapot&rdquo; refineries, which tend to be smaller and owned by independent companies. On the other hand, China has famously been building up its strategic petroleum stockpiles for years, and due to the rise of electric vehicles, they may have less economic sensitivity to the price of crude directly. On this episode, we speak with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Erica has a long background studying Chinese energy policy and she talks to us about the potential cost that the war is imposing on China&rsquo;s economy, why the country has built up such a big buffer stock in the first place, and how this global oil shock could ultimately play to its advantage.
<a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-link-cookie="1" data-destination="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-destination="https://discord.gg/oddlots">discord.gg/oddlots</a>

What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/6e543d48-a84e-4ddf-b699-b40b016d6f82/transcript

We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Israel has reportedly been hacking traffic lights in Tehran, and this week brought a suspected Iranian cyberattack on US medical device company Stryker, all underscoring long-held fears that hackers could take aim at vital physical infrastructure. On this episode, we speak with Matt Suiche, the legendary French hacker and founder of OnDB, a data infrastructure startup for agentic AI. We discuss what we know of Iran’s cyber capabilities, what digital warfare looks like today, and how AI is transforming coding and hacking.

Read more:
Stryker Remains Offline After Cyberattack Linked to Iran Group
Google to Provide Pentagon With AI Agents for Unclassified Work

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation:discord.gg/oddlots

We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Israel has reportedly been hacking traffic lights in Tehran, and this week brought a suspected Iranian cyberattack on US medical device company Stryker, all underscoring long-held fears that hackers could take aim at vital physical infrastructure. On this episode, we speak with Matt Suiche, the legendary French hacker and founder of OnDB, a data infrastructure startup for agentic AI. We discuss what we know of Iran&rsquo;s cyber capabilities, what digital warfare looks like today, and how AI is transforming coding and hacking.
Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/medical-tech-firm-stryker-hacked-pro-iran-group-claims-credit?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Stryker Remains Offline After Cyberattack Linked to Iran Group</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/google-to-provide-pentagon-with-ai-agents-for-unclassified-work?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Google to Provide Pentagon With AI Agents for Unclassified Work</a>
Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">http://Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>
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Legendary Hacker Matt Suiche on Cyberwar in the Age of AI

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/59308efc-3576-4375-8cf2-b40b00329583/transcript

We all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking. But it’s also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers like urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products that are essential for food production. This is all happening at the worst possible time — just before the spring planting season, when fertilizer is most needed. And while farmers have seen higher spot prices for things like urea before, notably back in 2022, there are already signs that this crisis might be worse. So how is fertilizer actually made? And what do higher fertilizer costs mean for farmers and for food prices? On this episode we speak with Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team.

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We all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking. But it&rsquo;s also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers like urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products that are essential for food production. This is all happening at the worst possible time &mdash; just before the spring planting season, when fertilizer is most needed. And while farmers have seen higher spot prices for things like urea before, notably back in 2022, there are already signs that this crisis might be worse. So how is fertilizer actually made? And what do higher fertilizer costs mean for farmers and for food prices? On this episode we speak with Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team. <a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-link-cookie="1" data-destination="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-destination="https://discord.gg/oddlots">discord.gg/oddlots</a>

War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/4e5e7c1f-739e-4feb-b9ba-b409016c9734/transcript

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

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