The US-Iran conflict has entered a more dangerous phase, with attacks widening across the region, oil prices surging past US$105 a barrel and uncertainty growing over the Strait of Hormuz. Inside Iran, sanctions, fuel rationing and shortages are adding to economic pressure, while the IAEA’s decision to refer Tehran to the UN Security Council raises the stakes over its nuclear programme. With President Trump suggesting the war could continue until after the US midterm elections, what is Iran’s strategy now, and is there still a path towards de-escalation?

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