More than a decade ago, GMO strategist James Montier published a paper predicting that corporate profit margins were destined to come down from "nosebleed" levels. Fast forward to 2023, and it's clear that hasn't happened as profit margins remain far above their long-term average. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Montier explains what he got wrong back in 2012, why corporate profits have remained so stubbornly high, and what this could mean for stock valuations now. He also discusses the ongoing debate over whether high corporate earnings are fueling inflation, as well as revisiting the work of economist Michael Kalecki.

More than a decade ago, GMO strategist James Montier published a paper predicting that corporate profit margins were destined to come down from "nosebleed" levels. Fast forward to 2023, and it's clear that hasn't happened as profit margins remain far above their long-term average. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Montier explains what he got wrong back in 2012, why corporate profits have remained so stubbornly high, and what this could mean for stock valuations now. He also discusses the ongoing debate over whether high corporate earnings are fueling inflation, as well as revisiting the work of economist Michael Kalecki.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday. 

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

James Montier Explains Why Corporate Profits Keep Going Up

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/808390a7-513d-4de7-b968-b02a012999bf/transcript

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors. Farmers often say they are taking on most of the risk of raising chicks, while the big poultry companies get most of the upside. And this model of farming is becoming more popular in other agricultural areas too. So what does the way chickens are produced say about the labor market, the way it’s structured, and the distribution of risk and profits? We speak with chicken growers, agricultural experts, and more. 



Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors. Farmers often say they are taking on most of the risk of raising chicks, while the big poultry companies get most of the upside. And this model of farming is becoming more popular in other agricultural areas too. So what does the way chickens are produced say about the labor market, the way it’s structured, and the distribution of risk and profits? We speak with chicken growers, agricultural experts, and more. 
 
Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/podcastoffer?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=Podcast&amp;utm_campaign=OddLots">bloomberg.com/podcastoffer</a>. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/channel/bloomberg/id6442484579">Bloomberg channel page</a> in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.

Beak Capitalism, Part 2: The Chickenization of Everything

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/02420f31-c747-4ec6-9626-b22801661de2/transcript

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we’re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something like a hot wing or an egg? And what can chicken tell us about the way we think of inflation? We speak with prominent economists, analysts, CEOs, and even a chicken sandwich war correspondent, to discuss. It’s time for Squawk Lots! 



Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we’re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something like a hot wing or an egg? And what can chicken tell us about the way we think of inflation? We speak with prominent economists, analysts, CEOs, and even a chicken sandwich war correspondent, to discuss. It’s time for Squawk Lots! 
 
Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/podcastoffer?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=Podcast&amp;utm_campaign=OddLots">bloomberg.com/podcastoffer</a>. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/channel/bloomberg/id6442484579">Bloomberg channel page</a> in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.

Beak Capitalism, Part 1: Chickflation

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/c5c40579-457e-4651-84f8-b2280167b2a8/transcript

Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncertain from here on out. Inflation has been softening this year, but there’s a sense that this trend could turn — especially with the Trump administration coming in after the new year. All of this raises the question of what the Fed does next, and how it’s approaching near-term data versus the longer-term outlook for the economy. At the same time, Trump has had vocal disagreements with Chair Jerome Powell over the path of monetary policy and the role of the central bank, which adds more uncertainty. On this episode, we speak with former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, now an economic advisor at Pimco and a professor of economics at Columbia University, about where the Fed goes from here.

Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.

Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncertain from here on out. Inflation has been softening this year, but there’s a sense that this trend could turn — especially with the Trump administration coming in after the new year. All of this raises the question of what the Fed does next, and how it’s approaching near-term data versus the longer-term outlook for the economy. At the same time, Trump has had vocal disagreements with Chair Jerome Powell over the path of monetary policy and the role of the central bank, which adds more uncertainty. On this episode, we speak with former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, now an economic advisor at Pimco and a professor of economics at Columbia University, about where the Fed goes from here.
Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/podcastoffer?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=Podcast&amp;utm_campaign=OddLots">bloomberg.com/podcastoffer</a>. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/channel/bloomberg/id6442484579">Bloomberg channel page</a> in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.

Richard Clarida on This Tricky Moment for the Federal Reserve

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/84e247c2-d03e-464b-89e2-b22701609659/transcript

James Montier Explains Why Corporate Profits Keep Going Up

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