Indonesia’s economy grew by more than 5% in the first half of 2026, but strong headline growth has yet to convince financial markets. Capital outflows, a weakening rupiah and concerns over President Prabowo’s expansionary fiscal policies have forced Bank Indonesia into aggressive rate hikes, while higher fuel costs and the threat of El Niño add further pressure. Can Southeast Asia’s largest economy maintain its growth momentum while repairing investor confidence and keeping its fiscal ambitions in check?

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