This week, we’re joined by Barbara Kelemen, Head of Asia at Dragonfly, to unpack the Strategic Outlook 2026—a comprehensive intelligence assessment of the geopolitical and security risks shaping the year ahead. In a world where power is increasingly fragmented and spheres of influence overlap, Dragonfly describes 2026 as a “multisphere world,” one defined by fluid alliances, rising competition, and heightened uncertainty.

Barbara walks us through the report’s headline forecasts, including record global defence spending, the rise of geoeconomic coercion, and the growing threat of adversarial AI. She also explains why climate inaction is accelerating cascading crises, and how contested space—literally—has become a new frontier for strategic rivalry.

Region by region, we explore the flashpoints to watch: political polarization in the Americas, the volatile Taiwan Strait, Europe’s ongoing confrontation with Russia, persistent instability in the Middle East and North Africa, and the convergence of conflict and climate stress in Sub‑Saharan Africa. Singapore and other regional powers also feature in the report’s analysis of evolving defence postures.